There’s not much left for Buster Posey to prove in the minor leagues. In 2009, the young catcher put up a .433 wOBA in San Jose in 80 games, was promoted to Fresno, and put up a .390 wOBA in 35 games. If a slash-line is more your thing, Buster has a career .327/.421/.538 minor league line. He’s the best prospect in the Giants’ system and a legitimate Top-5 prospect in all of baseball. As a polished college draft pick, he’s ready for MLB action.
The Giants have been tentative about naming Posey the starting catcher for 2010 and all signs point to the team bringing in a veteran catcher or bringing back Bengie Molina to help ease Buster into a starting role. Bringing back Molina would probably be one of the worst things for Buster’s development and the Giants’ wallet. If the Giant chose to offer arbitration to Molina, there’s a chance he could accept and get a 1-year paycheck around the $6M he earned in ’09. There’s also some questions about Molina and how happy he would be in a back-up / mentor role. In addition, I just can’t imagine Bruce Bochy sitting down Molina for Buster Posey.
Thus, the Giants are looking for a catcher with the following requirements:
- Has veteran experience. Someone who’s been in the league for more than a few years and has experience working with and catching all sorts of pitchers.
- Has good defense or perceived good defense. For this reason, and this reason alone, Eli Whiteside appeared in 47 games with the Giants.
- Bonus: Can hit a little.
Enter Gregg Zaun.
The Rays, however, did not pick up the options for LHP reliever Brian Shouse ($2 million) and backup C Gregg Zaun ($2 milion).
Gregg Zaun is now a free agent after the Rays declined his option. The Rays chose to pay Zaun $500K instead of picking up his $2M option and bringing him back for the 2010 season. The Rays’ loss could be the Giants gain. Gregg Zaun fits the ideal mold for veteran catcher.
- The price is right. Zaun would only cost the Giants $2-3M as compared to potentially $6M (or more) for someone like Bengie Molina. It doesn’t sound like a huge amount of money, but it’s $2-3M more that the Giants could spend on a more deserving free agent.
- Zaun’s defensive profile is solid. According to this informative post on catcher’s defense, Zaun was an average defender in 2009. Even if you want to factor in aging, he’ll be 38-years-old in 2010, Zaun should rate within 2-3 runs of average.
- He can hit. Over the past 3 seasons Zaun has posted OBP’s of .341, .340, and .345. He owns a career OBP of .344 across 15 seasons. Looks much nicer than Molina’s .285 OBP, right? Don’t let Molina’s HR and RBI numbers fool you, Zaun is just as good of a hitter — if not better. Zaun’s last three seasons by wOBA: .324, .316, and .334. Compare that to Molina’s past three seasons: .314, .328, and .308. Zaun is a good bet to either match or better Molina on offense in 2010.
If I was a GM and had to pick between Zaun and Molina, I would take Zaun almost every single time. He’s going to be cheaper than Molina and he’s got a good chance to give you the same level of performance. If we project Zaun for 2010 he should look like the following:
Batting Wins Above Average (.320 wOBA, league wOBA .332): –0.7 wins
Defensive Wins Above Average: -.3 wins
C Positional Adjustment: +1.25 wins
Replacement Level: +2 wins
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= 2.25 wins * .50 (or about 350 PA’s for PT) = +1.13 WAR
We’ve called him a .320 wOBA hitter with -3 run defense behind the plate. All things considered in a part-time sharing role with Posey, Zaun would be worth around +1.13 wins. That makes him around a $4-5M a year player by recent spending on the FA market. Zaun should sign for around $2-3M making him a nice deal. He gives the Giants everything they like in Molina but with a much smaller commitment. Gregg Zaun makes a ton of sense for the Giants.
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Nice try, NERD: http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/hardball/giants_to_sink_cash_into_offense_HpFLMTViMMLbAroSLdNMCK
I agree, as I wrote on this a while back. Other points why Zaun: he did this type of keeping the seat warm last season for the Orioles while they waited to bring up Matt Weiters. In addition, the Fielding Bible lists him as among the Top 5 in adjusted earned runs saved over the last six years, 2003-2008, with 12, so he is very good in handling pitchers according to this stat.
I’m also OK with Brad Ausmus as well, though he’s older, he has been good defensively and offensively. He was in top five over prior three years with 9, not that far away from the top (#2 was +11).
However, I now qualify that Zaun is good as long as the Giants have decided that Posey is not starting in the majors at the beginning of 2010. If that is up in the air, then Zaun is probably OK with starting initially then moving over when the time comes, since he did that with the Orioles. If Posey could become the starter, that is probably a no go for him because the Rays look to be promising him to be the starter. Plus they were in the World Series recently, he’s not getting younger.
However, according to what I’ve read, Zaun is from the Tampa Bay area and appears willing to re-sign with the Rays so that he can be near home/family, so that would put his contract at around $500,000 to $1,000,000 since his original option was $2M and he got $500,000 buy out and that’s approximately what the Rays would have to pay him in order to save money in this deal.
So he would want more money, given that it’s at home and they are willing to give him the starting job. How much would it take to get him to sign away from home and a sure starting job? Don’t know, but that’s certainly a big factor for him, so we would definitely have to beat $1M handily to entice him. Is $2M, $3M enough, given the insecurity of the starting position and the lower possibility of making the playoffs and being away from home/family?
So it might be easier to get Ausmus, as he was with the Dodgers last year, plus one thing I like about getting him is that he would be able to tell the Giants about all the Dodger secrets they got, or even what he observed while in their dugout, whether it be batter’s or pitcher’s weaknesses, he should have learned something juicy and useful by now. And at age 41, he should get even less than what Zaun would normally want.
p.s. I like the new look!
Zaun was actually born in Glendale, CA. Not sure if he lives or has family in Tampa Bay, though.
Thanks, Mark!
Also, no way to Ausmus. He’s not much better than Eli Whiteside, imo.
Love the new banner!
Back on topic.
Zaun please! The guy has not played over 1000 innings since 2005 so that should slow down Botchey endless veteran lust. Sure play him every day possible Bochey because the sooner you wear him out the sooner you will have to be playing a rookie. Plus in his own right Zaun, as a backup, is a reasonably valuable commodity. He might not return a lot, but if healthy, he could be moved mid season if things go very badly in the first half instead of DFA’ed to clear 25 man roster space.
OCG I am not so sure the sign with a winner thing (if it is a factor at all) doesn’t help the Giants cause. Last I looked the NL West has no franchises like the Yanks or Red Sox in them Tim, Cain and Panda is a pretty tempting nucleus to go into a season in a fairly open division with.