Quick post today, Matt Cain has historically been a better pitcher in the 2nd half of the season. It’s not surprising to see him do well in his first three starts since the 2nd half started — 4 GS, 28.2 IP, 24 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 10 BB, 23 SO, 1.57 ERA.
Something I’ve noticed with Cain since the All-Star break is that he seems to really be throwing a lot of off-speed and breaking pitches. Cain has always been a fastball first pitcher, and he still is, but it’s looking like lately he’s mixing in his other pitches more than he has in the past.
Using FanGraphs’ Pitch Type — provided by BIS — numbers, we can see what Cain threw in the past. The following plot is from 2006-2008. ‘X’ stands for his start against the Braves last night and while I didn’t plot his pitch types for all four starts since the break, I suspect that they might look similar. That is, if I believe what my eyes are telling me, Cain is throwing more breaking and off-speed pitches.
YEAR FB CU CB SL 2006 72 5.8 14.1 6.7 2007 64.5 10.4 8.6 16.5 2008 66 10.7 9.4 13.9 x 60.2 15.7 17.6 6.5
FB (Fastball), CU (Changeup), CB (Curveball), SL (Slider)
You can see that since ’06, Cain has reduced the usage on his fastball by 6-8%. You can credit the development of his changeup and slider as factors in the reduction of his fastball usage. Cain’s curveball always had a good reputation as a plus-pitch and he used it 14.1% of the time in his first full season as a starter in ’06. But, since that year, Cain has backed off of his curve. He has not thrown it in double digits since his first year as a starter.
If you watched last nights game against the Braves and thought you noticed that Cain was throwing more breaking stuff, you would be right. Your eyes didn’t deceive you. Cain did throw a bunch of curveballs last night. 17.6% of Cain’s pitches last night registered as a curveball by MLB Gameday’s application. If Cain maintained that rate over a full season, it would be the highest percentage of curveballs thrown in a season for Matt Cain. It wasn’t only his curveball that Cain used last night, he also threw his changeup 15.7% of the time, 5% above his established averages in ’07 and ’08. Cain didn’t go to his slider much last night after using it the most ever in a season in ’07.
Another thing I’ve noticed is that Cain’s velocity is either down, or he’s making a effort to throw slower. Just by eyeballing PFX data and watching the TV gun — not always the best way to figure out velocity — over Cain’s first three starts in the 2nd half, his velocity was slightly lower than usual.
Cain’s velocity on his fastball from 2005 to the present: 93.2, 93.4, 93.2, 92.5
From ’05-’07 Cain threw his fastball at 93mph but this year it’s dropped by almost 1mph. So, it appears that Cain is throwing slightly slower this year. I especially recall in his start against Washington that he threw a few 89-90mph fastballs, which seemed a little on the low side for me. Cain’s velocity was better last night, hitting 93 a few times in PFX and slightly higher on the hotter TV gun. This could be a random fluctuation of Cain’s velocity that might even out over the rest of the year but it’s something that I’ve noticed and it’s something that we should keep an eye on. Cain is still very young at 23-years-old and is getting ready to pass the injury nexus for young pitching.
It’s great to see Cain throwing well right now and interesting to see if he’s changing his pitching style or not. Keep watching, I know I will.
Great info Chris, thanks!
We were at the game last night, and Matt really looked out of sorts in the first coupla innings. His control looked rough, and he wasn’t able to spot his off-speed stuff at all. He was out there with only the fastball, and he wasn’t even spotting that very well. (Again, this is only in the first inning or two.)
His growth as a pitcher really showed in how he fought through his early wildness to spot his off-speed pitches his second time through the order. (Hey, maybe this was all by design? Maybe…) Anyway, once he got in the groove, weren’t no one gonna get him out of it. He even hit 95 once on the stadium gun late in the game! What a great outing.
Oh, also, in the wrap, Jon Miller was talking about SABR guys and their disdain for Brian Wilson and his peripherals. “These SABR types must not be watching the games,” he said, “because Wilson is getting the job done!” (Way to totally miss the point, Jon. I still love you, though.)
Anyway, that little aside made me think of you, Doc.
Hey delorean,
Thanks for the first hand account, watching Cain do well in starts like his last against Atlanta is one of the few bright spots in this season. I think people tend to forget how young he his and the fact that he’s putting up 120-ish ERA+ seasons in his age 22 and 23 years is a good sign.
Haha, thanks for the Miller anecdote. I love Jon but the CLOSERS role in baseball is one of the weirdest things ever. The new Jim Caple article on ESPN is a decent look at the absurdness of the save stat and closer usage.
Did you hear Miller pronounces OPS (oh pee es) on Sunday Night baseball a month or so ago? He called it “OPS” like “Special OPS”. It was pretty funny and I think FJM riffed on it.
Thanks for the thought, I’m glad my SABR ramblings has at least made a few people think about baseball differently.
Hi Chris,
First time poster, but I’ve been reading your blog for a while and I love your work.
Would there be any reason to believe that Steve Holm has anything to do Cain mixing up his pitches and/or his recent success? Cain pitches better when Holm catches (.219/.303/.344 against) than when Molina catches (.240/.315/.390 against), but the sample sizes are so small that the numbers probably don’t mean much.
Molina has done a good job with the pitchers. The only problem I’ve noticed is that he sometimes tends to call for one pitch too often until the pitcher gets beaten up. Whereas Molina will stay with a pitch, Holm seems cognizant of what pitches work for the pitcher that game, and mix it up from there.
The percentages from Fangraphs suggest that Cain’s incorporation of his other pitches to reduce his reliance on the fastball has been his goal for a while and not just because of Holm’s catching style. I guess that we see Cain’s improvement when Holm catches because Holm’s style is geared to highlight such improvement.
Hi Cat,
Welcome to the blog, good to see you commenting, I enjoy FRJ.
You pretty much answered my answer (does that sound right?) with the last sentence in your paragraph about sample sizes. It’s such a small sample size that I don’t think you can determine anything from the 4 games that Holm caught for Cain, other than Cain has pitched well. The question of whether or not Holm has any future ability to make Cain pitch better isn’t likely, in my opinion.
Studies have shown that catchers with the label of “pitchers catchers” — like Mike Matheny used to have — really don’t matter much. After all, if Matheny, or Holm in this case, had any power to make pitchers better, it should be apparent for all pitchers. That is, seeing a noticeable difference in pitchers when they work with a “pitchers catcher” and when they work with a “non-pitchers catcher”. Studies have shown that it’s random. One year a pitcher will pitch great to a PC (pitchers catcher) and the next year, he won’t. One year he’ll throw really well with a NPC (non-pitcher catcher) and the next year he won’t.
Game calling isn’t a skill that’s been proven in any study, not to say that it doesn’t exist but if it does, it’s so small that it’s undetectable. Catchers help their pitchers the most by doing tangible things, ie: catching the ball, throwing out baserunners, etc.
Now, you could use PFX data and see if Molina calls a game a certain way, which he very well might. But I’m not sure how much it matters in the long run of how a catcher calls a game. My reasoning is that Molina isn’t going to have Cain throwing his 4th best pitcher 70% of the time in a game. Catchers will call the pitches that pitchers throw the best.