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baetown415
baetown415

Sent. Yeah, Tango's site has so much stuff on it, it's kinda mind-boggling. I keep running into random old articles (which are usually good) and I only recently discovered that his "Mailbag" on his Blog is part of a wiki, which I think also incorporates other parts of his site.

Chris
Chris

If you want, save your data in your spreadsheet and email it to me. I want to see where our numbers are different. Thanks for the link, I haven't seen the new adjustments. Tango's site can be a little hard to navigate sometimes.

baetown415
baetown415

And I used 4.8 for each WAR Free Agent Value

baetown415
baetown415

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/ar... That's the easiest place to find the "new" position adjustments. There was talk on an earlier post about why Tango came to this conclusion, but I forget which one. I adjusted Colin Wyer's WAR Calculator spreadsheet and ran Renteria's projection again. I used .335 for his projected wOBA (Bill James' was .334, Marcel's were. 336, so i just used .335), .332 for lgwOBA, 600 PA, -5 on defense, the .75 adjustment for SS and I get... 1.46 WAR. Hmm....

Chris
Chris

I'll be removing Threets ... now!

Chris
Chris

@Bae Weird, I was using the 0.5 Tango positional adjustment. Did he change his adjustments? What are you coming up with 600 PA's for Renteria (and -5 runs on defense)? I'll re-check my numbers again. @GRM 1) I intend to remove them whenever they sign with someone. 2, 3) I guess I'm not a fan of Ort, I could see Copeland playing in the MLB before Ort comes back. 4) I'm waiting for the bullpen to sort itself out (ie: Taschner leaving) 5) Maybe. 6) The bullpen rankings aren't set in stone, so they'll change a little bit before ST. 7) OK. .8) Sorry, I think Phelps is a better option right now than Bowker is at 1B, regardless of being on the 40-man or not. 9) Same as above. 10) The formatting makes it hard to do the pitching, but I like the way it is for now. You've got the top five starters and the guys most likely to replace them. It doesn't matter who goes down, Misch would probably be the first to replace him.

giantsrainman
giantsrainman

Just some comments on your "Positional Depth Chart". 1) Both Threets and Timpner are minor league free agents and therefore should be removed from your depth chart. 2) Shouldn't Ortmeier be ahead of Horwitz in LF since he has more major league experience? 3) Shouldn't Ortmeier also be in the RF depth chart and also ahead of Copeland because of his major league experience? 4) Shouldn't you list just 7 bullpen slots instead of 9? 5) As I see it Affeldt and Tashner should occupy the top spot of the 2 lefty slots with Hinshaw and Espineli as their backups. Hinshaw may ultimately replace Taschner but Jack is the incumbant until he is either non tendored on December 12th or beating out in spring training. 6) Likewise Wilson, Howry, Romo, Yabu, and Valdez should occupy the top spot of the 5 righty slots with Sadler, Miller, Matos, Pichardo, and Hedrick as their backups. I would just drop Cowart off the list. 7) In my book players on the 40 Man Roster should always be higher on the depth chart then players that are not. 8) Therefore I would put Bowker ahead of Phelps at 1B. Phelps may end up jumping Bowker here if he is added to the MLB Roster but he has not done so yet. 9) Likewise I would place English, Sosa, and Joaquin ahead of Hammond and Pucetas in the starting pitching depth. 10) Finally, I suggest that instead of showing the same four backups for all 5 starting pitchers you show the 40 Man Roster Backups (Misch, Matinez, English, Sosa, Joaquin) as second respectively to the five starters (Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez, Lowry) with the non 40 man rosters backups (Hammond, Snyder, Pucetas, Alderson, Bumgardner) as third respectively to these five starters.

baetown415
baetown415

Oh, I think I see our differences now. I was using 550 PA's, but then I used the "older" position adjustment of 0.5 wins, instead of 0.75.

Chris
Chris

Oh, and I'm using .332 as my league wOBA for '09 since offense is projected to be down a little.

Chris
Chris

I stuck Renteria at 600 PA's which came out to like +1.9x WAR. Unless my math is wrong, he should be around two wins.

baetown415
baetown415

"Xanthan..." uh, I mean Chris....

baetown415
baetown415

Xanthan, I think Sabean actually slightly overpaid for Renteria. I think you're calculating his WAR for 700 PA's when he's more likely to see only 550 of those. Or are you adjusting for PT also?