Buster’s Missing Walks

Published by on September 21, 2010 | 2 Responses

I think it’s something that we can all agree on — Buster Posey is having an incredible year on offense. The young catcher is currently hitting a cool slash-line of .325/.374/.517/. The advanced metrics also tell a story. His .381 wOBA is outstanding and his +18.5 batting runs above average is terrific.

In other words, he can hit. One of the more surprising things to me about Buster’s performance is his (relatively) low walk percentage. In 750 career minor league plate appearances, Posey owns a walk-rate of 13%. This year in 393 PAs, Posey’s walk-rate sits at 6.6%. I started this post before Sunday’s game — and the 3 walks that Posey drew in it — but Posey’s slightly below walk-rate is interesting.

Before we jump too much further, here’s a running BB% for Buster this season.

Buster’s 3 walk game on Sunday pushed his BB% rate up by nearly a whole percentage point — moving from 5.93% to 6.62% on the season. With Posey, I get the feeling that he’s still making adjustments at plate. According this study, walk-rate stabilizes around 200 PA. However, I would imagine that there might be a little more leeway with a player like Posey who is going through the league for the first time. As you can see from our running percentage, around game #31 Posey had an uptick in his walk-rate, moving from 3% all the way up to 6.5% around game #65. Still, it’s not the double-digit walk-rate he posted while in the minors. He is seeing 3.87 pitchers per PA — league average is 3.83 — so there is some hope that he’s still fine tuning things.

Posey’s contact-rate (82%) is also above-average this year. I think he’s got the tools to post a better walk-rate in upcoming seasons. My next idea is to try and pull the pitches/PA data and run a graph as the season has progressed. I think we would see an uptick as he’s played more games, he’s seeing more pitches. That’s just a guess, though. However, with Posey’s current BABIP (.342) working on his selectivity/walk-rate should be a goal for him over the offseason. When he first came  up this year, he was swinging a lot and making contact. There’s a good chance he’s not a true .340 BABIP hitter — most players aren’t — and when the hits stop falling, he’s going to need other ways to get on base.

Still, he’s been remarkable this year at the plate. It’s hard to imagine how his first year could have gone any better.

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yogiberra
yogiberra

I agree with the Poster above me.... However if someone can pass this suggestion on, to Coach Bam Bam Muelens, it could mean the difference between the Giants winning the pennant, or not! If you chart out all of the Giants losses, you will find that between 60-75% of their opponents Big Innings come immediately after the offense has had a 3-8 pitch, 1-2-3/out inning.... When three straight batters swing at the first or second pitch, only to ground or fly out, this defines Baseball Torture! Pitching is All About BREATHING, and pacing one's energy. A Starting Pitcher has learned how to adequately "catch their breath" during a 10-25 pitch inning by the their opponent. Even if each batter has to "take" two strikes, and have a greater risk of striking out, a 9-pitch inning (which is not usually likely), is far better than a 3-5 pitch inning. The primary reason that the Giants won 1-0 on Tuesday was because Zambrano had 116 pitches after 6 innings. In Giant's losses, it is almost Always the reverse. Offensively, the Giant batters would do more of a service to their starting pitchers by having 3 strikeouts that go to a Full Count (18 pitches), than a 3-pitch inning, where everyone flies out to the fences. Though some Giants seem consistently patient at the plate, such as Burrell, Torres, Freddie Sanchez, Guillen, Ross and Posey, others are not so patient, which is one reason the Giants lead the league in hitting into double-plays.... In the immortal words of me (Yogi Berra), "If you feel like you're about to hit into a Double-Play, then Strike-Out!" (....that gives someone a chance to drive that run in). Thanks, YB

nomisnala
nomisnala

I have watched almost every one of his at bats. They are basicly not walking him. It is a much different situation than that of Pablo Sandoval. With Pablo, they are throwing pitches which Pablo could take for walks. Yet, they are still challenging Posey, despite his ability to make them pay, time after time. He has good at bats, often working the count, and getting himself into good hitters counts. In games that the opposition is not giving in to him, he seems quite amenable to taking the walk. I think the walk rate is as much a reflection of how teams are pitching him right now, as it is his theoretical inability to take said walk. I think as teams decide that Buster is the guy they do not want to beat them, you will see his walk rate skyrocket.