Yesterday was the deadline for clubs to offer arbitration to their free agent players. This is interesting for a couple of reasons but the most important reason is that it might help us narrow the scope of free agents that the Giants intend to pursue. Brian Sabean said earlier in the offseason that the compensation status of free agents would be a deciding factor in free agent signings.
I’ve compiled a short list of free agents whom the Giants might be interested in. The list includes their position, FA type, and arb-status.
| Name | Position | FA Type | Arbitration |
| Juan Cruz | RHP | A | Yes |
| Orlando Cabrera | SS | A | Yes |
| Orlando Hudson | 2B | A | Yes |
| Pat Burrell | LF | A | No |
| Adam Dunn | LF | A | No |
| Kerry Wood | RHP | A | No |
| Bob Howry | RHP | A | No |
| Edgar Renteria | SS | A | No |
| Joe Beimel | LHP | B | No |
| Brandon Lyon | RHP | B | Yes |
You’ll notice that our list is composed of mostly relievers, a few middle infielders, and a couple of power-type hitters that might be able to squeeze in at first base. Note that I’m not saying the Giants should sign any of these players, but they are players that the team could have some interest in.
Juan Cruz was linked to the Giants earlier in the offseason but his Type A status should scare the team off. Wood, Howry, and Beimel should be more appealing to the Giants since they were not offered arbitration. I really don’t like Brandon Lyon but his Type B status shouldn’t scare off the Giants. If the Giants signed a Type B player they don’t lose a pick, but the team — Arizona in this case — would get a supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd round.
You also might be able to see how the middle infield is shaping up now that Orlando Hudson has been offered arbitration. As a Type A free agent, the Giants would lose their 2nd round draft pick to sign Hudson. The same goes for Orlando Cabrera. Does anyone like him? Cabrera offers little upside and his Type A status makes him a non-buy for me. In the end, the Tigers chose not to offer arbitration to Edgar Renteria. Renteria is definitely the Giants #2 choice for shortstop right now, his arb-status made things a little easier.
I was very surprised to see Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell not get arbitration offers — is the economy tougher on some teams than we think? I think on our list of players, Dunn could be the most interesting if he would take up a first baseman’s glove. The market for Dunn, to this point, has been very quiet and I’m wondering if he wouldn’t settle for a 3-year deal? His defense is awful in LF but it might not be as bad at first base. If it’s one thing Dunn can do, it’s hit. His wOBA’s from 2004-2008 are: .403, .391, .365, .399, and .383. That’s steady production and if a team can find some way to offset his negative value on defense, that team could find a bargain. Is he really this undervalued? Hating baseball aside, he’s been a very good hitter during his time in the majors.
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Wanted to share this link, R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Boxscore has a really cool piece on Barry Bonds and Tedd Williams. A very nice read and it turns out that Bonds was brain-meltingly-good.
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Also, one more news item today as the 2009 Hall of Fame Ballots were released. Ricky Henderson is the obvious choice for this years class of players, but former Giant Matt Williams also made the list this year. Williams, always a favorite of mine, spent 1987-1996 with the Giants. He’s probably most remembered for his 1994 season in which he hit 43 HR’s in the strike-shortened season. During his time with the Giants, Williams hit: .264/.312/.498 with 247 home runs. He was a four time All-Star with the Giants in 1990, 1994, 1995, 1996. Williams could hit but he could also field his position quite well. He won the Gold Glove Award three times with the Giants in 1991, 1993, and 1994.
In reality, Williams doesn’t deserve a spot in the Hall, but he was a heck of a Giant. I never got used to seeing him in those ugly pin-striped Diamondback uniforms.
I think in the Phillies case, they have OK replacement for Burrell and would rather spend that money on other needs, like pitching, plus perhaps work out a Ryan Howard long-term deal.
In Dunn’s case, if I recall right, they are looking to shed salary for 2009, and that is one big chunk of change to drop. Even with Dunn gone (and Randy Johnson and Orlando Hudson), they still have less than $10M to sign a free agent with, so they must have cut a lot of payroll.
Dunn’s defense, based on range factor, appears to not be that bad, slightly below average, for 1B. But his error percentage has been on the bad side, so he is a bit of a fumble fingers there. He has played only 127 games there during his career.
Not only is he way below career average in AT&T, he is below for most of the NL West teams, including Arizona, except for, of course, Colorado. And the NL West is where he would spend 108 games playing at (plus 9 games in Colorado) if he signed with the Giants. That would really kill his offensive numbers and any chance for a good follow-up contract.
Hard for me to say that he is a good hitter when his batting average is only .247 for his career. He’s a Three True Outcome player: high in homers, walks and strikeouts. Imagine what he could do if he loved baseball!
Rickey HenderSon is the sure HoF for this election. Williams, as much as I still love him as a Giants fan, is not HoF worthy, particularly since Will Clark, who I consider above Williams, got so few votes that he was dropped after one year. However, had the strike not ended his run, he could have been the one in the spotlight chasing Ruth and Maris, instead of McGwire and Sosa a few years later, as he was on pace to catch up with them. He certainly would have garnered more HoF interest had he been able to do that.
Meh, he wanted to go to the D-backs because his daughter was living there with his ex-wife, so that was probably going to happen no matter what.
It’s funny how the D-backs are like the Southern Giants. They took over the Giants long-time AAA hometown of Phoenix. Matt Williams was their signature player for a long while, Bob Brenly was their manager, Bob Melvin was a Giant previously, making his name while with us (plus was born in Bay Area), our former GM was one of their top advisors for years (Ralph Nelson), and plenty of ex-Giants have been assistants, like Will Clark, Humm Baby himself, Roger Craig, and others.
His sample is really too small to draw much of a conclusion from, but he can’t be any worse than John Bowker was. I know that’s a little unfair to Bowker, who had to learn a new position on-the-fly in the majors, but he was pretty bad. Maybe JT Snow can work some of his GGM (Gold Glove Magic) with old stone fingers.
I really ONLY want Dunn is he’s as undervalued as he kinda-sorta appears to be right now. I don’t put any stock into his 100 AB’s at AT&T, he’ll hit wherever he plays. It’s his one plus-plus skill. I still think if you can find a way to offset some of his negative defensive value, and he’s undervalued still, then he could be a nice pickup.
Will Clark has always been my favorite Giant, I grew up idolizing him and I was a little disappointed to see him not make the 5% threshold to stay on the HoF ballot last year. He’s not a HoF’er but it would have been nice to see him at least meet the 5% requirement to hang on the ballot for a few years.
I like Burrell more than Dunn. Looking @ Hittracker, Dunn stands to have his power hurt a little by ATT. Burrell, however, hasn’t hit a single HR in the last 3 years that wouldn’t have gone out @ ATT, too.
Now Hr’s certainly aren’t the only metric of power, but it is a quick and easy one. I think that we could realistically see Dunn’s production drop into the 30 HR range if he were playing for the Giants, while Burrell’s would remain unchanged.
And I think Burrell might be had a little cheaper. He is however 3 years older, so that is a strike against him.
I would be ecstatic with either on a 3-4 year deal @ a reasonable price, say < 12m per.
The fundamental assumption is that either plays 1b. either would be worth ~ 3 wins over average offensively and about 3.5 wins over the production we got out of 1b last season.
That helps this team a lot. Also, given the dynamic of this team and the starting rotation, the extra offensive could actually be even more valuable than strait WPA/LI suggests.
Of course, that is pure conjecture.
This team w/ Affeldt, Howry, Dunn/Burrell, and Renteria/Furcal could turn out to actually be respectable in the NL west next year.
San Francisco was one of the tougher parks to hit HR’s in last year for LHB’s (only FLA and SD were harder) but on HT Adam Dunn led the National League with 17 ‘No Doubters’ which are home runs that cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed at least 50 feet past the fence. These are the home runs that are absolute bombs.
I think the last thing fans should worry about is if Dunn will hit for power in AT&T because his power is legit. I’m more worried about how he’ll take to first base and even if he wants to play 1B.
Burrell is even worse in LF than Dunn and as you pointed out, Dunn is younger. I’m not seeing the advantage of him over Dunn. Even if Burrell is a RHB, Dunn’s power isn’t going to killed in AT&T. He might lose a couple of HR’s, but he’s not going to turn into a pumpkin like Aaron Rowand. Burrell, coming off a WS victory in Philly, has to be valued more than Dunn, right? Dunn seems to be in the 2nd tier of hitters right now when it comes to free agents and that’s why he is potentially attractive.
Yeah, I think it really comes down to relative perspective value. They are both very similar players, just swinging from opposite sides of the plate. Whichever comes cheaper/shorter is probably the better deal.
While Dunn won’t turn into a pumpkin – the deep alley in right center will certainly rob him of a few HR’s – and when you are a three true outcomes player like Dunn if you start losing HR’s your value starts to drop pretty fast.
Take Dunn’s slash from last year and turn 5 of his 40 HR’s into long outs. It changes from .236/.386/.513 into .226/.378/.473.
That’s 50 points of OPS. Maybe that’s an exaggeration, but it’s easy to see how a three true outcomes player’s performance can be drastically altered by the outcome of a few deep fly balls.
Perceived, not perspective.