Tim Lincecum is good. It’s almost like he should get some sort of award. Something like: “Award for Guy Who Throws Good” or something. Nah, it’ll never happen. Watching Lincecum throw another CG against the A’s last night was just what the doctor ordered after watching Sanchez struggle against a largely punchless hitting A’s team.
Some stats re: Lincecum’s dominance this season.
- His FIP now sits at 2.08. That’s the 2nd best FIP in baseball — only Zack Greinke has a better FIP (1.90). Even if you normalize his HR rate, his xFIP is 2.80.
- Lincecum’s 10.63 strikeouts per 9 innings ranks him 3rd in baseball. Only Justin Verlander (10.84) and Javier Vasquez (10.64) squeak by Lincecum.
- Lincecum is punching out hitters via the strikeout as usual, but what’s really encouraging is that he’s walking fewer hitters this year. Lincecum’s maturation at the big league level is pretty amazing. During his first two years at Washington Lincecum was wild, walking nearly 6+ hitters a game. His BB/9 dropped to 4.5 during his final year at Washington and since he joined the Giants, he’s reduced it even more. In ’07 with the Giants, Lincecum walked 4 hitters per 9. In 2008 he walked 3.3 hitters per 9 and this year he’s lowered it to 2.4 hitters per 9. To be able to cut your walks like that against the highest level of competition speaks to the special talent that Lincecum possesses.
- I think most would agree that Lincecum’s changeup has been a large reason that he’s had so much success early in his career. According to Fangraph’s pitch type linear values — Lincecum’s changeup is the best changeup in baseball.
Lincecum finished the night with a line of: 9 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, and 12 SO.
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I thought it would be fun to check up on the Giants and baserunning up to this point in the season. Baseball Prospectus has a handy (and free) player baserunning section on their website. The metric — EQBRR — is defined as:
Equivalent Base Running Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player’s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table. EqBRR is calculated as the sum of various baserunning components: Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR).
In short, how many runs above or below average a player chipped in with his feet. To the numbers.
| NAME | EQBRR |
| Fred Lewis | 2.77 |
| Randy Winn | 1.74 |
| Emmanuel Burriss | 0.93 |
| Aaron Rowand | 0.69 |
| Juan Uribe | 0.55 |
| Travis Ishikawa | 0.50 |
| Nate Schierholtz | 0.48 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.48 |
| Andres Torres | 0.45 |
| Eugenio Velez | 0.22 |
| Rich Aurilia | -0.20 |
| Edgar Renteria | -0.83 |
| Bengie Molina | -3.26 |
Even though he’s struggling, Fred Lewis is still adding postive runs when he’s running the bases. Randy Winn, as usual, is a very steady and solid baserunner. He’s added almost +2 runs to this point in the season by running the bases well. Most of the rest of the team shakes out as average-ish on the base paths. Bengie Molina, probably the worst baserunner in baseball, has been docked about -3 runs to this point because of his lack of baserunning skills. But, fear not Bengie, Melvin Mora (-5.6 runs) and Carlos Lee (-4.4 runs) aren’t burning up the base paths either.
Baserunning is often an overlooked component to a player’s value. Most players won’t add much to their total lines by baserunning but occasionally you’ll get players like Fred Lewis that might add up to +5 runs — or a half-win — to their total value just by running the bases well. Or, you’ll get players like Bengie Molina who could lose up to a half-win by their baserunning.
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The above baserunning numbers really make me think that Fred Lewis does a lot of things that add to his value that are pretty easy to overlook. His hitting has been in a bit of funk lately, but his components really aren’t that far off from his 2008 season.
| Component | 2008 | 2009 |
| BB% | 9.8 | 10.2 |
| K% | 26.5 | 29.9 |
| ISO | .158 | .139 |
| BABIP | .367 | .341 |
He’s walking slightly more, striking out a little more, and hitting for a little less power. His BABIP has dropped from .367 to .340 and that might very well be indicative of his true talent BABIP level. Maybe Fred is more of a .340 BABIP guy than a .360+ BABIP guy. But, otherwise, he’s pretty close to the same guy that he was in 2008.
He’s still playing above-average defense in LF — currently around +6 runs per 150 games — and he’s still running the bases well. This all begs the question: What exactly did the Giants expect from Lewis in 2009? The preseason talk was mostly centered around him hitting 3rd and somehow, magically, transforming into a 20 HR hitter. It seems to me that the Giants saw Fred Lewis and were guilty of wish casting. Instead of focusing on the things he’s done well in his major and minor league career, the Giants’ had warped expectations of what he should be. The truth is that he’s going to strikeout, but he’s also going to walk and he’s going to hit for average power. He’s going to look bad on defense sometimes, but he’s still better than your average slow-footed LF by a half-win or more.
I like Andres Torres as much as the next fan. He’s been a really great addition to this team. He can defend in CF and he’s fast and he can handle the bat some. He’s a fine player. But he really shouldn’t be starting over Lewis against RHP. If the Giants want to sit Fred against tough lefties, I’m OK with that. But yanking him out of the lineup against RHP for doing pretty much as well as he always has is weird.
The Giants need to stop wish casting with Fred and frankly, and accurately, examine his strengths and weaknesses. The Giants will be a better team, both in the short term and long term, for it.
Something I wanted to work into the main article, but I didn’t was that in 2008, Fred Lewis hit an insane: .323/.320/.781 on flyballs. That’s good for a sOPS+ of 182. Fred hit 82% better than the league average hitter for flyballs. That’s just incredible. And not repeatable most likely for Lewis.
Flyballs are turned into outs more than groundballs, but they do more damage when they fall for hits. Lewis was batting over .300 on flyballs in 2008. Even Albert Pujols “only” hit .234/.223/.766 on flyballs in 2008, or an sOPS+ of 135.
This year Fred is hitting .135/.135/.514 on flyballs. That’s an sOPS+ of 49. He’s under the league average for flyballs by 51%. That’s a huge hit for any batter to take. Combine that with his drop in BABIP and you’ve got a struggling hitter. Since most of his underlying numbers are the same, I would think that if his average on flyballs moves back towards league average or at least something respectable and than the current sOPS+ 49 that he’s dealing with, Lewis should see a bump in his offensive production.
Any thoughts?
The flyball data you shared is very interesting. And of course, a sOPS+ is a statistical outlier. Among those flyballs which fell in in 2008 were 11 triples, 25 doubles. The point you’re making seems very well supported: that as this season progresses, a few of those long fly balls will find triples alley again, and we’ll see his sOPS+ rise some.
Some. A bump in his offensive production. Sure. But the guy’s 28 years old. This is who he is. This isn’t Pedro Sandoval, whose growth has already been remarkable, and who’s only 22.
I think you’re right–Lewis could be poised for a stronger second half. But what does that mean for the long-term success of this Giants’ team? We can break it down several ways: Lewis vs. Schierholtz, either of them vs. Bowker, Lewis v. High A Studs.
So Lewis v. Schierholtz: The case for Lewis is that, of all the possibilities, Fred Lewis will work the count. He’s still getting on base. Well, a .341 OBP isn’t spectacular, but he’s basically third on the team, behind Sandoval and Rowand, both of whom have drawn fewer walks than Fred, in way more PA. (I’m not counting Torres, with his 56 PA.) In a lineup with Molina and Sandoval, do we really want another free swinger like Schierholtz? Short term, while Lewis puts in his work in the batting cage, sure–giving Lewis a few days off made sense. But Schierholtz is the definition of a fourth outfielder/PH. A guy with a sweet line drive stroke, who comes off the bench swinging the bat, but with maybe some other deficiencies-like plate discipline–that prevent him playing everyday. He’s just a little young to be starting in that role already. (Torres is the definition of the fifth outfielder–really fast, brilliant defensively, and, as a hitter, not an automatic out if you use him on a double-switch.)
That leaves Lewis v. Bowker. And of course we don’t know that Bowker, if given the LF job, would play significantly better than he did last year. But he’s been SO brilliant in AAA, and most of it seems to come down to improved plate discipline. A .300/.400./.540 line, more or less what BP predicts, doesn’t seem out of line. And he’s three years younger than Lewis. And considerably worse defensively.
So your point is well-taken Chris. Lewis has probably been somewhat unlucky this season, and we should expect a stronger second half from him. At the same time, it’s fair to suggest that LF is still a problem spot for the Giants. And before trying to solve it via trade, we might–emphasis on might–have a solution in AAA. And guys like Thomas Neal and Roger Kieschnick seem promising in high A, and could play themselves into the long-term picture. I like BP projections for Neal–an EQA of .270, for a 21 year old. That should rise.
I meant Pablo Sandoval. Arrggg!
Lincecum has the best Changeup in baseball, not the third best.
@Nibbler
I was going by the ‘per 100 pitches’ linear weight, but it probably makes more sense to use the total value at this point in the season instead of pro-rating things.
The two people above him on wCH/C are Braden Looper and Kenshin Kawakami. Braden Looper has thrown 1 changeup all season while Kenshin has thrown 11.
So they definitely should not be anywhere in the best changeup discussion.
Yup, you’re totally right.