Renteria Player Value Graph

Published by on February 19, 2009 | 6 Responses

Yesterday we talked a little bit about Edger Renteria. Mostly in the context of some batted ball data over the last three years. But, today, we’ll be using one of my player value graphs to examine Renteria from 2002-08. The following graph examines both offense and defense to determine the overall value of a player.

A few quick bits of information regarding the graph:

  1. Everything is pro-rated to 700 PAs.
  2. The defense line includes a positional adjustment for the position played. In this case, Renteria gets a bump for playing shortstop.
  3. Total Value = Offense + Defense

On to the graph:

renteriavaluesmall3

You can see some previous Giants depicted using these player value graphs, here. A few things are explained in that post and it might be a decent place to start if you’re unfamiliar with these graphs.

Thoughts:

  • Immediately by looking at the graph you can see Renteria’s two great years in 2003 and 2007. In both years, his bat played nearly +30 runs above average. Remember that everything is getting pro-rated to 700 PAs, so Renteria’s actual real world numbers might be a little off if we compared them to his pro-rated numbers. A shortstop putting up +30 runs by his bat alone is a superstar — if he’s not a Michael Young-esque defender. His bat took a dip in 2004, falling to -10 runs below average, but it rebounded over the next three years until it fell again last season in Detroit.

  • I found it interesting that Renteria’s bat had more variance than his glove. In his peak hitting years, Renteria’s BABIP was .348 (2003) and .375 (2007). He strikes me as a hitter that will occasionally post a .340+ BABIP and have a very strong season at the plate, but even if he’s hitting closer to his career averages — in regards to BABIP — he’s in the area of an average hitter.

  • Renteria’s defense has received a lot of criticism and by looking at our graph, it looks a little unfair. He’s definitely dropped from his 2002-03 years, but he’s remained respectable from 2005-08. If you look at this defensive line from ’05-’08,  he’s held steady. If you look at his bUZR numbers for our time range (non positional adjustments included) you’ll get the following scores: +5.7, +6.8, +0.3, -3.6, -2.3, -3.3, and -1. He’s no longer an above-average defender at shortstop, but when you consider his peer group, he’s definitely respectable with the glove. He’s not going to play defense like Omar Vizquel but he’s also not going to embarrass himself.

  • CHONE has Renteria projected as a -6 run shortstop next season which seems reasonable. I wouldn’t be surprised if he beat that projection by a couple of runs.

All things considered, signing Renteria to a 2-year, $18.5M deal wasn’t a bad move by the Giants. He’s got a good chance to be a +2 win player for the 2009 season. If he reaches the +2 win range, he’ll be fairly paid for his services. As we’ve seen with our graph, his defense really isn’t as bad as most have made it out to be. He’s not a glove-man at short, that’s for sure, but he’s been respectable if nothing else.

By looking at the graph, you can see that Renteria’s bat has varied quite a bit over the last 7 years. Most of the projections — CHONE, Marcel, and Oliver — have Renteria projected as a league average hitter — slightly better or slightly worse — for 2009. But, there’s always a chance that he posts a .340+ BABIP season and beats those projections. Even if Renteria hits slightly below his career BABIP, he’s got a good chance to be worth around +2 wins.

Signing Edgar Renteria was a good move that addressed a legitimate issue on the team without committing more than 2-years to fix the problem.

Comment Starter: Your thoughts on Renteria?

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Chris
Chris

>> And I would note that 2 of his recent low offensive seasons were in the AL. He knows how to hit in NL parks, AL not so much. I don't buy this, really. He's shown in his career that his BABIP changes a good bit between his really good seasons and his average ones. What does "knowing how to hit in NL parks" even mean? The AL has been the tougher league in recent memory.

obsessivegiantscompu
obsessivegiantscompu

Additional info that Baseball Forecaster says about BABIP: Every hitter establishes his own individual hit rate that stabilizes over time. A batter whose seasonal hit rate varies significantly from the hit rate he has established over teh preceding three seasons is likely to improve or regress to his individual hit rate mean. Three year hit rate levels strongly predict a player's hit rate the following year. I think he was a strategic acquisition. Instead of hoping that all four rookies (or near-rookies) are able to hit as their past suggests, we acquire a player at a position with no depth, upgrading both offensively and defensively over what we had internally, and paying a fair price. And, if he returns to former goodness, he would be one of our best hitters on the team. Meanwhile, it won't really hold back any top prospect, Burriss should really be in AAA this year if he wasn't rushed to the majors in 2008 (though it should be noted that he handled himself well, unlike Bocock, so it wasn't like he was overmatched or anything). There, he can work on Lansford's suggestions to bring more power to his game, since he has the guns to do more than he has so far, according to Lansford. And if he plays well enough to win 2B, then Frandsen could tip his cap to him, because I think Frandsen will do well and Burriss would have to do a lot to beat him out. And I would note that 2 of his recent low offensive seasons were in the AL. He knows how to hit in NL parks, AL not so much.

MrLomez
MrLomez

He also has a "renewed sense of urgency." He started doing Pilates in the off-season. And he's back to "having fun, playing the game [he] loved as a kid."

marcello
marcello

If Renteria has another .340+ BABIP year (oh please oh please oh please), he'll pretty much earn his entire contract in one year. Also, did you hear? He's in the best shape of his LIFE! So he's got that going for him.

Chris
Chris

@Mark League average BABIP tends to be around .300. For hitters, BABIP makes more sense in the context of a player's career instead of just comparing everyone to the baseline of .300. Hitters have more influence over their BABIP than pitchers do. For example, even though league BABIP has tended to be around .300, Renteria has a career BABIP of .323. Certain player-skills like foot speed and batted-ball types affect BABIP. So, hitters have a little more control over it than pitchers do. The Renteria signing is good from the depth perspective like you mentioned. It's a pretty good safeguard so that we don't have to experience Bochoa again.

MarkOC
MarkOC

What is a league-average BABIP? I don't have a good intuitive sense of BABIP yet. I mean, when is a BABIP a good BABIP and when is a BABIP a bad BABIP? (Bad BABIP sounds like something I need to tell my doctor about.) I was lukewarm-to-unhappy about Renteria at first, but it was clear the Giants lacked confidence in Burris. And we had no depth at SS. Overall, he's a decent pickup. If he stays healthy and gives us a 2006-like performance or better, that'll be great. (I'd like to see Frandsen at 2B and Burris at AAA, but we'll see.)