What better day is there, other than Opening Day, to have what can only be described as blind optimism? Easy. It’s Opening Day… after winning the World Series for the first time in 53 San Francisco seasons. I know, I know, you’re tickled. Me too.
Yesterday, I concluded that Brandon Belt would make his major league debut tonight at Chavez Ravine against Clayton Kershaw, and I was pretty okay with the notion. I was right. What a powder-puff first assignment. I mean, Kershaw isn’t that much like Sandy Koufax.
Let’s get into it.
Team by team in order of relevance:
1. (World Series defending champion) San Francisco Giants / (90-72)
Why the Giants will win the NL West:
The Giants return the pitching staff that won them a World Series, and Madison Bumgarner will be pitching in the five slot this season from the beginning, not Todd Wellemeyer. The Phillies have the best rotation, sure, but the Giants’ bullpen is superior, which helps to close the gap between the two best staffs in baseball.
Offensively, the Giants are not a Juggernaut. But, they have three young, middle-of-the-order hitters in Belt, Posey and Sandoval, each of which is fully capable of littering the bleachers with baseballs on occasion and spraying the field pole to pole. A full season of Posey should help their numbers from a season ago – and cancel out some of the expected regression of Pat Burrell, Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres. Torres, Belt, Posey, Huff and Burrell help to compose more than half of a lineup that has a patient, disciplined approach; that’s a far cry from what we could say the past few seasons on Opening Day. Sandoval is a bounce-back, breakout candidate after losing 40 pounds. This is likely the most balanced lineup in the division.
With the leather, the Giants will have an outstanding centerfielder in Andres Torres, and they’ll need it so long as Burrell and Huff are manning left and right field. At catcher, Posey could improve in all facets defensively, and especially he’ll help to stifle the running game of the opposition; something the Giants didn’t have for roughly three months in 2010. The infield looks solid to excellent on the right-hand side, not so much on the left. Sandoval’s defensive woes are overblown; I expect him to be average. Tejada is a concern at short but it’ll help some considering the Giants have a strikeout, fly-ball staff. Keep an eye on Madison Bumgarner’s average on balls in play (BABiP); he’s the candidate most likely to be harmed by a no-range infield.
How they could fall short:
As with any team, a host of injuries could throw the breaks on another division title. And with this team, it might take but one or two to really hurt them. With a lack of starting pitching depth, even the loss of a mediocre arm like Barry Zito could hurt a lot. The loss of Cain or Lincecum could (and probably would, at least psychologically) be devastating. In addition to that worry, Miguel Tejada could be a disaster at shortstop, but we won’t know for sure just yet. And there are huge expectations being placed on Brandon Belt; they’re unrealistic. If he posted a line of .270/.350/.450, that’d be just fine with his glove and baserunning. But if he doesn’t hit at all, it might be tough for an extra two months of Posey’s bat and Sandoval’s improvement to cancel out the regression in others.
Now, the rest of the division…
T2. Colorado Rockies / (86-76)
Why they’ll fall short:
The Rockies were, as is customary for them, terrible on the road in 2010. They were, however, outstanding at home. That’s their obstacle – they need to play .500 outside of Humidor Field. There’s something of a hangover effect for their hitters every time they aren’t playing at home, and that goes a long way to explaining Carlos Gonzalez’s puzzling splits from 2010. Speaking of CarGon, outside of him and Troy Tulowitzki, their lineup is filled with overpaid veterans like Todd Helton and guys that remind me of my grandpa’s favorite saying: wish in one hand and spit in the other, then tell me which one fills up faster (Jose Lopez and Ty Wiggington fall squarely into this category).
Their rotation is very good, anchored by Ubaldo Jimenez. Behind him, Jorge de la Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel are all quality pitchers. Their ‘pen is pretty quality, too. I just don’t think it’ll be enough to overcome their two-bullet offense.
How they could be a threat:
They have a sneaky way of getting white hot down the stretch. Also, Tulowitzki and Gonzalez are a potential two-man wrecking crew, regardless of the rest of their lineup. If Tulo can play over 150 games, it’d do a lot to bolster their chances. If Gonzalez can hit on the road – and I think he will, at least more than last season – watch out for this club.
T2. Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76)
Why they’ll fall short:
The divorce saga of the McCourt’s is still hanging over the franchise. Exhibit A was when, recently, Andre Ethier thought it appropriate to say he might not be a Dodger next season, that he saw himself as a DFA (designate for assignment) candidate. Running that through my player translator: “Please, please, PLEASE get me out of here.”
The Dodgers’ pitching staff is very quality, assuming the injuries of Jon Garland and Vicente Padilla don’t linger. Their bullpen is excellent as well with Hong-Chih Kuo and, if Jonathan Broxton gets back to where he was, well, there’s that too. Still, it won’t be enough with their pretty-terrible lineup. The pitching just isn’t as good as the Giants’ and the lineup is definitely a tier below. They’ll be missing Carlos Santana for years to come. Meanwhile, not-so-great-compared-to-Santana (and a lot of other ballplayers) Casey Blake is hurt.
How they could be a threat:
Their rotation really is quite good, with Kershaw the ballast of it – he’s a perennial Cy Young candidate waiting to happen. And Matt Kemp will never go and catch it in center like his cursory Gold Glove award in 2009 would have suggested, but he might just get back to being an offensive force – and don’t sleep on him as a stolen base threat with Davy Lopes joining the fold in Hollywood.
4. San Diego Padres / (82-80)
Why they’ll fall short:
This one is kind of obvious, but the only scary hitter in their lineup is now a Red Sox – I’m of course talking about strong AL MVP candidate, Adrian Gonzalez. In their defense, they got a nice haul in return. Unfortunately for the sun-baked fans in San Diego, they won’t reap the rewards from it right away.
Also in their defense, Jed Hoyer got right to it and had a really good offseason in acquiring Jason Bartlett and signing Orlando Hudson; that should be a solid up-the-middle component. They also grabbed Cameron Maybin for very little as the Fish washed their hands of the deal that acquired him. He should instantly provide value defensively in their massive outfield at Petco. If he hits like we thought he would when he was a Triple-A star, he’ll be a fantastic fetch. I think grabbing Brad Hawpe for so little when his value was way down was a swell idea, too. It might not work out, but it was sure worth a try. All in all, though, if Ryan Ludwick is your best hitter, you’re in trouble.
Mat Latos’ shoulder is ailing. Plus, I’m of the belief their rotation, as a whole, overachieved for much of last season.
How they could be a threat:
If Mat Latos’ arm gets right in a hurry, he’s a Cy Young candidate. They also still have that shutdown bullpen that every team wishes they had. Most of all, they just find a way to win a lot of tight games at home, especially when the Giants are in town. Hoyer made a lot of little and marginal moves that could bring this club back somewhere close to where they were a year ago. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they somehow managed to be MLB’s big surprise… again.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks / (72-90)
Why they’ll fall short:
Justin Upton is a fantastic player and will have a great season. Stephen Drew is a great, young shortstop in a sport that simply doesn’t have many of them right now. Unfortunately, Drew will get unloaded before the deadline and they’ll never be a factor.
They have some pretty decent young starting pitchers but the bottom falls out after that. And Towers just doesn’t have enough time to put together one of his patented bullpens to help.
How they could be a threat:
What really has me concerned abo
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Here’s the roster:
C: Buster Posey, Eli Whiteside
IF: Brandon Belt, Freddy Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, Miguel Tejada, Mike Fontenot, Mark DeRosa
OF: Pat Burrell, Andres Torres, Aubrey Huff, Nate Schierholtz, Aaron Rowand
P: Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Madison Bumgarner, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez, Ramon Ramirez, Dan Runzler, Guillermo Mota
And in case you haven’t had your proper fill on the Giants – and I know you have not – here are three reasonable, best-case scenarios from the exemplary Otis Anderson:
Madison Bumgarner is Who We Thought He Was
When MadBum made his professional debut, he posted numbers that made everyone get their hopes up for Lincecum 2.0. Over 2009 and early 2010, that hope started to fade along with his fastball and ability to miss bats at higher levels. Then the Giants tinkered with his mechanics a little, and the velocity came back. Not only did he not embarass himself in his rookie season, he had moments where he made dangerous right-handers (like Vlad Guerrero ) think long and hard about what a terrible and unfair game baseball is. I think it’s a stretch to draw any conclusions from what he did last year and just extrapolate it to this year, but there certainly lurks the possibility that the Madison Bumgarner that has those mechanics and velocity is the ace-level pitcher that everyone saw him as when he first arrived.
Tim Lincecum Rediscovers His HR/FB Magic
Tim Lincecum‘s 2010 was a down year only by the high standards he had previously set for himself. His performance, though wasn’t actually that far off from his previous Cy Young campaign, except in a few key respects. His strikeout rate declined slightly, his walk rate increased and his HR rate doubled. I think the home runs were really what caused the spike in his ERA. Before 2010, Lincecum had thrown two seasons in a row with Matt Cain-like 5.5% HR/FB ratio. Last season, the regression furies caught up with him and the result was 18 home runs, 6 higher than his previous worst. If Lincecum can once again harness that old black magic, he can have another Cy Young calibre season.
Grady Sizemore Does Not Locate Andres Torres and Demand His Career Back
I don’t know how well it is generally appreciated what Andres Torres meant to the 2010 Giants. First, he was a premium defending outfielder on a staff that mostly traffics in fly-balls. Also, if you scroll through the walk-off hits section of the Giants season wrap DVDd, you’ll see that Torres is in the middle of nearly all of them – a walk off double here, scoring from third on a sacrifice there. The abrupt nature of his transformation means that he’ll always have his doubters. Combine this with the fact that his strikeouts are numerous enough that in a down year he’ll hit .220 and you have to conclude that we should enjoy him while he’s here. But that doesn’t have to be this year. Torres’s glove makes it’s own case – he’s got the kind of range that needs no eyewash to sell his defense. But if his bat stays at even acceptable levels he’ll continue to quietly be one of the Giant’s most valuable players.
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NL Awards:
ROY – Brandon Belt
Cy Young – Tim Lincecum
MVP – Albert Pujols
AL Awards:
ROY – Jeremy Hellickson
Cy Young – Felix Hernandez
MVP – Adrian Gonzalez
NL West: Giants, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks
NL Central: Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, Cubs, Astros, Pirates
NL East: Phillies, Braves (WC), Marlins, Mets, Nationals
AL West: A’s, Rangers, Angels, Mariners
AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Royals
AL East: Red Sox, Rays (WC), Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles
NL Divisional: Phillies over Brewers, Giants over Braves
NL Pennant: Giants over Phillies
AL Divisional: Red Sox over Twins, A’s over Rays
AL Pennant: Red Sox over A’s
World Series: Red Sox over Giants…
But most of all, listen to Electric Feel (MGMT) just once before tonight’s game – that’s Lincecum’s warm-up song, after all. It’s Open Day. It’s Lincecum day. It’s win day. Life is good.
