Is Jonathan Sanchez gassed?
July has been an ill month for not only Sanchez, but the Giants as a team. Sanchez is currently sitting at 123 innings pitched at the major league level for 2008. In 2007, he amassed 52 innings at the major league level with an additional 23.2 innings at Fresno AAA. That gives Sanchez a total of 75.2 innings pitched in ’07. Sanchez has made a series of quick exits from his games in July, check out his IP per start over the last 5 games.
Sanchez’s IP per start in July: 5, 4. 5.1, 2.2, 4
Those are Zito-esque performances. Sanchez isn’t staying in games and his control has been problematic. In his last two starts he’s walked 4 in each game and his BB% for July — in a stupidly small sample size of 21 innings — is at 19.5%. You’ll never confuse Sanchez for a pitcher that can paint the corners, he’s more of a “here it is, hit it” pitcher, but walking hitters nearly 20% of the time isn’t a good sign.
In the Game Scores Plots from earlier in this month, I mused about Sanchez’s workload and how the Giants might handle it.
One thing that I’m worried about after working with these plots is how the Giants are going to handle Sanchez’s workload in the 2nd half of the season. He’s thrown 111 innings already this year and last year, between AAA and the majors, he threw 75.2 innings in total. 23.2 of those 75.2 innings came from Fresno and I’m a believer that major league innings induce more stress and create more wear and tear on a pitchers arm.
I fielded that question to you, the readers, and the response was similar: Protect Sanchez, but let him throw until he starts having problems or until he starts struggling. The problem is, where do you draw the line. How do you exactly know that Sanchez is starting to cross that workload line? His velocity was down last night and his control was poor. Both can be seen as indicators that Sanchez is tired, or going through a “dead arm” period. How he bounces back, if he can bounce back, is the question we must consider.
Sanchez’s situation is difficult because he’s taken a step forward this year. You might not know it by his last 5 starts, but Sanchez will play a very important role in the future of the Giants’ starting rotation. The Giants starting pitching depth isn’t as strong as we believed before the season started. Zito is still ineffective and we don’t know what the future holds for him. I’m guessing it doesn’t hold a return to his glory days. Noah Lowry might not ever start another game in the majors again. His arm troubles still present a huge mountain to climb. Take one of Pat Misch, Steve Hammond, Matt Palmer, and you can round out your rotation. Sanchez might not have the ultimate upside of Cain or Lincecum, but he’s just as important. He adds some stability — when he’s pitching well — and the hope that he can continue to progress as a starter.
In the wrap up, Sanchez is saying that fatigue isn’t an issue:
Sanchez continued to insist that he’s not fatigued, although his 123 innings are 2 2/3 short of his professional career high.
“I didn’t have it today, but I’m not tired,” he said.
The Giants need to continue to monitor Sanchez closely, devise a plan*, and stick with it.
*This plan does not include the “Throw more pitches, girly man” strategy of past Giants managers.
—
I can handle watching Sanchez struggle, he might have a future. But, what I can’t stand, is watching Bruce Bochy continue to start Omar Vizquel and Jose Castillo. I’ve covered Omar ad nauseum and my distaste for Castillo is known. They are not getting showcased, they are not getting traded, so why are they playing? You can’t showcase a short stop who can’t hit over .200* and you can’t showcase a terrible defensive utility man who doesn’t hit enough or defend enough to make it on any team with playoff aspirations.
It’s mind boggling. Truly, mind boggling.
Now, in a lineup related gripe, here’s your WBQOTW:
Manager Bruce Bochy indicated Tuesday that Castillo, who has started 83 games at third base, is receiving a chance to prove himself at second, where he was a regular for Pittsburgh from 2004-06.
“We want to take somewhat of a look at him,” Bochy said.
And if that wasn’t enough, here’s one to grow on:
Entering Tuesday, Castillo had accelerated his offensive pace, batting .323 (10-for-31) in his previous eight games. Castillo’s 37 extra-base hits, including 27 doubles, were tied for second-most on the team.
“I like the way he swings the bat,” Bochy said.
First, selective stats like this drive me crazy. Over a selected 8 game period, Castillo wasn’t truly horrible. Give that man a starting job! Small. Sample. Size. It’s also the same selective stats that I’ve heard used with Omar Vizquel. Did you know from July 13rd to July 23 Omar hit (.471/.500/.647), clearly he’s back as a player and we should just ignore the previous 200 AB’s that he accumulated to this point.
Second, you like the way he swings a bat? He’s second on the team in extra-base hits? Jose Castillo is a bad hitter on a terrible hitting team, this does not make him a good hitter. Sure, I could probably dominate T-Ball if I wanted to, but that doesn’t make me skilled at the game of baseball. Castillo has never been a good hitter, he plays bad defense, and what part of his (.258/.308/.407) line excites you, Bruce? Is this how far we’ve fallen? Has Jose Castillo become an attractive player for the Giants? We moved the statue of Ray Durham and replaced him with … Jose Castillo? One step forward, seven backwards.
—
The trading deadline officially ends today at 4PM EST. I’ll trade you two busted veterans and an overweight catcher for a Jeff McKnight autographed baseball card. Deal?
To be fair to Castillo, that’s a 39.8% XBH ratio, which is not too shabby. David Wright, who is pretty good himself, “only” has 41.3%. He would be fine if he were batting where he should be, 7th, maybe 6th on occassion. Winn should have been hitting 2nd, maybe hitting 3rd has made him change his batting strategy and caused his recent struggles.
I have no problems with the Giants checking out Castillo at 2B. Neither Burriss nor Velez are sure thing prospects at 2B and neither has done particularly well in their short time with the Giants. Plus Frandsen we don’t know about either, though there is enough success to hope that he will succeed. Castillo at least has shown that he can hit adequately for a 2B with some power.
I think they want to give Castillo regular play while showcasing Aurilia at 3B, plus see how he looks fielding 2B. He is as inconsistent as advertised, thus far, and I’m assuming this will keep the Giants looking. But he has done well enough to deserve a look at his natural position, he bit the bullet for us and played out of position at 3B and has done OK for us, not good, but OK, it is not the sinkhole we would have imagined it would be when Frandsen when down, can you imagine if Rohlinger were starting there, or worse, if the Giants decided to trade for someone there. Castillo has been cheap and OK, he should be rewarded and given his chance (which he appears to be blowing).
I’ll start worrying about all this if the Giants continue to do this after, say, this coming weekend, particularly regarding Vizquel. As much as you cry small samples about his two week “binge”, for a veteran player with so many years under the belt, 200 AB is small samples as well.
To make your point much stronger, you should have noted that he has sucked as a hitter since the beginning of 2007 season, and THAT’S why he should be sat down and let the other guys play. He hasn’t had one good month since then, as much as I respect him, he should hold to his word that he would be OK with the younger guys playing instead of him.
I would love to see both Burriss and Ochoa get regular playing time, perhaps the three of them (Velez too) can share the two positions (2B/SS) with Omar getting 2-3 starts per week. That’s still works out to about 70 PA for each prospect per month if split evenly, that is pretty regular play.
But this is Omar, and if there is a chance he can return to his prior goodness, which that short streak showed a glimpse of, you need to show him respect and give him a few more games. This is not fantasy baseball where you can bench players with no consequence. The Manager has to see and interact with the guy everyday, luckily Omar’s a pro, but a player could poison a clubhouse pretty quickly if he wanted to. A manager has to account for that when making decisions.
He also has to treat vets with Omar’s pedigree with a certain level of respect or the younger players will see that and maybe decide that Bochy deserve similar treatment and don’t give his years of managerial experience a certain level of respect. That is a way to lose the clubhouse as well. That’s why Billy Martin was a travelling manager, he showed nobody respect, getting short term bursts of over production, but then wore out his welcome and it was time for him to get out of Dodge.
@OGC
Now THAT’S a misleading statistic. XBH% tells us nothing about what kind of extra-base hits a player is getting. Sure, they are close, but Wright has 16 more home runs. He’s slugging over 100 points higher than Castillo, getting on base near a 100 points higher than Castillo (because, unlike Castillo, he actually walks), plays supremely better defense than Castillo, he probably also dresses better than Castillo. That might be the most sophistic argument I’ve ever seen for Castillo.
Sure, but Castillo has had 1,500 AB’s previous to this season to prove that he is not a sure thing, at all. Burriss, or Velez have little chance of being regulars, but that slight chance of what they might become is enormous when you compare it to what Castillo already is. Castillo is not an average 2B by his bat.
2B EqA – .262
Castillo EqA ’08 – .246
Just how does he hit adequately for a 2B? In ’08, a league average batting line for a 2B in the NL is: .268/.335/.411, Castillo his hitting: .258/.308/.407. And he’s poor defensively. Even at second.
You made my point for me in your next paragraph, but his 2007 was also terrible. He’s also 41-years-old and coming off knee surgery. I didn’t think I had to remind any Giants fans of his mighty 62 OPS+ season of ’07.
Sure. I’m not saying we should kill Omar — see my last post — but he should not start 4-5 times a week. He should be a substitute that starts 1-2 times a week.
You’re contradicting yourself. Your argument was:
1. 200 AB’s is a small sample, he’s a veteran, he could come around.
2. He hasn’t had one good month since ’07 — meaning, he’s unlikely to come around.
3. Wait, he’s Omar! He could come around!
No, Omar isn’t coming back around as a hitter. He’s 41-years-old. He’s had a great career. It’s done. What does Fantasy Baseball have to do with anything? And what exactly is the consequence of benching Omar more? He’s grumpy? He will not be on the team next year and he has no business holding a bat in his hands at the major league level. Separate yourself from the GREATNESS that is Omar and make a decision.
I’m pretty sure a grumpy Omar isn’t going to rip apart the clubhouse. If he makes waves, cut him. He won’t make waves. You know why? If he was on any other team — except maybe the Mariners — he would be out of baseball.
The Giants have been very nice to Omar this year. The celebration for his record breaking game at SS, etc. The Giants even said they were “too embarrassed” to cut him. They’ve been very nice to Omar. Let him sit down for the rest of the season and enjoy one last time being in the majors. I like Omar, you like Omar, we all like Omar, but he’s done and the Giants need to play for the future and not the whims of a 41-year-old SS on his last legs of his career.
I guess I respect Omar more than you do then. Baseball, as much as it is about the future, celebrates its past too. So you don’t disrespect a possible Hall of Famer by sitting him down for the season when we don’t have great alternatives in place. If we had a valid SS prospect, that would be another thing, but neither Burriss or Ochoa look like they are keepers yet.
Perhaps I didn’t make myself clear on Omar. I would like Omar to be done, but give him the bone of some play each week instead of humiliating him by totally benching him or releasing him; I wouldn’t be as nice if we had a legit SS prospect waiting but Omar is a pro and would understand in that case, however, Burriss and Ochoa are not legit prospects ready for the show. Bochy was letting Omar play and for a brief while, he was actually hitting, so I have no problem that Omar is playing right now, just so Bochy can see what we all have seen, that Omar is done. Is that clear now?
About Castillo, well, of course Wright hits more homers, that’s true with the minors too, some hit homers and other hit doubles, but still analysts compare XBH% for them. Admittedly, that is partly because they are young and doubles could become homers, but people forget that Castillo is still relatively young himself, he’s only 27, and physical peak for hitters range from 28-32 (depending on who you talk to), so some of his doubles could start changing into homers.
I’m not saying give him the job, but I can understand why they are giving him the opportunity to show off what he got, it is still more than either Burriss or Ochoa has shown in the minors.
You like to throw out EQA, but how about some MLEs, that has also shown what Velez, Burriss and Ochoa did last year in the minors that would translate into MLB stats:
Ochoa: .257/.292/.363/.655
Velez: .252/.289/.328/.617
Burriss: .224/.259/.259/.518; based on his A-ball when he did well
Now Ochoa and Velez has improved in 2008:
Ochoa: .272/.339/.369/.706
Velez: .267/.317/.421/.738
But as you know, that is in small sample sizes which flies in the face of the horrible results they had “achieved” in the minors previously. So sure, I’m OK with giving them a chance, but I’m not giving them the red carpet treatment either, none of them have ever done that well offensively in the minors and thus do not deserve the benefit of the doubt in the majors.
About Castillo, what he has proven is that he didn’t know how to hit for much when he was younger. However, Vizquel didn’t figure things out until he was 29 offensively. I’m not saying Castillo will do like Vizquel and figure things out, I’m saying that he’s at least show that he can hit 700 OPS in the majors. That is not good but it is OK. As BP and other analysts say, and I agree, average in the majors is still pretty good, so the use the Replacement Level Players as a way to show value for average players. I’m pretty sure 700 OPS is above replacement level for 2B and thus my statement that he’s “OK”.
Right now, we need a bunch of OK starters to field a team, while we look at acquiring the star hitters who will lead the offense. Rowand and Lewis look pretty good right now. Castillo would be OK at 2B, though I would be more than happy if Frandsen, Velez, or Burriss prove to be better, and I would give them opportunities to show that.
But not playing them now to see Castillo right now is fine with me AS LONG AS these young guys get to play later. We are not mind-readers or fortune-tellers (near as I can tell, I know I’m not), so we don’t know what’s going to happen. Why not wait to see what the Giants do before huffing and puffing about Castillo getting a chance to show what he can do at 2B?
@OGC
I don’t respect Omar enough? Seriously? That’s a weak argument, it has nothing to do with respect, but performance and the future. Two things which Omar isn’t either doing or being a part of.
XBH% is not a good stat.
Here’s my problem with it, a hypothetical. You’ve got two players with 100 hits in the same number of AB’s. Player A has 40 hits that are all doubles. Player B has 40 hits that are all home runs. By XBH% they both have a rate of 40% but it doesn’t take into account any context, at all. XBH% tell’s us little to nothing.
Players peak at 27, I’ve never seen it extended to 32. What we’re seeing is the “Best of Jose Castillo” and it’s still bad. Once he steps over that cliff and starts to decline, oooh-boy.
They aren’t “legit” prospects but I have two problems with them being on the roster right now.
1. They aren’t used at all. This is especially criminal with Burriss who was skipped from A-ball to the majors to get all of 26 sporadic at-bats in July.
2. They may not be “legit” but neither is Omar, no matter how cagey and gamery he is.
Bochy has continually played Omar since he came back and he ran into a 8-game sample where he was hitting well. All of the sudden he’s back? Either the Giants have no plan for their younger prospects like Burriss or they can’t evaluate performances or get past Omar’s credentials. Each is damning in my opinion.
As for the MLE’s, I’ve seen you yourself say that “They are just translations, guys can exceed them” so give Burriss or Ochoa a chance. Once again, it’s about future planning. I’m going to hammer that point home in these responses.
Vizquel and Castillo are not close as player-types. Vizquel walked slightly more, even in his younger years, and made better contact than Castillo. Castillo has more pop, but everyone has more pop than Omar. I don’t think you can compare them and say that Castillo could get better.
Sure, league average is better than league replacement but you never differentiated. You called Castillo ‘adequate’ not a ‘replacement level player’. He might be barely over replacement level, which he is by BP’s standards which have been criticized for being set so very low.
He’s not an OK starter, he’s washed out of two franchises already. He doesn’t hit and he doesn’t play defense. His overall value isn’t OK, it’s POOR. The more time the Giants kick around by running Castillo out there every night because he “intrigues” Bruce Bochy is time lost.
Castillo is proven and he’s proven to be not very good.