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obsessivegiantscompu
obsessivegiantscompu

Nice analysis of Pablo. I disagree with describing his 2010 as utterly miserable. Utterly disappointing, sure, but his numbers overall was around that of an average 3B. Miserable would be an under .700 OPS (which admittedly he was close to), utterly probably under .600 OPS. I would also add that while .382 BABIP was not sustainable, it was not that far away from the roughly .350+ BABIP he had so far attained in the majors, so a drop in BABIP to that range would have still left him comfortably in the low 900 OPS to high 800 OPS range, depending on whether his power suffered too. Great dissection and explanation of the meaning of his strikeout rate being higher this season. That makes a lot of sense, I was reacting to that negatively, but I did not notice the big uptick in pitches taken. Many fans complained about his 2010 season, saying his fat and lack of plate discipline costed him, but if you look at his walk rate and strikeout rate, one could hide the years and present both pairs and most people would not be able to tell which belonged to which year, meaning that there was no effect on his plate discipline. His major negatives in 2010 was 1) his severe drop in BABIP, 2) his severe drop in power, and 3) his severe drop batting against LHP. I think he will easily beat any of the projections given him, that is why projections, while good for mass analysis, falls down when you have analysts who can dig beyond the numbers. I think his surge in power is an excellent sign that he is back to where he was in 2009, if not better, and your points here convince me even further. And did you see that tag of the runner where he leapt and flew to tag the guy out? (ELM linked to it in one of his posts) No way he does that in 2010. It is a testament to how much better shape he is this season vs. 2010, of what he can now do on the basepaths and as a defender.