First, big news buzzing in Giants Land this morning. The Giants have made a flurry of draft pick signings. The biggest news is that, according to Andrew Baggarly — whom I feel that I’ve been linking to almost everyday for the past week, keep up the great work Andrew — is that #5 overall pick Buster Posey is on the verge of signing a $7.5M major league deal. With the deadline to sign your draftees on Friday, August 15th, the Giants have been standing on the precipice to get a deal done.
In addition to Buster, the Giants have inked third-rounder OF Roger Kieschnick for $525,000 and fourth-rounder, UCLA SS Brandon Crawford for $375,000. The Crawford signing is good news because before his college season began, many thought he would play himself into the first round, instead, he struggled this year and played himself out of the first round. Rumors were that he was considering going back to school to try and improve his stock. Kieschnick was rated as the best talent coming out of Texas this year by Baseball America. The Giants also signed intriguing 13th-rounder Juan Carlos Perez who set a Division II Junior College record for home runs in a season with 37. He’s had some visa issues and he signed a ’09 contract to give him time to sort them out.
These signings really cap a nice draft by the Giants this year. I like what the Giants did in the draft, taking a guy they really liked in Posey — who could have been a #1 pick overall — and going with some higher ceiling guys in Kieschnick and Crawford and getting a really polished hitter in Conor Gillaspie — who’s already signed and is playing for the AZL Giants. The Giants loaded up on hitting on the first day, taking 4 hitters with their first 4 picks and jumped into the pitchers on the 2nd day, finding some nice talent in the later rounds.
With these signings, here’s how I would sketch out the Top 10 Giants Prospects:
1. LHP Madison Bumgarner – Has dominated A-ball in Augusta. Plus velocity from the left-side, pinpoint control, and a developing slurvy breaking pitch. One of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
2. C Buster Posey – Everyone knows what he did in his junior year at Florida State; he hit: (.463/.566/.879) with 26 HR’s. A Golden Spikes winner, Posey is very athletic and entered college as a shortstop. Some question how well his power will translate — most see him as more of a 10-15 HR guy than 20+ HR guy — to the majors, but he’s one of the “safest” picks in the ’08 draft in terms of reaching a sustainable ceiling.
3. RHP Tim Alderson – Tim 2.0 has responded extremely well to the challenge the Giants set forth to him; skipping a high school draftee straight to the California League is something you don’t often see. Watching him survive a hitters league and flourish is also out of the ordinary. But, the Giants were very impressed with the polish that Alderson had coming out of high school. He leads the Cal League in FIP at the age of 19 and is third in K%.
4. 1B Angel Villalona - Lots of power and still very, very young. He just turned 18 and has been competing for most of the year as a 17-year-old in the South Atlantic League where the average age of the competition is 21-years-old. He’s striking out a good bit, K% of 24.8, but scouts still love where he’s at in his development. Leads the Greenjackets in HR’s.
5. 1B/C Pablo Sandoval - Out of any Giants prospect, Pablo may have taken the biggest step forward this year. He carried his power surge from San Jose in ’07 over into this year, posting ISOP’s of .200 or greater across two levels of A and AA baseball. He’s a switch-hitter and can handle both 1B and catching duties. For a system that’s lacked hitters near the upper-levels, Pablo has been a diamond in the rough. He should make his debut tonight against the Astros.
6. 3B Conor Gillaspie – Currently in the AZL, Gillaspie profiles as a solid contact hitting 3B. He probably won’t develop much power but he should hit and hit a lot of doubles. The Giants have had talks about moving him to 2B, but the system is thinner at 3B, so he’ll probably get every chance to play himself out of that position.
7. 2B Nick Noonan - I’m not thrilled with Noonan’s microscopic walk rate, his BB% is currently at 3.7%, but it’s his first full-season of pro-ball outside of high school, so he gets a little slack. He would benefit from cutting his K’s down, his K% is currently at 18.4%, but he still profiles as a 2B that can hit a little and run a little. There are a couple of things I don’t like about Noonan, but I can chalk it up to “he’s still young” for now.
8. RHP Henry Sosa - Sosa has battled some injury problems this year, his season was delayed from knee surgery but when he’s right the tall lanky pitcher works in the mid-90′s and has a plus curveball. His K% is strong at 24% and I still love his arm. I think he’s a prospect that you can’t really judge by his performance this year but by the overall package.
9. OF Wendell Fairley - Fairley might have the highest ceiling of any Giants prospect currently in the farm system. His start was delayed this year because of some health issues but he’s finally getting regular playing time in the AZL. His batting line of: ( .241/.371/.324) isn’t dominating, but he’s getting playing time to develop and that’s the most important thing.
10. OF Rafael Rodriguez - An international signing from this year, Rodriguez became the highest paid international talent that the Giants have ever signed. The 16-year-old inked a deal for $2.55M, surpassing the $2.1M that Villalona got in ’06. The reports on him are vague, he’s got great raw power, but his hitting mechanics need work. He should be a strong fielder in a corner OF spot, sporting a strong throwing arm and good speed to cover ground. He’s had comparisons to Dave Winfield and Vlad, which both should be taken with grains ‘o salt. The Giants hope that Rodriguez can see a little time in the AZL this year and he’ll start ’09 as his first full pro-season.
Just missed: Nate Schierholtz, Roger Kieschnick, Brandon Crawford, Jesse English, Travis Ishikawa, Kevin Pucetas, Ben Snyder, Clayton Tanner, and Joe Martinez.
I think it’s interesting to note that in my Top-10, the Giants have 7 hitters and 3 pitchers. For a pitching heavy team, the hitting is a welcome change.
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I did get around to watching the Giants play the Astros last night, mostly because I wanted to see Rholinger play, but what an ugly game it turned out to be. The Giants ended up falling completely apart in the 6th inning. Zito was cruising along until the aforementioned inning of doom. It looked like this:
| T Wigginton reached on infield single to shortstop. | 1 | 0 |
| M Loretta walked, T Wigginton to second. | 1 | 0 |
| M Tejada singled to center, T Wigginton to third, M Loretta to second. | 1 | 0 |
| L Berkman walked, T Wigginton scored, M Loretta to third, M Tejada to second. | 1 | 1 |
| G Blum hit sacrifice fly to left, M Loretta scored, M Tejada to third, L Berkman to second. | 1 | 2 |
| H Pence intentionally walked. | 1 | 2 |
| R Abercrombie hit sacrifice fly to center, M Tejada scored. | 1 | 3 |
| H Quintero hit by pitch, L Berkman to third, H Pence to second. | 1 | 3 |
| R Wolf walked, L Berkman scored, H Pence to third, H Quintero to second. | 1 | 4 |
| B Sadler relieved B Zito. | 1 | 4 |
| E Velez at second base. | 1 | 4 |
| T Wigginton hit by pitch, H Pence scored, H Quintero to third, R Wolf to second. | 1 | 5 |
| M Loretta hit by pitch, H Quintero scored, R Wolf to third, T Wigginton to second. | 1 | 6 |
| M Tejada flied out to right. | 1 | 6 |
It was maybe one of the sloppiest, ugliest innings of baseball that I’ve seen in awhile. A combination of bad luck — Wiggington was called safe when he was actually out by a half-step on a nice play by Omar — and poor execution — walks, HBP’s, and poor throwing decisions — sunk the Giants. Maybe the most criminal was when Zito walked the opposing pitcher, Randy Wolf, with the bases loaded to force in a run. If you’ve read any Zito quotes in the papers this year, can you guess what he said about that at-bat? I’ll give you a good 5 minutes to think of all the possible responses that Zito might have used. OK, have you got them? Let’s see what he actually said:
Zito had little to say about his final self-destructive act, which was walking Wolf.
“I just lost my aggressiveness,” he said. Against a pitcher batting .140? “I don’t know. I just did,” he said.
The ‘ole not-being-aggressive-enough-excuse, huh? Who else saw that coming? Surely not me. Sadler then came in for Zito and proceeded to throw gas on the fire when he hit two batters with the bases loaded to force in another two runs.
Zito’s final line of the night was:
5.2 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 5 BB, 6 SO
Once again, walks killed Zito. With the loss, Zito drops to 6-15 and is only 3 losses away from challenging the modern record for most losses by a Giants pitcher in a season, currently held by Ray Sadecki for his 1968 season in which he went 12-18. Sadecki’s ERA+ for that season was 103, indicating that he wasn’t actually all that bad. Another reason why W/L records aren’t a good way to judge pitchers. But, Zito’s ERA+ this year is 75, indicating that he probably deserves his poor record.
Rohlinger looked decent, he airmailed his very first throw to 1st base on the night and made another fielding error in the bottom of the 7th. Maybe nerves? He did make some decent contact a couple of times, hitting an RBI double down the RF line in the 7th inning. I’ll be watching to see how Rohlinger does for the rest of the year along with Ishikawa and Pablo.
Comment Starter: What’s your Top-10 look like?
I feel like I might have Noonan a little high, maybe swap him out with Schierholtz? That would make some sense. But, I feel like I’m giving Noonan credit for peforming — even if it’s just a little — over guys like Fairley and Rodriguez who are largely unproven.
Hey, what are the chances that Zito will follow Castillo out to door? Yea, I know, just wishfull thinking. Are we really going to have to watch this guy every 5 days for the next 4 years? Wouldn’t that qualify as “cruel and inhuman punishment”?
BTW, is it just me, or have other people noticed that Zito tends to melt down right after he is given a lead? I don’t have the stats to prove/ disprove it so I thought I’d throw it out there….
Connor Gillaspie: He hits doubles?
Excellent analysis on the prospects, Chris; I don’t see anything wrong with your list at all. You know my concerns about Alderson already.
The Crawford pick and signing could turn into a major coup if he regains his form of a year ago. I really, really like that pick!
@RV
I think only in our wildest dreams…
I haven’t looked at when Zito melts down but my thinking is that it’s happening at any time this year.
@Delorean
Gillaspie: Dude hits doubles! But he can also hit as well.
I’m not overly concerned with Alderson’s velo right now, he’s K’ing guys decently and he’s done extremely well at his level and at his age. He’s probably performing as good as anyone could have hoped. I was slightly worried when he was drafted that he might end up in the bullpen — because of his delivery and makeup some thought he could be “fast-tracked” (I hate that term) — but I think he’s shown this year that he’s definitely cut out to start. Most reports I’ve seen say that he can break 90mph. Hopefully you either saw him on a low day or the stadium gun was a little off.
Kudos, Chris, this is one of your best, and best written articles. Yes, it was entirely predictable what Zito’s explanation would be. But while the carnage was occuring, it was evident that Astro hitters were laying off his pitches that were outside the zone AND that he was, if anything, nibbling more. I am basically OK with Rags and Molina – but where were they? That, it seems to me, is a situation that calls for the C or PC to go out and make sure the pitcher is aware of the changed hitting approach and Zito’s apparant reaction. This is particularly true with Zito, I would think, where he has routinely lost his aggressiveness. Why not get out there and tell him, even tho the strike zone has shrunk, he’s going to have to challenge.
@Frank
Thanks for the kudos.
What worries me the most about Zito’s lack of aggressiveness was when he walked the pitcher. If there was one guy he could have challenged, it was Wolf, but he just couldn’t throw strikes. I have no idea if he has a physical problem throwing a baseball. Maybe it’s mental. Maybe it’s both.
It boggles the mind.
I love Bumgarner, but I now that the system has a few actual hitters in it I can’t put a pitcher at #1, unless his name is Lincecum. I mean, Bumgarner is good and young and lefthanded, but The Kid schooled minor-league hitters in a way you rarely ever see. That gets you top-prospect billing. Anyone else, the risk of arm-fall-off-itis is just too high.
My ten:
1. Posey. He’s “signed” enough for me, he’ll hit albeit not at superstar level, he’ll play good defense at a premium position and he is advanced enough overall soundly to beat out..
2. Villalona. Yes, he Ks too much. But at his age with his power.. whew. Quite some risk, but the upside with the bat is superior. Of course, I dream of a move back to third, but I suppose it is not to be.
3. Bumgarner. Doing everything but getting ground balls. If everything goes right, he’ll be Matt Cain, but lefty, and without the walks. Or his arm falls off. Pitchers, pitchers..
4. Gillaspie. Upside: the next Bill Mueller. Downside: below-average middle infield type. Yes, watching Castillo has been painful, but that’s a pretty good downside.
5. Sandoval. Proved his summer-2007 breakout was for real. Tempted to move him to #4, but there are worries: the walk rate, mostly
6. Alderson. I like him lots, but he’s a young pitcher deep in the arm-fall-off years. I can’t see slotting him higher, especially with that home/road split.
7. Rodriguez. I believe the scouts. Probably overrated, but this is a weak system and he has potential.
8. Schierholtz. Good enough to play an average right field right now.
9. Noonan. He’ll hit some, but I don’t think he’ll have the glove really to make that matter.
10. Joseph Martinez. Well, maybe not (in the real world, probably Tanner), but he’s had a nice season and word is he’s a really nice guy.
Who-is-this-guy honorable mention: Hector Sanchez, DSL. Nice numbers, catcher, pretty young, but nobody cares. I assume he’s flawed.
@wcw
I like your list and I’m interested that Martinez made your top-10. I like his year in AA, he’s fringey but his GB% is a nice bonus that makes me think he could be for real.
You’re right that our system needs hitting and most our hitting prospects are high risk / high reward types. Villalona, Rodriguez, and Fairley are all HRHR-types, Posey is considered less of a risk, so he adds some stability to the system that can’t be downplayed.
Not a fan of Sosa? Good name drop on Hector Sanchez, I’ve never heard of him until now.
I did say, in the real world, probably Tanner. Martinez is a bad bet because he just doesn’t have the stuff. He’s Jonathan Sanchez’s age, give or take, in double-A. He is, however, having his best year as a pro and sports a top-five FIP in his league, so I threw him in as a comment starter. Besides, you never know.
Sanchez is putting up his second-straight year with pretty good numbers with the bat in the DSL. I had hoped he’d move up, and so have assumed he was flawed since he didn’t. Still, unlike most Giants hitting prospects not named Villalona, he’s not old for his level despite repeating it, still only 18.
I’ve read some reports on Martinez that he works around 90-91, which isn’t terrible, about average for a MLB fastball. I’m guessing he gets good movement on his pitches or something because GB numbers. I think he’s also got a fringey CB that he can spot well, a back of the rotation starter at best most likely but I like the year he’s having.
Would you rank Tanner over Sosa?