In 2008, Bowkermania hit the Giants like a hurricane. A hurricane with little stubby arms that sprayed line drives and dingers all around the ballpark. And then, poof, it was gone in the blink of an eye and 326 at-bats.
Of course, I’m talking about John Bowker. Bowker entered baseball with a bang — blasting a HR in his first career game and driving in 3 runs. And then, the next day, he did it again. Hitting another HR and this time driving in 4 runs. Bowkermania ran wild. John Bowker was playing first base and, I can’t believe it, could this be our first slugging first basemen since Bizzaro Snow’s 2004? You can imagine that it was pretty easy for Giants fans to hop on board with John Bowker.
But, eventually, things started to sputter for John Bowker. His lack of plate discipline (5.5 BB%) and mounting K’s (22.7 K%) put the breaks on his 2008 season. On August 13th he was sent back to AAA Fresno and wasn’t recalled until the rosters expanded in September. In AAA that year, Bowker hit a combined .237/.304/.355 (.301 wOBA / -6.1 runs below average for hitting) and many began to wonder: Was Bowker just a flash in the pan? Some AAA player who got called up and got really hot before fizzling?
Something strange has been happening with Bowker this season in Fresno. Here’s a picture:
John Bowker has, apparently, decided to turn into Bobby Abreu in AAA. Could Bowker’s struggles in the majors actually have led to him altering his approach at the plate? I honestly don’t know. Watching Bowker become more patient in AAA can only be a good sign. It could all turn out to be a mirage and he could go back to his hacking ways at the MLB level, but I’ll be danged if it isn’t nice to see. Bowker is saying all the right things at least.
It’s not just walking, either. Bowker is a top hitter in the, admittedly hitting-friendly, PCL. His wOBA in AAA is currently sitting at .451, that’s good for 3rd in the league. His hitting has played at +26.3 runs above the average PCL hitter. His line in AAA translates to .294/.374/.464 in the majors. Be warned, AAA stats can be deceiving. If anyone needs a word of caution for judging PCL stats, look no further than 29-year-old Hector Luna. Luna is posting a .461 wOBA in the PCL at the moment. He’s hitting for massive power (.300+ ISO) and he’s got a .400+ OBP. This is the same Hector Luna that owns a career .313 wOBA in 703 major league at-bats.
Still, I can’t ignore Bowker’s walk rate and the apparent (and hopeful) change at the dish. If Bowker has truly made some adjustment at the plate, and if it translates to the majors, the Giants could have found themselves a home-grown corner OF option. But, should the Giants call Bowker up now? I’m not sure. The Giants have a glut of OF’s to play — Lewis, Schierholtz, and Torres all should rotate between the open OF spot when Randy Winn and Aaron Rowand are starting. At the moment the team seems favorable to finding Schierholtz playing time. And, unless the Giants trade one (or both) of Lewis or Schierholtz, Bowker won’t have much of a chance to find at-bats.
I’m warm to the idea of moving Lewis or Schierholtz in a trade package as a 2nd or 3rd piece, and if so, Bowker should be first in line to return to San Francisco. I won’t try and piece together trade scenarios because I don’t like reading them myself.
Hopefully sometime this summer, Bowkermania will return to baseball and return for good.
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Comment Starter: What do you make of Bowker’s season in Fresno?
When a guy says he wanted to change his approach, and the numbers show he’s changed his approach, I don’t see much reason to doubt that his improvement is real. But the spectre of Todd Linden lies heavy over us all. There’s only one way to tell if Bowker’s AAA numbers will translate to big league success–bring him up and see what he does. We did that last year, and we were all witness to 350 PA of mediocrity. This year, we’re sort of in a kind of wild card/pennant race type thing. The stakes seem higher.
What you suggest is that we keep doing what we’re doing; use three OF to fill the LF slot, playing Lewis, Torres and Schierholtz depending on pitching matchups. I’m not disagreeing necessarily with you, but it looks a bit like making a decision by not deciding. This isn’t a Lowenstein/Roenicke situation–the strengths and weaknesses of our three OF aren’t that complementary–and with all due apologies, Bochy isn’t Earl Weaver. I think it’s time to gamble on Bowker. I think he has more upside than the alternatives.
The other guy who could move is Randy Winn. I could see someone wanting to pick him up closer to the trade deadline. Trade him for prospects. I doubt we’d get much value for him, though, and that wouldn’t really solve the LF problem–we’d just play Schierholtz in RF everyday. Personally, I think we should keep Winn through the end of this year, let him go as a free agent, and see what John Barr can do with the extra draft pick; I think we’d get better value for him.
I agree with Giantsfan4life. As much as I love seeing Randy’s defense and “clubhouse presence”, I also love seeing more youth come to up and blossom (or get it over with and fail). I know we’re all desperate to see the Giants play in the postseason, but do we really feel this is a world series caliber team? And isn’t that the goal? We know we’re going to have at least LinCYcum, Cain and Zito next year, why not continue the youth movement to try to find a power bat or two? Because that’s all we really need (see: 2001 Diamondbacks: devastating 1-2 pitching, decent hitting). One question: is Randy a Type A,B or C free agent?
@Giantsfan
You make good points and I think I agree with most of them. I do wonder if a player can drastically change his plate discipline in the way that John Bowker has appeared to have done. We’ve heard a million times in baseball that a player was going to work on his plate discipline and 99% of the time, they revert back to their old habits. So, I think it’s OK to have some healthy skepticism about Bowker’s numbers in AAA.
They are very encouraging though. Maybe he’s in the 1%.
>> What you suggest is that we keep doing what we’re doing; use three OF to fill the LF slot, playing Lewis, Torres and Schierholtz depending on pitching matchups.
Yes and no. Even with Bowker’s success in AAA, how much better than Nate Schierholtz is he right-now? He could be a little better, but I’m betting the difference isn’t huge. My hesitance to call Bowker up unless there is room for him to play is mostly based on that. I’d rather not see Bochy sit him on the bench for on-and-off PT. If he comes up, he should start full-time.
>> The other guy who could move is Randy Winn. I could see someone wanting to pick him up closer to the trade deadline. Trade him for prospects.
I agree and this is where things can get hard. If the Giants want to contend (I personally don’t view us as playoff contenders, but I bet the FO would disagree with me) then they need to keep Winn. On a wins value basis, he’s one of our top position players.
@NielHbrand
It boils down to this: If the Giants think they can sneak into the playoffs, they’ll keep Randy Winn. If not, they’ll be receptive to trading him. I’m pretty sure the team sees itself as a playoff contender right now.
That scares me a little.
>> One question: is Randy a Type A,B or C free agent?
The last rankings I saw had Winn as a Type A.
@Chris
The key point, and one on which we agree, is whether or not Bowker’s AAA approach will translate to the major league level. Only way to find out is to bring him up and see what happens, like we did last year with Burriss, Lewis, Ishikawa, Gillaspie, Rohlinger, etc. Last year, we were clearly not contenders, so what made sense was to give some Major league playing time to every prospect or quasi-prospect in our system. We did that, and one great result was the discovery of Sandoval. Bowker could be genuinely, measurably better than Schierholtz, whose biggest weakness is plate discipline. But he might also be a 4A bust, as he appeared to be last year. So how much do we feel like gambling?
I agree that if the FO sees us as contenders, they won’t be interested in trading Winn, nor probably in making much of a move with Bowker; what they will try is to put together a package for another bat. The names that are being bandied about aren’t all that appealing–Matt Holliday, Derrek Lee, Adam Dunn. And the FO has already declared that Baumgardner, Alderson, Posey and Villalona are off-limits. That doesn’t leave us much to trade with.
The challenge is to build a team that might contend now without jeopardizing the future. I think the lower levels of the Giants’ farm system is filled with some genuinely exciting prospects, some mentioned, plus Neal, Kieschnick, Rafael Rodriguez, and this year’s draftees. On the other hand, all those guys could wash out too. And we’re in the wild card lead as of today. We could sneak into the playoffs despite our run differential, and in a short series, with our pitching, be a really scary team to face.
One more complicating factor, and not wanting to jinx anyone or anything, but we’ve been fantastically injury-lucky so far this season. We’re one outfield collision from starting Ben Copeland in CF.
Oh, and Randy Winn would have been a 2008 Type B Free Agent. Bengie Molina was a Type A. Elias releases their rankings after the season, but it’s unlikely Winn would be a Type A after this year. That’s okay: a Type B still merits a sandwich pick.
I was considering adding your app on Facebook until I noticed under Selected Content on your app page it has the headline, “Giants Sign Juan Uribe to Minor League Deal.”
@Zetsuboushita
Why do you hate me so??
@Spambot
BECAUSE YOU HATE THE GIANTS AND LOVE JUAN URIBE
I WILL CONVINCE YOU!
/changes domain name to UribeCityBall.com