Thoughts after last night’s 6-4 win over the Washington Nationals
~ Washington might have one of the ugliest lineups in the National League. If you thought the Giants were punchless, have you seen the Nats? Injuries have decimated Washington, transforming their lineup into a graveyard of bad hitters. Willie Harris, Paul Lo Duca, and Ryan Langerhans should never get a total of 12 AB’s in a game for your team. When you’re playing a combination of Paul Lo Duca — who’s slugging .306 this year — and Ronnie Belliard — who’s hitting more than Paul, but I’ve never seen a 5’8″ first baseman — at first base, you’re in trouble.
~ I didn’t actually see the entire game because I’m on the East Coast. During the work week I just can’t hack, most of the time, games that start at 10PM, by the 6th inning I’m usually asleep. But, despite not seeing the entire game, I was a little surprised to see Correia’s final line this morning. He looked decent through 5 innings, not great, but decent. His final line was:
5.2 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1 HR
After I went to bed in the 5th inning, Correia hit a rough spot in the 6th. He gave up a 2-run HR to Jesus Flores. He then gave up another run on a single to Estrada that scored Ryan Langerhans, who had doubled before Estrada. Correia was fortunate to get out of the inning without giving up more runs. Before Langerhans hit, Felipe Lopez singled and was thrown out trying to steal 2nd base. The 12 hits that Correia gave up were most likely a byproduct of the Giants porous infield defense. The Giants infield is bad at turning balls hit into play into outs. They rank as the 2nd worst infield defense in the National League, they are -37 outs below average in the infield. Only Pittsburgh is worse. In addition, the Giants rarely make plays out of their zones, ranking dead last in OOZ, indicating that the infielders are statuesque defenders with zero range. If you don’t hit the ball right at one of our infielders, they aren’t going to get it. Correia gave up 16 groundballs last night in front of one of the worst infield defenses in the league, it’s not hard to see why he gave up so many hits.
Edit: I had my defensive numbers crossed up. The team is not a -37 by infield, but by overall team defense. That includes both the infield and outfield. Still, the team has below average infield defense. If you use RZR for your metric, only the Mets, Marlins, and D-Backs have weaker defense in the infield. The OOZ statement still stands, the Giants infielders make the least amount of plays outside of their defensive zones.
Still, since Correia returned on June 15th from his oblique injury, he’s not been sharp or the same pitcher we saw at the end of ’07. His overall line since he returned:
32.1 IP, 47 H, 25 R, 24 ER, 15 BB, 22 SO, 4 HR, 6.68 ERA
Is he still hurting some? Giants fans will know the problems associated with oblique injuries by watching Noah Lowry come back too fast and struggle to be consistent. The good news was that Correia did not issue a walk last night. Ideally, I would give Correia another 3-4 starts to see if he can pitch well, but I wouldn’t mind seeing the Giants call up newly acquired Steve Hammond to audition for the 5th starters job. Pat Misch or Matt Palmer could also be distant 6th and 7th starter options.
~ Nats GM, Jim Bowden, has never been confused with a top talent GM, but I think he makes the occasional good move. I love his acquisition of Jesus Flores. Flores, who was a Rule 5 Draft acquisition from the Mets, is a 23-year-old catcher with offensive upside and if I’m not mistaken, a solid defensive reputation. He broke out in his age 21 season in the FSL, the Mets left him unprotected, and the rest is history. He’s still raw at the plate, but he’s got some nice power that you don’t always find at the catchers position. He’s currently hitting (.286/.340/.464) in ’08 and has shown glimpses of the talent that the Mets are surely missing.
~ Please stop starting Omar, Bruce Bochy. Omar won’t boost his trade value by slapping a couple of singles before the trading deadline and his supposed reduced role on the team has never materialized. Quotes like this are the ones that scare me the most:
Already, Bochy is rethinking his plan to rest Vizquel and an equally hot Bengie Molina today. Finally, Vizquel said after his first three-hit game since May 15, he is starting to feel it with the stick.
I don’t get the logic. Omar stinks it up for most of the season but he goes 6 for 17 over a few games and all the sudden he’s back? Really, Bruce? Really? I seriously doubt that Omar will be traded at the deadline and if he’s still starting after the deadline, so-help-me-god…
~ Former Giants reliever, Steve Kline, has announced his retirement. Kline was trying to hang on in the Phillies organization, pitching for their AAA team that’s aptly named the Iron Pigs, but was released a month ago.
Comment Starter: Worried about Kevin? If not, why? And if so, who would you replace him with?
I’ll start this one off, put me down as “slightly worried”.
I was never huge on Correia as the 5th stater, even with his fantastic finish to ’07, but he probably deserves a few more shots. I do worry that he’s still dealing with the oblique. Misch has been bumpy in Fresno, but I’m still a fan of him for the 5th starter spot. He was mainly unlucky with the HR in the majors.
For discussion sake, if Correia is bumped, here’s my list of preferable guys to start in his place.
1. Steve Hammond – Call him the new toy, but I’d like to see what he could do. Might be able to cut it in the majors in a 5th starter role.
2. Pat Misch – Probably very similar to Hammond, lefties that need to “hit their spots” to succeed. I like his pitchability and stuff.
3. Matt Palmer – Decent season in Fresno but a organizational soldier. I did his MLE’s and it translated to a 4.50 ERA, which is respectable for your 5th starter.
4. Victor Santos – Purely a “everyone else is injured” starting option. No upside here.
Notice that Brad Hennessey didn’t make my list.
Correia: I’m with you 100%. Also not a big Correia guy, but give him another start or 2 (or 3) to see if he can work it out. Whadda we got to lose?
-37 outs>!>>!?? And last in OOZ?? And that’s WITH Omar Vizquel getting the bulk of the playing time at short! So plug in Burriss or whomever and that number gets even worse. Holy crap!
I’m totally torn about Omar. He was due to have some regression back up to way below average from abysmal/historically bad, so I can see why Bochy would give him a few more starts. And I still get a thrill from watching him pick it clean out there. OTOH, we need to evaluate the kids, so… like I said, I’m torn. Ack.
War series sweep of the Nats!!
There was a point near the beginning of the season, right before he got hurt, actually, where I was actually excited about Correia. I think it’s clear by this time he’s a fifth starter, if that. I was concerned about the 12 hits initially, but your analysis put that concern to rest, especially with “The Giants infield is bad at turning balls hit into play into outs.” (It should make me laugh, but it was funny!) I had also not considered the possibility that he’s still hurt…
That said, I wouldn’t mind seeing somewhat of a rotating cast of fifth starters. Not sure how palatable that really is–that is, if they do decide to bump Correia, how many guys can they sub in there before the season’s over and feel like they’ve got a legitimate look? I’d be interested to see any of the first three guys you mentioned in your list.
cj
http://www.lamourproject.com
I am moderately worried about Corriea. I too think he is not healed up. The whole stamina thing. He has not managed 100 pitches since July 2nd. Since he returned he has a pair of 103 pitch outings and one 99 pitch outing. Zito darn near throws more pitches in 2 games then Corriea has this month. Ok I am exaggerating a bit ( Corriea 221 pitches in July while Zito has 216 in his last 2 starts).
I am cool with the Misch/Hammond/Palmer beast if that what needs doing. It’s too bad now Zito and Corriea follow each other or I might lean towards dropping a position player and bringing Misch up and tell one of Corriea or Misch you get the 2-3 innings in between when those 2 Starters fold tell you get Corriea get his stamina back.
Ah crap a sandwich! I see I forget to add all 4 of Corriea’s Jul starts so that makes his monthly pitch count 369 in 4 starts. To Zito’s 216 in 2 starts. Still shows the issues but not as nicely. Just to underline things farther Cain has had only one start with under 90 pitches this season.
Actually, according to the link, the Giants as a team is -37, not just the infield. Not sure how to grab the infield breakout, perhaps that is also -37, which is possible, the infield vs. outfield breakout shows the OF being above average in RZR and OOZ, heck, based on that the infield is probably worse than -37.
Wow, both Rowand and Winn are near the top in RZR and Lewis is good. And they are good in OOZ too. Can’t find individual +/- though.
Most team’s #5 starters stinks but the Giants have stunk particularly badly this season. Given Correia nice end string of 2007 starts, I am giving Correia the benefit of the doubt for this season thus far, perhaps he was hurting before he was finally DLed, nobody knows how long he was struggling with that before succumbing. Frankly, it is not like the list of suspects are all that compelling to start them over Correia, for now, he has his 2007 starts to refer to as evidence that he can work it out, the question is will he.
About Omar, actually, Burriss hasn’t really shown enough to just be given the starting job, the only reason he was going to get more playing time was because the way Omar was hitting, we would have been better off batting a midget there instead and get a bunch of walks, heck, even a statue could have done close to what Omar did. However, if Omar can hit, he can easily post an OPS above what Burriss has done so far, Burriss isn’t even outhitting by much what Neifi was hitting before.
Plus, the Giants are hoping to trade off players. Omar is untradeable off the bench. That’s why Omar is still starting until August 1st. And in business, it will cost the other team more if you want to hold onto what you got than if you are eager to get rid of him. So if he’s showing a return to past goodness, you need to sell him a bit, say he’s getting more play going forward, to try to get more out of the other side when negotiating. Normal business behavior, though I have no idea if that is what Bochy was thinking when he said what he said. Still, net effect is you are telling other teams he’s valuable to us, so give us more if you want him. Else you end up with very little. And any savings we can get on his contract would help to sign our draft picks.
Whoops, read my link wrong, -37 as a team. Good point.
Yeah, the OF has been awesome, above average all year by most metrics, but the infield has been the opposite. Bill James Online has the Dewan +/- stuff for individual players, I should pony up the $3 a month to get that data.
I’ll touch on this point OGC
1. If you aren’t going to play Burriss semi-regularly then why is he even on the team? Has this year been the worst year ever for bonehead decisions of when to call up players? If you aren’t playing Burriss when Omar is batting .100, send him down. Send him anywhere to get playing time.
2. Burriss is no A-Rod but his line of .291/.349/.342 DESTROYS Omar’s line of .183/.249/.220
3. Furthermore, if you want to take the approach that Omar is a better defender than Burriss, I’m not sure I’m buying that. His range is obviously decreased. I don’t think he’s playing D well enough to make up for his horrendous batting.
4. You’re expecting Omar to eventually hit, I don’t think he will. Pitchers have challenged him all year long and will continue to challenge him.
That’s a straw man, what Neifi did, or didn’t’ do while he was here, has nothing to do with Burriss. Different times, different team composition, different everything. Burriss is a better option at short right now for the Giants. Both in the terms of perfomance and the future. I’ll bold that word, future, because it’s important.
I’ll disagree that Omar has value, I don’t see it. And I think that no amount of playing him before the deadline will help his value.
If Omar gets traded, I’ll eat my hat. He’s worth less than nothing. I think a team’s Expected Wins might actually be better w/ no one at short than with Omar there.
This is a bit of nitpicking, but I figure you’d appreciate the info:
From Neyer’s Transaction Primer:
PS – I’m retarded. What’s wrong with my html tag?
Nevermind. I did it correctly. Though, when I “previewed” the post, it didn’t remove the blockquote tag. So, I don’t know, maybe that’s something to look into.
@Mr. Lomez,
Haha, thanks, I do appreciate that. I’ve seen it both ways but I’d like to be correct when I use it.
The XHTML tags are a little funky. I’ll see if I can get the preview to jive better with them
Tonight was ugly. 10-2 loss! Besides Jonathan Sanchez’s meltdown in 2 2/3 innings this proves that the Giants need a long relief pitcher. Every great pitcher implodes at some point. They have to have confidence that the pen can pick them up on days they do not have there best stuff. This has been an issue for the Giants primarily due to the pen being over taxed. To compound the problem the developing position players have lacked consistency with the bat. These concerns make the margin of error so narrow, that almost any fourth or fifthth pitcher is likely to struggle. Wether the fifth starter is Correia or Misch the pen needs more that just one inning, young guns, Lefty vs righty (etc.) match-ups kind of guys. To asaossbate the problem, several of the starting rotation fail to get deep into games. Were would we be without Lincecum?
Look at last nights game…Cain won a 1-0 game. The first complete game since (I believe) Noah Lowry in 2006. Giants used five of our twelve pitchers, tonight, just to get through the game. Take out the other starting four (Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Kevin Correia) Giants used all but three pitcher.
Please do not get me wrong, I like the fact the Giants are bringing up young talent to see how they perform at the next level, but but the pen needs some relief.