@OGC Hillenbrand was a career average OPS+ firstbaseman when we acquired him, who knew his career decline would start with us, he was actually hitting above average with Toronto before coming to us Hillenbrand was a borderline average 1B and I bet if you included his defense, he would be slightly under average. He also had zero trade value. Everyone knew that Toronto was basically forced to move him. Or would you have preferred the Giants trade, say, Bumgarner to get an above average young firstbaseman to prove that they understand firstbasemen Holy Strawmen Batman! had Hatteberg (ick) Hatteberg who posted OPS+'s of 116, 93, 106, and 81 with Oakland. You could argue that they stuck with him for a year too long, maybe, but icky? Really? Ick is Shea Hillenbrand's 74 OPS+ or Lance Niekro's 77 OPS+. Does all this stuff, which is similar to the Giants situation, mean that Beane don’t understand 1B, or just that he’s been trying out some young players and they haven’t been working, and trying out some older players, and they haven’t been working either? You've got this weird compulsion to always bring in the A's when I'm talking about the Giants and I'm not sure I understand. This isn't about Billy Beane, it's about the Giants. The team I like an follow. As far as I know, Beane never tried to sell the idea of playing a 5th OF at the most demanding offensive position on the diamond. As for Ishikawa, I'm not sure that means that get 1B. They paid him a lot of money for his slot, yes. But, his minor league track record shouldn't instill anyone with confidence and whether or not he turns out or goes the way of Neikro, is to be seen. He was also drafted in 2002, this is 2008 heading into 2009.

Neifi's pretty good at finding that stuff. I don't think it's fair to say the Giants don't know how to judge firstbasemen. Sweeney played only because Niekro blew his chance; that is why he had never gotten a starting job even with his good bat. Niekro had done well previously and earned the chance, but he proved not to be up to the task. Hillenbrand was a career average OPS+ firstbaseman when we acquired him, who knew his career decline would start with us, he was actually hitting above average with Toronto before coming to us. Ortmeier earned a shot by hitting .800 OPS in basically full time play in August/September the year before. And when he blew his chance, they pushed Bowker to 1B, but he had legit stats in the previous year as well. Or would you have preferred the Giants trade, say, Bumgarner to get an above average young firstbaseman to prove that they understand firstbasemen The question is, do you want the Giants to play young hitters or do you want a vet there? Sometimes you have to kiss a lot of frogs to get to a prospect you can rely on. As GM, the only way he can prove he knows firstbasemen given your premise is to sign the best firstbaseman around or you could end up trading the farm for him if there is none available in free agency. Sometimes you have to make choices given your limited options. Sometimes your prospect stinks. Take for example, the A's. They've been struggling to find a 1B the past few years, they played mostly Barton, plus a washed up Sweeney, tried out Dan Johnson to no avail, played Todd Walker there, was forced to play OF's there, had Hatteberg (ick), also brought in Karros, who was OK the year before but horrible with them (much like Hillebrand). As much as I think Beane is over-hyped, I wouldn't say that he doesn't know firstbasemen, but their scenario is much like the Giants, only they had better hitters in the OF to play at 1B. And Daric Barton was and is considered a very good 1B prospect, not just by the A's but by all the prospect experts I have seen. The problem is that he's not figuring it out thus far. Does all this stuff, which is similar to the Giants situation, mean that Beane don't understand 1B, or just that he's been trying out some young players and they haven't been working, and trying out some older players, and they haven't been working either? If anything, the Giants appear to understand something about 1B, they paid the highest bonus outside the first 10 rounds to sign Ishikawa, and he plays excellent defense there, though obviously his batting discipline is horrible (too many strikeouts) but he has shown enough hitting prowess (plus improved his strikeout rate to approximately 20% in 2008, a huge improvement over the 30%+ before) to make the majors, when probably around 60-70% of players who received a bonus of his size never make the majors or just have a cup of coffee, and he has held his own so far with a 102 OPS+ .

Thanks as always for the great insight. I had never even heard of Phelps before reading this. You make a good case for him. Do you think .500 is within reach in 2009?

Josh Phelps... everybody wants you. Another team with not much to lose and a 1B opening, the Mariners, would be a good fit too. So says USS Mariner: http://ussmariner.com/2008/10/15/free-talent-alert-free-talent-alert/ I hope the Giants can be a little more nimble on these matters than the M's, who are trying to hire a new GM right now.

My dream scenario: 1. The Giants find a trade partner that wants Molina. They trade him for good value. 2. Move Pabs back behind the plate where his value is the highest. 3. Sign Phelps to platoon at 1B with Ishikawa/Bowker/whoever hits RHP the best. 4. Profit!

Yes please. Risk v. Reward: Risk? None. Reward? Competent 1b for the next 2-3 years. Sounds like a winner to me.

Or 'alternate future' scenario: 1. Stick Sandoval at 3B for the year and keep Molina (or at least until the trading deadline). 2. Sign Phelps to platoon at 1B with Ishikawa/Bowker/whoever hits RHP the best. 3. Profit! Though, I'm not sure that Sandoval could play 3B for an entire year.