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Chris
Chris

OGC, I'm glad you enjoyed it. This is definitely just a "poke my head above ground and look around" sort of study, but it's something that I'd like to revisit and make better at some point. On to your comments. <cite>I think it would be tough to lay an injury on his recent performance. Being human, we sometimes makes imperceptible changes in how we do things, even things we do 100 times a game every 5-6 days over 8 seasons. In addition, if you’ve read Malcolm Gladwell’s work on athletes and how they react to stress situations, he found that some players revert back to how they were when starting out: instead of using instincts and doing what they did successfully before, they become conscious of everything they do, guiding every motion, which slows things down for them too much and they lose the instinctual mechanics which they spent a lifetime developing that made them successful. I think that’s what happened to Zito, despite all his professed zenness. He needs to get over himself and the contract, and just throw strikes, as he recently pronounced as his mantra.</cite> It's tough to say if he's injured or not, because I don't know. Nobody really knows unless your Barry Zito or maybe the head athletic trainer for the Giants. What I can say is that his slipping numbers remind me of someone who is hurt. I haven't read Mr. Gladwell's work, I'll have to add it to my reading list. What I find concerning is that Zito wanted to change his mechanics before he ever started one game for the Giants. He had success in Oakland but he was wanting to make changes before he ever experienced any of the tough times he's had in San Francisco. That's very interesting to me. <cite>I would be interested to see your analysis, albeit on small samples, done just for this season. He says that things have been different for the last 4-5 starts (don’t remember exactly). What does the numbers you compiled above look like for before and after?</cite> Zito Starts from July 25 onward. Walk Machine 7/27/08 - Arizona, 5 IP, 6 R, 6 ER, 6 H, 4 SO, 5 BB / Strikes% 54.3 Nibblin' 7/10/08 - @Mets, 5 IP, 3 R, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 SO, 6 BB / Strikes% 55.2% Average 6/25/08 - @Cleveland, 6.2 IP, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 SO, 0 BB / Strike% 63.8% 6/30/08 - Cubs, 5 IP, 5 R, 4 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, / Strikes% 60.1% 7/22/08 - Nationals, 6 IP, 3 R, 3 ER, 7 H, 5 SO, 3 BB / Strikes% 58.5% Aggressive 7/05/08 - Dodgers, 7 IP, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 H, 10 SO, 1 BB / Strikes% 66.9 Strike Machine No starts Zito's worst start came against the D-Backs, his lowest Strikes% from July 25th onward. He nibbled on 7/10/08 against the Mets, walking 6 hitters. His Dodgers start, the best of maybe his Giants career, was classified as 'Aggressive'. Thanks for the comments again, I'm hoping to add more to this down the road.

obsessivegiantscompu
obsessivegiantscompu

Great analysis Chris! Yes, very depressing... I think it would be tough to lay an injury on his recent performance. Being human, we sometimes makes imperceptible changes in how we do things, even things we do 100 times a game every 5-6 days over 8 seasons. In addition, if you've read Malcolm Gladwell's work on athletes and how they react to stress situations, he found that some players revert back to how they were when starting out: instead of using instincts and doing what they did successfully before, they become conscious of everything they do, guiding every motion, which slows things down for them too much and they lose the instinctual mechanics which they spent a lifetime developing that made them successful. I think that's what happened to Zito, despite all his professed zenness. He needs to get over himself and the contract, and just throw strikes, as he recently pronounced as his mantra. One weakness in your great analysis was your note about his velocity. Yes, we all know it has been declining for a long while. According to recent starts, however, his velocity is reportedly higher and back in the range where he was successful before, in the high 80's. How would your injury speculation account for that? This piece of evidence (which some dispute as radar gun inflation, but then why weren't his previous readings then also gun inflation?) would dispute your contention of injury. I would be interested to see your analysis, albeit on small samples, done just for this season. He says that things have been different for the last 4-5 starts (don't remember exactly). What does the numbers you compiled above look like for before and after? Has there be any real change? Or has it been same old, same old? It may not be conclusive but it should be interesting. I think something you could do to make this analysis more solid would be to examine other pitchers using this same analysis format. We don't know what the pattern for pitchers are in throwing strikes over a long stretch of time, and during that age range. Could Zito's pattern be a normal pattern? Doubtful, but we don't know for sure until we examine other pitchers in the same way. You could try Jason Schmidt, for example, and see how he has changed over the same time period. We generally know where his injury problems have cropped up over that time span, though it wouldn't be a great comparison since he's already in his 30's and should be declining, plus has a power fastball. Livan would be more interesting, as he is about the same age, had his ups and downs in pitching, not really a strikeout pitcher. Then someone like Brandon Webb would be an interesting contrast, you made some logical conclusions about pitch quality and swinging strikes that I like, he would be a good comparison since his career arc was obviously rising during his 20's, not falling. Again, great job, really enjoyed reading it (well, for the analysis part, not the Zito results part :^).

MrLomez
MrLomez

Or at least hoverboards.

Chris
Chris

This is the last time I'm going to write about Zito for awhile. Every time I start writing about him it just bums me out. 2013 can't come soon enough. Maybe we'll have space cars by then. That'd be cool.

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