Bad Ideas File #2851

@Marcello I've read some of his earlier BA scouting reports that say he has the potential to reach 20 home runs annually but I've always read them as: "20 HRs is his max ceiling" which seems appropriate-ish. Kind of like how Angel Villalona has "40 HR power" he might never reach that number and it's more of an upper-end guesstimate of his player-skills. Just in case, I'll re-lay out my points for the topic at hand. 1. Fred might have the tools to hit 20 HRs, but moving him to a new batting order spot isn't going to do anything. 2. I fear that a more aggressive approach means a sacrifice in OBP. It's one of the skiills that Fred has always done semi-well (and yes, he's always struck out a lot). 3. It's just really classic Giants move. Taking one of their more patient hitters (on a team that's never walked much outside of Bonds) and trying to turn him into Jose Castillo. That just seems like a bad idea to me. We'll see!

You know, I've never seen these scouting reports that say Lewis has power potential. In fact, everything I ever remember reading said the opposite, that his power was limited. I'm not saying they don't exist, I've just never seen them.

The thing is, Lewis has the skill set to hit 20 HR, that's been his label since he first started on the Giants prospect radar. The projection of his growth and development was that he was probably going to figure out first how to be a good enough hitter to lead off the lineup, but that with experience and growth, he would move to an RBI spot in the lineup. I think there are good signs that this is possible for him. He's acknowledged that he wasn't reacting to pitches, but was tentative as he was learning to be a certain type of hitter. Being tentative will certainly hold back a players power production. He has demonstrated power in key instances. He has shown the ability and skill to hit for power, so that scouts thought he could do that, he just hasn't done it in games yet Thus, I understand all the skepticism. I think it's early enough in Lansford's career as our hitting coach to just say, "OK, don't really make a lot of sense, but you were a great hitter, let's see if you can do something better with Lewis." Or Burriss. Or whomever.

>>OR it’s been dormant because it doesn’t exist! What hasn’t this skill shown up at any level he’s ever played at? Over 2,200 minor league ABs it never showed up. Damn, that is one dormant skill.<< Except, based on his "tools" it SHOULD exist. He's big enough and strong enough and his swing produces plenty of power. It doesn't express itself because of an approach that conflicts with the goal of hitting homeruns. He's reluctant to pull the ball and he lays off pitches he should be trying to hit into the cheap seats. It's not unprecedented for a player to have a sudden surge in HR production precisely at Lewis's age and for precisely the reasons we're discussing here, that is, he's being asked to become a "run producer". See: McClouth, Nate. Rollins, Jimmy To name a few recent and prominent examples.

Lewis was 4th on the team with 45 XBH last year (25 2B, 11 3B, 9 HR). If he's healthier, smarter, more experienced, and swagger-ier, he can certainly improve. I think we all agree on that. The question is, are we doing the right thing with this particular player? I'm worried we are not, not because of Fred, but because our track record is not good.

This is fun, some good dialogue flying around: >> But that’s just it. As far as the Giants are concerned, Lewis DOES have that skill set. It’s just been dormant until now because of his “leadoff hitter” mentality. OR it's been dormant because it doesn't exist! What hasn't this skill shown up at any level he's ever played at? Over 2,200 minor league ABs it never showed up. Damn, that is one dormant skill. My main gripe is that the Giants seem to think he'll hit +25 HRs this year just hitting in a new batting order spot. >> Lewis possesses the requisite ability - i.e. strength, swing leverage - to hit prodigious amounts of homeruns. I agree that he's got the tools but I think that changing certain parts of his game (patience at the plate) could negatively affect others. As for your caveats, I think I can mostly agree with them (especially #1-2). I just don't think a change in the batting order will be the cure-all for the Giants power drought. We'll see, and again, I'd love to be proven wrong on this.

"Because you can act a skill that you don’t have?" But that's just it. As far as the Giants are concerned, Lewis DOES have that skill set. It's just been dormant until now because of his "leadoff hitter" mentality. He's spent his entire career taking pitches that he should've been looking to drive. No, you can't "act" 7-ft tall, because height is not a skill. Neither is speed, nor strength. Etc. Lewis possesses the requisite ability - i.e. strength, swing leverage - to hit prodigious amounts of homeruns. What he's lacking is the "skill" element, the part of homerun hitting that is learned/developed over time via physical repetition (practice) and a focused intellectual approach (mentality). Caveats: 1) I don't think 2 months of spring training is enough time to make that drastic a change. 2) I'm not convinced that a player as far along in his career as Lewis can "unlearn" what he's already been programmed to do. 3) I don't think Fred Lewis' abilities are *best* suited for that particular skill set (homerun hitter). Those caveats aside, I do think Fred Lewis is capable of being an adequate 3 hitter. And I do think the guy is capable of knocking 20 balls out of the yard every year. But I just don't know that it'll happen all at once.

If Mr. Lewis is healthy and they don't mess up his approach (or bat Molinia in front of him) I think low 30’s is very achievable. I also agree with Marcello in the long term he shouldn’t be considered the answer for the #3 spot. Just with a lineup that can’t threaten a wet paper bag that’s enough soda to become a place holder for a hart of the order slot.

@Dave I missed that "and" part of your HRs and 3Bs comment. 30 might be pushing it, in total, but at least it's semi-realistic.

Chris: HR's and Triples. By definition either brings in runners (if teh team has OBP).

@Mr Lomez, 1. Agree, Lewis has never really shown a lot of power in his career. At any level. 2. Sure, mental toughness matters. But the Giants are telling Lewis to fundamentally do-things-differently than he's done in the past. It's like this team hates OBP. I'm just not sure the Power of Positive Thinking is going to = DINGERZ! Love it or hate it, Lewis' plate discipline is one of his strengths. Should the Giants start telling Tim Lincecum to throw knuckle balls because they've got a wild hair up their ass? 3. Yeah, I get it. You pump your dudes up. I'm not surprised at all, but it doesn't make this particular exercise in futility worthwhile. Remember when we pumped up Dan Ortmeier because he was totally awesome in 150 ABs at the end of that one year and he was totally going to lock down that 1B position and hit for a bunch of power. Yup. 4. >> If anything, homerun hitters tend to get on base more, since they’re more selective. That's just it, they want Lewis to be LESS SELECTIVE and swing more! Swing swing swing! Swingy McSwingerson! Swingggggg. My biggest gripe is that I do not understand the Giants mentality of: "We'll move him to the #3 and (POOF) you're a power hitter now!" Uhh, yeah. Maybe there's a study out there showing that batting order would influence something like hitting for power, but I haven't seen it, and when I about it, it just doesn't make sense to me. I'd love to be proven wrong in this case. >> The guy SHOULD be hitting more HR’s! He already K’s like a HR hitter. Why not start acting like one? Because you can act a skill that you don't have? I wonder if I can act like I'm 7ft tall. Lewis has never had HUGE DINGER HITTING POWER. He just doesn't have that skill-set as a player. It hasn't materialized at any level of his career.

A few comments: 1) Yes it's a bad idea to take a player and tell him to do the opposite of what he does well. I'm not sure why Lansford and co. are trying to force Lewis into this role, as opposed to say Ishikawa, who seems more likely to put up middle of the order kind of numbers. 2) But, I think you're painfully wrong about discounting the effect of player mentality. Grossly. Conspicuously. Utterly. Wrong. I'm not saying that telling Fred Lewis to walk up to the plate with his lean on is going to make him hit more homeruns. But if he's going to be that kind of player, he first has to think like that kind of player. He has to project confidence. He has to be cocky. He has to believe that he's better than the guy he's facing. Part of being a great athlete is thinking, nay, knowing you're a great athlete. 3) We can agree that at least part of a coach's job is playing psychologist, right? Especially in baseball. Frankly, I'm surprised that this kind of story comes as a surprise to you. 4) And by the way, since when does hitting a lot of homeruns come at the expense of .OBP? If anything, homerun hitters tend to get on base more, since they're more selective. In the case of Lewis, this is almost certainly true. The guy SHOULD be hitting more HR's! He already K's like a HR hitter. Why not start acting like one?

@Dave If Lewis hits 30-35 HRs this season, I'll change this website to a LOLCAT image depository. Or, eat my hat. Whichever you prefer. @JCBUTTER Yes. @Marcello I'm putting you in the time-out corner for using the phrase "Pop". -10 points.

Lewis, assuming last year was a true reflection of his skills, would be a solid leadoff hitter. He's got the speed teams desperately want from the leadoff man, above average OBP skills, and enough POP that he can put himself in scoring position without stealing a base. The Giants, assuming this isn't just fluff talk, are morons.

The Giants are a really stupid team sometimes.

Hopefully most of that “rational” is just breakin’ wind for media purposes. If we get the Lewis like last year with a green light to go after a particular pitch early in the count hitting #3 then I am happy. If he gets 30- 35 Hr’s & triples this year we got something. Batting him behind Molinia was just dumb even with our smothered by a wet paper bag offense of the last couple seasons. Now just no 310 -320 OBP in the #1 or #2 slots please. And If Sandoval can be consistently good enough to allow Molinia being dropped to the 5 hole.