Sergio Romo’s Deadly Weapon « Bay City Ball – A Giants Blog

Sergio Romo’s Deadly Weapon

Outside of on-field performance, there’s a few things that will always endear me to a pitcher. Stirrups, check. Weird facial hair, check. Funky pitching motions, double-check. As a fan of the Giants and their farm system, sometime around 2007 Sergio Romo caught my eye when he completely devastated the California League. If you ever read any scouting report on Romo, they all sing the same chorus: deceptive motion, throws strikes, doesn’t blow hitters away with velocity. Deceptive motion? Now I’m intrigued. Almost all scouting reports made a note on Romo and his varying arm-slots and looks he gave hitters. He was mostly a fringe prospect, but for me, his ’07 in the California League is just too nuts to not impress.

Take a gander:

Year Lg Lev ERA IP H ER BB SO BB/9 SO/9
2007 CALL A+ 1.36 66.1 35 10 15 106 2.0 14.4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/4/2010.

Yes, that’s what a 14.4 K/9 looks like. Romo struck out 106 in 66.1 innings while only walking 15 hitters. Funky motion, or not, you won’t see a better season from a pitcher’s standpoint anywhere. Romo was simply un-hittable for that year. Romo eventually made his MLB debut in 2008 at 25-years-old and, has since, been solid reliever for the Giants. In 79.2 career innings pitched at the major league level, Romo owns a 2.61 FIP that he’s paired with a 9.83 K/9 and a 2.15 BB/9. What’s been so vital to Romo’s success as a pitcher?

It’s an easy question for anyone to answer that’s seen Romo pitch: it’s his slider. By FanGraph’s pitch-type values, Romo’s slider has been worth 12.6 runs above average since 2008 — if you go by the 10 runs to 1 win rule, that’s a 1.2 win pitch for Romo. Romo possesses a frisbee slider that he throws from a few different arm angles and batters haven’t been able to touch the pitch since Romo entered the league.

The above graph indicates Romo’s slider usage this year split by batter handedness. Whiffs are represented by black circles and contact is represented by X marks. In 2010, Romo has thrown a total of 165 pitches — 67 of which have been the slider. Romo has thrown the slider 40% of the time this season, he’ll pair the pitch with a 2-seam fastball and the occasional changeup. Looking at Romo vs. right-handed batters, we can see a pretty typical usage for the slider. It’s generally in the lower half of the zone with most whiffs coming down and away from the batter. Against lefties, Romo has tended to work them away — or the “back door” slider — or down in the zone. I think from our graphs you can see the above-average control Romo has with his slider, he controls the pitch well and has tended to spot it in the right places.

More numbers on Romo’s slider:

* Of the 67 sliders Romo’s thrown this year, batters have whiffed on 18 of them. That’s a Whiff% of 26.8%.
* The league average Whiff% for all sliders (starters + relievers) thrown in the majors this year is 13.4%
* Romo posted a slider Whiff% of 14.2% in 2009
* The velocity range on Romo’s slider is between 77-79 mph

We’re looking at some pretty small sample sizes when it comes to pitches thrown and results, but Romo’s slider has been a fantastic pitch for him this year. It’s unlikely that he’ll continue to post a 26%+ Whiff% on his slider, but it’s seems likely that his slider will continue to be an above-average pitch for him. Whether or not he’ll have to add another wrinkle to his pitch selection as he progress through his career is another question that’s up in the air. Traditionally, Romo has thrown his slider almost half the time — 46% in ’09 and right around 40% this season — and batters have to know that when they are facing Romo, they’ll get a steady diet of sliders. And yet, they still have had trouble with the pitch. That makes the quality of his slider even more impressive, in my opinion.

As long as he’s healthy (my biggest concern with Romo) the Giants should have an above-average reliever on their hands. If Brian Wilson’s groin is still bothering him, you might even see Romo get a few save opportunities. For the pitcher with the funky motion and filthy slider, it’s well deserved.

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@delorean Sergio was throwing slightly less sliders then usual and more fastballs last night. 8 slider/curves out of 26 total pitches with 16 fastballs and 2 change ups. That breaks down to about 30% sliders which is a little below what Chris had reported for the season at 40%. The pitch that Uggla hit the bomb on was a fastball that was and right over the plate at about the belt. It seemed the Uggla was sitting fastball and got one that was right in his sweet spot to hit out of the park.

So... what happened last night? I was only following along on At-Bat, but it looked like Sergio was throwing more fastballs than usual. Thoughts?

more or less what i was thinking, but, as always, the SSS warning applies. OTOH, if Bochy is going to go with the "hot hand" (it pains me to even type that), then Sergio has got to supplant Affeldt as the high-leverage guy. thanks!

Chris: apropos your "save opps" comment, how do you feel about Bochy's use of Romo to this point? Do you think he's being used appropriately, or should he be seeing more high-leverage situations?

@Ian Did you just use the phrase 'hot hand' on my blog? I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to bludgeon you to death with my spreadsheets. @JT Thanks, good to see you here, too! I know what you mean when you say you didn't think much of Romo because of velocity. He seems to be a classic example of stats vs. scouts. I never really read any glowing scouting reports on Romo, but he tended to put up pretty good (or really good in '07) stats. Sometimes those guys turn out and you get Sergio Romo, and sometimes you get Yusmeiro Petit.

Great stuff, Chris! I never thought much of Romo when he was in the lower Minors- thought he'd be a career Minor Leaguer due to his lack of velocity. Boy, did he sure prove me wrong.

Ian: Here's the Giants bullpen by average leverage index: J. Affelt 2.02 B. Wilson 1.16 S. Romo 1.11 D. Runzler 0.67 B. Medders 0.41 W. Joaquin 0.35 G. Mota 0.24 Overall, no big issues, I think. I would probably scale Affeldt back a little. He hasn't been that sharp (K/9 of 6, BB/9 of 5 ... ick)to start the year but the Giants are obviously enamored over his performance last season. Brian Wilson hasn't pitched in any really high leverage situations yet. I definitely would have let Romo finish this game: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2010... Instead of bringing Affeldt to get the very last out. The more that I think about it, until Affeldt gets going, I would probably swap him and Romo, making Sergio the #2 bullpen guy behind Wilson.

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