A Typical Loss
Posted by Chris - 04/06/08 at 08:06 amThe Giants got walloped last night by a struggling Mets team looking for some stability and by the return of one of the greatest pitchers* to ever toe the bump.
*Pedro Martinez tangent: Pedro has always been of my favorite pitchers and I was impressed by watching him pitch last night. He might not be the Pedro of old, but it’s clear that he still has enough stuff and smarts to get major league hitters out. His fastball was around 90mph and he featured good location on most of his pitches. He didn’t look like a pitcher that had missed most of this season. Pedro’s run from 97-03 is still one of the most spectacular stretches of dominant pitching in baseball. If you haven’t looked at those numbers in awhile, go, check it out. You’ll be surprised.
Anyways, I’m calling this loss a typical one because it featured, in one game, most of the problems that the Giants have had this year.
~ Zito continues to walk hitters and display poor command and control of his pitches. He walked 5 last night in a loss that saw him drop to 1-9. Zito’s BB% after this start is 12.4%, a career high for him. He only struck out one hitter. He looked decent in the early going, but like most Zito starts, he started to fall apart the 2nd time through the lineup in the 4th and 5th innings. The curve looked OK but his fastball command was spotty and his changeup command was poor. In the 5th inning he hung, yes hung, a 74mph changeup at the letters of Carlos Beltran who ripped it down the line for a double and 2 RBI’s. Every time Zito throws his changeup, it seems to float up and away and into the happy zone of hitters.
On the TV side last night Kruk kept saying that “[Mets Player] is a highball hitter” when the Mets made good contact on Zito up in the zone. But I’ve got some news for you Mike, every hitter in the major leagues will be a good hitter on a 74mph change up in the zone. It’s the equivalent of dropping a live cow into a piranha tank. Ugly. One of Zito’s biggest problems last year was location and he’s still having those problems.
~ The infield defense was also poor last night, giving the Mets a helping hand in their 8-run 5th inning. The culprits were the usually steady Omar Vizqeul and not-so-steady stoned gloved Ray Durham. With runners at the corners in the 5th inning, Omar fielded a grounder somewhat deep at shortstop. Durham wasn’t going to be able to get to the bag before Mets runner for the forceout and Omar decided that he would try for a footrace to the bag for the out. He didn’t get to the bag in time and his throw to first base was late, both runners safe. It’s a tough play but for a defensive master like Omar, you figure he would have taken the sure out at first.
Durham’s mistake was less forgivable. He simply didn’t catch a ball hit right to him. The bases were loaded and the infield was playing in, Jose Reyes was hitting and hit the ball right at Durham, the ball clanked off Durham’s glove and rolled away for another run. Durham would have had a shot at turning a double play but instead the Giants didn’t get any outs.
The Giants defense is very Jekyll and Hyde-ish. The outfield defense ranks as the best in the National League right now. By RZR, Lewis is rated as the 3rd best LF defender, Rowand is rated as the 2nd best CF defender, and Rany Winn is rated as the best RF defender. That’s a ton of good outfield defense. You’ve got three guys with some ability to play CF spread over three OF spots.
The infield defense, not-so-good. It ranks as the worst in the National League by RZR. Jose Castillo and Ray Durham are a large part of that poor ranking. Bocock was a very good defender at SS in the bigs but he couldn’t hit. The jury is still out on Omar’s defense because he’s barely played any innings, but he looks decent, if not a little diminished in range. Bowker is still learning first base and Aurilia is what he is, semi-decent glove without much range.
Still, the Giants inability to play quality defense on the infield hurt them last night. It probably won’t be the last time, either.
Travis Denker did hit his first career HR with a 3-run shot in the 9th inning that he crushed to left-center. Mark Sweeney has a -1 OPS+, I think we won that trade. Denker is no glove man but he might see some time at 2B to spell Durham occasionally. I’d like to see Denker get some more AB’s, he’s had all of 12 since he got the call, mostly in pinch hitting duties. If Durham isn’t traded by the trading deadline, I would be tempted to just cut him and let Denker or anyone else play 2B for the remainder of the year.
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Update: I forgot to mention that lefty reliever Erik Threets was designated for assignment on Monday. The Giants will have 10 days to either trade him, waive him, or send him back to the minors if he clears waivers. Threets, he of the 95+mph fastball, has struggled with his control throughout his career. Since 2005, here are his BB%’s in the minor leagues: (AA) 15.6, (AAA) 15.5, and (AAA) 14.7. A team that likes his arm might take a chance on him, but he could also clear waivers and head back into the minor leagues.
June 4th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Your outfield defense will always be good when you have three center fielders starting. Rowand is aging but was once one of the best two or three CF in the game, Winn has always been solid if unspectacular in center and Lewis brings enough raw speed that on balance he’s above-average there despite his occasional bad route. None of the three hits enough to be exceptional in a corner, especially LF, but each is an average-or-better major-league hitter, and with good defense that’s the makings of a good team.
The infield, unfortunately, features a collection of below-average defenders who are below-average hitters. And that’s a recipe for 100 losses.
June 4th, 2008 at 10:17 am
Yeah, I still find it humorous that they tried to sell the team as a “Speed and defense” team when the infield defense is so atrocious.
The overall team defense is good, but it’s mostly held up by the insane OF defense that we’ve been getting.
And your totally right on Lewis, he takes really funky routes but his speed is usually enough to overcome his sometimes odd footwork. I’ve been happy with his D.
June 4th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
The problem with bad starts is that it can bury a player’s subsequent performance under that pile of dung. So I was wondering if you could recast your stats based on his starts since his break from the rotation, then give your opinion on that, that would be more interesting to me.
Or better, compare his pre-stats with his post-stats, as well as above. So we can see how far he has come, and how much more he has to go.
Still, I don’t see why the media makes such a big deal about one start after a number of good starts. Even the best pitchers have a bad day every once in a while, and good pitchers regularly have a bad start after a series of good starts. Maybe if Zito does this again in his next start, then I would ask if things are two steps forward, one step back, but as far as one game goes, shrug it off to it being just one of those days and move on to the next.
June 4th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
My problem with Zito was even during his string of acceptable starts, he was still walking a ton of guys, indicating to me, that his control is still bad. He boosted his K-rate some over that span, but his walks are my chief concern.
His lack of control means he can’t put his pitches where he needs them to be (especially the changeup and fastball) and when you’re throwing the mid-80’s, location is everything.
If you exclude his first 6 starts of this season because they were lousy, you get this.
32.2 IP, 36 H, 17 R, 16 ER, 21 BB, 20 SO, 4.41 ERA
21 walks in 32.2 innings pitched is a sign of trouble on the horizon.