I’ve read some of his earlier BA scouting reports that say he has the potential to reach 20 home runs annually but I’ve always read them as: “20 HRs is his max ceiling” which seems appropriate-ish. Kind of like how Angel Villalona has “40 HR power” he might never reach that number and it’s more of an upper-end guesstimate of his player-skills.

Just in case, I’ll re-lay out my points for the topic at hand.

1. Fred might have the tools to hit 20 HRs, but moving him to a new batting order spot isn’t going to do anything.

2. I fear that a more aggressive approach means a sacrifice in OBP. It’s one of the skiills that Fred has always done semi-well (and yes, he’s always struck out a lot).

3. It’s just really classic Giants move. Taking one of their more patient hitters (on a team that’s never walked much outside of Bonds) and trying to turn him into Jose Castillo. That just seems like a bad idea to me.

We’ll see!

I think there are good signs that this is possible for him. He’s acknowledged that he wasn’t reacting to pitches, but was tentative as he was learning to be a certain type of hitter. Being tentative will certainly hold back a players power production. He has demonstrated power in key instances. He has shown the ability and skill to hit for power, so that scouts thought he could do that, he just hasn’t done it in games yet

Thus, I understand all the skepticism. I think it’s early enough in Lansford’s career as our hitting coach to just say, “OK, don’t really make a lot of sense, but you were a great hitter, let’s see if you can do something better with Lewis.” Or Burriss. Or whomever.

Except, based on his “tools” it SHOULD exist. He’s big enough and strong enough and his swing produces plenty of power.

It doesn’t express itself because of an approach that conflicts with the goal of hitting homeruns. He’s reluctant to pull the ball and he lays off pitches he should be trying to hit into the cheap seats.

It’s not unprecedented for a player to have a sudden surge in HR production precisely at Lewis’s age and for precisely the reasons we’re discussing here, that is, he’s being asked to become a “run producer”.

See:

McClouth, Nate.
Rollins, Jimmy

To name a few recent and prominent examples.

The question is, are we doing the right thing with this particular player?

I’m worried we are not, not because of Fred, but because our track record is not good.

>> But that’s just it. As far as the Giants are concerned, Lewis DOES have that skill set. It’s just been dormant until now because of his “leadoff hitter” mentality.

OR it’s been dormant because it doesn’t exist! What hasn’t this skill shown up at any level he’s ever played at? Over 2,200 minor league ABs it never showed up. Damn, that is one dormant skill.

My main gripe is that the Giants seem to think he’ll hit +25 HRs this year just hitting in a new batting order spot.

>> Lewis possesses the requisite ability – i.e. strength, swing leverage – to hit prodigious amounts of homeruns.

I agree that he’s got the tools but I think that changing certain parts of his game (patience at the plate) could negatively affect others.

As for your caveats, I think I can mostly agree with them (especially #1-2). I just don’t think a change in the batting order will be the cure-all for the Giants power drought.

We’ll see, and again, I’d love to be proven wrong on this.

But that’s just it. As far as the Giants are concerned, Lewis DOES have that skill set. It’s just been dormant until now because of his “leadoff hitter” mentality. He’s spent his entire career taking pitches that he should’ve been looking to drive.

No, you can’t “act” 7-ft tall, because height is not a skill. Neither is speed, nor strength. Etc.

Lewis possesses the requisite ability – i.e. strength, swing leverage – to hit prodigious amounts of homeruns. What he’s lacking is the “skill” element, the part of homerun hitting that is learned/developed over time via physical repetition (practice) and a focused intellectual approach (mentality).

Caveats:

1) I don’t think 2 months of spring training is enough time to make that drastic a change.

2) I’m not convinced that a player as far along in his career as Lewis can “unlearn” what he’s already been programmed to do.

3) I don’t think Fred Lewis’ abilities are *best* suited for that particular skill set (homerun hitter).

Those caveats aside, I do think Fred Lewis is capable of being an adequate 3 hitter. And I do think the guy is capable of knocking 20 balls out of the yard every year. But I just don’t know that it’ll happen all at once.

I also agree with Marcello in the long term he shouldn’t be considered the answer for the #3 spot. Just with a lineup that can’t threaten a wet paper bag that’s enough soda to become a place holder for a hart of the order slot.

I missed that “and” part of your HRs and 3Bs comment. 30 might be pushing it, in total, but at least it’s semi-realistic.