Perceived, not perspective.

Yeah, I think it really comes down to relative perspective value. They are both very similar players, just swinging from opposite sides of the plate. Whichever comes cheaper/shorter is probably the better deal. While Dunn won't turn into a pumpkin - the deep alley in right center will certainly rob him of a few HR's - and when you are a three true outcomes player like Dunn if you start losing HR's your value starts to drop pretty fast. Take Dunn's slash from last year and turn 5 of his 40 HR's into long outs. It changes from .236/.386/.513 into .226/.378/.473. That's 50 points of OPS. Maybe that's an exaggeration, but it's easy to see how a three true outcomes player's performance can be drastically altered by the outcome of a few deep fly balls.

San Francisco was one of the tougher parks to hit HR's in last year for LHB's (only FLA and SD were harder) but on HT Adam Dunn led the National League with 17 'No Doubters' which are home runs that cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed at least 50 feet past the fence. These are the home runs that are absolute bombs. I think the last thing fans should worry about is if Dunn will hit for power in AT&T because his power is legit. I'm more worried about how he'll take to first base and even if he wants to play 1B. Burrell is even worse in LF than Dunn and as you pointed out, Dunn is younger. I'm not seeing the advantage of him over Dunn. Even if Burrell is a RHB, Dunn's power isn't going to killed in AT&T. He might lose a couple of HR's, but he's not going to turn into a pumpkin like Aaron Rowand. Burrell, coming off a WS victory in Philly, has to be valued more than Dunn, right? Dunn seems to be in the 2nd tier of hitters right now when it comes to free agents and that's why he is potentially attractive.

I like Burrell more than Dunn. Looking @ Hittracker, Dunn stands to have his power hurt a little by ATT. Burrell, however, hasn't hit a single HR in the last 3 years that wouldn't have gone out @ ATT, too. Now Hr's certainly aren't the only metric of power, but it is a quick and easy one. I think that we could realistically see Dunn's production drop into the 30 HR range if he were playing for the Giants, while Burrell's would remain unchanged. And I think Burrell might be had a little cheaper. He is however 3 years older, so that is a strike against him. I would be ecstatic with either on a 3-4 year deal @ a reasonable price, say < 12m per. The fundamental assumption is that either plays 1b. either would be worth ~ 3 wins over average offensively and about 3.5 wins over the production we got out of 1b last season. That helps this team a lot. Also, given the dynamic of this team and the starting rotation, the extra offensive could actually be even more valuable than strait WPA/LI suggests. Of course, that is pure conjecture. This team w/ Affeldt, Howry, Dunn/Burrell, and Renteria/Furcal could turn out to actually be respectable in the NL west next year.

<cite>Dunn’s defense, based on range factor, appears to not be that bad, slightly below average, for 1B. But his error percentage has been on the bad side, so he is a bit of a fumble fingers there. He has played only 127 games there during his career.</cite> His sample is really too small to draw much of a conclusion from, but he can't be any worse than John Bowker was. I know that's a little unfair to Bowker, who had to learn a new position on-the-fly in the majors, but he was pretty bad. Maybe JT Snow can work some of his GGM (Gold Glove Magic) with old stone fingers. I really ONLY want Dunn is he's as undervalued as he kinda-sorta appears to be right now. I don't put any stock into his 100 AB's at AT&T, he'll hit wherever he plays. It's his one plus-plus skill. I still think if you can find a way to offset some of his negative defensive value, and he's undervalued still, then he could be a nice pickup. Will Clark has always been my favorite Giant, I grew up idolizing him and I was a little disappointed to see him not make the 5% threshold to stay on the HoF ballot last year. He's not a HoF'er but it would have been nice to see him at least meet the 5% requirement to hang on the ballot for a few years.

I think in the Phillies case, they have OK replacement for Burrell and would rather spend that money on other needs, like pitching, plus perhaps work out a Ryan Howard long-term deal. In Dunn's case, if I recall right, they are looking to shed salary for 2009, and that is one big chunk of change to drop. Even with Dunn gone (and Randy Johnson and Orlando Hudson), they still have less than $10M to sign a free agent with, so they must have cut a lot of payroll. Dunn's defense, based on range factor, appears to not be that bad, slightly below average, for 1B. But his error percentage has been on the bad side, so he is a bit of a fumble fingers there. He has played only 127 games there during his career. Not only is he way below career average in AT&T, he is below for most of the NL West teams, including Arizona, except for, of course, Colorado. And the NL West is where he would spend 108 games playing at (plus 9 games in Colorado) if he signed with the Giants. That would really kill his offensive numbers and any chance for a good follow-up contract. Hard for me to say that he is a good hitter when his batting average is only .247 for his career. He's a Three True Outcome player: high in homers, walks and strikeouts. Imagine what he could do if he loved baseball! Rickey HenderSon is the sure HoF for this election. Williams, as much as I still love him as a Giants fan, is not HoF worthy, particularly since Will Clark, who I consider above Williams, got so few votes that he was dropped after one year. However, had the strike not ended his run, he could have been the one in the spotlight chasing Ruth and Maris, instead of McGwire and Sosa a few years later, as he was on pace to catch up with them. He certainly would have garnered more HoF interest had he been able to do that. Meh, he wanted to go to the D-backs because his daughter was living there with his ex-wife, so that was probably going to happen no matter what. It's funny how the D-backs are like the Southern Giants. They took over the Giants long-time AAA hometown of Phoenix. Matt Williams was their signature player for a long while, Bob Brenly was their manager, Bob Melvin was a Giant previously, making his name while with us (plus was born in Bay Area), our former GM was one of their top advisors for years (Ralph Nelson), and plenty of ex-Giants have been assistants, like Will Clark, Humm Baby himself, Roger Craig, and others.