Bay City Ball

I saw maybe my 4th game last night at the Coliseum. Not to be a ballpark snob, but it really makes you appreciate the greatness of Mays Field when you go to other parks. Each park is unique and interesting but the Coliseum doesn’t have much going for it. Between wire fences and massive amounts of concrete, the park looks old and grey with dashes of Athletic Green. I hope the A’s finally get the new park they’ve been after.

I met some nice people in my section, most noted was George, an older gentleman who looked like a retired Veteran. He had on a faded army jacket and a ballcap that read ‘USS Kitty Hawk’ across the front. He told me that he’d been a Giants fan since he was this little, holding his hand out just a few feet above the ground, and that he once sold beer in the Coliseum in the ’70’s. It was great he told me, because he got to see a lot of baseball. I had to agree. Having a day job with baseball as the backdrop has to be fun. Escpecially in the ’70s when the A’s were a powerhouse team, winning three straight World Series between ‘72 and ‘74. We cheered for the Giants between pitches and he eventually left during the 5th inning.

Even though both the A’s and Giants have strong roots in the Bay, I was a little surprised by how much Giant Orange I saw at the park. My section had a large portion of orange among the green and gold. The game was a blow out, the Giants scored 11 runs and Jonathan Sanchez pitched 7 strong innings of 1-run ball. Usually my personal record when seeing the Giants play isn’t so hot, this game was a welcome change.

Some thoughts from the game

~ Sanchez looked good, despite a HR to Jack Cust — who tends to do that sort of thing — he pitched smoothly and effectively. Is Sanchez the 2nd best pitcher on the Giants right now? I think you can make that case. He might not have the ultimate upside of Matt Cain but it’s hard to argue against what he’s been doing this year. Gold star for Mr. Sanchez.

~ The offense was in top form, spraying doubles and hitting the ball all over the park. Vintage 2001 Rich Aurilia showed up to the game and knocked in 5 runs. Does he have any trade value? John Bowker, who might have my favorite hack on the team, went 3-4 including a double and 2 RBI’s. Durham looked good but had to leave the game early after what the Chronicle was calling a “leg contusion”. He hit 2 doubles and you could tell he wasn’t running well. Each time he stopped at second, he did so very slowly and carefully. When Fred Lewis runs he glides. Durham looks like he’s tippy toeing everywhere when he runs.

~ When will Bochy start sitting Omar? He went 0-4 in the game and hasn’t looked good at the plate in a month now. His OPS in June is .304. Three hundred and four. This year, in 122 AB’s, his slash-stats look like (.156/.234/.180). I understand why he was starting in all three Cleveland games, it was his homecoming, but it’s time to let Burriss get at least 3-4 starts a week at short. Burriss got some playing time in yesterdays game when Durham had to leave, so he might start playing 2B for now, but he should have been starting in the first place. I like Omar as much as the next guy, and he was a damn good Giant in his first two years, but it’s time for him to sit.

~ I got see Sergio Romo pitch. I’m a Romo fan and I’m hoping he does well at the major league level. I could see him taking the 8th inning eventually if Walker starts to slip again, which he most likely will. Romo might not have the best stuff but he can pitch.

~ Around the 8th inning the A’s fans started doing the wave. I tried to explain to my fiancee that the wave was pretty much dead but she disagreed “Look, everyone is doing it” she said. I tried to explain to her that it was the same thing as playing the Macerena really loudly in your car when driving down the street. It’s extremely tacky and no one does it anymore. Leave it to you Oakland fans to prove me wrong. I was amazed because I’ve never seen a wave get started at a baseball game before and I’ve been to probably a hundred or more games in my lifetime. This was an actual wave going. The A’s fans had it going all the way around the stadium. -1 for A’s fans. I’ve heard the wave originated in Oakland but do fans really still do it like this? Or did I step into the Twilight Zone?

Tonight we’ll head to Mays Field and watch the Giants take on the Cubs. I wonder how many Cubs fans will show up? They seem to be everywhere. Oh, and Barry Zito is pitching.

My lack of updates recently come with a good reason: I’m on vacation! And better yet, I’m in the Bay Area for my yearly trip out to catch some Giants games with my family. I flew in to San Francisco last night after a long and somewhat tiring trip across the county. I’ll be in Oakland until Monday — catching the A’s and G’s game today — and then we’ll head into SF to catch some Giants games at home.

New Rule: Anyone under 25 and over 55 aren’t allowed on airplanes anymore. This would make traveling much easier as it would eliminate both the screaming baby sitting two rows behind me and the deluge of parents traveling with small children. Trust me, I don’t hate small children or babies, but nothing makes you want to take a fellow humans’ life faster than being cramped on an airplane for hours on end.

Anyways, being an East Coaster, it’s fun to get out to this side of the country and watch Giants baseball. Usually I’m restricted to Pittsburgh or Washington if I want my Giants fix, but there’s nothing like seeing a home game among the orange and black faithful. The park, the Bay, the food, all great things.

I’ll be doing some updates this week but probably with a more slower, lazy pace. Maybe some first-hand-at-the-game type stuff.

Barry Zito did something strange Wednesday night against the Cleveland Indians. He pitched well. He didn’t walk a hitter over 6.2 innings. He had his longest start of the year. And he won a baseball game.

His final line of the night was: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 SO

All good things. Zito appeared to be throwing a tick harder than usual, he touched 87mph in the 6th inning and for him, that’s like dialing it all the way up to 97. The result of a lower arm slot? Maybe, who knows, I’m not a mechanics expert. This was also his first start of the year where he did not issue a walk. Zito’s control has been a major issue for him this year. The start last night lowered his BB% to a still scary 12.6% but it’s no longer in the 13’s like it was.

Ultimately, though while encouraged by Zito’s start, I think it raises just as many questions with me.

Questions such as:

His velocity, was it really the result of different mechanics or something else? Is it sustainable? Or will it come and go?

How much did facing Cleveland, a team that’s struggled offensively all year, help Zito? Any night you can get out major league hitters is a good night but there’s a big difference between the Indians (EqA of .250) and Barry Zito’s next opponent, the Cubs (EqA of .276). The Cubs have the 2nd best offense in the game right now, only behind Texas.

Did his new arm slot help his control? Zito was walked as many as 6 hitters in a game this year and his control is at a career worst.

I think the best thing we can do is to not get overly excited and believe that “Zito has figured it out” because it’s just one game and anything can happen in one game, but we can take the positives as small gains and hope that the next start we’ll see the same positives again. This was definitely the best game that Zito has thrown this year. I decided to plot his WPA Scores after this game and here are my results.

If you’re unfamiliar with Win Probability Added, or WPA,  it’s a basic way to figure out how much a player contributed to a win. WPA is more descriptive than predictive, so we can’t assume because Zito did well in this start that he’ll do well in the next start, but it’s a fun stat to use when looking at past games. Here’s a pretty good description of why you should care about WPA from Fangraphs, one of the best sites out there.

WPA takes into account the importance of each situation in the game. A walk off home run is going to be weighted more then a home run in a game that has already gotten out of hand. This makes it a great tool for determining how valuable a player was to his team’s win total.

Because WPA is based on the context of the situation in which a play occurs, the scores can get tilted a little bit for players that constantly appear in high leveraged situations (such as a closer that’s always used in close high leverage games) but overall, it’s a pretty handy and fun stat to look at. A WPA of zero means that the player was purely “average” in contributing towards a win, he neither helped or hurt his team.

On my plot, negative WPA score’s are indicated by the white bars and positive WPA scores are indicated by the orange bars. Also, the number above each bar indicates the game. So, Zito’s last game against Cleveland, and his best start of the year by WPA, was his 16th start.

Here’s the data that went into the plot.

GS   Date	Team	Opp	       WPA
1    31-Mar	Giants	@Dodgers      -0.216
2    06-Apr	Giants	@Brewers      -0.187
3    11-Apr	Giants	Cardinals     -0.214
4    16-Apr	Giants	Diamondbacks  -0.169
5    22-Apr	Giants	@Diamondbacks -0.371
6    27-Apr	Giants	Reds          -0.429
7    07-May	Giants	@Pirates       0.003
8    12-May	Giants	Astros        -0.022
9    17-May	Giants	White Sox      0.017
10   23-May	Giants	@Marlins       0.108
11   29-May	Giants	@Diamondbacks -0.079
12   03-Jun	Giants	Mets          -0.236
13   08-Jun	Giants	@Nationals    -0.042
14   13-Jun	Giants	Athletics     -0.191
15   18-Jun	Giants	Tigers        -0.322
16   25-Jun	Giants	@Indians       0.355

As you can see by the plot, Zito’s first 6 starts of the year were disastrous. The worst being the 6th against the Reds in which Zito’s WPA hit a season low of -42.9%. In that game, he pitched 3 innings and gave up 8 runs. Zito then went to the “bullpen” and came back against Pittsburgh to eek out a positive WPA. That’s his 7th start that barely charted on the plot because the number was so small. Zito then pitched his 8th start against the Astros and eeked out another negative score of -2.2%.

As you can see, after Zito came back from his bullpen exodus he wasn’t really a better pitcher, just not as terrible as he was earlier in the season. He bordered more on average than anything else. His 7th ,8th , and 9th starts all hovered right around 0 WPA. Zito finally got his first win against the Marlins on May 23rd, and until that point, it was his highest WPA scored of +10.8%. That’s until his game last night when Zito scored a +35.5% by WPA, his highest score of the season by far.

Like I said above, I’m not sure if Zito has necessarily turned a corner, but you can’t help but root for the guy despite his large contract. He seems genuinely nice and it was nice to hear him talk about getting a win on the post-game last night rather than explaining why he melted down. Again, I think it’s important that we don’t put too much into his start last night other than appreciate it for what it was, his best game of the year.

He’ll get a real test in his next start against the Cubbies.

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Edit: I decided to add plots for WPA scores for Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez, just as a comparison point.

I included Lincecum’s funky 4 inning relief appearance in his plot.

Q: Did we just witness the ultimate GAMER game last night?

A: I think we did.

We all knew that the Giants GAMER campaign was silly. No matter how hard you try or how idealistic it might seem in an American Dream-type sense, you can’t substitute hard work for talent. But, maybe in one night, maybe just for one time, the Giants played true to their advertising campaign.

These ballplayers, no, these men, played like GAMERS last night. They scrapped, scraped, bunted, squeezed, hit-and-ran, played all out, hustled, got dirty, played the game right, and gamed themselves straight into the victory column.

You might ask what exactly the Giants did that was so gamertastic last night. I’ve compiled a small list of some of the ultimate GAMER moments from last nights game.

1. In the top of the 2nd inning Aaron Rowand got hit by a pitch. That’s right, GAMERS love to get HBP’d because it’s about the toughest, most brutal way that you can get on base. Rub some dirt on it, meat.

2. Maybe the most surprising GAMER of the night was Jose Castillo. He did several things that all good GAMERS do. First, he crashed into the fence near the Indians dugout in the 2nd inning to catch a foul ball. GAMERS crash into stuff, that’s just science. Then, in the 6th, Castillo started a double play by making a great diving catch to his left on a Johnny Peralta groundball. The result was not only a double play, but a dirtier jersey. GAMER. And if that’s not enough to satisfy your GAMER taste buds, Castillo knocked in the first run of the game by hitting an opposite field single. He was off the GAMER charts.

3. In the 8th inning the Giants scored on a throwing error by the Indians catcher. That’s pretty darned GAMER right there. With Durham on 3rd, Winn attempted to steal 2nd base. The throw skipped in the dirt and 2B Jamey Carroll — who looks like an insect — couldn’t reel in the bad throw with his feelers. When the ball got away from Carroll, Durham ran home to score. Making it a 2-1 game. If you didn’t know, that’s called “playing the game the right way”.

4. In maybe what was the climax of the GAMER night, Omar Vizquel executed a successful squeeze play to put the Giants up 3-1. Sure, Omar has the bat-speed of a 7-year-old boy these days, and he hasn’t hit a ball hard in a months, but when the game was on the line, he gutted it out by dropping a bunt. That’s extremely GAMER. When you can’t physically swing a bat anymore, you bunt a baseball 4 feet. It’s like Ozzie Guillen porn.

Seriously, the game was awesome. Sanchez punched out 8 hitters and looked good. Omar got a warm reception from the Cleveland fans — you stay classy — and he even made a couple of nice defensive plays, especially in the 9th. The Giants were white-hot, concentrated, GAMERS last night and it worked. Let’s all put on some eye black, rub some dirt on ourselves, and crash into inanimate objects. It’s what GAMERS do.

A little bullpen shuffle today. The Giants have designated Vinnie Chulk for assignment and called up Sergio Romo from Connecticut.

From SFGiants.com:

Chulk, 29, will spend 72 hours on waivers while the Giants try to trade him, which is unlikely to happen. He indicated that if he isn’t claimed, he would decline an outright assignment to Triple-A Fresno.

Because Chulk won’t accept a minor league assignment, this is the last we’ll see of him. Chulk, who was the other player coming from Toronto in the infamous Shea Hillenbrand trade, pitched well for the Giants in 2007 before his season came to a close because of circulation issues related to Buerger’s Disease. In ‘07 Chulk posted an ERA of 3.57 and a FIP of 3.33.

Chulk was mostly used in mop-up situations this year and struggled to get in a groove. He has an ERA of 4.83 and a FIP of 5.38 this year. Expect for another team with poor depth in the bullpen to pick him up. As for Sergio Romo, I’ve written about him as recently as last week. I’m a fan of him and I’ll be excited to see him pitch on TV. He doesn’t blow away hitters but has had pretty good success by deception and great command and control.

We’ve looked at Augusta (A) San Jose (A+) and Connecticut (AA) so far in our farm review. The earlier levels are filled with prospects who could one day reach the Giants and make an impact. Does Fresno have the same kind of prospects? Not so much. Most AAA teams these days are filled with journeymen and other players who are hoping to make it back to the big leagues. Failed prospects, flameouts, guys who got injured, etc. Teams rarely keep their legitimate prospects in AAA for any extended period of time. In ‘07 the average age of a player in the PCL was 27-years-old. If you checked the top 10 hitters in the PCL this year — when ranking by OPS — you would find names like Dallas McPherson, Val Pascucci, Nelson Cruz, and Terry Tiffee. All of these players are in their mid-to-late 20’s and aren’t really considered prospects anymore.

So, don’t expect to find prospects that will anchor your team for the next decade but you might find some pieces that can fill gaps. Let’s check out what the Giants have going on in Fresno.

RF Nate Schierholtz - Nate is one of the most dividing Giants prospects. We can call him a prospect because despite playing in AAA, he’s only 24-years-old. Nate tends to divide people because of his plate approach. He gets good plate coverage and has the ability to make contact all over the zone but his lack of discipline could be a problem. In ‘07 he walked just 17 times in 441 PA’s in Fresno. That’s a BB% of 4.5%, which is quite low. He grabbed 117 major league PA’s with the Giants in ‘07 and he only walked twice. That’s a BB% of 1.7% which is really, really low. For example, Bengie Molina has a career BB% of 4.1% and he never walks. He’s physically strong but during game time, his power seems to border on a tick above average. He’s never hit more than 16 HR’s at any level. You usually want more firepower from your RF. During his time in the majors in ‘07 he hit for high average (.304) but not much else. He was essentially a singles hitter with a double or triple occasionally sprinkled in.

On the other hand, Nate has raised his BB% to 6.3% — a career high — this year in AAA. He’ll never walk 50 times in a season but if he could be more selective at the plate his power might play better. Most scouting reports have Schierholtz as a solid defender in RF with a strong throwing arm. Schierholtz is also a good runner for his size and will surprise you with the occasional triple. He’s done a good job of reducing his strikeouts at each level that he’s played. I think the best case scenario for Nate is a Garret Anderson player type. A hitter that walks at most around 30 times a year but makes good contact, hits 30 doubles, and 15-20 HR’s all while playing a solid RF. Even though I’ve got some questions about Nate I’d love to see him play RF if Randy Winn is traded. The Giants need to find out what Nate can do at the MLB level and if they can move Randy Winn at the deadline, I think they’ll find out.

1B Scott McClain - Yeah, he’s old. But he hits laser-rocket-bombs! Even if you don’t like Scott McClain, you’ve got to admire him just a little bit. He’s a 13-year career (mostly) minorleaguer. Over those 13 years he’s hit (.270/.355/.478) with 270 home runs. He even played four seasons for the Seibu Lions in Japan. In ‘07 he hit (.267/.349/.517) in Fresno with 31 home runs. This year he’s hit (.286/.362/.487) with 12 home runs. Because he’s 36-years-old he has no room left to grow, but man, was I on the McClain bandwagon last year. After watching Aurilia and Klesko struggle to produce from the 1B position, I was ready for some McClain. He did get called up but barely played and only got 11 AB’s. I’d love to see McClain get 500 AB’s in the majors to see what he could do. He might kill some German terrorists and that’s always awesome.

IF/OF Eugenio Velez - It’s everyone’s favorite speedster with bad defense and mental lapses, Eugenio Velez! The only thing more painful than watching the 2008 Giants was watching Eugenio get picked off, drop pop-ups, and perform a variety of other bonehead plays that would make Tom Emanski spin in his grave. He’s very fast but he looked overmatched at the major league level during his brief trail run earlier this year. The Giants mercifully sent him back to AAA and he’s done well. Since his demotion, Velez has hit (.312/.363/.488) in 125 AB’s. The first thing that jumps out at me about Velez’s slash-stats is that he’s slugging .488 in the PCL. If you ever needed proof that hitting in AAA isn’t the same as hitting in the majors, that might be it. He’s already 26-years-old and we might not ever see Velez in the majors for an extended period again. I think he’ll get a callup when rosters expand but barring an injury, I’m not expecting him to get major playing time with the Giants anytime soon. Godspeed Eugenio, godspeed. Those 121 AB’s you got with the Giants were thrilling.

SS Brian Bocock - Our sacrificial lamb. Bocock was called to the majors this year after barely hitting in the California League in ‘07. He struggled to hit in the majors, which was expected, but it was really ugly. He hit just (.143/.258/.156) in 73 AB’s with the Giants. You rarely see a guys batting average almost as high as his slugging percentage. Instead of sending Bocock back to San Jose, or even Connecticut, the Giants sent him to AAA Fresno. He’s failed to hit in AAA as well, hitting just (.163/.254/.187) in a line that’s eerily similar to what he did in the majors. His glove is still top-notch but he’s hitting like a deadball shortstop and that’s not so good in the year twenty aught eight.

Maybe Bocock should dress like this?

LHP Eugene Espineli - Careful with that axe, Eugene. Espineli has the coolest name on the Fresno roster, hands down. I have no idea what Espineli throws but he’s been having a decent year in AAA and at 25-years-old, he’s not ancient. He’s also a lefty and these guys always seem to be able to get work somewhere. He was drafted in the 14th round of the 2004 draft out of the Texas Christian University. This year in AAA he’s posting a K% of 21.8%, a BB% of 3.5%, and a modest GB% of 56%. He’s been tough on LHB’s who are OPS’ing just .396 against him. He could profile as a LOOGY-type reliever but with Taschner and Hinshaw, both lefties, already with the Giants, Eugene might stay in AAA for awhile. Still, not a bad backup option for some left-handed relief.

LHP Patrick Misch - I still like Misch even if he hit some speed bumps in the majors. He was super unlucky, giving up 10 HR’s in just 47 innings pitched. That’s a HR/F percentage of 23%. League average tends to be between 10-12%. In fact, most of Misch’s underlying peripherals were OK. Struck out 6.5 per game and walked 2.88 per game. Those aren’t bad stats at all from your 5th rotation spot and still better than what Zito has been giving us. He’s thrown just 34.1 innings in AAA since he went back down to the minors and he’s gotten knocked around a little, but I still like his arm. Either in a 5th starter role or a reliever.

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Fresno isn’t stocked with talent but they do have some players that you might see on the Giants at some point in this year. Hopefully we’ll see Nate in the 2nd half of the season after Randy Winn is shipped off to the Braves from a prospect or two (oh-please-oh-please-oh-please). I doubt we’ll ever see McClain in a Giants uniform at the big league level. Possibly when rosters expand.

Velez and Bocock? Meh. I’m not really banking on either at this point. Velez is getting old and still really doesn’t have a position to play. Bocock has a position to play but he’s hitting terribly. If I had to choose between the two, I’ll take Bocock for now. He’s younger and might eventually figure out how to scrap by as a defensive specialist with a .250 batting average.

Our two lefties of Misch and Geno could get into the bullpen at some point in this season if we trade away any of the following: Taschner, Chulk, or Walker.

Comment Starter: Have a favorite Grizzly?

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I’m adding a new weekly section to this site that I’ll randomly add to posts called “The Worst Bochy Quote of the Week” in which I’ll post the most absurd Bruce Bochy Quote I can find. This weeks’ WBQOTW is:

“He’s got power. He’s an intriguing player,” Bochy said. “He runs fairly well. I think he has the tools to be an everyday player. Now, that’s up to him. I think he’s improved his work ethic since he’s been here. I think he sees this as a great opportunity.”

Could Castillo be a long-term solution at third base?

“He has shown how talented he could be if he plays every day,” Bochy said. “I’d like to see what he’s done at the end of the year.”

My god. Bruce Bochy thinks Jose Castillo is “intriguing”.

CNN
USA Today
MSNBC

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Carlin certainly needs no introduction from me or anyone else. He was iconic. He was a comedian that I think everyone knew about, even if they didn’t follow comedy (which always seemed weird to me). You’ll probably read a lot in the following days about how shocking or revolutionary he was, and maybe that’s true, but what I’ll always appreciate about Carlin was a willingness to think. A willingness to survey our surroundings and notice just how damn absurd they are.

Carlin always made a lot of sense to me and in times like these when the world doesn’t seem to make any sense, he’ll be missed a tremendous amount.

I got a chance to listen to the weekly Ralph and Tom interview with Brian Sabean on KNBR this morning. Some notes and reactions after listening.

~ The topic to start the interview was, of course, Barry Zito. Sabes basically backed up Zito saying that he’s trying hard and wants to get better. Ralph tried to draw a response out of Sabean on who’s idea it really was to sign Zito but the sneaky-sneaky Sabes would not divulge any information.

He did say a couple of things that I thought were interesting — or amusing — depending on your viewpoint. First, that the Giants reports on Zito before the signing were “extremely positive” which makes me wonder what kind of reports they were getting or what kind of tools — ERA, Wins, Gamerness? — they used to analyze Zito. Second, that at least one AL club was going to offer Zito more money — Seattle?.

Before my next point, I’ll add that interviews like these are filled with half-truths and carefully crafted wording. I take most of what’s said with a big ‘ole grain of salt and you should, too. It’s an interesting insight into Sabes’ cranium at a very basic level.

~ Sabes briefly touched on the T. Beckham signing and if it would influence Posey’s demands much. Sabes says no, because every player will sell themselves differently in the negotiation process. And that Posey had some positives going for him that could add to his dollar-value such as being the Collegiate Player of the Year and a top catcher, each would boost his value. He dismissed the $12M signing rumor that was floated around pre-draft and that “guys either want to sign and play, or they don’t”.

~ Some rumors have been going around recently that the Giants have a deal in place with Rafael Rodriguez from the D.R. for $2.5M. He’s been compared to Vladimir Guerro but you should take that with a big grain of salt as well. Sabes debunked the rumor saying that they haven’t inked Rodriguez but he thinks that they are “in the running”. Of course, he noted that International signings can’t happen until after July 1st. If the Giants have a pre-deadline deal in place with Rodriguez, Sabean couldn’t say. The “in the running comment” was a positive indication that the Giants are involved with Rodriguez.

~ Pablo Sandoval is “very playable at first base” and is still learning the catcher position. I was surprised to hear Sabean say he’ll be moving to AA shortly after hearing that the Giants could skip Pablo straight past AA Connecticut. Sabes also said that he thinks we’ll see Sandoval up at the MLB level before the end of the year. Maybe when rosters expand? Will Molina be shopped?

~ And finally that Burriss will see more playing time. Omar will have to understand that with the direction of the team and with Burriss holding his own so far, he’ll have to play less because of his struggles at the plate. He’s “swinging soft” according to Sabes. Brian did praise Omar as a great defender and a future HoF’er but that he’d have to understand that he might start playing less because of his bat troubles. That was nice to hear.

That was it for the Sabean interview, pretty standard stuff.

Other News and Notes

~ The Giants have signed 7th round draft pick LHP Aaron King. King signed for $110,000 and will report to the Arizona League in a week. King was a guy that I liked and I’m happy to see the Giants get him signed. He’s a lefty that can work in the low-90’s and was considered one of the best lefties in the Jr. College ranks.

~ 5th rounder Edwin Quirarte made his first pro appearance on Wednesday in a S-K Volcanoes game. He failed to record an out, walked 3 hitters and gave up 2 earned runs. Sounds like a Giants pitcher already!

~ Teams could have some interest in Randy Winn at the trading deadline. Henry Schulman has heard that some scouts believe that Winn will be a hot name around the trading deadline. The Braves are reportedly interested in Winn. Winn is hitting (.297/.360/.444) and is making $8M this year and $8.25M next. He does have a limited no-trade clause to 8 teams but he might waive it for a contender. A Winn trade would be great for the Giants because it could bring in a prospect and open a space for Nate Schierholtz all in one move.

~ Giants blog, OBnB, has a good interview with Brian Foley of The College Baseball Blog on the Giants’ 2008 First Year Players Draft. Lots of solid questions and responses in the interview. Head on over and check it out now if you haven’t already.

Getting back to our review of the Giants minor league farm system, we find ourselves in the cool and crisp air of Connecticut. The Eastern League and Dodd Stadium — the home of the Defenders — has long had a well earned reputation of being a tough place to hit. The cold air, windy conditions, and field dimensions are often cited as reasons for the toughness.

The details of the strenuous relationship between the Giants and Connecticut are well known. Squabbles over the stadium and who should foot the bill for renovations, low fan attendance, and cool weather conditions are just a few of the problems. The contract between the Giants and Connecticut runs out after this season and the death rattle between the two may have already been heard. Prospects like Pablo Sandoval are expected to be skipped past AA and into the more friendlier environment of AAA Fresno.

Because of the pitching inclined environment and lack of Giants hitters past the lower levels, we’ll mostly find pitching prospects at this level but also a couple of surprising hitters making one last run at prospect status.

1B Travis Ishikawa - If one prospect has turned himself around this year at AA, it’s Travis Ishikawa. The 24-year-old first baseman was drafted in 2002 and had a breakout season as a 21-year-old in the California League in ‘05. That year Ishikawa hit (.282/.387/.532) with 22 HR’s. In ‘06 he was promoted to AA and that’s where Ishikawa began to have problems. He failed to hit in AA, like many other hitters, and ended the year with a line of (.232/.309/.403). ‘07 wasn’t much better for Travis, he went back to AA and did so poorly that the Giants moved him back to the California League as a 23-year-old. That’s never a good sign and even more troubling was Ishikawa’s performance in the Cal League. He hit for a ton of power — blasting 13 HR’s in a little under 200 AB’s — but he was striking out like Rob Deer. Ishikawa was striking out 35.1% while repeating a level against younger competition. Red flags went up everywhere. He had always stuck out — generally around the 25% per PA mark — but never like this before.

The Giants sent Ishikawa back to AA this year and he’s made some noticeable changes. Firstly, he cut his K% down to 16.1%, signaling to me that he’s potentially changed his swing in order to make more contact. Ishikawa’s swing has always considered to be a little long. He also raised his BB% to an excellent 13.6%. He does have noticeable splits but it’s encouraging that he’s hitting even just slightly at Dodd Stadium. Overall his line currently sits at (.291/.380/.467). Because of his struggles against LHP he will most likely max out as a platoon partner at 1B. But, after where he was heading a couple of years ago, he’s made some nice adjustments to his game. Let’s hope that they carry throughout this season and that the Giants move him to AAA before the year is done.

C Adam Witter - I admit, I’m a fan of Adam Witter. He’s got some warts: age, defense, contact issues. But, he’s a catcher that can hit for some power and can take a walk. Because he was a 5th year senior that signed with the Giants, he didn’t get into the minor leagues until he was 23. In his age 23 season he crushed the younger competition of Northwest League. In the NWL he hit (.280/.362/.575) with 16 HR’s. In ‘07 he moved up a level to the San Jose Giants and hit (.260/.342/.481). His K% raised from 17.5% in the NWL to 22.5% in the California League. He’s struggled this year in AA, hitting (.216/.348/.414) but if you squint hard enough, his away line isn’t too bad (.239/.373/.420) he won’t be a starter in the big leagues because of his defense but he could profile as a offense first backup catcher that can pop the occasional home run and take a walk. That has some value.

RHP Adam Cowart - I’ve let my love for Cowart be known on this site. I really do love the guy. Cowart was drafted in the ‘06 draft in the far reaches of the 35th round out of Kansas State University. Why do I love Cowart so much? He doesn’t blow away hitters with a 97mph fastball and some still wonder if he’ll ever make it to the major leagues but Cowart succeeds by pitching in an unorthodox motion, a sort of slinging, sidearm, diving motion, that’s given hitters fits ever since he entered the minor leagues. He works in the low-80’s and features a changeup and a slider that aren’t remarkable. He gets by on having amazing command — he’s never had a BB% higher than 4.7 — and by getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground. In 326 career minor league innings, he’s allowed just 6 home runs. Even though he’s still starting in the Giants system, he profiles as Chad Bradford-lite. A reliever that will come in, throw strikes, get ground balls, and give RHB’s loads of trouble.

RHP Joe Martinez - Another fringy starter in the Giants system — do we have a ton of these guys or what — that’s had success. Throws in the upper-80’s with the ability to touch 90-91mph now and then. Features a curveball that’s his “strike out pitch” according to Baseball America. For a guy with fringy stuff, he’s been getting enough strikeouts at the lower levels of S-K, Augusta, and San Jose. He’s a strike-thrower, posting solid BB%’s at each level he’s pitched. His K% has taken a dip this year — making me wonder if most of his K’s were coming off hitters chasing his curve at lower levels — but he’s boosted his GB%. At the moment, 60% of balls hit into play off of Martinez have been on the ground, that’s a great rate. The Giants have moved Martinez slowly, taking him through one level at a time and they’ll most likely let him finish the year in AA. His FIP is currently 2.96 and if he finishes the year strong, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be moved up a level to AAA. He’ll most likely profile as a reliever or a 5/6th starter at the major league level. Martinez provides nice organizational depth.

RHP Kelvin Pichardo - Another relieving prospect in the Giants system. Amazingly, he was acquired in the Michael Tucker to the Phillies trade. Pichardo has a big arm that he uses to run fastballs into the mid-90’s and a curveball that can be a plus pitch for him at times. He blew through the lower levels of S-K, Augusta, and San Jose before making it to AA Connecticut in the second half of the ‘07 season. He struggled with control, walking 16 hitters in 21 innings and the Giants left him at AA to start this year. He’s still had some control problems this year — BB% of 12% — and his K% has dropped to 18.8% when it was at a ridiculous 36% in San Jose. But, Pichardo is only 22-years-old and his arm has a lot of promise. Anyone that can throw in the mid-90’s has a good chance of making it to the majors. I think his upside would be late inning relief, maybe in the setup role.

RHP Sergio Romo - Romo dazzles opposing hitters with a variety of pitches coming out of a variety of arm slots and angles. On a pure “stuff” level, Romo’s “stuff” isn’t off the charts, it’s rather pedestrian. He works in the upper 80’s and his curveball is an average pitch but similar to Cowart, he has amazing control that allows him to spot his pitches wherever he wants them. Toss in some deception from his pitching motion — he sort of slings the ball in a low arm slot — and you’ve got Sergio Romo. He doesn’t walk hitters — BB% of 5.1 — and despite not having a huge velocity, has never had trouble striking out hitters — K% of 29.3 in AA this year. His ‘07 line from San Jose is just ridiculous: 65.2 IP, 33 H, 9 ER, 15 BB, 104 SO. He briefly had some struggles in AA when he came off of a injury — I believe it was a knee problem — but since giving up 3 earned runs on May 31st, he’s made 5 straight strong appearances. Over those 5 appearances his line looks like this: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 SO. That’s a positively small sample but I’d like to think he’s adjusted from his injury and is back to pitching well again.

The AA level doesn’t have the same talent or upside that the lower levels have, but it does have some players that could profile as the next members of the Giants bullpen array. Cowart, Romo, and Pichardo could all be relievers in the Giants bullpen at some point down the line. I think of the trio, Romo might have the most upside in the bullpen and I’d love to see him make it as a late inning reliever. Martinez might be more suited to a long relief role or be an occasional spot starter.

On the hitting side, Ishikawa and Witter aren’t perfect prospects but they do have some positives going for them. Ishikawa’s season this year in Connecticut has saved his status as a prospect. He might not project as a starting first baseman any more, but he could end up as a platoonmate for someone who can mash lefties. Or, he might not ever make it to the majors but even as a skeptic of Ishikawa’s, I’ve been happy with the adjustments he’s made.

Next, we’ll head to AAA Fresno (aka Scott McClain Country) and check out the last level of our Farm Review.

Well, that didn’t take long.

Henry Schulman ponders the possibility of the Giants hiring recently fired Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson to work personally with Barry Zito.

Rick Peterson was Barry Zito’s pitching coach through the pitcher’s best years in Oakland. Now that Peterson is unemployed, would it not make sense for the Giants to hire him as a special instructor to work with Zito and help right him?

There were indications Tuesday that some in the front office have reached the same conclusion and are considering Peterson, who was canned as Mets pitching coach early Tuesday morning. New York manager Willie Randolph and first-base coach Tom Nieto also were let go.

If you rub your temples fast enough, while standing on one foot and chanting “Zitooooo” in a low, and monotonous voice, it almost makes sense. When Peterson coached Zito he was good. It’s as simple as that, Zito + Peterson = fixed.

Right?

Maybe.

I’m not sure that this is the same Zito that Peterson worked with 4 years ago. He’s obviously lost a good bit of velocity and his control has moved from just kinda-bad to where-is-home-plate-bad. And Shulman warns as much. Peterson is no safe bet to fix whatever is ailing Zito.

For kicks, I decided to use some of Josh Kalk’s awesome PFX data and compare Zito’s pitch-types from 2007 to this year. Since control has been such a big problem with Zito — he’s even started to say it in the the press — I wanted to compare the percentage of balls thrown for each of his pitch-types.

Pitch       2007     2008
Fastball    42.7     36.6
Curveball   35.5     32.3
Slider      48.5     22.3
Change      29.3     31.9

These are the percentages of balls thrown on each pitch-type. So, in ‘07 42.7% of fastballs that Zito threw went for a ball. To my surprise, Zito’s control on his pitches of: fastball, curveball, and slider, appears to have gotten better this year. His control of the changeup has gotten slightly worse. But, a couple of caveats. I’m looking at not even a half season worth of data from Zito and it could be even less when you consider that PFX might not be tracking all of his starts. Also, don’t get overly excited about his slider percetnage, it’s a really small sample size in both years of something like 70 sliders thrown. Zito’s control has slipped this year even if it’s not showing up in his actual pitch-types. But it is indeed odd to see the percentage of balls on his pitch-types go down mostly across the board. Are hitters becoming more patient against Zito? Making him work to throw strikes? I’ll have to think about this one more and consider doing a comparison PFX article of Zito from ‘07 to ‘08.

Back to Peterson. I think wherever you might fall on this issue might be how you view coaching as a whole. Can coaches help a player get out of a funk? Find that something they’ve been missing? Notice some mechanical flaw, teach a new pitch or technique, or change positioning to produce better results? Because we don’t actually know where Zito’s talent stopped and Peterson’s coaching started, I have a really hard time quantifying how much help a good coach is actually worth. I could probably coach Johan Santana pretty easily and if he had success, who would be responsible?

Thats why coaching can be so cloudy. You just don’t know where the talent stops and the coaching begins. We can’t know, and that makes it hard to judge. Are coaches worthless? Certainly not. But they could be given more credit than they deserve, or not enough credit. We just don’t know. The question of coaching is almost a philosophical one. Does a tree make a sound in the forest if it falls and nobody is around to hear it? Can Rick Peterson really help Barry Zito? I dunno.

I do know that if I’m the Giants, I hire Peterson. I’m going to exhaust every option I have to fix Barry Zito. They’ve paid too much money not to exhaust every thinkable option. Let him work with Peterson, let him surf, let him burn incense on the pitchers mound, let him do yoga in the dugout, let him play guitar in the bullpen, let him do whatever wacky new fangled new age thing he wants to do. But we don’t know if any of those things are ever actually going to help. And thats what makes this situation tricky.

Bringing in Peterson to work with Zito is a drop in the bucket compared to what they’ve invested in Zito. This is just another option to take but ultimately, it could be futile, you have to take that chance.

Comment Starter: Can coaches really fix a player? Yes, no, or indifferent?