Comments on: Final 2009 Giants WAR Projection

By: Bay City Ball | Giants Baseball With a Side of STATS

Bay City Ball | Giants Baseball With a Side of STATS — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 16:14:06 +0000

[...] time for my annual Giants WAR projection post. You can find the link to the 2009 projection, here. It explains a few things in general and it’s not a bad place to start if you’ve never [...]

By: Bay City Ball | A San Francisco Giants Blog

Bay City Ball | A San Francisco Giants Blog — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 16:25:51 +0000

[...] been playing around with EditGrid this morning and I made a few graphs relating to the 2009 Giants WAR projections. There really isn’t any new information presented in these graphs, but they might help some [...]

By: baetown415

baetown415 — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 06:30:15 +0000

Yo Chris, Happy, um…. late… holidays. I lag, I know.

Regarding the park factors for FIP, I think Xei’s method is pretty good, though I’d use B-R’s multi-year park factors. You could also do the park factors by each component (HR, BB, SO, HBP maybe) but I’m not sure how you’d put that all together.

BTW, I was thinking about putting up a Fanshot over at McC using the most pessimistic projections I could find (that are reasonable too, i.e. not using Marcels for Pablo or Sanchez or Nate) but will defer to you if you were thinking about doing this or want to do this.

Anyway, thanks again for your work.

By: Chris

Chris — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 14:02:42 +0000

Cool, that sounds easy enough. Thanks!

By: XEIFRANK

XEIFRANK — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 22:11:25 +0000

To park adjust, simply multiply the league average ERA that you are using by the “Runs Scored” park factor. You may want to three year weight (5/4/3) the park factor and then regress it 50% towards 1.0 to allow for only half of the games being played at home. This is really as accurate as you need to get imo.

SF:
2008: 1.045
2007: 0.987
2006: 0.993

These numbers were just pulled off of the ESPN park factors page, you may want to go with a different source, that’s your call.
vr, Xei

By: Chris

Chris — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 06:05:03 +0000

Thanks, Xei.

I was wondering how you park adjusted your FIP? I know you were using a different baseline because LA’s stadium has tended to favor pitching. Would you mind telling me how you calculated it?

By: XEIFRANK

XEIFRANK — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 04:43:35 +0000

Nice post. I like the layout and the way you explained everything, and thanks for the link to my DS blog.

Kenshin, it’s true that an 81-82 win team has about a 20% chance of winning 86 games, and an 86 win team has a 50% chance of winning 86+ games. .2 x .5 = 10% of overtaking them. The Dodgers might be that 86 win team on paper, depending who/if they sign in LF and SP. Will be more interesting to have a more competitive Giants team.
vr, Xei

By: kenshin

kenshin — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:42:36 +0000

as per USSmariner, a “true talent” 81-82 win team has about a 20% chance of winning 86+ games. So we definitely have a legitimate shot at taking this division even if our competition manages 85-86 games.

By: waxpack

waxpack — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:10:55 +0000

I’m hoping for 10 more wins than last year. That would put the Giants at 82-80—probably not quite enough to win the division, but 2 games above .500. Bottom line, I don’t see them winning fewer games than last year with the moves they’ve made. Would love to see them add a bat at some point, but I think what exists now is already a marked improvement.

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:32:52 +0000

Yup, the offseason is still young. I agree with you though, I think it’s going to be between us and the D-Backs and Dodgers. The Padres have already punted the 2009 season and the Rockies have a bunch of pitching problems.