Crawford’s Change At The Dish

Published by on May 23, 2010 | 4 Responses

The Giants drafted Brandon Crawford out of the 2008 First Year Player Draft from UCLA. The talented college shortstop was projected as a first round talent but he fell to the 4th round when he struggled in his final college year. The book on Crawford was as follows: terrific defender at SS but he swings-and-misses a lot — he struck out in 25% of his at-bats in that last year in college and that’s hitting with metal. In 2009, as a college draftee, the Giants started Crawford off in San Jose. Crawford was white-hot, hitting a slash of: .371/.445/.600. and soon found himself in Connecticut. While in Connecticut, Crawford took his lumps when he hit: .258/.294/.365.

They often say that the biggest transition for a prospect is between A and AA baseball. I’m not sure if that’s true or not, but it often seems that way. By all accounts Crawford’s glove was still terrific — BA ranked him the best defensive infielder in the system, here — but you’ve got show at least something offensively to carve out a starting role in the majors. Stat-watchers should have expected Crawford to have a rough transition from San Jose to Connecticut. Why? Crawford’s BABIP in San Jose was a staggering .493. We know that hitters can have a larger affect on their BABIP than their pitching counterparts, but a near .500 BABIP is an outlier. Crawford was hitting for a ton of power in San Jose (ISO .229) but he was striking out in nearly 1/3rd of his at-bats (K% 30.48%). When he got to AA, he walked even less (dropping from 8% to 4%) and his BABIP dropped to a more reasonable .334.

It was a rough stretch in AA for Crawford. The Giants left him in AA to start the 2010 season and so far the early returns have been great. Some numbers:

Year	Tm	        Lev	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP
2009	2 Teams	        AA-A+	542	5.54%	26.56%	0.132	.364
2009	San Jose	A+	119	8.40%	30.48%	0.229	.493
2009	Connecticut	AA	423	4.73%	25.51%	0.107	.334
2010	Richmond	AA	166	16.29%	24.44%	0.148	.294

Data pulled from 5.23.10

I’ve listed 4 pretty important statistics for hitters above. How much they walk (BB%), strikeout (K%), how much power they hit for (ISO), and their batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The most impressive development about Crawford’s second crack at AA baseball has been his BB% — it currently stands at 16.29%. After posting a 4.73% in AA last year, Crawford has nearly quadrupled his walk rate this year. He’s still striking out at the same rate, but strikeouts are less egregious if you can supplement them with other skills — namely getting on base via the walk and hitting for power. Overall, the Eastern League is a pretty tough place for hitters. For example, the league average hitter in the EL right now is hitting .251/.328/.378 (OPS .706). That includes slugging first basemen, outfielders, and other offense first positions. Comparatively, Crawford is hitting .252/.364/.400 (OPS .764). And that’s as a SS with above-average defense. Crawford’s ISO isn’t in the .200+ range that it was in San Jose, but at the current .148 he’s showing moderate power.

The biggest caveat is that it’s still early in the year — just 166 plate appearances to this point — but if Crawford’s change at the plate is for real, his ceiling adjusts a little from bench glove to potential starter.

If we call Crawford a .310 wOBA batter in the majors — think Orlando Caberera’s 2009 season or about any .700 OPS batter in the majors — we could value Crawford as follows:

Batting Wins Above Average (.310 wOBA, league wOBA .332): –1.28 wins
Defensive Wins Above Average: +0.5 wins
SS Positional Adjustment: +.75 wins
Replacement Level: +2.25 wins
-——————————————————————-
= 2.22 wins above replacement * .8 (or 80% playing time ie: 560 PA’s) = +1.78 wins

Under our assumptions above he projects as a 1.78 win player for the Giants in 80% playing time. I’m calling him a +5 run defender at SS, which is very good when you consider he plays in the most athletic player group in baseball. Also, keep in mind that this WAR valuation is without any baserunning component. Crawford should be mobile enough to chip in a couple of runs with is legs each year.

Depending on how Crawford finishes out this year — and if his new plate approach is for real — the Giants should have a couple of decisions on their mind. Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe are both free agents after this season and Crawford is the only prospect in the minors that you could consider for the opening at SS. From the looks of it, the best available ’11 SS FA will be J.J. Hardy. The Giants might want to consider signing a SS that can play half the year at the position before turning it over to Crawford. Again, it’s still very early in the year, but Crawford’s progress is quite encouraging. He’s probably the #5 prospect in the Giants system right now.

I would break down the Top-5 as follows:

1. Buster Posey
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Zach Wheeler
4. Thomas Neal
5. Brandon Crawford

With Brandon Belt around #6-8.

Comment Starter: What do you make of Crawford’s season so far? Is it too aggressive to pencil him into the 2011 Giants team?

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obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

Nice article on Crawford. I enjoyed it. I did not realize that the Eastern League was so low for the average batting line, very good to point out. He's doing well relative to the average player. I don't know how Richmond's stadium will work out for Giants prospects, but if you look at prior years in the Eastern League, simply being above average wasn't enough to give an indication that the player is ready for the majors in the near-term. If you look back at prior seasons, it is basically the Top 10 guys in OPS who move to the majors sooner, particularly those on the younger side. He's obviously not there for OPS. However, at 23, he is a bit younger than the average player, who is 24.3 YO, so that is a good sign in that regard. About his defense, Minor League Splits provides CHONE's defensive data on prior seasons and Crawford provided very good defense at SS, nearly 2 wins above average. If he can continue to develop and can do that at the MLB level, he won't have to hit for much for him to contribute positively to the team. But given the above that I noted about history, unless he reaches the Top 10 in OPS, I don't see how he's going to be starting for us in 2011. Even with great defense like that, he would still need to hit OK and with that high K-rate, there is no guarantee, though that high walk rate, albeit small samples, is very encouraging. I would take it a year at a time in terms of evaluating whether he can make the majors, so I expect him to be in AAA next season. Right now, I can see Uribe as the odds-on favorite for the Giants to sign as the starter for 2011, with an outside chance of signing Renteria - but not for his option price, after they buy out his option - if he can continue to pull off a good year batting without injury. If they operate on DeRosa by mid-season, and it still appears to be healing well by the time free agent season comes, I would place him as the dark horse to start the 2011 season as the shortstop, with the possibility that Crawford could be promoted mid-season to prep him to start for us in 2012. About Adrianza, yeah, age is a big deal particularly when you are significantly younger, which he is this season (and Noonan last season in San Jose). That and his great control of the bat, look at Sandoval's progression and age, not that Adrianza will ever hit for Pablo's power, but his plate discipline up the minors is impressive for any age, so I'm very hopeful that he'll reach the majors with that bat and already impressive defense (from what I've read). But he's probably still at least two more seasons after this before making the majors, and probably three to four, unless the Giants decide to put more meat on his bones. What I've read is that the big jump for prospects is from AA to AAA, in terms of transition. What I've read is that AA is when you can start using his batting line data for possible MLB analysis (according to Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster toolkit), so clearly there is a big transition from Advanced A to AA. But the rule of thumb I had previously read was that, even with that jump, the key jump is from AA to AAA. Perhaps that has changed in recent years, I haven't really seen a discussion about this for a long while.

tedfordfan
tedfordfan

Crawford has been a very pleasant surprise so far this year. I had him on my "Bust Watch" List, but he's been very solid so far. He's streaky, so wait for the slump and see how he responds. Penciling him in for 2011 is way, way, way premature, IMO. I would say he's moved up on the prospect list, but I'm very cautious to move people up and down based on two months of play (like the AFL, for example). I'd say he's in the middle of the top-10 somewhere, after the four you list, but somewhere in the 5-8 range with Joseph, Rodriguez and Kieschnick. I don't know if I'd put Belt in the top-10 just yet - again, I'm very cautious and he plays the position with the least margin for error (1B). With regard to Adrianza, you have to remember that he's one of the younger players in his league. He was last year as well. He's similar to Nick Noonan in how you have to evaluate him, except he plays a more valuable defensive position at a higher level. He's got a long way to go with the bat, but he's put up good BB% and K% numbers (although both, not unexpectedly, are slightly worse this year after his promotion). He's also got a projectable frame - he's only 160 lbs, but he's 6'1", so he could fill out as he gets older, which might help the dreadful power numbers. He's also a very average baserunner. He's so highly regarded because he plays the toughest position in baseball and has a chance to be superlative there and has shown some skill with the bat and it's not out of the question to see him developing enough of the other skills he needs to succeed.

Remember 51
Remember 51

I don't think it's aggressive at all. With Renteria becoming a free agent, and the status of Emmanuel Burriss' health a major question (though I don't think much of him anyways), Crawford in my mind has a major shot to get some playing time in 2011. Like you I have noticed that his BB percentages have gone up. I was very skeptical of his San Jose stats last year mainly because his BB/K ratio was so poor (0.31 in San Jose) and his stats in Connecticut confirmed my analysis. However, he has been much different and is putting up solid numbers in, like you said, a very tough league for hitters (Eddy Martinez-Esteve's power, not to mention promise, died in the Easten League for example). I really hope Crawford continues to progress this year and I hope at some point he gets a shot in Fresno to show what he can do at the next level, not to mention prepare him a little bit for Spring Training next season. He's been pretty solid defensively over his career too (5.14 RF/G this year), and I would prefer the Giants to give him a shot at the job over a free agent like J.J. Hardy to boot.

Remember 51
Remember 51

Sorry to post again, but what do you think of Ehire Adrianza? BA has him as the Giants' 8th best prospect (one better than Crawford) going into this year. I just don't see the hype. I know he's young (he's only 20 years old), and has solid defensive skills, but he hasn't been exactly impressive with the bat in San Jose this year (not to mention he was pretty mediocre in Augusta last year as well). I'm not saying he's a Brian Bocock by any means, but I'm curious to see if he can hit well enough to make the Majors, even if he is a shortstop.