Off-the-cuff-thoughts:
- I’m not sure how much the 2010 team has improved. Sanchez will be better than the group of second basemen that the Giants ran out in 2009, but he’s an injury risk in a playergroup that’s tended to age poorly.
- Mark DeRosa in LF nets the Giants zero wins over playing Fred Lews in LF over a full season.
- Aubrey Huff could very well do worse at first base than a full season of Travis Ishikawa. Again, it’s another position that I’m not sure the Giants got better at.
- The pitching will probably regress a little. To expect the pitching to stay the same that it was in ’09 seems foolish.
- Being positive: bringing Molina back isn’t a terrible deal if it means the Giants are committed to Posey as soon as they can call him up and not have it affect his arb-clock down the line. Molina should not hit 4th for the Giants in the upcoming season.
All interesting thoughts. Molina obviously didn’t get the 3-year deal on the free agent market that he was looking for. I’ll be working on the 2010 WAR team projection. Hopefully I’ll have it online in a week or less.
The Molina deal really pissed me off, although I can see how, from a practical standpoint, it might be as good or slightly better than Torrealba or Barajas. The 1.5 mil additional incentive for 130 starts may well drive me over the edge, as I’m 100% certain that Bochy will do everything he can to help Benjie hit that total.
I’m actually ok with this. Benji showed that he can still hit and hit in clutch situations. If he’s asked to hit 6th or 7th and not 4th like he was last year, he can still be a solid offensive contributor. Not to mention the fact that he knows the pitching staff better than anyone and he makes an absolute difference to those guys behind the plate. Keep in mind that they haven’t upgraded the offense to the extent most of us would like, so trying to keep the pitching reasonably close to where it was last year should be a prime concern.
Best case scenario is Benji having another 20+ HR season, this time from the 6th spot, and the pitching staff benefits big time from his veteran presence. Worst case scenario is Benji loses it completely and is replaced as the starter by Posey after Posey’s had a couple of months in Triple-A working on his receiving and game-calling skills.
Hairball,
I think I would be fine with the deal if I KNEW that the Giants would only use Molina until Buster is ready sometime in June to delay his arb-clock. But, I know they won’t use him that way. Molina openly griped about his PT last year and he’s not the kind of guy that wants to break in a kid. It’s a poor choice because Posey is the better option right now and if they want to bring in someone to mentor him — get someone that actually wants to, you know, mentor.
Doc,
I think you might be surprised if you looked at Bengie’s stats last year. He hit alright for a catcher — a position that has low offensive requirements — but he was still below average, even for a catcher. Clutch hitting largely doesn’t exist. Regardless, Bengie didn’t hit well in the clutch. He didn’t hit well during the rest of the season either.
Additionally:
It seems weird that the Giants spent $6M on a backup catcher for a player that’s really very close to being ready. Yet, they seem OK with the idea of putting Bumgarner, a prospect that most likely isn’t ready, into the rotation to start the year.
Initially, I was ok with the 1/4.5 deal, outside of my complete hatred of watching Bengie hit. But with the extra 1.5 million incentive, and just more time to think about it, I really don’t like it at all.
And if Bumgarner starts the year in the majors, I’m going to be really frustrated. I’d much rather give Martinez or Pucetas a shot, or a low priced FA pitcher.
Yeah, you’re right about the numbers, they weren’t good. But for what he brings in terms of the confidence of the pitching staff and the fact that he still has some pop in his bat, I’m not bothered by this one-year deal.
Also, I’m sure there are plenty of numbers to support that clutch hitting is a bit of a myth, but I’ve seen him drive home enough runs in the 7th inning or later and when behind or tied that I would classify him as a “clutch” hitter. If nothing else he has certainly been the most “clutch” hitter the Giants have had over the last few seasons.
Chris, I am also bewildered by the Giants concluding that a 20-year old is ready to be a 5th starter but that a 23-year old (Golden Spikes winner!) is not ready to play full-time. Then again, MadBum will probably get sent down when we pick up a scrap-heap 5th starter next month. Alas, Doug Davis is a Brewer.
MarkOC,
It’s really just the nature of the positions. Posey, even at 23 and with success in the minors, can use all the experience at lower levels that he can get. Catcher is a very demanding position and the last thing we as Giants fans want is for some defensive struggles to affect him at the plate. We know he can hit, but just a little more patience and it will work out.
As for Bumgarner, even at his young age, he has little left to prove against minor league competition. Plus, if you look around baseball, on stuff alone he’s good enough to be just about anyone’s 5th starter.
That’s my take at least.
I just wanted to register my disgust with this choice without foaming at the mouth. I have no hope Big Head will limit Molina’s play time and less hope he will keep Molina out of the heart of the order. Really the only positives I could see from this is maybe Sandoval hitting #2 and possibly they control Posey’s arbitration clock?
Adoc: Madison has not pitched over 150 innings in a season that I am aware of and with his velocity drop shows he still has plenty he could prove in the minors. He is differently not in the same situation as Bowker; not by the widest of margins. I would rather they not just be satisfied with just a #5 from Baumgarner. If he is what the Giants hope he his basically the Giants are trading what would be his final year of team ,on a more responsible development path, for a season of Kevin Corriea 2.0.
daveinexile,
I too am concerned about the velocity drop, but I don’t know that that means he has more to prove. Even with that drop in velocity he was able to get minor league hitters out with stunning efficiency. Could he use some more time at Triple-A? I think you could make the argument that any 20-year-old could. But if he comes to spring training and his velocity is back combined with a better feel for his off-speed stuff, I think he could be very effective as the 5th starter.
I get the idea of delaying his service time in order to have him under club control longer, but I don’t see a FA pitcher or another (older) minor league option that could do a better job. Do you really want the Giants to either shell out a few more million bucks for a journeyman 5th starter like Jon Garland, Chan-Ho Park or Jarrod Washburn or go with Joe Martinez/Kevin Pucetas?
On another note, here are some stats I just noticed about Molina…
The Giants were 15-3 last season when Bengie homered. 10 of his homers gave the Giants the lead in a game in which they were either trailing or tied and nearly half of his HRs (9) came in the 7th inning or later.
Also, the Giants were 17-1 last season when he drove in 2 runs or more. And in one stretch from August 8th through September 4th, he homered in the 8th inning or later in 5 different games and the team went 4-1 in those games, with three of those wins coming by a single run.
I know a lot of people are down on bringing him back, but as stated above, I think he is a “clutch” hitter and can really help the club in 2010.
ADOC:
I think you are dismissing what that velocity drop really says. It says either this guy can’t throw 180 + IP in the MLB because he does not have the raw skill to do so or has not figured out how to use what he has to do so. Either way the Farm is the place to find that out; not the MLB and definitely not the rotation of the team that expects to lose less than 90 games.
As for the old clutch hitter stats Small Sample Size Theater will provide a lot of laughs. Take a look at Lewis numbers with 2 out Risp in ’09 than look at Molinia’s. That should make your eyes pop a bit. The bottom line with Molinia, in my opinion, is he as been given permission to fail so he gets enough chances to succeed. I’ve seen nothing that tells me Mollinia knocks in base runners are a more frequent clip then others.
I’ll go with you a bit on Bumgarner. In a perfect world, yeah, he would start in Triple-A, build up his arm strength and work on his breaking pitches. But my point is simply that all other available options, in my opinion, are not as good. That’s all.
As for Molina, like I said a bit further up the page, I’m sure many of the numbers don’t back up my claim that he’s a “clutch” hitter. I completely understand that the more chances you get to succeed in big spots the more often you probably will. That said, I’ve witnessed enough quality at-bats in big spots to be more than comfortable with him in the 6th or 7th spot in the order. Unlike the Bumgarner situation, there actually is a better option that allows a young player (Posey) to develop in Triple-A, and that’s Molina. What he brings to the pitching staff alone is worth it for one more year.