Yesterday we talked a little bit about Edger Renteria. Mostly in the context of some batted ball data over the last three years. But, today, we’ll be using one of my player value graphs to examine Renteria from 2002-08. The following graph examines both offense and defense to determine the overall value of a player.
A few quick bits of information regarding the graph:
- Everything is pro-rated to 700 PAs.
- The defense line includes a positional adjustment for the position played. In this case, Renteria gets a bump for playing shortstop.
- Total Value = Offense + Defense
On to the graph:
You can see some previous Giants depicted using these player value graphs, here. A few things are explained in that post and it might be a decent place to start if you’re unfamiliar with these graphs.
- Immediately by looking at the graph you can see Renteria’s two great years in 2003 and 2007. In both years, his bat played nearly +30 runs above average. Remember that everything is getting pro-rated to 700 PAs, so Renteria’s actual real world numbers might be a little off if we compared them to his pro-rated numbers. A shortstop putting up +30 runs by his bat alone is a superstar — if he’s not a Michael Young-esque defender. His bat took a dip in 2004, falling to -10 runs below average, but it rebounded over the next three years until it fell again last season in Detroit.
- I found it interesting that Renteria’s bat had more variance than his glove. In his peak hitting years, Renteria’s BABIP was .348 (2003) and .375 (2007). He strikes me as a hitter that will occasionally post a .340+ BABIP and have a very strong season at the plate, but even if he’s hitting closer to his career averages — in regards to BABIP — he’s in the area of an average hitter.
- Renteria’s defense has received a lot of criticism and by looking at our graph, it looks a little unfair. He’s definitely dropped from his 2002-03 years, but he’s remained respectable from 2005-08. If you look at this defensive line from ’05-’08, he’s held steady. If you look at his bUZR numbers for our time range (non positional adjustments included) you’ll get the following scores: +5.7, +6.8, +0.3, -3.6, -2.3, -3.3, and -1. He’s no longer an above-average defender at shortstop, but when you consider his peer group, he’s definitely respectable with the glove. He’s not going to play defense like Omar Vizquel but he’s also not going to embarrass himself.
- CHONE has Renteria projected as a -6 run shortstop next season which seems reasonable. I wouldn’t be surprised if he beat that projection by a couple of runs.
All things considered, signing Renteria to a 2-year, $18.5M deal wasn’t a bad move by the Giants. He’s got a good chance to be a +2 win player for the 2009 season. If he reaches the +2 win range, he’ll be fairly paid for his services. As we’ve seen with our graph, his defense really isn’t as bad as most have made it out to be. He’s not a glove-man at short, that’s for sure, but he’s been respectable if nothing else.
By looking at the graph, you can see that Renteria’s bat has varied quite a bit over the last 7 years. Most of the projections — CHONE, Marcel, and Oliver — have Renteria projected as a league average hitter — slightly better or slightly worse — for 2009. But, there’s always a chance that he posts a .340+ BABIP season and beats those projections. Even if Renteria hits slightly below his career BABIP, he’s got a good chance to be worth around +2 wins.
Signing Edgar Renteria was a good move that addressed a legitimate issue on the team without committing more than 2-years to fix the problem.
Comment Starter: Your thoughts on Renteria?