There’s nothing like 2 weeks of work-related training to sweep you away from baseball. Things I missed: The All-Star Game, most of the Pittsburgh series (this wasn’t a bad thing), and a few other odds-and-ends news items. While I’ve been away, I’ve been jotting things down here and there.
Here’s a few quick thoughts:
- Looking through some WAR leaderboards for the Giants, I was surprised to see Juan Uribe at #4 on the team for wins above replacement with +1.1 wins added. Uribe, a minor league invite, is on pace to put up a season in the +2 win neighborhood — making him exactly a league average player. I liked the addition of Uribe in a utility role, but he’s held down 2B admirably while others have flamed out. He’s not the solution, but he’s shown that he can field the position quite well. His BABIP of .346 is due for a regression, but right now the difference between Juan Uribe and some 2B trade targets is pretty small.
- Is there anything sadder than watching an athlete play a little too long? I’ve enjoyed all the good memories that Rich Aurilia gave the Giants, but it’s time to move on.
- The 2009 John Bowker reminded me a lot of the 2008 John Bowker. In a scant 21 at-bats he struck out 7 times — mostly on down-and-in breaking balls. Bowker, who’s most likely on his way back to AAA when the Giants recall Ryan Sadowski, looked raw at times while batting. I’d like to think the progress he’s made in AAA is real and that he just needs a little more time in the majors. I still believe in Bowkermania.
- It’s old news but Buster Posey has made his way to Fresno. The top hitting prospect in the Giants system gets the promotion after posting a .435 wOBA in the California League. If Posey handles AAA, he could see some late season action with the Giants. I don’t expect the Giants will hand over the keys to the starting catcher position to Posey in 2010, rather my best guess is that they’ll pair him with a veteran catcher (Bengie Molina on a 1-year deal?) and ease him into the job.
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On Deck: Looking at Jason Schmidt’s return to the major leagues with PFX, Finding player comps for the Kung-Fu Panda, and Risers and Fallers in the farm system.
It’s possible Bowker could go down; it’s also possible they could disable Rowand. Depends on doctor’s reports today. If they do send Bowker down, my guess is he stays down for the ten days only, and comes right back up. I can’t imagine July 31 passing without some moves, and I have to think Lewis is on the block.
Completely agree about Richie, but I don’t see him being released, at least not yet. And if he’s not released by July 31, then it’s just a month until roster expansion, at which point, the roster pressure disappears.
Great point about Uribe, but as you correctly point out, a .346 BABIP isn’t sustainable. Still, he probably won’t fall all that far, and there’s no point in trading away the future for a Freddie Sanchez or Marco Scutaro.
As for Posey, sure, it makes sense in an ideal universe to keep Bengie for another year to tutor him. But would Bengie accept that? He’s been pretty vocal about wanting a two year deal. And do we want to spend 8 mill. for a backup catcher? Do we offer him arbitration? We can only cut him to 80% of his last contract if so, which means 6.5 mill. for a backup catcher, even assuming he doesn’t win an arbitration case.
The most value we could get for Bengie would be to not sign him, assuming someone else signed him as a FA. He’d be a Type A FA, and I have to think someone would want him. Those draft picks are much more valuable than a backup catcher, or another year of a starting catcher with a .270 OBP.
If you read Bengie’s blog–which generally is pretty predictable and safe and uninteresting–you occasionally get a sense of how frustrated he is right now about his contract status, and it’s understandable. He’s getting mixed signals from the Giants. On the one hand, he’s not just our starting catcher, he’s the clean-up hitter. On the other hand, he can’t seem to interest the team in an extension, and his replacement is ready to go, in the wings. The team is saying ‘you are uniquely valuable to us. We rely on you to fill a tremendously important job for us. Oh, and also, here’s the guy we’re grooming to take your job. And don’t make plans past October.’ If my boss told me those two things, I’d feel insecure too.
It’s a tough business. But we need to be fairly unsentimental about what we’re going to do. Bengie’s a great clubhouse guy. But the Buster Posey era is upon us. The ghost of Steve Decker haunts our can’t-miss catching prospects, just as the ghost of Todd Linden haunts our AAA slugging OF’s. But life is full of risks, and Buster Posey, in truth, doesn’t seem like all that much of a risk. I expect he’ll struggle a little at the major league level. But we need to get on with it.