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For a more detailed post on WAR, check out Tom Tango’s excellent blog here. He runs through the idea of Wins Above Replacement and lays out some of the math behind the concept. Big thanks to Colin Wyers for his WAR spreadsheet, making this whole process much, much easier.
Things to Remember:
~ Defense is in runs saved compared to the average defender for that position. For example: Randy Winn’s +14 runs means that he saved 14 more runs than your average right fielder. Ray Durham’s -10 runs means that he cost the Giants 10 more runs than the average fielding second basemen.
~ wOBA doesn’t include a baserunning component, so if you want to you could slightly bump Randy Winn’s (25 steals out of 27 attempts) and Fred Lewis’ (21 steals out of 28 attempts) values. I didn’t adjust Randy or Fred’s scores because studies have shown that the value added by solid baserunning is pretty minimal. The best baserunners might see +.15 wins added to their values. If you wanted to, you might be able to add +.05 to +.10 wins to Winn and Lewis’ numbers.
~ League average wOBA is .338
~ Player’s get positional adjustments in WAR. This is so you aren’t valuing a .850 OPS SS the same as a .850 OPS DH. The harder the position is to play, the bigger the adjustment. The adjustments are +1 for C’s, +0.5 for SS/CF, 0 for 2B/3B, -0.5 for LF/RF, -1 for 1B, and -1.5 for DH. This is a good reason why if you have a DH or 1B, they should really be able to hit because anyone can play those positions. For example: The Mariners let Jose Video accrue 291 PA’s at DH this year. His overall line was .235/.273/.346 at the most demanding offensive position in baseball. You can begin to see why the M’s lost a 100 games.
~ Lastly, my cutoff for Giants hitters is 200 PA’s. This largely excludes the rookies (Sandoval, Ishikawa, and Schierholtz) and the injured (Roberts). I’m ignoring hitters with less than 200 PA’s because you can’t really draw much from a hitter that’s played less than your average bench player would over a full season. The 200 PA benchmark is for players that spent any time on the Giants in ’08. As a result, we’ve got a couple of guys in Castillo and Durham who played the 1st half with the team but are no longer on the Giants.
~ My wOBA scores are from StatCorner and they are adjusted for home park.
Thoughts:
~ Randy Winn’s combination of hitting and defense boosted him to the top of our list with +3.6 wins above replacement. Say hello to the best position player on the Giants in ’08. Winn’s defense added about +1 wins to his overall total and even though he might be borderline for RF with his bat, he’s a better than league average hitter and his defense is very, very good. Randy Winn would be valued around $16.3M on the free agent market for his ’08 season. The Giants are only paying Winn $8M this year, meaning that they are getting nearly double the performance for what they are paying.
~ The runner up to Winn is Bengie Molina who scored a +2.4 wins above replacement. Bengie’s overall line of: .292/.322/.445 doesn’t look spectacular but when you consider it’s coming from the toughest position to play on the baseball diamond, it looks a lot better. Bengie’s sOPS+ as a catcher is 116, meaning that he’s 16% better than the league average catcher in the National League. Bengie could be an attractive solution for a team that might need a catcher in the offseason. He’s in the final year of his deal and he’s hitting quite well for his position. I think the Giants would do well to listen to offers for Molina’s services. Molina is a player that I was totally wrong on, when he came to the Giants his age and weight had me guessing that he’d be injured or ineffective by year 2 of his deal, Bengie proved me wrong and then some. Molina is valued around $11M on the FA market and he’s set to make $6M in ’09, a very nice deal for any team.
~ Fred Lewis was worth +2.1 wins over replacement and is the third best position player on the Giants. He played solid defense in LF — +5 runs saved above average — and he hit with a wOBA of .353. Fred should head into ’09 as the starter in LF. On a team like the Giants, one that is transititioning, Lewis is the perfect player. He’s cheap — making league minimum this year — and he’s adding positive value. In fact, Lewis is valued around $9.7M on the FA market for his ’08 season and the Giants are only paying him 400K. That’s a difference of +$9.3M for the Giants. Good teams do not drastically overpay for talent and Lewis is a great example of getting production for very cheap.
~ Rowand’s year hasn’t been that great but he’s fairly compensated for his services. On the FA market he would be worth around $8.17M and the Giants are paying him $8M this year. His salary increases to $12M in 2010 and extends through 2012. He’s got a chance to be slightly overpaid in those years if he doesn’t bounce back.
~ Durham added nice value to the Giants but a large portion of it he gave back on defense. I scored Rich Aurillia’s defense at average, but it’s more likely to be a couple of runs below average at 3B. He produced enough this year to come back as a platoon bat against LHP. I wouldn’t be opposed to brining him back but on a 1-year deal tops.
~ If Burriss can play an average SS defensively he’s worth about +.5 wins over replacement. That’s not great but the Giants will most likely go forward with him as the SS, at least for the meantime. He doesn’t have to be great, but if he can stay above replacement level the Giants would be happy. I’m still a little worried about his lack of power.
~ Eugenio didn’t do much this year. His wOBA of .304 is the 2nd lowest of our position players. Only Omar outdid him in bat futility. The Giants got some good value out of Winn, Molina, and Lewis, but, Omar was a sinkhole. The Giants paid him $5M this year for a sub-replacement level performance. That’s a difference of -$10.65M for Omar. You can see that even Omar’s strong glove — though clearly not as strong as it once was — doesn’t save him. This might be the last year we see Omar in the big leagues. Maybe he’ll head to Japan.
Final Thoughts:
Winn really had a fine season and it still surprises me a little when I look at his numbers. He’s the most non-flashy player I’ve ever seen but he’s doing a bunch of things well. Most noted is his defense which counts for a large portion of his value. It makes the Roberts and Rowand signings look pretty bad when Winn could have most likely played an above average CF. He rated above average in CF by Dewans +/- system in the past when he played it near full-time.
Molina is also having a great season and adding a good bit of value that’s, in part, determined by his defensive position. Will any teams come knocking on Molina in the winter? If so, will the Giants trade him and let Pablo play C? I think Molina can be had but I think the Giants will keep him because Sabean has constantly held him in high regard (maybe a little too high).
Omar really was terrible and I’ll be a little sad to see him go. I hope he catches on somewhere else. Are there still any Velez supporters out there? I know his line looks a little better since his return from Fresno, but it’s mostly supported by a .355 BABIP. His tools are intriguing, but I don’t think he’ll ever put them together. He’s also a below average defender, but you already knew that.
Comment Starter: Eating crow; any position player that you completely whiffed on this year?
I hadn’t really thought about individual player performance before the season started. The most I ventured was a guess that they’d finish 74-88 over on the sfgate discussion board.
I’m interested in your thoughts on Molina re: trading him. According to Sabean (yesterday’s press conference that I read on Baggs’ blog), Sandoval is “penciled in” at first. I believe Sabean also said that any movement would happen more through trades than the free agent market. Should they choose to move Molina, who do you think they could get for him, and how would they fill the gap at catcher? Posey?
I think this could be an interesting, even exciting off-season for the Giants.
I never thought Lewis would have the opportunity he got. I figured him and Nate would be spending time in Sabean Era Prospect Hell. Lewis also did better then I thought he would. He still fields the ball like Lonnie Smith but his ‘D” has gotten much better then I though as well.
I also figure Bowker would not leave Fresno tell September.
Waxpack: I think the Giants are in a position of strength here. If the offer does not suit the Giants just wait. With Pablo the Giants should be able to keep Molina nice and fresh and his number decent well into the season. Someone will want to give a decent inf. ( hopefully left side) help for him to charge after a pennant eventually.
I’m famous for my terrible predictions!
I’ve been a big Sandoval booster since I saw him rake in SJ last year, but no one could have predicted what he would do in the bigs this year!
The one guy I really got wrong was Erick Threets. Left-handed power pitchers don’t grow on trees, and I thought his stuff would be good enough to get hitters out at this level. Whoops on that.
Do you guys think Sandoval has passed the “He’s had enough ABs for pitchers to adjust to him–now how’s he gonna do” test?
I remember this being a criticism of Bowker–he tore it up the first couple of weeks or so, then cooled off considerably.
Did Sandoval get enough of a look to “prove” he can put up numbers like he did consistently? I’m definitely not doubting that he can. I’m just not knowledgable enough to really make a prediction, but I’m guessing more than a few posters here are.
@Wax
If Molina is traded, Sandoval goes to C and the Giants can move Ishikawa to 1B.
@Delorean
I, too, have been guilty of liking Threets in the past. I’ve always liked his arm more than his actual pitching ability.
@Back to Wax
I sorta do and I’m not sure how much he has left to learn in the minors. He’ll be a big part of the Giants team next year and any steps he takes forward will greatly help out the team. I think he’ll have to adjust his plate approach some but he can hit.
Yeah, I’m still a Velez supporter
It’s interesting that, as lamented as his defense has been – he’s been about twice as good as Ray Ray. I would not have expected that.
Velez still has a lot to prove w/ the bat, but he took big steps doing so since Fresno. Hey may not make the starting 9 in 2009, but he should be on the 25.
Predicting an appropriate sample size for Sandoval is hard because he isn’t your typical hitter. He doesn’t seem to swing and miss at any particular pitch, and as such it might be a while before the scouts figure out what his weakness is.
But rest assured, he has a weakness. Once it is established, it then is just a question of how effectively pitchers can exploit that weakness.
I think he will regress significantly in 2009, but would not be overly surprised to see him keep the BA a little over 300 for the whole season. (And I use BA as a metric because he’s not gonna walk much, so BA == OBP)
So if I’m reading the chart correctly, Vizquel could have paid us $5M – and we’d still be overpaying!
What did you use for defense, +/-?
Hi Cookyman, good to see you here.
Yup, I used +/- and then did the * .8 trick that you showed me to convert the totals into runs. Very cool.
Finally, what I’ve been waiting for because I was too lazy to do them myself.
I just wanted to note that if Freddie had more PT (i.e. at the beginning of the season and w/o being derailed by the bunion) he probably would’ve been 2nd to Winn over Molina. I’m glad that he did as well as I hoped he would. It sucks that he didn’t get a chance to play full-time and hitting in front of Bonds but hopefully he’ll last long enough to hit in front of another legit slugger.
Btw, is the *.8 for Plus/Minus rounded? I thought the value was closer to *.78 for some reason, but I’m not sure on that.