Brief update today, the 2010 CHONE projections have been released. You can find them, here. Free agents are listed, here. The pitching projections have not yet been released. Just the hitting projections to this point.
Interesting projections:
Nick Johnson .264/.395/.407
Mmm, OBP. Johnson’s slugging has been down in recent seasons (especially in 2009 when he posted an ISO of .114 vs a career of .174) but he’s still got the ability to get on base. I would also bank on his defense being closer to league average. Mark me down as pro-Johnson. I don’t care how that sounds.
Mike Cameron .236/.321/.420
I’m a big fan of the Giants signing Mike Cameron. He can still defend in CF and if moved to a corner, or the spacious right field at AT&T, his defense would very good. This isn’t the most favorable projection for Cameron. It might have something to do with an age adjustment since Cameron will be 37-years-old in 2010. I still like him a lot as a potential free agent buy.
Gregg Zaun .228/.323/.353
See my reasons why I like Zaun.
Bengie Molina .261/.288/.421
Ewww. A two-eighty-eight OBP? No thank you. The Giants are almost certain to offer Molina arbitration — I just hope he declines. Speaking of..
Buster Posey .263/.340/.389
Not bad. Not bad at all. I love the OBP. I think there’s a pretty good chance that Posey is a better defender than Molina right now. This is a very solid projection for a rookie like Posey. I’d probably take the over on his power, too.
Pablo Sandoval .312/.356/.502
Sandoval gets a favorable projection. It’s not the .943 OPS he put up last season, but batting average dependent guys like Sandoval will probably get regressed a good bit — ie: a lower BABIP. This is still a stellar line from Sandoval. And, if he can maintain a league average walk rate, he could get better.
Ryan Garko .276/.354/.446
I think we would all take this projection from Garko next season. For better or worse, he’s not a bad LHP hitting option at first base. I just don’t like him in LF (a position he cannot play) or as a full-time starter. He would be pretty good injury insurance for a high upside free agent 1B with injury concerns (Johnson, Delgado, Branyan).
I’d take Marlon Byrd over Cameron, if only because of age. But a free agent class of Byrd, Johnson and Zaun would make this Giants fan quite happy.
I’m not big on projections, but they are a useful tool when evaluating the relative worth of one player to the next.
Like you, Chris, I find the Nick Johnson and Ryan Garko numbers interesting. Both productive and both could thrive in a 1B platoon.
Since it is obvious the Giants are (thankfully) not going to resign their only three FAs they wanted back–Molina, Penny, and Uribe–then they ought to pursue Johnson and seriously entertain the possibility of Holliday.
Nick Johnson would be a definite upgrade over Travis Ishikawa.
>Mark me down as pro-Johnson. I don’t care how that sounds.<
Better than being pro-Bocock.