Improbable Things of 2010: Javier Lopez

If there’s one dialog that’s defined the offseason of the Giants, it’s the dialog about luck. The rest of baseball chatters on about how lucky the Giants got, and then Giants fans get hacked off because that implies the team wasn’t good.

Frankly, some of the talk hacks me off too. As we’ve already covered, I don’t think Matt Cain is a league average innings muncher keeping one step ahead of the regression furies. I also feel like soundly beating a Rangers team that was giving regular ABs to Bengie Molina and regular innings to Tommy Hunter wasn’t an event all that far in to the thin part of the bell curve.

But in their rush to defend their team, I feel like Giants do forget about some amazing turns of luck last year. And forgetting about the crazy good fortune diminishes some of the magic of 2010. The Giants were a good team that needed luck to win, but they were also a team needed some luck to get good. It all wasn’t quite the ’69 Mets, but there’s enough to stand back  and gawk in amazement at.

Here’s sonething to gawk at: Javier Lopez.

ERA K:BB GB% K%
With Giants 1.48 7.33 0.613 0.253
Career 4.18 1.43 0.561 0.146

The line is amazing enough, (though every good pitcher probably has a great 25 inning streak in him) but the timing of it was also amazing. The Giants traded for Joe Beimel for their playoff run, but acquired Billy Wagner.

I wasn’t thrilled about trading for Javier Lopez. I was disappointed to give up on John Bowker  and I thought Martinez might come in handy for a rotation that lacked any depth beyond the 5th slot. The return looked just okay. Lopez was having a good, unspecial season on the Pirates. He looked to be an improvement on what we had (nothing you’d want to rely on, thanks to injuries), but not the lights out guy you would hope for in a WIN NOW trade.

Do you remember those fake X-Ray glasses that they used to sell in the back of comic books? The ones that  just made crappy, weird lines on everything. You knew that they wouldn’t really work, but you ordered them anyway, because even fake X-Ray specs are better than no X-Ray specs. Well, if what if when you ordered them, some wacky mix-up occurred and you got a real pair of functioning X-Ray glasses? That’s essentially what happened with Lopez trade. The man threw 20 of the most important innings that the Giants had down the stretch, facing down assorted left-handed sluggers. And he was close to flawless.

And there was this.

One of the things that’s great about baseball is that there are so many individual matchups that the unheralded have a regular chance to beat the game’s stars. Joey Votto has already won one MVP and may win more. Javier Lopez will never take home any comparable hardware. But for one at bat, he made an MVP look like he had no business being in the big leagues. And he followed that up with several more at bats of worm-killing, bat-missing, high-leverage  joy.

For 2010, I’m not expecting anything close to what Javier Lopez gave the Giants last year. That’s because if Javier Lopez were capable of a whole season of that, he wouldn’t look like the slight, professorial fellow that he does. He’d look like a winged demigod, eight feet tall and farting unhittable sliders. I’m sure he’ll be an acceptable groundball machine. If he misses that projection in either direction, well, I’m not going to complain.

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18 comments
nate
nate

Actually, to me the most remarkable thing about Lopez was the number of absurdly weak balls that he fielded. In 19 innings with the Giants he had 9! assists and 1 PO.

marcello
marcello

LOL me: <blockquote cite="Moron">But Lopez is pretty bad, even against lefties. I’m not looking forward to seeing him face Gonzalez (SD and COL version) or Ethier late in a close game.

Otis Anderson
Otis Anderson

Baseball provides us all a chance to be hilariously wrong! Apparently trading for Javier Lopez caused an excessively long comment on MCC from me, much of it embarassing: http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2010/7/31/159874... baetown had prophetic reaction: http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2010/7/31/159874...

marcello
marcello

Wow, that thread is full of gems, myself included. Full on freak out (almost makes me want to not freak out next time, but nah...it's too much fun). Grant's intro was also prophetic, assuming that it wasn't one of the ones he's changed since November 1st: If Lopez is perfect, shutting down lefties with runners on at every opportunity, and if the Giants make the playoffs by a single game, maybe this isn't a complete debacle. Maybe that would give the Giants some kind of value. So let's all just hope for that unlikely sequence of events.

Otis Anderson
Otis Anderson

As far as lessons in humility go, not bad, eh? I'm not going to change much about my approach to breaking down the game. Major league GMs really ought to be smarter than a bunch of nerds on the internet. I'm only too delighted when Sabean proves me wrong on something.

Roger
Roger

I'm really beginning to question if maybe I'm not smarter than an entire organization of dedicated lifetime baseball professionals with access to entire networks of scouting resources. Who'd a seen that twist coming?

Roger
Roger

The Votto "swing" may have been the season's finest and funniest pitch. I could watch that forever. Maybe we should get a Ryan Howard gif for a matching pair.

scout6
scout6

I really was against trading Bowker. But I am glad it worked out. Now a question? I remember hearing (can't cite sources though) that the Pirates were using Lopez all wrong during his time there and that lead to some of his more terrible looking stats. When he came to the Giants they used him more in the LOOGY role, very rarely having him face more than a few hitters at a time. Any truth to this?

Otis Anderson
Otis Anderson

There is! The Pirates were actually using him mostly against right handed hitters, only 39.1% of his batters faced were left-handed. The Giants managed to use him about 70% of the time against LHH. For most of his career, he's faced about as many lefties as righties. (I reckon that's actually about typical of LOOGYs).

scout6
scout6

YAY! So I will continue to expect him to be magic. Got it.

Otis Anderson
Otis Anderson

I think you should change your MCC avatar to a Magic card.

Roger
Roger

I've wondered this, too. Just watching him pitch last year he really did look to be a perfect LOOGY. Just avoid all RH and never pitch him more than a batter or two and you'd be leveraging his skills perfectly. Unfortunately, for whatever reason BRef is glitching out and won't show me his career splits, so I have no way of checking the validity of that theory.

Roger
Roger

I agree with Chris. Let's rush to defend our team! Wait... what?

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

I was on record as not liking the Lopez deal, but man, it turned out really well for us. I miss having Joe Martinez around as fungible SP depth, however, it's <del datetime="2011-02-10T21:13:28+00:00">hard</del> impossible to not like the deal in retrospect. I also hated the Huff signing. I'm noticing a pattern here... That Votto.gif fills me with happiness!

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Annnnnd, farting unhittable sliders sounds painful.