7 responses to “Rolling the Dice”

  1. randolphstcosmo

    I’m very worried about the way the Giants are handling their young pitching, but Lincecum’s mechanics seemed to remain solid all night, and it’s mainly when mechanics go out of whack that injuries occur. While I’m not sure that’s any kind of justification for having a slight-of-build 23 year old throw 120+ pitches in April, perhaps that’s what was on Bochy’s mind.
    I’m so happy to have found some rational, sabermetrically-inclined commentary on the Giants. Keep up the good work.

  2. Michael New Jr.

    I couldn’t agree more! I was completely shocked that Bochy kept him in the game last night. Please don’t ruin the one good thing we have going for us.

  3. daveinexile

    I really don’t get what Bochy is “thinking” here with his use of Tim & Matt so far. I can’t cobble together any justifiable rational beyond a misguided, “ Well they did it that way in the 60’s .“ If any one has one I would be real interested in hearing out. I promise no sarcasm.

    Just because these guys are dominate does not mean they know enough to protect themselves. That’s Bochy’s job. I am seriously wondering his they need a breathalyzer test (or some thing) that he has to blow into every half inning. If he fails then the bench coach (or even a ball dude) takes over and the rest of the team just ignores him.

  4. obsessivegiantscompulsive

    Will Carroll has something recently (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=853) I would like to quote from:

    “no one that looks at pitching knows what they’re seeing. At best, we can speak in generalities, rules of thumb, and conjecture. Yes, I’ve done it and will do it again, but none of us have the knowledge needed.”

    So here’s the lead guy of BP, BP being the lead group pushing pitch counts abuse, saying that none of us have the knowledge needed, including himself. Just something to keep in mind whenever someone feels like pontificating on this point.

    All I need to know is that Lincecum is able to long throw the next day, no problem, and don’t need to ice his arm down after a start. The vast majority of pitchers need to do this because their body and arm is put under huge physical stress, and need to cool it down, get the swelling down. His body/throwing is different, no matter what any of you say. But most seem to forget that he doesn’t ice his arm and is able to long-throw the next day when saying how wrong this is for him.

    Now, am I saying to just have him throw complete game, 160+ pitches? No. But if he’s throwing as much as any other pitcher and he’s still efffective, I don’t see any reason to take him out.

    However, if this is talk about Matt Cain, I would say that I would lean more towards caution than extreme. I would like to see him pitch less average pitches per game, less pitches in a game max. He had arm problems his first season with us in the pros. Plus, he gets in a lot more stressful counts, particularly when he is as wild as he was last night, with 5 walks. Him, I would baby his arm more, despite how he towers over Lincecum physically.

  5. daveinexile

    If we are going to precede that the data may not be there to discuss pitch counts on young arms analytically then lets got at it with antidotal evidence. To that end I would like to submit the Box score for July 2, 1963. Braves vs. Giants.
    ( http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN196307020.shtml ) Yes the game as little before my time but I grew up hearing about it. 16 innings of Spahn vs. Marichal. No relievers. Mays solo home run in the bottom of the 16th decides it. The stuff of legends.

    I could not find a documented pitch count but lets just say lots. I have heard interviews with Marichal that his arm was not right for a couple weeks there after. He still got wins but it was a struggle. All because he would not let “ that old man stay in the game longer then me” and Dark would not pull him. Considering Marichal is the probably the most “recent” comparison to top notch young pitcher in the Giants system to Matt or Tim. Considering the Manager ( then Dark now Botchy) had it in his power to protect the young player ( Marichal was 24 and entering his 3 season in the Bigs) from himself and did not. There does seems to be a parallels. The only thing that is not similar is the ‘08 Giants are not competition for a pennant and don’t have Mays, McCovey or Cepeda like players to get them there.

    Martin:

    As for Cain & a pitch count I am almost of a mind most of the Giants starters would benefit from it. Not necessarily as an insurance policy but given the stage of development they are at. It could enforce efficiency. I would probably exempt Sanchez from this at this point. He is still figure ring out how to get throw the line up 3 times in good order. But Correia, Cain & Tim ( to a lesser extent) could all benefit. I saw El Lefty’s pitch per innings and I know Correia is doing well now but lets see ( and encourage) that for a couple months running.

    Side note just how much off speed stuff was Tim throwing the first few innings of April 29? It seemed like an awful lot for him.

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