The Giants, in a quest to add something resembling a major league hitter to their lineup, went out and traded LHP Scott Barnes for 1B Ryan Garko from the Cleveland Indians. Let’s look at some background information on the players involved in this trade before we go any further.
Ryan Garko
The 28-year-old Garko was drafted in the 2003 First Year Player Draft by the Cleveland Indians. Garko was originally drafted as a catcher but at the major league level he’s played 342 of his career 354 games at first base. So, it’s safe to say that he’s probably not going to be strapping on the tools of ignorance any time soon. By 2005, Baseball America had ranked Garko as the 5th best prospect in the Indians’ farm system. BA noted his strengths as possessing above-average power, having a short stroke to the ball, and using the entire field to hit. Negatives included poor defensive skills (at C and 1B) and calling him a “liability on the basepaths”.
As a player, Garko does a few things well, but nothing great. Over his major league career, he’s hit for some power, but despite hitting 21 HR’s in 2007, he’s not much of a power hitter. His career ISO of .167 is essentially right around the league average mark of .150-ish. His career BB% of 7.4 is right around the league average for BB%. Defensively at just under 3,000 career innings at 1B, he’s rated as a -4 run defender per 150 games played.
Against RHP, Garko is merely adequate — a career .768 OPS — but against LHP, he really mashes. Garko’s career .906 OPS against southpaws should get him into the lineup any time the Giants are playing against LHP.
To summarize: Average-ish bat, crushes LHP, below-average hitter for a 1B against RHP, and plays below-average defense at 1B.
Scott Barnes
Barnes was drafted by the Giants in the 8th round of the 2008 First Year Player Draft out of St. John’s University. Coming into 2009, Barnes was ranked as the 9th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America. Barnes works in the upper-80′s and can touch 92 mph on occasion and also sports solid offspeed offerings between his changeup and curveball. He’s got a clean delivery and a good pickoff move.
This season Barnes has continued where he left off in ’08. In 98 innings pitched in the California League for the San Jose Giants, Barnes has a FIP of 3.93. For a lefty without overpowering stuff, he’s doing a good job of striking out hitters. He’s struck out 99 in his 98 IP. And, at just 21-years-old, he’s age appropriate for his level.
To summarize: Barnes is a solid lefty pitching prospect with good (even if it’s not overpowering) stuff. He’s shown good command in his brief minor league career and solid pitching acumen.
How Much Does Garko Help Us Now?
If you read my post on Travis Ishikawa vs. Adam LaRoche, this should look familiar. Using ZiPS rest-of-season projections, let’s look at the difference (in wins above replacement) between Ryan Garko and Travis Ishikawa from here on out. The results are shockingly similar.
Ishikawa:
Batting Wins Above Average (.317 wOBA, league wOBA .332): –0.87 wins
Defensive Wins Above Average: +0.8 wins
1B Positional Adjustment: –1.25 wins
Replacement Level: +2.25 wins
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= .93 wins above replacement * .4 (or 40% playing time ie: 280 PA’s) = +.372 wins over the remaining seasonGarko:
Batting Wins Above Average (.350 wOBA, league wOBA .332): +1.04 wins
Defensive Wins Above Average: –0.4 wins
1B Positional Adjustment : –1.25 wins
Replacement Level: +2.25 wins
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= 1.64 wins above replacement * .4 (or 40% playing time ie: 280 PA’s) = +.656 wins over the remaining seasonGarko (.656) – Ishikawa (.372) = a difference of .284 wins for the rest of the season.
Note: ZiPS has Garko projected as a .342 wOBA hitter over the remainder of the season, but we will give him a slight bump to .350 for coming to the NL.
Much like the LaRoche WAR calculations, the difference between Garko and Ishikawa over the rest of the season is only about .3 wins. At most, I’d call Garko a .5 win improvement to the Giants from here on out. Doesn’t seem like much, does it? Garko is a good hitter with average power and below-average defense at 1B. He’s been great against LHP, but the difference between Garko and Ishikawa vs. RHP is probably non-existent. Which begs the question: Did the Giants really need to trade for a platoon bat at first base? Isn’t there like 10 guys floating around the minor leagues (or are otherwise easily acquirable) who can play -5 run defense at 1B and mash LHP? For the price, Barnes seems a little steep to give up for a left-side of a first base platoon.
Something we haven’t really talked about is that the Giants will be able to control Garko for the next three years. He’ll be hitting arbitration at the end of this season and what he’ll make is anyone’s guess. Some of his past RBI totals and HR’s will be an asset for him in the negotiations.
I don’t hate this trade necessarily, but I don’t really have a great feeling about it either. The Giants add a player who’s most likely a +2 win player at first base over a full season for a promising pitching prospect. Garko’s likely to get more expensive as he goes through arbitration and that’s where the seperation between what he’s paid to what he’s worth will probably widen. What the Giants shouldn’t do, at all costs, is to try and “get Garko’s bat into the lineup” by sticking him in LF on occasion. He’s a first basemen without another position in the NL and to play him in the OF would be a really bad idea. The Giants OF defense has been one of the team’s best strengths (currently 2nd best OF by UZR in baseball) and putting Garko in LF will do more damage than good.
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I’ll keep this short: Tim Lincecum is pretty good. If you haven’t watched the following clip from Tim’s 15K game last night against the Pirates, do so now.
I agree that it doesn’t seem like much improvement when we delve into the numbers. I’m neither angry or ecstatic about the deal. The big unknown seems to be the AL/NL factor.
Do you have any idea about what Casey Blake’s projections were when he was traded last year? That seemed like a questionable move at the time, but has paid off for LA. Of course, Blake plays a more scarce position.
I’m not saying Garko is going to do what Blake has done. I’m offering it as something that maybe the Giants are banking on or hoping for.
What’s really strange about this deal is that the Giants also brought up Jesus Guzman, sending Bowker down. It’s hard to see how the Giants really gave Bowker much of a chance; they’ve got him pegged now as a 4A hitter, though he certainly didn’t prove them wrong, albeit in a ridiculously small sample size. But what do they do with Guzman now? Unless another trade is on the horizon involving him, it seems to me the Giants gave up an OK pitching prospect for a RH platoon 1B no better than what they already have in AAA.
And Velez? I can imagine Velez in a kind of super-sub utility role. He’s fast, he can play infield and outfield (badly); he’s hit a little better this season. But there’s got to be another deal going for a second baseman. They’ve clearly given up on Downs, and on Frandsen. Surely Juan Uribe isn’t any kind of answer. If only the Giants had a second baseman in the system with proven on-base skills. Someone putting up a .450 OBP in a good pitcher’s park in AA, say. Someone combining the best virtues of, say, Lou Brock and Barry Bonds, but an infielder. Too bad we don’t have anyone like that. . . .
re: Velez: “he’s hit a little better this season.”
Er….what?
Velez, Major Leagues:
2008: .262 / .299 / .382 in 292 PA
2009: .205 / .244 / .231 in 43 PA
Velez, Fresno:
2008: .310 / .372 / .509 in 188 PA
2009: .297 / .340 / .451
So no, he hasn’t hit a little better this year. Also, he’s completely worthless and doesn’t do anything well or even competently.
Hey like
So who went yard in our win tonight? Since we’re apparently all about small sample sizes.
My point is not that Velez should be our starting second baseman. My real point is to express incredulity that Brock Bond doesn’t seem to appear on anyone’s prospect list, what with his .450 OBP in AA. Before trading away valued prospects for 32 year olds, lets look to our system. But like it or not, it looks like the deal’s going down, and it’s Guzman and change for Freddie Sanchez. Fine, he’ll be a handy two month upgrade. But Velez is NOT completely worthless. He’s fast, can play six positions, and can hit a little. He’ll be a useful utility player, if not stretched beyond his capabilities.
I’m not sure how a year and a half of baseball counts as a sample size.
Velez can “play” six positions in as much as he’s capable of standing on the field in those positions and occasionally catching a ball. He’s terrible at all six positions, though, which isn’t a very valuable skill to have. He’s fast, but he’s a terrible base runner – again, not very valuable. He’s never hit much in the minors except for a relatively small sample size last year – while playing in the bandboxes of the PCL and being old for the league.
I’m not crazy about overpaying for Freddy Sanchez either, but that doesn’t make Velez any good. ‘Cause it’s pretty well documented that he’s not.
“I’m not sure how a year and a half of baseball counts as a sample size.”
I meant to say “I’m not sure how a year and a half of baseball counts as a small sample size.”