Bay City Ball’s Top Prospect List, #5-1

Published by on January 22, 2011 | 13 Responses

The top five prospects in the Giants system are probably the least controversial part of our list. The top three, in particular, are a whole level above the other prospects in this system. That said, I think there is at least one ranking that may surprise the minor league gurus.

5. Thomas Neal, OF 24 years old in 2011

Otis Anderson: Neal’s .291/.351/.440 line in the Eastern league isn’t bad or anything, it’s just not what you would like to see out of a corner outfielder. In fact, if you look back at guys who’ve done similar things in that league at a similar age, you see a lot of bench players and guys who just couldn’t quite stick in the majors. It will take one hell of a PCL campaign to convince me that Neal is for real again.

Chris Quick: Neal is easily the closest thing (well, besides Brandon Belt) that the Giants have to position player depth near the major league level. The Eastern League is usually tough on hitters (league average OPS of .729 last season) and while Neal didn’t dominate the league, he was better than league average with his .799 OPS. Neal was 23rd in the league by OPS (min. 300 at-bats) but a lot of his company was non-prospects like Tagg Bozied (30-years-old), Hector Gimenez (27-years-old), and Justin Christian (30-years-old). Right now, he profiles as a 4th outfielder, but I’m still holding out a little hope that his talent lies somewhere between his outstanding 2009 Cal League campaign (1.010 OPS, 559 PAs) and last year in Richmond.

4. Francisco Peguero, CF 23 years old in 2011

OA: Whatever else Francisco Peguero may do this year, he’s already been the recipient of the year’s most surprising ZiPS projection. That system sees him as ready to be a major league contributor right now. I’m more than a little sceptical of that, but Peguero has an impressive skillset: power, speed and defense. His minor league lines bespeak a player with almost no patience or pitch recognition – his game plan is to hit the ball really hard and then run really fast. Adding some strikezone control would make him a star.

CQ: After compiling our list, I think I probably ranked Peguero the most aggressively. He’s a fascinating player — if not flawed — and it’s hard to tell how he’ll end up. He doesn’t walk (3.9% career walk-rate in the minors) and his approach seems centered around hitting the ball in play and running. Scouts like his batspeed and his overall athleticism. I think he’s the most volatile prospect in our Top 5. AA should be a good challenge for him next year and if he can stay afloat, the Giants might have something.

3. Gary Brown, CF 22 years old in 2011

OA: I admit to being a little disappointed when the Giants took Brown last year. Not because I’m some draft guru who has a list of guys that they should have took, just because it doesn’t sound like a guy who’s going to be a great player – he’s a fast guy with a high batting average. I’m a bit over it now, and I still hold out hope that he can show a solid walk rate as a pro. Defense, baserunning and contact hitting should make him a fun player, if not a great one.

CQ: It’s fitting that Brown follows Peguero in our list, as both players are similar-ish. Brown’s footspeed (graded at an 80 on the ’20-80′ scouting scale) is out of this world. He’s one of the fastest players in the minors right now. He’s shown good bat-on-ball skills in college (he famously batted .438 in his last season at Cal Sate Fullerton) but, much like Peguero, he just doesn’t walk. From draft day videos, I’m not a huge fan of his hitting mechanics. Brown dances his feet around in the box as he waits for his pitch (video), it’s quite the sight to behold. I think Brown’s best case scenario is Juan Pierre. It’s easy to forget that Pierre (before he was drastically overpaid) was once a useful player.

2. Zack Wheeler, SP 21 years old in 2011

OA: Allow me to present the explanation for Zack Wheeler’s ranking in one image.

An excellent mustache is the key to excellent scouting

The man with the mustache that looks like it should be beating up hippies is named Dick Tidrow. You probably know his name, but if you don’t here’s what you need to know: this guy won the Giants a world series, as much as Edgar Renteria did and as much as Cody Ross did. Tidrow (with no small amount of credit to the man that hired him) drafted every starting pitcher not named Barry Zito, as well as the team’s two best relievers. The Giants have earned an awful lot trust when it comes to drafting pitchers. Wheeler’s professional data is still pretty scant, so I’m going to assume Wheeler is good until he proves that he isn’t.

CQ: Fact: that Dick Tidrow picture is amazing. It’s kind of a cop out, but I really agree with Otis that if it’s one thing I trust the Giants on, it’s drafting and developing pitching talent. Wheeler’s first minor league season was a mixed bag. He missed time with a cracked fingernail and because of that injury he only totaled 58.2 innings pitched. His walk-rate was high (5.8 per 9) but so was his K-rate (10.7). When Wheeler is right he throws a fastball in the low to mid-90s. He also throws a developing slider (I’ve also seen it called a slurve) and a changeup.

1. Brandon Belt, 1B 23 years old in 2011

OA: It’s nice to finally rank a guy for whom there’s no on the one-hand, on the other hand talk. Brandon Belt hit the crap out of the ball in San Jose, went to Richmond and hit the crap out of the ball there. Then in Fresno, almost as if just to show that he could, he hit .229 while still posting an OBP near .400 and a SLG over .500. He walked about as much as he struck out, and found time to get good reviews for his defense. It will take some jiggering or misfortune to get him into the big league lineup, but if he hits like last year, the Giants will find a spot for him.

CQ: The easiest placement on this whole list. Everything that Belt did in 2010 was successful. He hit .352/.455/.620 across 3 levels, ending up at AAA after he started the year in high-A. He’s a solid baserunner (22 SB, 8 CS) and he fields his position very well. He’ll enter 2011 as one of the top prospects in baseball.

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obsessivegiantscompu
obsessivegiantscompu

Nice rundown and discussion. I really like Brown a lot. People harp on his walks but neglect to look at his early college seasons when he wasn't as good a hitter and he took enough walks to allow him to make good use of his plus plus speed. He has demonstrated the ability to take walks when he needs to: he has shown the ability to get on base, by whatever means, throughout college. And he is not just fast, but as a RHB, he can reach 1B as fast as any LHB, despite the headstart they have being in the LHB box. That means he is probably faster than almost everyone in the game, not just is 80 on the scouts rating. Now speed like that is useless unless he knows how to use it. I believe his BA and power in college is directly linked to him being fast enough to be safe on plays at first and in take extra bases at 2B and 3B. He also uses it to steal bases, and the Giants could hopefully teach him some techniques to help him steal more effectively (that is one reason why I wanted the Giants to use Roberts in training the minors after he retired). And helps him defend CF so well, because he can get to balls that other fielders can't get to. Plus he can play in because that speed allows him to reach balls to the fence, and playing in allows him to get the dinks that normally would fall in. Much like how Mays used to play. I think Brown, despite his funky batting mechanics - he literally look like he is trying to squish numerous bugs in one AB, he is that jittery - can hit in the majors eventually. He improved his batting greatly from his freshman year to his junior year. And not just improve, but his junior year OPS was the highest recorded in the Big West Conference in the past 8 seasons, and only Evan Longoria, Kirk Suzuki, and (not sure first name) Blumenthal has similar OPS in that time, plus his ISO was among the best as well, I believe it was even better than Longoria. He also showed this advancement between his two seasons in the Cape Cod league as well. And he made the right choice, whether consciously or unconsciously. I took a 5 PA slice of his batting in 2010 and compared it with the linear weights if he instead had gotten 5 walks instead, and he produced more per linear weights than he would have with walks. He made the right choice to hit away instead of taking a walk: to do otherwise would have been the foolish move that many are complaining wrongly about him.

Husky24
Husky24

Hi ya'll, newby here, checking in from NC. Been a Gman fan since '52. Just want to point out a couple interesting points on Neal. He had to play half his games in Richmond which would depress anyones power numbers(2 homers at home) during a season when he made the A to AA jump. That is the biggest adjustment in baseball. His second half numbers were much stronger, so he made the adjustment. I think he has a terrific upside, and playing at Fresno should highlight his potential.

ldd233
ldd233

In his draft-day chat, Kevin Goldstein said Gary Brown was "Juan Pierre with more power, which is a pretty good player." Walks are good, but just because a guy doesn't walk, doesn't mean he's not good. It does mean he has to be better at the other things.

Julian Levine
Julian Levine

Great list. Can you shed light on how Gary Brown and Francisco Peguero compare to each other? Do you think Peguero has more power? I was kinda surprised by the statement that Peguero's skillset comprises power, speed and defense; I've never really thought of him as having much power (although it's certainly legitimate for a centerfielder), to be honest.

Otis Anderson
Otis Anderson

I'll be the first to admit that my standards for what constitutes "good power" degrade for fast guys. I guess "gap power" would be the right word for it: double digit home runs and extra base hits all over the place. Like all minor league prospects, he supposedly has more power than he's shown in game. I'm even less certain about Brown's power, mostly because I'm iffy about how that swing will translate to professional ball. The scouting reports that I could find also seemed pretty down on his power: more than one rated him a 20 on the 20/80 scale. Drawing favorable comparisons to Juan Pierre on that element isn't really all that reassuring either.

marcello
marcello

Great list guys. I really dislike the approach of the CFs in our system and I truly hated the Brown pick. I still wish they just wouldn't have signed him and gotten a comp pick in this years stocked draft. I also think Peguero is going to get chewed up in AA. Hopefully they both prove me wrong. Also, it looks like you accidentally have Peguero listed at SP.

Roger
Roger

I have a tendency to get irrationally attached to some player during the draft season (hey, it worked well with Lincecum!) and consequently my main issue with the Brown pick was that we left Nick Castellanos on the board when he seemed like such a great value for us at that pick. Like Marcello, I'm over it now and I do think that either Brown or Peguero could end up being a productive CF for us. I'm crazily (and literally irrationally) bullish on Peguero (who I had at 3 in front of Brown), and I can see him having a much better transition to the EL than any of our other prospects of late (non-Belt division). Of course, I'm usually wrong about my predictions, so he's gonna have to fight against that.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Thanks, Marcello. I fixed the Peguero error. I wasn't a huge fan of the Brown pick, either. I don't like his approach at all, but I do realize that with his defense and baserunning, the path to being a league average player isn't too far away. Peguero and Brown are pretty similar. I'm hoping at least one pans out. That's not too much to ask, is it?

Otis Anderson
Otis Anderson

Man, I hope Brown shows better strikezone control than Peguero does. If he doesn't, the number of things to like becomes pretty small. But I agree that the type of guy that you can see in him if things break right (a .300 hitter with good CF defense) is a pretty useful player.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

First ever use of 'Dick Tidrow's Mustache' for a post tag.