Crawford’s Change At The Dish

Nice article on Crawford. I enjoyed it. I did not realize that the Eastern League was so low for the average batting line, very good to point out. He's doing well relative to the average player. I don't know how Richmond's stadium will work out for Giants prospects, but if you look at prior years in the Eastern League, simply being above average wasn't enough to give an indication that the player is ready for the majors in the near-term. If you look back at prior seasons, it is basically the Top 10 guys in OPS who move to the majors sooner, particularly those on the younger side. He's obviously not there for OPS. However, at 23, he is a bit younger than the average player, who is 24.3 YO, so that is a good sign in that regard. About his defense, Minor League Splits provides CHONE's defensive data on prior seasons and Crawford provided very good defense at SS, nearly 2 wins above average. If he can continue to develop and can do that at the MLB level, he won't have to hit for much for him to contribute positively to the team. But given the above that I noted about history, unless he reaches the Top 10 in OPS, I don't see how he's going to be starting for us in 2011. Even with great defense like that, he would still need to hit OK and with that high K-rate, there is no guarantee, though that high walk rate, albeit small samples, is very encouraging. I would take it a year at a time in terms of evaluating whether he can make the majors, so I expect him to be in AAA next season. Right now, I can see Uribe as the odds-on favorite for the Giants to sign as the starter for 2011, with an outside chance of signing Renteria - but not for his option price, after they buy out his option - if he can continue to pull off a good year batting without injury. If they operate on DeRosa by mid-season, and it still appears to be healing well by the time free agent season comes, I would place him as the dark horse to start the 2011 season as the shortstop, with the possibility that Crawford could be promoted mid-season to prep him to start for us in 2012. About Adrianza, yeah, age is a big deal particularly when you are significantly younger, which he is this season (and Noonan last season in San Jose). That and his great control of the bat, look at Sandoval's progression and age, not that Adrianza will ever hit for Pablo's power, but his plate discipline up the minors is impressive for any age, so I'm very hopeful that he'll reach the majors with that bat and already impressive defense (from what I've read). But he's probably still at least two more seasons after this before making the majors, and probably three to four, unless the Giants decide to put more meat on his bones. What I've read is that the big jump for prospects is from AA to AAA, in terms of transition. What I've read is that AA is when you can start using his batting line data for possible MLB analysis (according to Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster toolkit), so clearly there is a big transition from Advanced A to AA. But the rule of thumb I had previously read was that, even with that jump, the key jump is from AA to AAA. Perhaps that has changed in recent years, I haven't really seen a discussion about this for a long while.

Crawford has been a very pleasant surprise so far this year. I had him on my "Bust Watch" List, but he's been very solid so far. He's streaky, so wait for the slump and see how he responds. Penciling him in for 2011 is way, way, way premature, IMO. I would say he's moved up on the prospect list, but I'm very cautious to move people up and down based on two months of play (like the AFL, for example). I'd say he's in the middle of the top-10 somewhere, after the four you list, but somewhere in the 5-8 range with Joseph, Rodriguez and Kieschnick. I don't know if I'd put Belt in the top-10 just yet - again, I'm very cautious and he plays the position with the least margin for error (1B). With regard to Adrianza, you have to remember that he's one of the younger players in his league. He was last year as well. He's similar to Nick Noonan in how you have to evaluate him, except he plays a more valuable defensive position at a higher level. He's got a long way to go with the bat, but he's put up good BB% and K% numbers (although both, not unexpectedly, are slightly worse this year after his promotion). He's also got a projectable frame - he's only 160 lbs, but he's 6'1", so he could fill out as he gets older, which might help the dreadful power numbers. He's also a very average baserunner. He's so highly regarded because he plays the toughest position in baseball and has a chance to be superlative there and has shown some skill with the bat and it's not out of the question to see him developing enough of the other skills he needs to succeed.

I don't think it's aggressive at all. With Renteria becoming a free agent, and the status of Emmanuel Burriss' health a major question (though I don't think much of him anyways), Crawford in my mind has a major shot to get some playing time in 2011. Like you I have noticed that his BB percentages have gone up. I was very skeptical of his San Jose stats last year mainly because his BB/K ratio was so poor (0.31 in San Jose) and his stats in Connecticut confirmed my analysis. However, he has been much different and is putting up solid numbers in, like you said, a very tough league for hitters (Eddy Martinez-Esteve's power, not to mention promise, died in the Easten League for example). I really hope Crawford continues to progress this year and I hope at some point he gets a shot in Fresno to show what he can do at the next level, not to mention prepare him a little bit for Spring Training next season. He's been pretty solid defensively over his career too (5.14 RF/G this year), and I would prefer the Giants to give him a shot at the job over a free agent like J.J. Hardy to boot.

Sorry to post again, but what do you think of Ehire Adrianza? BA has him as the Giants' 8th best prospect (one better than Crawford) going into this year. I just don't see the hype. I know he's young (he's only 20 years old), and has solid defensive skills, but he hasn't been exactly impressive with the bat in San Jose this year (not to mention he was pretty mediocre in Augusta last year as well). I'm not saying he's a Brian Bocock by any means, but I'm curious to see if he can hit well enough to make the Majors, even if he is a shortstop.