Madison’s Historic Rookie Season

All Giants rookie starters since 1910 (min. of 100 IP, 60% IP as starters) ranked by ERA+

Rk              Player ERA+ WAR SO/9    IP Year Age
1         Jeff Tesreau  173 5.0 4.41 243.0 1912  24
2           Al Demaree  142 4.0 3.43 199.2 1913  28
3         Carl Hubbell  139 2.1 2.69 124.0 1928  25
4    Christy Mathewson  138 7.5 5.92 336.0 1901  20
5    Madison Bumgarner  135 2.1 6.71 106.0 2010  20
6      John Montefusco  133 6.8 7.94 243.2 1975  25
7         Larry Jansen  129 4.8 3.77 248.0 1947  26
8      Jerome Williams  128 2.2 6.05 131.0 2003  21
9          Ruben Gomez  128 4.2 4.99 204.0 1953  25
10      Al Worthington  126 1.3 4.59 102.0 1953  24

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2010.

And a more recent query, since 1970 with the same criteria.

Rk              Player ERA+ WAR SO/9    IP Year Age
1    Madison Bumgarner  135 2.1 6.71 106.0 2010  20
2      John Montefusco  133 6.8 7.94 243.2 1975  25
3      Jerome Williams  128 2.2 6.05 131.0 2003  21
4          Bob Knepper  117 2.7 5.42 166.0 1977  23
5          Bill Laskey  114 4.2 4.18 189.1 1982  24
6         Tim Lincecum  112 2.0 9.23 146.1 2007  23
7            Matt Cain  108 2.4 8.45 190.2 2006  21
8       John DAcquisto  101 2.5 6.99 215.0 1974  22
9       Brad Hennessey   92 0.6 4.87 118.1 2005  25
10        Pete Falcone   92 1.8 6.21 190.0 1975  21

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2010.

For those wanting a refresher, MLB defines a rookie as:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

On our first list, Madison’s 2010 season ranks 5th all-time (since 1910) for a rookie starter on the Giants. His current 135 ERA+ places him among all-time greats such as Hubbell and Mathewson. It was a different time, but it’s hard to believe that Mathewson pitched 336 innings in his 2nd professional season of baseball — he accumulated a mere 33.2 IP in the 1900 season. John Montefusco won the Rookie of the Year Award for his fantastic (133 ERA+, 6.8 WAR) 1975 season. Jerome Williams will remind us that early success (128 ERA+, 2.2 WAR) doesn’t always lead to continued success. After posting 2.2 wins in his rookie season, Jerome Williams was worth only 1.1 wins over the rest of his career in 294.1 innings pitched and was out of baseball by age 25.

On the second ranking, our more modern group, Madison vaults all the way to the #1 position when ranked by ERA+. He doesn’t have the best WAR season — because he has ‘only’ pitched 106 innings — but he’s in the mix. If you’re going by a value added approach, it’s hard to best Montefusco and his 6.8 wins in ’75. Even though early success doesn’t equal career success, it’s very encouraging to see Bumgarner have a better start to his career than both Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. Another note of interest is Bumgarner’s age. At 20-years-old, he’s the youngest on our modern list. Even younger than Matt Cain, who debuted at a very early age of 21-years-old, and quite a bit younger than guys like Montefusco, Hennessey, and Bill Laskey.

There was a lot of consternation about Bumgarner before his season began — velocity questions mostly — but he’s done a lot right this season. He’s throwing harder as the season has progressed and he’s looked fantastic. Even though we can’t pencil him into the Hall of Fame (yet!) his rookie season has been very, very encouraging.