The Difference Between Fred Lewis and Manny Ramirez…

cough cough ripoff cough cough Actually I'm glad to see that my rough eyeballing of 2009 value actually has some basis using the best available projection systems. 2008 Manny was clearly a superstar even accounting for his defense (which the consensus seems to be around -10 runs); however, his past season obscures the fact that for several seasons prior Manny just was not that good a baseball player.

FWIW, 2/40-50 I would be potentially interested in. At that point we could potentially trade Lewis in a package for an infielder, too. I might actually be happy about something like this, but I'm not sure.

meh. I could take it or leave it. In the short term, it would make the team better as well as elevate the Giants in the national spotlight. That is usually a good thing for a team. A 4 year contract has a chance of really putting the team in a salary squeeze when it comes time to deal w/ Lincecum and Cain - so I am skeptical there. Especially given MR's age and likelihood of decline. If something like 4/80 happened, I wouldn't be pissed but I wouldn't be overly excited either. I would just cross my fingers and hope for the best. I don't really want MR, but I do realize that he is a great player and would make this team better. If luck holds out, he would be productive for the majority of his contract. Sometimes you've got to take a risk - if he didn't perform we would get real sick of "Manny being Manny" real fast.

Manny is the only guy who ever reminded me of Bonds. Patient, selective, awesome swing. He'd be exciting, for sure, and would force the Giants to do some real personnel shuffling, which could lead to some necessary house-cleaning and shipping out of overepaid deadweight guys like Rowand and Roberts. But I don't think we are "one hitter away" from being a good team. I think we are two years away, and Manny won't put us over the top. I'd really like to see the Giants grow some young players (we are stocked with young pitchers) and build a whole new team. As a life-long fan, I can live with losing if I'm convinced we are creating a future. Other than Texeira, I was not enamored with any of the FAs out there. Too old, too slow, too weak with the glove. It is a funny market, though, and Ramirez might just be had for a relatively cheap deal for two years. I could live with that, even though I'd hate to see Fred Lewis get bumped after his long climb to the bigs. Them's the breaks, though.

For me the Manny question comes down to this. Manny's value will NEVER be higher from this point forward. Lewis's value can, and should, improve over the next couple seasons. Quibble all one wants about the amount Lewis is likely to improve in value but that probability is still there. Thus , for a non contending team ( 2009 Giants), Lewis > Manny. Mr Lomez contenteds Manny can always be flipped if things don't go well. Name me the last veteran Sabean traded or cut ties with more then 5 months left on their contract? I bet you have to go back over a decade so. So trading him is not an option because the front office would lack the will to do it. Also if other teams were interested in Manny why are they not making inquiries and offers now when it would only cost them money and possibly a draft pick? I think it much more likely more teams will be interested in Lewis during 2009-2010 time frame. Lewis is cost controlled. The amount of interest depends what kind of numbers he backs up last year with. For these reasons I have to respectfully disagree with sign Manny crowd.

I'm gonna say that projected WAR is not in any way adequate to compare Lewis and Manny. To isolate Manny the hitter from Manny the larger persona is kind of pointless in my opinion. If there was ever a guy who, for better or worse, brings "intangible", "non-quantifiable" baggage to the table, it's Manny. He single-handedly revived the Dodgers last year. What could his projected WAR #'s possibly have looked like for a half-season in LA. +1 win, +2 at the absolute most? I'm too lazy to actually get the numbers, but I would bet large sums of money that Manny was responsible for somewhere in the vicinity of a half-dozen wins for the 50 games he played as a Dodger. Not to mention that the increased production from Martin, Loney, and Kemp probably accounted for another half-dozen. On the Red Sox it was the exact opposite. Jason Bay and the return of Ortiz were certainly major factors in the Sox' 2nd half success but the absence of Manny cannot be discounted when you look at the reversal in fortunes of that team. So, what's my point? I'm not totally sure. I think mostly I'm saying that if we want to accurately appraise Manny's value versus Fred Lewis' we have to account for how and where he's gonna fit into the ballclub. How will he react to his teammates, how will his teammates react to him? If you don't think that matters, you're being incredibly myopic. (Not that I'm accusing anyone of overlooking those things, but it drives me up the wall when "stat heads" blindly ignore what is so obvious only because they haven't yet thought of a way to quantify it. Rant over.) Also, Manny can do things that Lewis simply can't. Fred Lewis will not ever in his life go on a month long tear where he bangs out a dozen + jacks, OPS's 2.000, and carries an offense on his back. Manny can do that. And having that kind of threat usually staves off slumps for the guys around him as well. All that said, I would much prefer Manny over Fred Lewis. I don't think Fred Lewis is a potential All-Star level guy. We've seen what he has to offer, and frankly, it's a bit pedestrian for a corner outfielder his age. Manny would provide a hugely, sorely, unbelievably desperately needed 30 HR threat from the right side. He'd be a blast to watch on a day-to-day basis. He'd give a lot of Giants fans something to get excited about, and it would be great way to give the Dodgers the old scroogie. Furthermore, even if he gets fed up with the Giants' losing ways and reverts to his same old petulant-child routine, Sabes throws him on the trading block. Big deal. In fact, after what Manny did last year for the Dodgers, the Giants could probably land a pretty nice deal for him (at the very least get rid of his contract), and still be left with a Winn, Schierholtz Rowand, outfield. Sounds good to me.

@OGC >> I don’t see why anyone would think Lewis can’t replicate 2008, because he basically did the same in 2007 (minors and majors combined) and reduplicated it in 2008. Plus, he’s basically hitting the way he hit in the minors, raising his game with each rise in level. And most of the major free forecasts have him hitting around what he hit in 2008, though most are below his 2008 numbers, but only slightly. Lewis was a +2.6 win player in 2008 and he's projected as a +1.5 win player in 2009. I think most are concerned with his BABIP and his high K-Looking%. He was a great surprise last year and I still like him, I just won't be surprised if he's a 1-1.5 win player and not a 2.6 >> Plus, if he’s swinging for more power in a middle of lineup position, he should be able to make up for the loss in BA with more SLG/ISO. I get really uneasy with the "Move him to #3 and BAM! more power!" concept that the Giants are trying to float around with Fred Lewis. His approach -- decent OBP, little pop, K's a lot -- has worked for him so far (in both the majors and minors) and the Giants want to retool him. I don't think he's going to start magically hitting for more power or striking out less by just moving him up in the order since he's been doing it for his entire career. It just seems really unlikely to me.

Nice analysis on Manny vs. Lewis value. I can understand the allure but I would rather see the Giants make do with what they have right now and see where that leads them to in 2010. However, I see Boras leveraging LA with his SF rumor mongering, so the more money he can weasel from them, the better. I don't see why anyone would think Lewis can't replicate 2008, because he basically did the same in 2007 (minors and majors combined) and reduplicated it in 2008. Plus, he's basically hitting the way he hit in the minors, raising his game with each rise in level. And most of the major free forecasts have him hitting around what he hit in 2008, though most are below his 2008 numbers, but only slightly. Plus, if he's swinging for more power in a middle of lineup position, he should be able to make up for the loss in BA with more SLG/ISO. Interesting on CHONE's defense projection, thanks for mentioning: Winn and Rowand have the same projections, 7 for CO, 0 for CF.