*I hope I’m not scaring away potential readers.
Because OGC asked nicely in the comments section of the Zito FX post, here’s two velocity plots for Zito’s 2008 season with the Giants. The first is his overall average fastball velocity — as identified by PFX — month-by-month. The second plot is his velocity by home start. The 2nd plot should be more accurate, since we’re removing any stadium bias from his velocity readings.
Zito’s velocity from March (which you should note, the sample size is small because it’s just one start) to May was really, really below average. The average fastball in the National League last season was between 90-91mph. In the early months of the season, Zito was struggling to get past 84mph and he dipped below 82mph more than once. From early July to the end of the season, Zito did see an overall increase on his fastball velocity. His average was much closer to 85mph — an increase in +1 mph from earlier in the season — and he touched 87 a few times but he mostly worked in the 85-86mph range. Still a below average fastball.
You should realize that these graphs only deal with velocity on Zito’s fastball and not other important things like his ability to control the pitch or what happened when batters swung at the pitch. So, keep that in mind before you trumpet Zito’s return to form. If I get the time, I’ll examine those things in the near future, too.
Any word on no. 75′s velocity so far this spring? He–supposedly–buffed up with Brian Wilson this winter, tossing balls across Malibu Canyon or somesuch.
I wonder if some biomechanical genius could be hired by the organization to figure out why a strong, healthy, world-class athlete who is 6-4 and 200+ pounds can’t throw a decent fastball. If you had a $120+ million investment in a guy like that, wouldn’t you try to find a solution?
Mark,
I’ve heard that in the last couple of Zito starts were he got knocked around, his velo was pretty poor. Like in the 82-84mph range.
Thanks for the charts!
There was clearly improvement in his fastball as the season went on. Anyone remember when his guru, the Mets former pitching coach, Rick Peterson (I think that’s his name), was released by the Mets, enabling him to give private tutoring to Zito?
What needs to be remembered is 1) lefties are held to a lower standard for velocity, and 2) Zito was pitching very effectively in his early 20′s with a 87 MPH fastball. And, it should be noted, Jamie Moyer is performing just nicely with a fastball that probably is the slowest in the majors and, as Chris noted, it’s what you do with the ball, and not just the velocity, that will have a huge impact on how the pitcher gets out hitters.
Clearly, from the data, he’s not back to his former form that he had when he was younger and doing very well, but he’s almost all the way back, at least last season.
I worry a little bit about his 82-84 MPH during spring, but he could be slowly working himself into shape for the regular season, plus he might be taking it easy to save himself for the regular season, and also some vets don’t bring things up a notch until the regular season starts. Many vets complain about the length of spring training and the WBC made it even longer.
Of course, perhaps none of these apply to him, but I would think that whatever he discovered last season that added 2 MPH to his velocity should have stuck, and thus he should do better in the regular season. Plus there is still some time before the season starts, time enough for him to start doing better.
Good point OGC re Moyer, he’s the slowest of the slow but still gets guys out. Good news today, eh? “Six strong” and “no. 75″ haven’t been in the headlines together much in the last two years!