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	<title>Comments on: Bullpen Numbers for Your Consideration</title>
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	<description>Giants Baseball With a Side of STATS</description>
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		<title>By: Chris</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/08/15/bullpen-numbers-for-your-consideration/comment-page-1/#comment-3651</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Aug 2008 12:29:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=818#comment-3651</guid>
		<description>Hey Frank,

&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;cite&gt;I am hoping Walker is just experiencing something akin to dead arm - he is still fairly close to his TJ surgery, so maybe he doesn’t have the stamina needed.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;

That &lt;i&gt;might&lt;/i&gt; have something to do with it but Walker came back from TJ really fast, I assumed his recovery time was so short because, well, he recovered quickly. I&#039;m not sure that his TJ is causing  him problems so much as what we&#039;re seeing is Walker&#039;s near true talent level. 

He&#039;s always been an arm you&#039;d rather use in middle relief than in late inning situations. From 2004-2005 he gave the Giants about 120 innings of 4.20 ERA baseball, that&#039;s probably his ceiling. Not a bad thing to have in your bullpen, but it&#039;s how you use him and what you should expect from him. He&#039;ll be 33-years-old next year and it&#039;s possible that his 4.20 ERA days are past.

I&#039;ve always felt Walker was a little overrated because he&#039;s a super duper nice local kid but he is what he is, and he&#039;s not a huge part of our bullpen. I wouldn&#039;t be sad to see him go, or if he stays, to take on a middle relief role outside of late game duties.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey Frank,</p>
<blockquote><p><cite>I am hoping Walker is just experiencing something akin to dead arm &#8211; he is still fairly close to his TJ surgery, so maybe he doesn’t have the stamina needed.</cite></p></blockquote>
<p>That <i>might</i> have something to do with it but Walker came back from TJ really fast, I assumed his recovery time was so short because, well, he recovered quickly. I&#8217;m not sure that his TJ is causing  him problems so much as what we&#8217;re seeing is Walker&#8217;s near true talent level. </p>
<p>He&#8217;s always been an arm you&#8217;d rather use in middle relief than in late inning situations. From 2004-2005 he gave the Giants about 120 innings of 4.20 ERA baseball, that&#8217;s probably his ceiling. Not a bad thing to have in your bullpen, but it&#8217;s how you use him and what you should expect from him. He&#8217;ll be 33-years-old next year and it&#8217;s possible that his 4.20 ERA days are past.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve always felt Walker was a little overrated because he&#8217;s a super duper nice local kid but he is what he is, and he&#8217;s not a huge part of our bullpen. I wouldn&#8217;t be sad to see him go, or if he stays, to take on a middle relief role outside of late game duties.</p>
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		<title>By: fttts</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/08/15/bullpen-numbers-for-your-consideration/comment-page-1/#comment-3650</link>
		<dc:creator>fttts</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Aug 2008 17:16:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=818#comment-3650</guid>
		<description>It is a definite disappointment that so many of our young and/or bull pen pitchers have had such poor years, ie, Chulk, Misch, Munter, Hennessey.  Walker has, at least, out performed these guys.  I really don&#039;t know what has happened to Walker.  He was doing very well early in the year.  He is not alone in the going thru a gas can phase - Yabu, Taschner and others have gone thru stretches where they just can&#039;t get anybody out.  I think some of the problem is guys who were counted on have had such awful years that they are in Fresno, meaning that everyone other than Wilso is being asked to perform in more highly leveraged situations than we would like - or than we feel they are really capable of.
  I am hoping Walker is just experiencing something akin to dead arm - he is still fairly close to his TJ surgery, so maybe he doesn&#039;t have the stamina needed.  It seems to me (and I might be completely wrong on this) he has gotten away from the split finger and has been throwing more sliders.  And it seems, he has kind of lost the feel of his slider.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is a definite disappointment that so many of our young and/or bull pen pitchers have had such poor years, ie, Chulk, Misch, Munter, Hennessey.  Walker has, at least, out performed these guys.  I really don&#8217;t know what has happened to Walker.  He was doing very well early in the year.  He is not alone in the going thru a gas can phase &#8211; Yabu, Taschner and others have gone thru stretches where they just can&#8217;t get anybody out.  I think some of the problem is guys who were counted on have had such awful years that they are in Fresno, meaning that everyone other than Wilso is being asked to perform in more highly leveraged situations than we would like &#8211; or than we feel they are really capable of.<br />
  I am hoping Walker is just experiencing something akin to dead arm &#8211; he is still fairly close to his TJ surgery, so maybe he doesn&#8217;t have the stamina needed.  It seems to me (and I might be completely wrong on this) he has gotten away from the split finger and has been throwing more sliders.  And it seems, he has kind of lost the feel of his slider.</p>
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		<title>By: delorean</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/08/15/bullpen-numbers-for-your-consideration/comment-page-1/#comment-3647</link>
		<dc:creator>delorean</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2008 18:15:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=818#comment-3647</guid>
		<description>Agreed all all points! Looks like I&#039;m&#039;a hafta drop some coin on THE BOOK!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agreed all all points! Looks like I&#8217;m'a hafta drop some coin on THE BOOK!</p>
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		<title>By: Chris</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/08/15/bullpen-numbers-for-your-consideration/comment-page-1/#comment-3645</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:37:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=818#comment-3645</guid>
		<description>I actually think one of the biggest problems with using your &#039;Closer&#039; in new and different ways is that the save stat is basically how these guys make their earnings. It&#039;s an arbitrary statistic that people attach way too much value to. After all, if K-Rod enters the FA market with 10 saves instead of 55+, people might value him less, which leads to him making less money. 

If you told the entire population of &#039;Closers&#039; in MLB that you were going to start using them differently, I&#039;m pretty sure they&#039;d riot.

The save stat is the reason why guys like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones have earned millions of dollars when they aren&#039;t all they great but they &quot;Get the job done when it counts&quot; which is in a manufactured and arbitrary situation that they have no control over, and most times, the hard work has already been done before they got in the game. 

The fact is that if you looked at game-states scenarios -- the different combination of runs, open bases, and innings that make up the different stages of the game -- closing out the 9th inning in save situation -- a lead of 1-3 runs -- will happen 90%+ of the time. It&#039;s going to take a maverick manager to start making a change to how the bullpens are used, because if the game flops and you lose, the press is going to hammer that manager for not bringing in the closer at whatever time they perceived was the correct time.

You emailed me last week with a question about THE BOOK, and Tango has a great chapter on bullpen usage that answers a lot of these questions. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I actually think one of the biggest problems with using your &#8216;Closer&#8217; in new and different ways is that the save stat is basically how these guys make their earnings. It&#8217;s an arbitrary statistic that people attach way too much value to. After all, if K-Rod enters the FA market with 10 saves instead of 55+, people might value him less, which leads to him making less money. </p>
<p>If you told the entire population of &#8216;Closers&#8217; in MLB that you were going to start using them differently, I&#8217;m pretty sure they&#8217;d riot.</p>
<p>The save stat is the reason why guys like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones have earned millions of dollars when they aren&#8217;t all they great but they &#8220;Get the job done when it counts&#8221; which is in a manufactured and arbitrary situation that they have no control over, and most times, the hard work has already been done before they got in the game. </p>
<p>The fact is that if you looked at game-states scenarios &#8212; the different combination of runs, open bases, and innings that make up the different stages of the game &#8212; closing out the 9th inning in save situation &#8212; a lead of 1-3 runs &#8212; will happen 90%+ of the time. It&#8217;s going to take a maverick manager to start making a change to how the bullpens are used, because if the game flops and you lose, the press is going to hammer that manager for not bringing in the closer at whatever time they perceived was the correct time.</p>
<p>You emailed me last week with a question about THE BOOK, and Tango has a great chapter on bullpen usage that answers a lot of these questions.</p>
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		<title>By: delorean</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/08/15/bullpen-numbers-for-your-consideration/comment-page-1/#comment-3644</link>
		<dc:creator>delorean</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:28:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=818#comment-3644</guid>
		<description>Yeah, I didn&#039;t mean to sound like I was singling Bochy out. All big-league managers do it, and it&#039;s bullshit. You&#039;d think someone like LaRussa would give the leverage thing a try instead of doing stupid shit like hitting his pitcher 8th.

Idiot.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, I didn&#8217;t mean to sound like I was singling Bochy out. All big-league managers do it, and it&#8217;s bullshit. You&#8217;d think someone like LaRussa would give the leverage thing a try instead of doing stupid shit like hitting his pitcher 8th.</p>
<p>Idiot.</p>
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		<title>By: Chris</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/08/15/bullpen-numbers-for-your-consideration/comment-page-1/#comment-3643</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:19:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=818#comment-3643</guid>
		<description>@Delorean

Thanks! I&#039;m glad you enjoy the work, I really do appreciate your comments and input.

&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;cite&gt;If Bochy were a smart and forward-thinking manager, he’d start bringing in Wilson when leverage dictated it, not when the scoreboard operator turns on the “9.” The whole “defined roles” thing isn’t just ineffective, it’s lazy and willfully ignorant.&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;

Yeah, it&#039;s not just Bochy that thinks that way, but 90% of all baseball managers. What you&#039;ve suggested, while right on the money, is basically baseball heresy. El Lefty Malo made the same grip over at his site, saying that during the Houston series Bochy didn&#039;t call in Wilson at all because he never had a save situation to use him in.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Delorean</p>
<p>Thanks! I&#8217;m glad you enjoy the work, I really do appreciate your comments and input.</p>
<blockquote><p><cite>If Bochy were a smart and forward-thinking manager, he’d start bringing in Wilson when leverage dictated it, not when the scoreboard operator turns on the “9.” The whole “defined roles” thing isn’t just ineffective, it’s lazy and willfully ignorant.</cite></p></blockquote>
<p>Yeah, it&#8217;s not just Bochy that thinks that way, but 90% of all baseball managers. What you&#8217;ve suggested, while right on the money, is basically baseball heresy. El Lefty Malo made the same grip over at his site, saying that during the Houston series Bochy didn&#8217;t call in Wilson at all because he never had a save situation to use him in.</p>
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		<title>By: delorean</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/08/15/bullpen-numbers-for-your-consideration/comment-page-1/#comment-3641</link>
		<dc:creator>delorean</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2008 15:58:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=818#comment-3641</guid>
		<description>Excellent analysis as always, Chris. I wish I had the patience, dedication, and knowledge to be able to break these things down. I really do appreciate your work!

To paraphrase the &quot;great&quot; Don Rumsfeld, you have to go to war with the bullpen you have, not the bullpen you want. Apart from Wilson, the bullpen is pretty craptastic. (We miss you, Merkin! Get well soon!!) I had high hopes for the Romos and Hinshaws of the world, but they&#039;re not getting the job done consistently. 

If Bochy were a smart and forward-thinking manager, he&#039;d start bringing in Wilson when leverage dictated it, not when the scoreboard operator turns on the &quot;9.&quot; The whole &quot;defined roles&quot; thing isn&#039;t just ineffective, it&#039;s lazy and willfully ignorant. 

Let&#039;s begin the healing by dumping all relievers whose names end in &quot;-er.&quot; That seems fair, don&#039;t you think?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Excellent analysis as always, Chris. I wish I had the patience, dedication, and knowledge to be able to break these things down. I really do appreciate your work!</p>
<p>To paraphrase the &#8220;great&#8221; Don Rumsfeld, you have to go to war with the bullpen you have, not the bullpen you want. Apart from Wilson, the bullpen is pretty craptastic. (We miss you, Merkin! Get well soon!!) I had high hopes for the Romos and Hinshaws of the world, but they&#8217;re not getting the job done consistently. </p>
<p>If Bochy were a smart and forward-thinking manager, he&#8217;d start bringing in Wilson when leverage dictated it, not when the scoreboard operator turns on the &#8220;9.&#8221; The whole &#8220;defined roles&#8221; thing isn&#8217;t just ineffective, it&#8217;s lazy and willfully ignorant. </p>
<p>Let&#8217;s begin the healing by dumping all relievers whose names end in &#8220;-er.&#8221; That seems fair, don&#8217;t you think?</p>
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		<title>By: Chris</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/08/15/bullpen-numbers-for-your-consideration/comment-page-1/#comment-3640</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2008 14:48:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=818#comment-3640</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ll kick this one off:

I&#039;m a Romo fanboy. I just like his stuff and style. I think he could be a good bullpen guy. Hinshaw could be great if he learns to control the strikezone more. Sadler has STUFF but control has prevented him from being good. I actually don&#039;t mind Misch as a reliever, he excelled in that role in the minors. Matos doesn&#039;t do much for me, not sure why. I&#039;m not sure Geno will make it in the majors, he throws slower than Zito -- topping out at like 82mph -- and his upside is probably a LOOGY. Still, I&#039;ll always love the guy that rocks the stirrups.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ll kick this one off:</p>
<p>I&#8217;m a Romo fanboy. I just like his stuff and style. I think he could be a good bullpen guy. Hinshaw could be great if he learns to control the strikezone more. Sadler has STUFF but control has prevented him from being good. I actually don&#8217;t mind Misch as a reliever, he excelled in that role in the minors. Matos doesn&#8217;t do much for me, not sure why. I&#8217;m not sure Geno will make it in the majors, he throws slower than Zito &#8212; topping out at like 82mph &#8212; and his upside is probably a LOOGY. Still, I&#8217;ll always love the guy that rocks the stirrups.</p>
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