Farm Review: Connecticut Defenders
Posted by Chris - 19/06/08 at 09:06 amGetting back to our review of the Giants minor league farm system, we find ourselves in the cool and crisp air of Connecticut. The Eastern League and Dodd Stadium — the home of the Defenders — has long had a well earned reputation of being a tough place to hit. The cold air, windy conditions, and field dimensions are often cited as reasons for the toughness.
The details of the strenuous relationship between the Giants and Connecticut are well known. Squabbles over the stadium and who should foot the bill for renovations, low fan attendance, and cool weather conditions are just a few of the problems. The contract between the Giants and Connecticut runs out after this season and the death rattle between the two may have already been heard. Prospects like Pablo Sandoval are expected to be skipped past AA and into the more friendlier environment of AAA Fresno.
Because of the pitching inclined environment and lack of Giants hitters past the lower levels, we’ll mostly find pitching prospects at this level but also a couple of surprising hitters making one last run at prospect status.
1B Travis Ishikawa - If one prospect has turned himself around this year at AA, it’s Travis Ishikawa. The 24-year-old first baseman was drafted in 2002 and had a breakout season as a 21-year-old in the California League in ‘05. That year Ishikawa hit (.282/.387/.532) with 22 HR’s. In ‘06 he was promoted to AA and that’s where Ishikawa began to have problems. He failed to hit in AA, like many other hitters, and ended the year with a line of (.232/.309/.403). ‘07 wasn’t much better for Travis, he went back to AA and did so poorly that the Giants moved him back to the California League as a 23-year-old. That’s never a good sign and even more troubling was Ishikawa’s performance in the Cal League. He hit for a ton of power — blasting 13 HR’s in a little under 200 AB’s — but he was striking out like Rob Deer. Ishikawa was striking out 35.1% while repeating a level against younger competition. Red flags went up everywhere. He had always stuck out — generally around the 25% per PA mark — but never like this before.
The Giants sent Ishikawa back to AA this year and he’s made some noticeable changes. Firstly, he cut his K% down to 16.1%, signaling to me that he’s potentially changed his swing in order to make more contact. Ishikawa’s swing has always considered to be a little long. He also raised his BB% to an excellent 13.6%. He does have noticeable splits but it’s encouraging that he’s hitting even just slightly at Dodd Stadium. Overall his line currently sits at (.291/.380/.467). Because of his struggles against LHP he will most likely max out as a platoon partner at 1B. But, after where he was heading a couple of years ago, he’s made some nice adjustments to his game. Let’s hope that they carry throughout this season and that the Giants move him to AAA before the year is done.
C Adam Witter - I admit, I’m a fan of Adam Witter. He’s got some warts: age, defense, contact issues. But, he’s a catcher that can hit for some power and can take a walk. Because he was a 5th year senior that signed with the Giants, he didn’t get into the minor leagues until he was 23. In his age 23 season he crushed the younger competition of Northwest League. In the NWL he hit (.280/.362/.575) with 16 HR’s. In ‘07 he moved up a level to the San Jose Giants and hit (.260/.342/.481). His K% raised from 17.5% in the NWL to 22.5% in the California League. He’s struggled this year in AA, hitting (.216/.348/.414) but if you squint hard enough, his away line isn’t too bad (.239/.373/.420) he won’t be a starter in the big leagues because of his defense but he could profile as a offense first backup catcher that can pop the occasional home run and take a walk. That has some value.
RHP Adam Cowart - I’ve let my love for Cowart be known on this site. I really do love the guy. Cowart was drafted in the ‘06 draft in the far reaches of the 35th round out of Kansas State University. Why do I love Cowart so much? He doesn’t blow away hitters with a 97mph fastball and some still wonder if he’ll ever make it to the major leagues but Cowart succeeds by pitching in an unorthodox motion, a sort of slinging, sidearm, diving motion, that’s given hitters fits ever since he entered the minor leagues. He works in the low-80’s and features a changeup and a slider that aren’t remarkable. He gets by on having amazing command — he’s never had a BB% higher than 4.7 — and by getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground. In 326 career minor league innings, he’s allowed just 6 home runs. Even though he’s still starting in the Giants system, he profiles as Chad Bradford-lite. A reliever that will come in, throw strikes, get ground balls, and give RHB’s loads of trouble.
RHP Joe Martinez - Another fringy starter in the Giants system — do we have a ton of these guys or what — that’s had success. Throws in the upper-80’s with the ability to touch 90-91mph now and then. Features a curveball that’s his “strike out pitch” according to Baseball America. For a guy with fringy stuff, he’s been getting enough strikeouts at the lower levels of S-K, Augusta, and San Jose. He’s a strike-thrower, posting solid BB%’s at each level he’s pitched. His K% has taken a dip this year — making me wonder if most of his K’s were coming off hitters chasing his curve at lower levels — but he’s boosted his GB%. At the moment, 60% of balls hit into play off of Martinez have been on the ground, that’s a great rate. The Giants have moved Martinez slowly, taking him through one level at a time and they’ll most likely let him finish the year in AA. His FIP is currently 2.96 and if he finishes the year strong, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be moved up a level to AAA. He’ll most likely profile as a reliever or a 5/6th starter at the major league level. Martinez provides nice organizational depth.
RHP Kelvin Pichardo - Another relieving prospect in the Giants system. Amazingly, he was acquired in the Michael Tucker to the Phillies trade. Pichardo has a big arm that he uses to run fastballs into the mid-90’s and a curveball that can be a plus pitch for him at times. He blew through the lower levels of S-K, Augusta, and San Jose before making it to AA Connecticut in the second half of the ‘07 season. He struggled with control, walking 16 hitters in 21 innings and the Giants left him at AA to start this year. He’s still had some control problems this year — BB% of 12% — and his K% has dropped to 18.8% when it was at a ridiculous 36% in San Jose. But, Pichardo is only 22-years-old and his arm has a lot of promise. Anyone that can throw in the mid-90’s has a good chance of making it to the majors. I think his upside would be late inning relief, maybe in the setup role.
RHP Sergio Romo - Romo dazzles opposing hitters with a variety of pitches coming out of a variety of arm slots and angles. On a pure “stuff” level, Romo’s “stuff” isn’t off the charts, it’s rather pedestrian. He works in the upper 80’s and his curveball is an average pitch but similar to Cowart, he has amazing control that allows him to spot his pitches wherever he wants them. Toss in some deception from his pitching motion — he sort of slings the ball in a low arm slot — and you’ve got Sergio Romo. He doesn’t walk hitters — BB% of 5.1 — and despite not having a huge velocity, has never had trouble striking out hitters — K% of 29.3 in AA this year. His ‘07 line from San Jose is just ridiculous: 65.2 IP, 33 H, 9 ER, 15 BB, 104 SO. He briefly had some struggles in AA when he came off of a injury — I believe it was a knee problem — but since giving up 3 earned runs on May 31st, he’s made 5 straight strong appearances. Over those 5 appearances his line looks like this: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 SO. That’s a positively small sample but I’d like to think he’s adjusted from his injury and is back to pitching well again.
The AA level doesn’t have the same talent or upside that the lower levels have, but it does have some players that could profile as the next members of the Giants bullpen array. Cowart, Romo, and Pichardo could all be relievers in the Giants bullpen at some point down the line. I think of the trio, Romo might have the most upside in the bullpen and I’d love to see him make it as a late inning reliever. Martinez might be more suited to a long relief role or be an occasional spot starter.
On the hitting side, Ishikawa and Witter aren’t perfect prospects but they do have some positives going for them. Ishikawa’s season this year in Connecticut has saved his status as a prospect. He might not project as a starting first baseman any more, but he could end up as a platoonmate for someone who can mash lefties. Or, he might not ever make it to the majors but even as a skeptic of Ishikawa’s, I’ve been happy with the adjustments he’s made.
Next, we’ll head to AAA Fresno (aka Scott McClain Country) and check out the last level of our Farm Review.
June 19th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Nice rundown.
About Ishikawa, how old are your stats? Fangraphs have him at 19.8% K%, so I wanted to reconcile between your # and their number, see if it is a matter of timing or methodology. 16.1% would be great for him, but 19.8% not so much.
Also, I had his walk rate to be that high previously too, so I guess I need to know what your source is to see where I’m off.
I would also add that power in Dodd Stadium is well documented to be decreased 40%+ relative to other ballparks in the Eastern League by SLG, ISO, HR-rate. So any speculation on weather and other conditions are well and good, but the fact is that hitters there, both our team and opposing teams (as viewed in the mirror that is our pitcher’s stats) suffer when they hit there, and suffer greatly, in terms of power. The disparity is even worse - in the opposite direction - than that for the Rockies stadium pre-humidor.
Lastly, the reason Ishikawa had problems in 2006 was because of Dodd. Here are his lines from SJ the year before, the 2006’s home and road numbers:
2004 .256/.357/.448/.805, 24 AB/HR
2005 .282/.387/.531/.918, 20 AB/HR
2006:
Road .244/.332/.470/.801, 23 AB/HR
Home .212/.289/.314/.603, 46 AB/HR
Clearly, he hit as well as he did previously at lower levels on the road, but his home numbers totally skewed the view of his true talent level, much like how it masked Bowker’s over 1.000 OPS on the road last year vs. mid-700’s OPS at home while in AA last season.
Also, here are some old stats on his peripherals:
His road stats in 2006 were very much in line with what he was doing before in the minors, hence emphasizing my point that he didn’t regress or do worse in AA, he, along with every other hitter with 5 or more homeruns, suffered from hitting at that hell-hole of a park, Dodd Stadium.
So, it is good that he is finally figuring out how to not strikeout, but he should have been doing it at AAA the past two seasons, and thus be ready to come up if needed this year, instead of still in AA.
In addition, we don’t know that he wouldn’t have figured this out last year in AAA rather than taking over a year to figure it out at lower levels, because when facing lessor talents, he doesn’t see as much quality pitches and could get away with whatever hitch in his swing that made him strike out so much previously instead of working on it. He could have figured this out last year and took over 1B late in the season instead of being sent back to San Jose.
June 19th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
OGC,
I cleaned up the second part of your Ishikawa numbers for you to make them easier to read, I hope you don’t mind.
I’m using FirstInning.com for my Ishikawa numbers. You can find them here.
I noticed that FanGraphs has slightly different percentages for some of his stats. It looks like FirstInning might be slightly more up-to-date, as it has Ishikawa as having 234 AB’s and FanGraphs has him at 227 AB’s. The methodology should be the same for computing K% or BB%, it’s just number of walks divided by the total number of PA’s.
>> In addition, we don’t know that he wouldn’t have figured this out last year in AAA rather than taking over a year to figure it out at lower levels, because when facing lessor talents, he doesn’t see as much quality pitches and could get away with whatever hitch in his swing that made him strike out so much previously instead of working on it.
In the long run, it might have been better that he toughed it out at AA because I’ve always considered AA to be tougher than AAA in some regards. It definitely has more “prospects” while AAA seems to be the land of washed up AAAA-players hanging on to baseball.
I can’t think of any legit prospects that are currently toiling away at AAA for reasons other than a team not doing a good job with roster management.
Is there a huge, noticeable difference in talent levels between AA/AAA? I’m inclined to say no but I haven’t seen any numbers or studies on the issue. The biggest jump in talent is from A-ball to AA-ball.
June 19th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Can we have Romo instead of Zito please? kthxbye
June 19th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
>> Can we have Romo instead of Zito please? kthxbye
Yes, plz.
June 21st, 2008 at 1:49 am
Is that Joe Martinez from Boston College?
June 21st, 2008 at 5:50 pm
Yup, thats the one.
June 24th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
[...] with poor depth in the bullpen to pick him up. As for Sergio Romo, I’ve written about him as recently as last week. I’m a fan of him and I’ll be excited to see him pitch on TV. He’s doesn’t [...]
August 13th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
[...] for Ishikawa, I wrote about him last when he was in AA Connecticut: The Giants sent Ishikawa back to AA this year and he’s made [...]