Itchin’ for Inge?
Seems like the Giants are still taking a look at Brandon Inge to play 3B. From the Chronicle this morning, emphasis mine:
The Giants reportedly are scouting Detroit’s Brandon Inge, the third baseman who wants to be traded because he’s playing behind Miguel Cabrera. The Tigers would need to pick up some of the $19.1 million left on Inge’s contract, which has three years remaining. The Tigers need bullpen help.
If it’s one thing the Giants have, it’s spare bullpen parts. The quality of said parts might be up for debate but the Giants have a bunch of bullpen pitchers that they can deal from. Here’s a quick list of bullpen arms at the major league level that I think the Giants might part with in a Inge trade.
- Steve Kline - Rumors are that he could potentially be cut before the season starts.
- Brad Hennessey - Signed a “cheapish” 1-year contract for a reliever. Had a good ‘07 which might entice the Tigers. I think he’s more of a 4+ ERA bullpen pitcher than a 3.42 ERA like he was in ‘07.
- Tyler Walker - Looked good coming back from TJ but his track record is nothing special.
- Jack Taschner - Weird reverse left-hander. Can’t get lefties out but did well against righties in ‘07. Good “stuff” but poor control is his undoing.
- Merkin Valdez - I don’t like the idea of trading Valdez but he’s been rumored to be a potential arm that the Giants might move. He’s had a decent spring and I’ve heard reports that his velocity is mostly in the low-90’s but he’s touched 96 on the gun. Valdez has had a history of arm troubles but his arm could still be special.
- Randy Messenger - Wasn’t too happy when the Giants optioned him down to AAA this March. Messenger really shouldn’t ever make it to the bullpen again and I don’t think any team is really going to be interested in him, even as a throw in. The Giants would love to get something for him.
- Vinnie Chulk - I like Chulk. He was a nice mid-level relief arm last year for the Giants. He ended up with some health problems but he had a decent year in middle relief. Still, the Giants would probably part with him in an Inge trade.
That’s a big list that doesn’t have a lot of sexy names on it. Hennessey is probably the reliever with the most value because of the year he had last year. Then you’ve got a collection of guys like Kline, Messenger, and Taschner that the Giants could very well just toss before the season begins, even if they can’t trade them. Chulk is a semi-solid arm that might get a little interest if it wasn’t for his health problems last year. He’s pitched 5 innings so far this spring.
A list of guys I’d like to see the Giants hang on to.
- Brian Wilson - Easily the most promising bullpen candidate this year. Had a nice cup of coffee in ‘07 with the Giants and has some great stuff. Mid-90s cutter? Yes, please. Wilson is heading into the year as the Giants closer, a move that I’m very happy with.
- Jonathan Sanchez - Whether or not he’s a starter or a reliever, give him a role, let him stick with it, and hang on to him. I love his combination of stuff from the left-side.
- Erik Threets - I’m a proponent of giving Threets the lefty bullpen spot this year and turning him loose. The stuff is good, the control isn’t. He might be helped by working in the LOOGY role.
- Billy Salder - Sadler isn’t on the major league team yet mostly because he’s still got some work to do with his control but his stuff is fantastic. I’d hate to see him moved in a trade and then blossom in another organization.
- Pat Misch - He could start the year in the bullpen as a LOOGY or long-man. I like Misch either as a reliever or starter. He adapted particularly well to his relief role in the minors.
Now that Villalona has moved to 1B, picking up Inge isn’t going to block any 3B prospect. The Giants don’t have a 3B prospect that’s ready to step into the third base position over the next couple of years. Inge is what he is, a very nice defender and a below average hitter. Sounds a bit like Feliz doesn’t it? But Inge has at least shown brief glimpses of being a competent, average hitter. The Tigers are most likely going to have to eat a big portion of Inge’s remaining salary and if they do so, he wouldn’t be a terrible pickup for the Giants. As long as he comes cheap, in terms of prospects needed to acquire, I don’t have much of a problem with Inge. I still would give a chance to Justin Leone but his defense hasn’t looked too hot this Spring.
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Grant has a good idea over at his site. If the Giants could move an OF like Dave Roberts in the trade to make starting space for either Fred Lewis or Nate Schierholtz, I would move from merely OK with the trade to loving the trade.
14/03/2008 at 1:00 am Permalink
I really don’t get it. Inge is almost indistinguishable from Feliz. At least that is my impression - I don’t have PECOTA et al to substantiate or disprove my argument. So, why would we pay more + give up some valuable arms to bring “Feliz” back? Even if he could be had for Messenger and Kline (the only two I really don’t like on your list), how is it any better than a triumvirate of Aurilia, Frandsen, Velez? Bring in Inge and you push Aurilia AND Frnadsen to the bench (a waste of money in the first instance and a waste of a developing player in the second) and Velez to the minors. At his age, if you’re not going to have him play in the majors, trade him - otherwise you are wasting a player - see, Leone, J. And, really, what is the point? We win, what, at most, one more game? At the cost of really making it more difficult to improve next year by a) having a bottom 1/3 3b now filling the position, b) spending millions that could be held onto and spent in FA, and c) forfeiting the opportunity to evaluate Frandsen and Velez.
14/03/2008 at 4:37 am Permalink
Too bad for Grant that the rumor is that the fire sale list DOESN’T include Roberts on it.
About Taschner, I am sure you know this but just overlooked it: relievers pitch too little innings to not have wide swings in how they do against hitters in the first place, let alone allow analysts to divine how well he did against LHH during a season.
I would take how the pitcher does against RHH to be more reflective of how well he is pitching, unless there is a pattern during his career that one side or the other dominates this particular pitcher.
Actually, Hennessey has had two straight seasons of doing very well as a reliever, in 2006, strictly as a reliever, he had a 3.32 ERA, in 2007, 3.42 ERA. I think he’ll be closer to 3.50 ERA than 4.00 ERA in 2008.
Nice analysis overall, though, keep up the good work.
Frank, please, Justin Leone is not that good, he’s only hitting because he is a 30 year old hitter hitting against 27 year olds and younger who have 3-5 years less pro experience than he has. It would be like a high school player playing against middle school players, he should do well. You really need to read more prospect books and study the stats to see this, else you will be like others who thought it would be a great idea to bring up Brian Dallimore.
But let’s take your supposition here about Aurilia and Frandsen. If the Giants do trade for Inge, who is to say that they don’t also trade away Aurilia and Durham, both of whom were supposedly on the Giants fire sale list? Both are hitting well this spring, Durham particularly so, thus there should be teams out there who would be willing to take on either for the right price. Would you then be OK with the trade, as Frandsen would start at 2B and Velez would be the super-sub? Or, at worse, Durham should be tradeable, making Frandsen the 2B, Velez could still make the team as a super-sub, as the MI-utility while Aurilia is the CI-utility.
And as I commented to you on my site, you don’t know what the Giants are asking the Tigers to pay for Inge. If he came at, say, $2-3M per year, that’s pretty low pay for a starting 3B, even one as offensively deficient as Inge. And if the Giants are planning to drop Kline anyway, it doesn’t cost the Giants anything, in terms of personnel, to trade away Kline to get Inge, he would have been gone anyway if he was waived.
14/03/2008 at 7:48 am Permalink
Frank,
>> And, really, what is the point? We win, what, at most, one more game? At the cost of really making it more difficult to improve next year by a) having a bottom 1/3 3b now filling the position, b) spending millions that could be held onto and spent in FA, and c) forfeiting the opportunity to evaluate Frandsen and Velez.
A) We already have bottom 1/3rd 3B’s playing the position, and none of them can field as well as Inge. He’s not blocking anyone or any immediate prospects.
B) If your argument is that the Giants shouldn’t spend money on Inge because of 3B FA options, I’m not sure I agree. There’s not much on the 3B market next year.
Third Basemen
Hank Blalock * TEX
Joe Crede CWS
Morgan Ensberg NYY
Chipper Jones * ATL
Corey Koskie MIL
Greg Norton TB
Jones’ option will be picked up and he’s not a guy that I think will ever leave Atlanta, he’s tremendously good but getting old. Blalock’s option will also probably get picked up and I’m not a big fan on him anyways. Crede, Ensberg, Koskie, Norton, not many appealing options.
C) Velez should get his playing time as a super-utility guy. Frandsen is another question and might be the worst part about signing Inge. I’ve got some reservations about him as a ML starter but you’re right, now is the time to find out what he can do.
If Inge can OPS+ between 90-100 like he has a few times already in his career and maintain his level of defense at 3B, he’s much more than Feliz.
OGC,
>> Too bad for Grant that the rumor is that the fire sale list DOESN’T include Roberts on it.
The Giants have been rumored to have offered Dave Roberts to the White Sox already in a Crede deal. I think despite what they’re saying about him in the press — veteran leadership, stolen bases, etc. — they’d like to move him to make a spot for Nate or Fred.
>> About Taschner, I am sure you know this but just overlooked it: relievers pitch too little innings to not have wide swings in how they do against hitters in the first place, let alone allow analysts to divine how well he did against LHH during a season.
How Taschner does against RHB’s or LHB’s is really his smallest problem. His biggest problem is his control and in 92 career IP in the majors his BB% is a poor 11.9%
His sample of 92 total innings is small but it does have a noticeable split.
RHB - .709 OPS
LHB - .779 OPS
Whether or not that’s just noise or a valid indicator of his actual performance is up for debate. Me, I don’t care that he’s struggled against lefties in his brief career, my problem is his poor control, something I don’t like to see coming out of the bullpen.
>> And as I commented to you on my site, you don’t know what the Giants are asking the Tigers to pay for Inge. If he came at, say, $2-3M per year, that’s pretty low pay for a starting 3B, even one as offensively deficient as Inge. And if the Giants are planning to drop Kline anyway, it doesn’t cost the Giants anything, in terms of personnel, to trade away Kline to get Inge, he would have been gone anyway if he was waived.
Agree. Depending on how much salary the Tigers absorb, Inge could be a decent buy. He’s also shown the ability to be competent with the bat in the past. He’s not part of the future, but he could be a OK placeholder until something better comes along.
14/03/2008 at 1:14 pm Permalink
I agree, everything changes if either Durham or Aurilia are traded at the same time or as part of an Inge trade. But the post postulated Inge for one or more RPs (which, then, assumes Aurilai and Durham remain).
It seems to me the #1 goal, as far as the IF is concerned (and assuming we’re not getting Longoria or someone similar), is evaluating Frandsen. Inge/Crede/Feliz types are pretty easy to find. If we REALLY (a position I find hard to fathom) need such a player I am pretty sure we can find him. But I don’t see how that is necessary before Nov.
So, save the money, play Frandsen, take a look at Velez (sure, as a utility guy), play Ochoa a bit, but determin how many MLB ready IFs we have as far as ‘09 or ‘10. If they prove, a la, Dallimore or Ransome, not to be MLB IFs, we have to go shopping. I just don’t see that we have that need now. I would probably change my tune if we give up Kline and Messenger AND Detroit pays $9 million.
16/03/2008 at 12:04 pm Permalink
I know it’s a bit off topic but O.B.C.Giants has mentioned the Fire Sale list both here and elsewhere. Its given me time to think on the list and I am of a mind The List was more a way a telling other front offices “ Don’t waste my time with foolish Tim & Matt talk” then a true fire sale list. If that is the case it possible Sabean & Co might be working there way towards the next step recovery in over their addiction problem with 33+ year old veteran . It a forlorn hope but it is a hope.
As for Frandsen . This should be the season were they really play him a lot at second and not jerk him around for a month or two straight before the trading deadline. The team is out nothing for the attempt and just might find he can be moved out of the “suspect“ & “prospect“ categories. But I suspect the Front Office has decided with him that he will be Ramon Martinez or he will be nothing and that is that. If we still had and INF of Kent, Mueller , and young Aurilia I would be fine with that but we don’t so I am not. Now I fear they will drag their feet and we will end up with a situation similar to our young “possibly they’re MLB ” outfielders are in right now. Only it will be 1-2 seasons down the road and it will be with “possibly they’re MLB “ M.I.’s.
As mentioned it would be nice know if the team needs to go shopping for 2nd next year or two. There is not much in ‘09 Free Agent class for Infield help but Lopez at 2nd could prove interesting under those conditions. Depending on the price of coarse.