Bay City Ball

Joe Crede heading westward to the Giants is the new rumor that just-won’t-die.

From a White Sox Blog hosted on the Chicago Sun-Times:

Joe Crede: The whispers around the organization still seem to point to the idea that if the third baseman shows up to camp and the back looks strong he will be gone by the middle of Cactus League play. The top suitor remains San Francisco, who may even have a deal in place with the Sox, contingent on the back recovery. The big reason why? Aaron Rowand. While talking to Williams in his first free-agent discussion with the club this offseason, the second question out of Rowand’s mouth – right after “That’s all the years can you give me?’’ – was about the future of his good friend Crede. Don’t think for a second that Rowand isn’t in the ear of Giants’ brass, campaigning for Crede to come West and be locked up to a contract extension.

I’ve written a few times on this site about why I don’t want Crede but the closer we get to Spring Training the more steam this rumor seems to pick up. While I’m sure that Rowand is pushing for one of his old buddies to come to the Giants, I’ve also heard that Ron Schueler has also pushed for Joe Crede. Scheuler is currently a senior advisor of player personnel in the Giants FO but has previous ties to the White Sox. He was the White Sox GM from 1991-2000 before he was replaced by Kenny Williams.

It’s looking more like if Crede is even slightly healthy, the Giants will deal for him, thus ending my Morgan Ensberg dreams. My complaints with this scenario have been posted before but why would you lose Feliz and then replace him with another Feliz — Crede and Feliz are essentially the same player, great defense, weak offense — and not only that, but you’d have to lose some prospects in the process to acquire Crede. Other negatives include that Crede hasn’t been a specimen of health over the past couple of years and his agent is Scott Boras. Trading for Crede is essentially a expensive 1-year solution to third base. That might make sense for a 80-85 win team but the Giants are more of a 65-70 win team right now.

The Giants would also be foolish to try and extend Crede and I’m not sure that Boras would want to do that. Crede could rebuild his value with a decent or at least healthy year in San Francisco and then be shuffled back out to the market to get a multi-year deal worth more money.

Because Kenny Williams is a terrible GM and I’m not so sure that Brian has rediscovered his magic touch yet, the prospects of both of them hammering out a trade is mildly frightening. It’s similar to giving two blind people revolvers and putting them into a 6×6ft room and then telling them both to start firing. The winner is the one that walks out of the room alive. I’ve got a gut-feeling that Sabean might try to spin off Lowry or Sanchez to the White Sox in a Crede deal, which is a big overpay. I’m not high on Lowry but he’s got more value than Crede does right now. I’ve always been a big Sanchez supporter and I like his combination of stuff and velocity.

If I could concoct a dream scenario for this trade it would be the following:

Giants trade OF Dave Roberts to Chicago White Sox for 3B Joe Crede

The White Sox OF is full, but they could stop toying with the idea of playing Nick Swisher in CF. Dave Robert is a pretty bad fielding CF but the Cell might be kinder to his legs than the spacious Mays Field. Also, Roberts is the kind of player that the White Sox seem to have love affairs with. He’s speedy, bunty, and a grinder! Williams did trade Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik. This is also the same team that gave the corpse of Darin Erstad 310 AB’s last year.

This would be ideal for the Giants because it would open an OF spot for Schierholtz or Freddie Lewis who could share fielding duties. You might say “But who would lead-off for the Giants with Roberts gone?” finding a suitable lead-off man isn’t even a real concern for the Giants, or at least it shouldn’t be. The offense is going to be bad with or without Roberts and I’d probably just stick someone like Kevin Frandsen in the lead-off spot. The Giants are a team that doesn’t have a lot of OBP but Frandsen has a nice career minor league OBP of .390 — which is partially driven by a very high .328 career BA — and makes good contact.

My lineup with Crede would look like this:

1. Kevin Frandsen, 2B
2. Nate Schierholtz, LF
3. Randy Winn, RF
4. Joe Crede, 3B
5. Aaron Rowand, CF
6. Bengie Molina, C
7. Dan Ortmeier, 1B
8. Omar Vizquel, SS

That’s an ugly lineup but I don’t think anyone has any hope that 2008 will be anything other than ugly. You’ll notice that Durham isn’t starting, in my scenario the Giants see that Durham doesn’t have much in Spring Training and either trade him, bench him, or let him work the garlic fries stand.

Comment Starter: Is Brian Sabean crazy to trade for Joe Crede. Yes.

Or something…

The unbelievable has happened, Pedro Feliz will not be a Giant in 2008. The Phillies, who actually had an enormous hole at third base, lured away Pedro Feliz for a 2 year $8.5M contract that can run up to 3-years and $15M depending on incentives. I feel like I’ve written an enormous amount about Feliz on this site over the years but he’s always been a hot-button-topic with Giants fans.

As terrible as Feliz is, he’s going to most likely be an upgrade for the Phillies. Any team that has to run out a 3B amalgamation of Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs, and Abraham Nunez to play the position is in trouble and there’s not many places to go but up. Feliz will probably smack some homers and play some great defense for the Phillies but with his age, history, and the state of the Giants, there’s no real reason for him to be on a Giants team in transition.

And now, for a stupid quote from the Phillies.com article on the signing. The added emphasis is mine.

“We got better,” Manuel said. “He’s a good defensive player. He’s got power. He’ll hit probably sixth, seventh, somewhere in there. He’ll continue to hit 20 homers. I think putting him down in our lineup will help him. He was called on to hit in the middle of the lineup in San Francisco. A couple years ago, he might’ve been pressing to do too much because they had Barry Bonds there.“

What does that even mean? Does Barry Bonds have some voodoo-like powers that compelled Pedro Feliz to swing at sliders in the dirt for 7-years straight? Damn you Barry Bonds.

The Giants will probably either sign a FA with injury or performance questions — Ensberg or McPherson — or get stupid and trade for Joe Crede. Please, Giants, don’t trade away Feliz and then replace him with another Feliz.

Is it true? Could it be true? Have the Giants finally backed away from Pedro Feliz?

Words from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle:

Pedro Feliz apparently is gone, with Sabean saying, “We made a two-year offer, which he rejected. We’ve pretty much moved on from there.” There are other third baseman coming off injuries who might be available via trade - most notably Joe Crede and the already-dealt Scott Rolen - and Sabean acknowledged he is monitoring players in that category.

After offering Feliz a 2-year deal you can’t really say that the Giants totally backed away from Feliz, but it’s good news that Sabean is showing a modicum of restraint and not giving into the 3-year demands that Feliz apparently wants. Feliz is what he is, great with the leather, not-so-great with the bat. Toss in the fact that Feliz will be 33 next year and he’s a pretty big risk, even at two years. I think that a team with really weak 3B production last year might still take a shot at Feliz, maybe someone like the Phillies, but I’d really be surprised if he gets the 3-years he’s looking for.

The good news for the G’s is that they offered Feliz arbitration, he’s a type-B player, and will get a supplemental draft pick from whichever team he signs with — if he doesn’t end up playing in Japan or something. Despite what Schulman is saying, I don’t think the Blue Jays will be trading Scott Rolen, nor would I really want him. The same goes for Crede, even though the White Sox are definitely making him available, I do no want him. Actually trading talent for Crede is mind-boggling considering that Feliz and Crede are basically the same player. Crede’s agent is Scott Boras, too, who loves to test the market. Crede would be nothing but a potential 1-year rental with a lot of health concerns. I really, really, hope that Sabean doesn’t trade for him.

I’ve been riding shotgun on the Morgan Ensberg bandwagon for 2-years now and I won’t get off just yet. He’d come cheap and without the cost of prospects. He might even put up league average numbers for the Giants. An article in the San Jose Mercury News today briefly mentions that the Giants might be checking out Ensberg.

Club officials are exploring other possibilities for the corners, including free agent Morgan Ensberg. Giants scouts also plan to monitor Chicago White Sox third baseman Joe Crede this spring to see if his back is healthy. If so, club sources said there is a good chance the Giants could acquire him for a pitcher.

If the Giants trade for Crede, I’ve got the feeling that they will move Lowry in a Crede deal. I’m not big on Lowry by any stretch but to trade him for a 1-year of Joe Crede — who’s essentially the exact same player that Feliz is — seems like a spinning-the-wheels-in-sand type of move.

—

While my Ensberg dreams still run strong, you can cross Chris Shelton off the list as a possible first base candidate for the Giants. He cleared waivers today for Texas and was sent to their AAA affiliate. Shelton would most likely out-hit Ben Broussard but it looks like initially the Rangers will carry him as a bench bat, if he even makes the team.

Finally, ex-Giant David Aardsma was DFA’d by the Chicago White Sox. Aardsma, who is #1 all-time alphabetically in baseball, pitched great for the White Sox in ‘07 … in April. He started the year looking un-hittable, posting an ERA of 1.72 in 15.2 innings with 23 strike-outs. In May, June, and July Aardsma never had an ERA under 9.00 and was optioned to AAA where he stayed for the rest of the year. According to his Wikipedia page, he’s also good friends with Kirsten Dunst? He’d be a interesting reclamation project because of his arm but I think he’ll get picked before the Giants get a shot at him.

Exploring new ways to watch and understand baseball is one of the many reasons why the game has always remained fresh to me. It’s the same reason that I decided to start a blog and even write about baseball in January of all things. That’s dedication, folks. But, of all the newly developed tools that can be used to analyze the game, PITCHf/x is one of the most promising. At it’s most basic form, PITCHf/x is a camera system that has been installed in most ballparks around the league. The system allows us to track the exact flight path of pitches. There’s a fantastic primer on PITCHf/x here that explains things better than I can if you’re new to the idea.

PITCHf/x allows us to see just how much a Josh Beckett curveball breaks or how fast the average Felix Hernandez fastball is. The system enables us to more precisely track pitches without just the use of our eyeballs and a radar gun. Fascinating stuff. The technology, as most new technologies are, is still growing and isn’t without it’s faults — not all ballparks track pitches, strange data pops up sometimes, possible camera bias in some parks, and a few other things — but through the system we’re given new powers of observation when it comes to pitching. 2007 was the first full season for the system, it was first introduced in the 2006 playoffs, and it should only continue to improve and be more valid and reliable.

The task of extracting PITCHf/x data can be an arduous process. It involves pulling the actual XML data from the MLB.com website, plugging it into a spreadsheet program, and then charting the pitches out to a graph. That’s a lot of work and it’s probably something that’s beyond most of our scopes right now. Thankfully, Josh Kalk, has created the most renowned resource on the internet for easily searchable PITCHf/x data. He created the ‘PITCHf/x tool‘ and ‘PITCHf/x Player Cards‘ on his website that allow us to search the PITCHf/x data and plot it out onto graphs by break and location.

Remember that when dealing with the PITCHf/x dataset, not all parks had the cameras installed. Essentially, we’re seeing just a fraction of the total pitches that each pitcher threw in ‘07. The dataset might be incomplete, but it captured a little less than 1/4 of all pitches thrown in ‘07, that’s a pretty large amount and should give us at least a glimpse into how each pitcher faired. Ideally, in the coming years the dataset will become more thorough and complete.

Today’s article is going to look at Barry Zito. It’ll be the first in a series of articles that examine the starting rotation pitchers — Zito, Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, Correia (or whoever wins the 5th starters job) — and I might do analysis of key bullpen members depending on how well these articles turn out. The starters have the advantage of throwing more pitchers — and remember, PITCHf/x didn’t collect all of them — so they should be more valid and reliable than the relievers, who tend to throw fewer pitches, and thus have less chance to be tracked fully at this point in time with the system. For example, PITCHf/x tracked 1,353 different pitches thrown by Barry Zito, as compared to just 250 pitches from Steve Kline. I’ll feel the most confident with the larger sample sizes.

Money, it’s a gas…

I thought Zito was fitting to analyze as the first pitcher for these articles. Probably because when he first signed the range of emotions ran far and wide among Giants fans. He’d been a star in the Oakland rotation since 2001 when he won 17 games and posted a 3.49 ERA. The very-next-year, Zito won 23 games and a Cy Young, an eccentric star was born. Known for his oddball antics and knee-bending curve, Zito went on to pitch, in total, 7 seasons in Oaktown to win 102 games, an average of 14.5 games per year. He was a proven winner, what’s not to like?

Before the ‘07 season the Giants, looking to make a FA splash, made Barry Zito the richest pitcher in MLB history when they signed him to a 7 year $126M contract. This terrified skeptical fans. Huge contracts rarely worked out for pitchers — Denny Neagle, Mike Hampton are good examples — and Zito’s peripherals looked to be sliding down a hill. Fast. Most noted, his declining K% — which had dropped from 22.7% in his Cy Young ‘01, to 15.9% in ‘06 — and rising BB%. Add in reports of lost velocity for a pitcher that never threw particularly hard in the first place and you can still feel the pandemonium.

Zito came to the NL with big expectations placed on him by Giants fans. I think that some fans believed that they might be getting the ‘01-vintage Zito and were shocked when Zito finished the first half with a 4.90 ERA. I admit, I was shocked too. I knew Zito wasn’t striking out guys like he once did and his walk-rate was increasing, but I assumed that the move to the NL, would only help his cause. He would be facing a pitcher most of the time instead of a DH and that should help Zito’s numbers. He was also going to a pitcher-friendly home ballpark in Mays Field. At worst, I thought he would be good for the first 3-4 years of the deal before having to make serious adjustments to his pitching game. It seems that we all guessed wrong on Zito’s time frame. Zito rebounded a bit in the 2nd half, posting a 4.11 ERA to finish the year with a 4.53 ERA. It was Zito’s first year that his ERA+ failed to meet or exceed 100. Zito looked like a very expensive close-to-league-average pitcher.

On to his PITCHf/x data.

The Devil’s in The Details

The first plot that we’ll review is the amount of break on Zito’s pitches.

Vertical break — up and down — is defined on the Z-axis and horizontal break — left to ride — is defined on the X-axis. The plot’s vantage point is if you were right behind home plate, where a catcher or umpire might sit. Negative break on the Z-axis heads downward. Negative break on the X-axis goes into a RHH and positive break goes away from that same RHH.

The curveball has always been Zito’s signature pitch and from the plot, it still looks to be breaking quite nicely. The average break on his curveball was -11.45 inches. The average Zito curve was in the low-70’s, the PITCHf/x system has it at an average of 71.82mph. To get that nice big break, Zito has the throw the ball slower. You can see how big the break separation from Zito’s curve and all his other offerings are. No other pitch that Zito throws breaks even remotely as much as his curveball does.

The break plot shows a nice clustering of Zito’s fastball and changeup which remain pretty close. Also, the slider, which Zito rarely throws — only 70 were detected by PITCHf/x — is in the general area of break with the fastball and changeup. Zito’s change breaks away from the RHH while his slider breaks slightly into a RHH.

Talking Velocity

I have to admit, I was a little surprised to see the average velocity on Zito’s fastball was 86mph. I expected it to be closer in the 84-85mph range, I remember Zito lobbing quite a few low-80’s fastballs in ‘07. Even with Zito’s decreased velocity, he gets good speed separation from his fastball and curveball, around 14mph between the two. I still expect that the loss of 4-5mph on Zito’s fastball has allowed hitters to sit back on the breaking stuff and hack away fastballs.

Let’s take a look at the velocity and number of pitches thrown for each of Zito’s four pitches.

TYPE	    INITIAL SPEED (MPH)     NUMBER THROWN
Fastball         86.01		        789
Curve	         71.82                  208
Slider		 79.47                  70
Change           73.94                  286

Remember that this is just the sample of the pitches tracked by PITCHf/x — less than 1/4 of all pitches thrown — so the actual numbers could be a little different but it gives us some insight to what Zito threw and how hard he threw it. Zito threw the fastball — like most pitchers — most of the time. The fastball was thrown 58.31% of the time when Zito was pitching under PITCHf/x. I was expecting the curve to come in at #2, Zito has generally been thought of as a fastball + curveball pitcher, but the change was thrown more than the curveball. The change was thrown 21.1% of the time and the curveball and slider were thrown 15.3% and 5.1% respectively.

The data backs up my memories of watching Zito pitch this past year. The curve was still there but I thought he threw the changeup an awful lot. Is it possible that Zito changed his pitching style some over the course of the season? It’s possible that he wasn’t having much luck with the curve and as the season progressed, started to throw the changeup more in an effort to get more swing-throughs. Even though it’s rarely been advertised as a strength, I considered Zito’s change to be a pretty good pitch for him in ‘07.

Thankfully, PITCHf/x let’s us see how many swings-and-misses batters took on each of Zito’s 4 pitches.

Here’s the percentages on strikes swinging. The better the pitch, the more swing-throughs it should generate.

TYPE	    STRIKES SWINING%
Fastball	  4.5%
Curve   	  10.5%
Change            13.6%
Slider            14.2%

The fastball faired the worst out of his four offerings for strikes swining. This seems about right because Zito’s breaking stuff is even more important now that his fastball isn’t as speedy as it used to be. Furthermore, in my studies of PITCHf/x, most pitchers don’t get a lot of strikes swinging with their fastball. Take for example Josh Beckett who throws in the mid-to-upper 90’s. You’d expect that he’d blow Zito away when it came to strikes swinging with the fastball? His strikes swinging for fastball’s was 6.6%. The difference between a Zito and Beckett fastball is more apparent if you add in foul/foul tip’s to their totals. Beckett jumps to a 6% lead over Zito, but both of them are in the 20% neighbourhood. Zito in the low 20’s and Beckett in the mid-20’s. For Zito, and I think most pitchers — I need to do a study on this — the fastball generated the most foul/foul tip’s which is also important in its own way because it’s counted as a strike, unless there is 2 strikes of course.

All three of Zito’s offspeed offerings got the most swing-throughs. You’ll notice the slider had the highest percentage at 14.2% but the sample size is so low — just 70 thrown and mostly all to LHH’s — that I can’t take it seriously. Zito threw 62 of his 70 sliders to LHH’s, probably in an effort to keep them honest. The slider should break away from a LHH when thrown by Zito.

The changeup was the best pitch for strikes swinging for Barry Zito in ‘07. You can see why he threw more of them than his curveball. The change got 3% more strikes swinging than the curve did and it’s very possible that Zito has changed his style of pitching in ‘07. Either before the season started or as the season went along. Hopefully, the change occurred over the 2nd half when his ERA was much better. Zito did talk some about making adjustments to the National League so it’s believable that he’s throwing the changeup more in the National League.

Location, Location, Location

I still believe that Zito’s #1 problem is that his control has slipped over the past few years. First, take a look at his BB%’s since he became a full-time starter in 2001.

YEAR	BB%
2001	8.8%
2002	8.3%
2003	9.1%
2004	8.7%
2005	9.3%
2006	10.4%
2007	9.7%

Since 2001, Zito has gradually increased his BB% towards 9-10%. League average BB% tends to be higher in the AL because of the DH. Anything under 5% for BB% is terrific and anything over 11% is approaching trouble. Zito was getting close to that dreaded 11% mark in ‘06 and while he did lower his BB% 0.7% in ‘07 with the Giants, the league switch had to play into that some. Zito didn’t have to face a DH in the NL and it was his first time through the league. I’ll be interested to see if his BB% rises, lowers, or stays the same in ‘08.

I believe that Zito’s biggest control problem is his fastball control. Out of all pitches he threw — not counting the slider because of such a small sample size tracked by PITCHf/x — the fastball was thrown for a ball the most. When Zito threw a fastball, 42.7% of the time it went for a ball. The fastball for all pitchers is key. It sets up everything else they’ve got. Out of all his pitches, Zito threw the fastball the most and had the most trouble throwing it for strikes. A common picture of ‘07 was that Zito would constantly miss high with his fastball. Let’s check PITCHf/x for the location on all of his fastballs that were called balls.

Missing low with the fastball isn’t such a terrible thing, it’s harder to get elevated because of it’s height and thus, less likely to get knocked over the wall. Our memories turn out to be correct with Zito and his fastball control. There’s a large group of fastballs that were called balls up in the zone. With Zito, who doesn’t throw hard — remember an average of 86mph on his heater — he cannot afford to keep the ball up in the zone like that.

Check out another plot showing HR locations on fastballs thrown by Zito.

Up in the zone or where 86mph fastballs go to die.

6 of the 8 HR’s on the fastball — which was the largest amount of home runs given up by any of Zito’s 4 pitches — were up in the zone. Zito just can’t keep throwing his fastball up in the zone, he’s going to get punished.

Conclusion

Because of the limited availability of the PITCHf/x data, we can’t really do a year-to-year analysis and see how Zito is throwing this year, on a plot, compared to his years in Oakland. Hopefully, the PITCHf/x system will continue to grow so that one day we can do that very thing. But, from this 1-year analsysis, I think we can learn a few things about what’s holding Zito back.

For the positive, Zito is still getting great break on his curveball. The big break on the curveball helps to separate his other pitches from the hook and to change the batter’s viewpoint. The curve is still a pretty good pitch for Zito, though it might have taken a back-seat to the changeup. Both the change and curve produced the first and second most swing-throughs for Zito.

His loss of velocity isn’t helping matters. When Zito first came up, the scouting reports on his fastball ranged from 90-92mph, by 2007 he’s down in the mid-80’s. A big question is, how much more velocity will Zito lose? He doesn’t have the command of a Tom Glavine or Greg Maddux to live in the mid-80’s. Zito is going to have to adapt to having less velocity. If that means throwing even more breaking stuff, I’m not certain, but he’s going to have to make some changes.

To me, the velocity is passable, you’d like him to be around 90mph more than 86mph but it all starts with control of the fastball. Like I stated above, pitchers like Maddux and Glavine have shown that you don’t have to be a hard-thrower if you’re hitting your spots. Zito struggled mightily with his fastball in ‘07, throwing 42.7% of them for balls and often up in the zone. I didn’t catch Zito much when he played for the A’s but it’s possible that when he had more velocity he pitched up in the zone like he’s doing now. Anyone care to comment on that? Once again, how nice it would be to have PITCHf/x data from that year. We know that Zito has to be aware of his loss of velocity because he was tinkering with a new wind-up in last year’s Spring Training. Maybe instead of trying to add more velocity, he should focus on keep his fastball down more?

2008 will be a statement year for Zito. He can no longer play the “adjusting to the league” card and he’s going into the year with the same catcher as last. He’s faced most of the hitters before so he should “have a book” on them. It’s going to be up to Barry Zito on how well he pitches in ‘08 but if his future depends on him becoming more of a control pitcher, at least with his fastball, I’m not sure that’s going to be a very bright future, given his mediocre control over his career.

One thing’s for sure, he’ll still be stinking rich and a hot topic for Giants’ fans.

Best of luck in ‘08, Barry.

On Deck: The next PITCHf/x article will be on Mr. Unfortunate himself, Matt Cain. Stay tuned.

The Giants avoided arbitration with Brad Hennessey by offering the reliever-slash-closer a 1-year deal worth $1.6M, a nice pay-bump from his 2007 salary of $400K. Hennessey had his best year yet in ‘07 when he took over the closers role for most of the year after Armando Benitez was traded. He saved 19 games while blowing 5 and posted a 3.42 ERA in 68.1 innings pitched.

Hennessey doesn’t have the flashiest of stuff, a nice 90mph fastball and a tight slider, that when it’s on, is a good pitch for him. Can the Giants expect Hennessey to continue to pitch well in the bullpen? Let’s take a look at some of Hennessey’s underlying stats from 2007.

Brad Hennessey
2007

K% - 13.9
BB% - 8.0
GB% - 46.3
FB% - 34.1
LD% - 19.6
LOB% - 80.3
HR/F% - 9.6
BABIP - .279

I’ve decided to use K%, BB%, GB%, FB%, LD%, LOB%, HR/F%, and BABIP as my measures to evaluate Hennessey’s ‘07 season. They all give a pretty good idea of how Hennessey pitched last year. I think one thing that you’ll learn about Hennessey is that he does a lot of stuff well, above league average, but not by much. I think that makes sense when you take into account his “stuff” which isn’t overly impressive but tends to get the job done.

The league average K% for pitchers tends to be around 16%, and as you can see, Hennessey was below average in the K-department. This was the only measure that Hennessey was below league average in. Hennessey also tends to throw strikes, with a BB% of 8% he’s right at league average for a pitcher. From what I can remember about watching Hennessey pitch in ‘07, was that he never seemed to strike a lot of guys out — only 40 strikeouts in 68.1 innings pitched — but instead he kept the ball on the ground as much as he could, letting hitters make contact. This idea is backed up by Hennessey’s GB% which is above league average at 46.3%. The league average GB% is 42% while the groundball masters like Brandon Webb and Derek Lowe induce groundballs at a 60% clip or better. Hennessey is good at keeping the ball on the ground but he’s not in the same class as Webb or Lowe. Because of Hennessey’s slight GB tendancies, his FB% is slightly better than league average at 34.1%. The league average pitcher gives up flyballs at an 36%.

Line drives are the worst type of contact that a pitcher can give up, because they fall for hits about 75% of the time. The league average pitcher gives up LD’s at a 20% rate. Hennessey was right around this number with his own LD% of 19.6%. Hennesey posted a really high LOB% in ‘07 with his percentage of 80.3%. League average LOB% is 70% and it’s often a way to figure out how lucky or effective — depending on your viewpoint — a pitcher was at stranding runners in a particular year. Hennessey’s career LOB% is 72.8%, or just slightly above league average. Good pitchers are more likely to have a higher LOB% because they have superior stuff — velocity, pitch quality, command, etc — to get outs but LOB% can fluctuate between seasons for pitchers who aren’t as good. Chances are that if a pitcher has a super high LOB% it could correct itself next season. I wouldn’t consider Hennessey to possess the type of pitching ability to consistently throw up a 80%+ LOB% from year to year and I think he could settle back closer to his career of 70% next year. If he pitches closer to a LOB% of 70%, his numbers should regress some next year.

HR/F% is also in the same vein as LOB%. Sometimes pitchers just get unlucky and see a boost in their HR/F% rate which tends to be around 11-12% for all pitchers. Hennessey could be considered lucky with his HR/F% of 9.6%, a few points under league average, but the difference between his percentage and the league average percentage isn’t so huge that I wouldn’t think he would be able to do it again. His modest GB% certainly helps him keep the ball in the park as it’s hard to hit a groundball over the outfield wall for a home run. For his career, Hennessey has a HR/F% of 10.2, so his 2007 performance isn’t hugely different from what he’s done over 251.3 previous major league innings.

Hennessey’s BABIP, batting average on balls in play, is also better than league average. BABIP tends to be around .300 for all pitchers. Hennessey kept this BABIP under the .300 threshold with his BABIP of .279. For his career, Hennessey has posted a BABIP of .283.

As you can see Hennessey does a lot of stuff a little bit better than league average but nothing hugely better. He’s got a modest groundball percentage but he doesn’t strike out many batters. I would wager that his groundball tendencies aren’t strong enough to offest his lack of strikeouts. His LOB% is also something that should regress next year will probably bring his ERA closer to 4 than in the mid-to-low 3’s.

All the projection systems that I’ve read — ZiPS, Bill James, Chone, Marcel — have Hennessey anywhere between an ERA of 4.01 to 4.46, which I think is reasonable. In today’s market, is an average relief pitcher worth about $1.6M? I think so. I don’t think that the Giants should try Hennessey at the closer slot anymore, I’d much rather see Brian Wilson take his chances as the closer or if he struggles and the Giants really want to get crazy, maybe give Jonathan Sanchez a shot (though, I prefer him as a starter).

Enjoy your newfound cash, Brad.

I’ve got a confession to make.

I love pitchers with funky motions. Mostly side-armers, though, I also love the old-time throwing styles of pitchers from the 60’s, like Koufax, Gibson, and of course this wouldn’t be a Giants blog without the mention of Marichal’s rock-back-and-huge-leg-kick pitching motion. But, what really gets my juices flowing are pitchers that throw with a sidearm motion, or even submariner.

Thats one of the reasons why I love baseball so much. The game has the uncanny ability for personalization. Doing things in your own unique way. This ability to add your own personal touch, or style, to the way you play the game adds to my enjoyment. Watch any basketball game and you’ll see that most players shoot the ball the same way. There’s going to be subtle differences here and there, but the mechanics are amazingly similar between all players. The same goes with football, watch any quarterback throw a pass and you’ll see that most of them look very, very similar. This is my opinion, so feel free to dispute it, but you can’t deny the almost universal nature of how these athletes perform their skills mechanically.

Now, watch two different pitchers pitch a baseball. One player uses a slow, long motion to hurl the baseball towards home plate. He throws straight over the top with a little hitch before he breaks his hands from his glove and fires the ball. It’s a unique motion to that player. Now look at another pitcher, he throws all bunched up, in a compact motion, throwing from a 3/4 delivery. His motion is fast and agitated looking. Two players doing the same exact thing, throwing a baseball, but doing it in completely different ways.

That’s the personal touch that I love about baseball. The idiosyncrasies of a player’s motions become just as famous as the player themself. They become who the player is and precede him in any conversation or description. They manifest themselves into something real. Rob Nen just wasn’t a fire-balling closer with nasty stuff, he had that wicked toe-tap thing he did before he released a 97mph fastball or a biting 92mph slider. That toe-tap became Rob Nen.

Back to the category of sidearmers.

I love the sidearming, slinging, whirling, and twirling because it’s extremely different. There are a million ways to throw a baseball but nothing looks so weird and unnatural as a pitcher throwing sidearm, or especially submarine like Chad Bradford. I don’t even care that much if the sidearmer in question is even that good, take for example Mike Myers, who has a career ERA of 4.29. It just-looks-cool. Also, for the record, the terms “sidearmer” and “submariner” tend to be interchangeable between people talking about these pitchers. You could talk to two different people and have them describe the same pitcher as either term. I tend to think of a sidearm pitcher as one who throws under a 3/4 delivery, on the “side” but not so low as to throw in a underhand motion, that to me, is a submariner.

I can’t remember the last Giants pitcher that threw from a sidearm or submarine motion, anyone? I think I have distant memories of Jim Poole from 1997 throwing from something resembling a sidearm motion but I can’t be sure. I may not be able to remember the last sidearming Giant but I can think of a future-to-be sidearmer that could one day end up with the Giants. I’m talking about minor league pitcher, Adam Cowart, who I was reminded of today when I was reading Baseball America. Every year BA has a “31st Team” detailing prospects who are just outside of their respective clubs top-30, but still interesting prospects.

Here’s what BA had to say about Cowart:

With his wide stance, sidearm release and total lack of any discernable stride, Cowart effectively quick-pitches every time he throws. That makes him a nightmare to hitters who haven’t seen him before, and it made him the perfect secret weapon when the Giants promoted him for the high Class A California League playoffs. He tossed three scoreless innings in relief of Henry Sosa to earn the victory in San Jose’s title-clincher. Cowart throws exclusively from the stretch and has dominated lower-level lineups on deception alone. He made San Francisco pay attention in 2006, when he began his pro career with a streak of 25 2/3 scoreless innings at short-season Salem-Keizer. Cowart’s fastball arrives in the low 80s but he spots it very well down in the strike zone. He also throws a changeup and slider, neither of which stands out much. Lefthanders give him some trouble and he could be exposed at higher levels, but he hasn’t gotten hit hard yet and the Giants will give him every opportunity to pitch his way into their future plans. Cowart’s most likely big league role would be as a reliever in the Chad Bradford mold. He’s headed to high Class A.

The Chad Bradford comparison is a good one and probably Cowarts top potential. He’s currently a starter right now in A-ball but should profile as a reliver in the bigs. I’ve been something of a Cowart fan since he was drafted and completed his first minor league season with the Giants in ‘06.

Let’s take a look at Cowart’s stats:

YEAR	LEVEL	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	SO	H/9	HR/9	K/9	GO/AO
2006	 A-     10      1       1.08   83.1     51      13      10      55      5.51    0.22    5.94     2.81
2007     A      14      7       2.39   169.2    152     59      45      95      8.06    0.21    5.04     2.27

Like BA said, Cowart works in the lower 80’s so K’s aren’t going to be his game. His K/9 ratio’s aren’t anything too impressive but when Cowart is at his best, he’s keeping the ball on the ground and letting his defenders do the work. In his first two years of minor league baseball, he’s posted a 2:1 groundball to flyball ratio, almost a 3:1 in ‘06. Cowart is very stingy with the longball, too. In both seasons his HR/9 rate of .22 and .21 is incredible. For him to be successful, he’ll have to continue to keep the ball down and on the ground. Cowart effectively doubled his IP totals in ‘07 and kept his HR/9 ratio the same. That’s some good groundball work.

The Giants have been slow to promote Cowart. He dominated A- ball in ‘06 and pitched quite strongly in ‘07 as well. Both years, the Giants have left Cowart where he started the season. Like BA stated, he should be heading for A+ ball in ‘08 and I hope that if he continues to pitch well in A+ ball, that the Giants move him up another level to challenge him. Despite the pitching friendly AA park that the Giants play in, the talent jump from A ball to AA ball is a big jump. Hitters are more adept at breaking stuff and are generally much more advanced than their A-ball counterparts. Why not promote Cowart a little more aggressively? The Giants know what he is, a ROOGY in the making, and he’s not going to ever add any velocity. Depending on if he improves his breaking stuff, the Adam Cowart you see right now is probably the same Cowart that you’ll see in 2-3 years.

Cowart still has a long road to travel because of his stuff and unorthodox motion. The collective of sideramers and submariners that have made it to the major leagues before him show that it can be done, and done in a different way.

John Sickels of Minor League Ball has posted his top-20 list for the Giants. You can find the list here.

Here’s how Sickels ranked the top-20 in the Giants’ farm system:

1. Angel Villalona, 3B, Grade B+
2. Henry Sosa, RHP, Grade B
3. Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B
4. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Grade B- (lack of breaking ball is a caution flag for me)
5. Nate Schierholtz, OF, Grade B-
6. Nick Noonan, 2B, Grade B-
7. Clayton Tanner, LHP, Grade B-
8. Eugenio Velez, UT, Grade B- (I probably like him more than I should but he is fun to watch)
9. Wendell Fairley, OF, Grade C+ (Grade A tools, Grade D refinement, very risky but possible high reward)
10. John Bowker, OF, Grade C+ (sleeper bat)
11. Charlie Culberson, INF, Grade C+
12. Osiris Matos, RHP, Grade C+
13. Wilber Bucardo, RHP, Grade C+
14. Jose Capellan, LHP, Grade C+
15. Sergio Romo, RHP, Grade C+
16. Travis Denker, 2B, Grade C+
17. Emmanuel Burriss, SS, Grade C (I have massive doubts about his bat)
18. Nick Pereira, RHP, Grade C
19. Ben Copeland, OF, Grade C
20. Benjamin Snider, LHP, Grade C

Gripes: I think Sickels under-graded Bumgarner, Fairley, Burris, and Snyder (who apparently he didn’t know how to spell his name properly). This past year I’ve become a little disappointed with Sickels because I’ve felt that he’s lacked consistency in his grades and grading system. Truth be told, he’s less of a scout and more of a guy that combs over stats, like me or you could, to rate players. Not to say that I don’t value his opinion on prospects because he’s been doing it for awhile now but he’s not doing anything that you, me, or any other person with an internet connection couldn’t do.

Back to my gripes.

He downgraded Bumgarner for not having a breaking pitch but he could be going off old reports on Bumgarner because it’s doubtful that he’s ever seen Bumgarner throw in real life. A recent interview with Dave McKamey over at McCovey Chronicles had this to say about Bumgarner.

I really like Bumgarner’s clean delivery, which gives him easy velocity and excellent pitch movement. He has two versions of his curveball that are both used effectively, and is advanced for his age. Alderson may have been one of the more polished (high school) pitchers in the 2007 Draft. His command is impeccable and knows how to attack hitters. Despite his gaudy strikeout numbers in the Arizona League, I don’t think he’s going to be a big strikeout pitcher. His arm action isn’t very fluid and wonder if that will affect his stamina long-term.

According to McKamey, Bumgarner has two breaking balls. I personally have no idea who to believe, Sickels or McKamey, but it’s very possible that Sickels is going off an older report on Bumgarner in regards to his breaking stuff. It’s true that his arm delivery makes it harder to stay on top of a breaking ball, but it’s not impossible.

Burris struggled in A+ ball this year but he improved once he stepped back a level. Clearly he’s at least a “C+” in Sickels grading system. I fully understand that his bat has some questions but you can’t tell me he’s as good as Ben Copeland right now. Burris has some flaws — mostly the lack of power — but hitting for power isn’t going to be in his game. He’s got speed, solid defense, and the ability to hit for a high average because of his speed. Decent enough for a shortstop.

The Snyder ranking might be the one I disagree with the most. Fellow Augusta starter, Clayton Tanner, got a B- ranking but I don’t really think that Snyder and Tanner are that much different. Besides age, they are both lefties that top out around 90mph — Tanner might have 1-2mph on Synder but nothing huge to separate them — and won’t blow away hitters. Here’s a quote that I posted on a few forums that I visit about Tanner and Snyder.

I’m not sure why he rated Tanner so highly and Snyder so low, when they are very similar as pitchers. Both left-handed and don’t have super overpowering stuff. Snyder ran out of gas in the HWB but that was after throwing 150 innings in a year, the highest IP for him yet. Tanner keeps the ball on the ground more (GO/AO of 2.11 versus Snyder’s 1.06) but Snyder K’s more guys than Tanner (K/9 of 8.64 to Tanner’s 6.92) Both also pitched on the superb Augusta Green Jackets staff this year. The sticking point with Sickels has to be that Tanner is 2 years younger but Snynder wasn’t ancient either at 21.

From a stuff and performance angle, they are very similiar in my opinion. I definitely think the straight “C” for Snyder is a bit of a low-ball grade. The Giants probably should have moved him up a level in ‘07 (probably to A+ ball?) but most likely didn’t want to mess with the Augusta staff which ruined many a hitters day in ‘07.

I also think that a “B-” grade for Velez is an over-grade. Velez is a guy that only really has one plus-tool, and that’s his speed. He isn’t a great defender or hitter by any stretch. He’s got some gap power but his speed is still his #1 tool. I would have probably stuck him in the “C+” category.

The Giants farm system is still a work in progress but it’s making steps in the right direction. Hopefully in the 2008 player draft we can pick up a hitter with the #5 pick and continue to reinvest in the farm system. Building up the farm should be a top priority for Sabean because chances are that the Giants are going to need all the help that they can get.

The Giants have announced 15 players who got the invite for spring training. Non-roster invites are usually a mix of long-shot players who’ve either played in the minors forever or have had injuries that have delayed their careers and younger rookies hoping to break camp with the big club. Let’s take a look at the invites.

The Players

Pitchers

1. Bartolome Fortunato - The “other guy” in the Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano trade. Fortunato was a Devil Rays prospect before becoming part of the package heading to the Mets with Zambrano in the ill-fated trade for Scott Kazmir. He’s only pitched 29 innings in the majors but has compiled 338.1 innings in the minors. His career K/9 in the minor leagues is 10.28 which is a little intriguing.

Here’s what BA said about Fortunato all the way back in 2004 after the Kazmir trade.

Fortunato, 29, signed as an outfielder out of the Dominican in 1996. Though he has a 93-94 mph fastball and has served as the closer at Triple-A Durham this year, he wasn’t considered one of the Rays’ top prospects. Fortunato was 4-3, 2.42 with nine saves in 34 games, with a 51-21 K-BB ratio in 45 innings. International League hitters were batting just .175 with four homers against him. In 157 minor league games, he has a career record of 27-20, 3.57.

The low-90’s velocity seems to mesh well with his strikeout numbers in the minors. He was out of baseball for all of 2007 after Tommy John surgery and he’ll be 33 coming into the 2008 season. According to the Giants main website, he pitched 13.1 scoreless innings in the Dominican Winter League. He could make his way to San Francisco at some point in the 2008 season but I’d expect him to start the year in Fresno. The bullpen is just too crowded right now and I’d rank several people in front of him on the depth chart. He’s probably the most interesting reliever out of the NRI guys, though. If he regained some of the zip on his fastall he could be useful.

2. Victor Santos - Santos has the most experience out of the NRI group but that’s about all I can say. He’s pitched with Detroit, Colorado, Texas, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati. He sports a career major league ERA of 5.21 in 602.1 innings pitched. If he somehow miraciously makes the team, he’ll probably never leave a mop-up role. He’s been entirely too hittable during his MLB time. Think a right-handed Wayne Franklin.

3. Keiichi Yabu - Japanese pitchers are supposed to be good, right? Yabu pitched 11 seasons in Japan with the Hanshin Tigers and did well enough before finally making his appearance state-side in 2005 with the Athletics. In ‘05, he pitched 58 innings of 4.50-ERA-ball. Yabu is another longshot, his Japanese peripherals aren’t very impressive and he didn’t really blow anyone away in ‘05. He’ll be 39 years old and looking for another chance to pitch in the majors. Mark this one doubtful.

Catchers

4. Steve Holm - The 27-year-old AA catcher played his entire 2007 in Connecticut for the Norwich Defenders. According to the Giants main page he earned Eastern League All-Star honors for his season in which he hit (.272/.387/.433). I love the high OBP and modest power in the Eastern League, which has been notoriously hard on hitters, but Holm has little chance of making the team as a backup with Eliezer and G-Rod in front of him. He’ll probably start the year in Fresno and stay there.

5. Pablo Sandoval - Is he a catcher or isn’t he? Sandoval, who’s still very young at 20-years-old, has already been moved around some defensively in his young career. In 2006 the Giants moved him off of catcher the third base in an attempt to “jump start his bat”. In 2007 he was back at catcher and split duties with Adam Witter. His final line in ‘07 in A+ ball is encouraging, especially the bump in power (.287/.312/.476) even if it was in the Cal League. He should be heading to AA in ‘08.

6. Jackson Williams - A draft choice from the 2007 draft, Williams has already earned a reputation for his defense behind the plate but the Oklahoma product has questions about how much he’ll hit. His catch and throw times are supposed to be insane and if he ever makes it to the majors, it’ll be on the strength of his defense.

Infielders

7. Manny Burris - Very speedy — stole 68 bases between A and A+ ball — but Burris still has some questions about how his bat will play. The jackrabbit shortstop performed terribly to start the year in A+ ball and was demoted to A-ball. Once he went back a level, he did much better, hitting for a high batting average and playing a sound defensive shortstop. Burris will hardly ever hit for power — he has 1 career minor league HR — but if he can keep making progress like he did once he moved back a level, he could have some major league value. He’s still 2-3 years away from the big leagues so don’t expect him in San Fran any time soon. His 2008 will play a huge role on how fast he heads towards the majors, if he struggles again it could be a bad sign but if he rebounds in A+ ball it should only help his prospect status.

8. Brian Bocock - He’s a little like Burris in the fact that he’s a strong defensive shortstop, maybe even a tad better than Burris with the glove. Baseball America seemed to think so when they rated him the best defensive infielder and best infield arm in the Giants farm system this year. Unfortunately, he shares Burris’s same weak bat, he hit enough in A-ball for a defensive specialist (.292/.354/.379) but bottomed out once he moved up the ladder to San Jose, where he hit (.220/.293/.328). He’s fast but nowhere near as fast as Burris. He’s also a good bit away from the majors and time will tell if he’ll ever hit enough to be useful. I saw him play at the Futures Game this year in San Fran and he’s every bit as slick with the glove as advertised, if he could just hit a little more.

9. Brett Harper - The lefty slugging first baseman is the son of former major leaguer and current Giants roving catcher instructor, Brian Harper. He was drafted in the 45th round in 2001 by the Mets and has since played parts of 7 seasons in the minors. It’s probably not good news that he’s never made it past AA but his 2007 season wasn’t too shabby. In ‘07 he hit (.296/.350/.500) as a 25-year-old in the Eastern League. He also hit 25 2B’s and 24 HR’s in ‘07. He missed most of 2006 with an injury but he could be a sleeper for first base with the Giants if he really impresses in Spring Training. It’ll be a long shot but 1B is a weak position for the Giants.

10. Justin Leone - Leone can mostly play 3B/OF but he logged a game or two at SS/2B/1B in 2007 with Fresno. Leone is a guy that I’ve been rooting for to make an appearance with the Giants after his ‘07 season in which he hit (.269/.383/.498). Sure, those stats might be a little pumped up by playing in the PCL but I like the OBP and power — he hit 30 2B’s 4 3B’s 20 HR’s and stole 26 bags–, even if it takes a dip in the majors. Leone will be 31 for the 2008 season and has to be considered a longshot for the 3B position. I don’t think the Giants thought much about Leone because they never even called him up last year. He would be a great utility man on a better team and he could be considered a sleeper candiate for 3B with the Giants depending on who gets signed between now and Spring Training.

11. Scott McClain - Boy, I’d love to see McClain get platooned at first base for the Giants. He’s got legitimate power but he’ll K a lot. The 18-year minor league veteran hit 31 HR’s last year for the Grizzlies and absolutely destroyed LHP to the tune of (.280/.397/.544). I think he would be a pretty good platoon option at first base for the Giants but I’m doubtful that they’ll take him very seriously. He got a brief cup of coffee in ‘07 but hardly earned any playing time. Give him a shot already!

12. Ivan Ochoa - More of the same, lots of glove, little bat. Ochoa’s minor league career of (.246/.330/.307) is going to make it really hard for any team to carry him, even the Giants. He’ll end up back in Fresno for most of the year and shouldn’t make it to the Giants.

Outfielders

13. Ben Copeland - He’s got doubles power and a good batting eye — he drew 70 walks against 77 K’s in A+ ball — but still has a long way to go. The Giants have more outfielders than you can shake a stick at so it’s doubtful that Copeland will be on the team any time soon. I’d rank several minor league outfielders ahead of him and he’ll have to continue to prove himself at each level to make it. In a perfect world, he’ll end up as a 4th OF that can play all three OF positions. LHP absolutely kill him — he hit (.156/.233/.189) against them in ‘07 –, he’ll have trouble reaching the majors until he can handle southpaws.

14. Brian Horwitz - Horwitz has always been able to make contact — career batting average of .326 over 4 minor league seasons — but that contact comes without much punch. Over those 4 seasons, he’s only hit 11 HR’s. He would probably make an awesome pinch-hitter but the Giants have bigger fish to fry. I’d love to see him get a chance someday but the odds are stacked against him.

15. Michael McBryde - Super atheltic, speedy, and a fine defensive centefielder, McBryde hasn’t matched on-field performance with his impressive tools. His speed is supposed to be outstanding, I’ve read that he’s even faster than Burris. He’s also got a strong throwing arm and I’ve heard that if he doesn’t hit, he could be headed to the mound someday as a last ditch effort to tap into some of his athletic talents.

There you have it, a pretty good selection of younger guys and older players still looking for their chance. If I had to guess who might make the team out of Spring Training out of the 15 players listed, I’d probably guess that maybe someone like Harper, Leone, or McClain might squeak their way onto the roster because of obvious positional needs that these players can fill.

—

According to Rotoworld, Chris Shelton was DFA’d by the Rangers today in order to make space on their 40-man roster. You might remember Shelton from his 2006 in which he went crazy in April and slugged 10 HR’s in just 25 games for the Detroit Tigers. Shelton, as they say, peaked too early and struggled the rest of the year, never topping 4 HR’s in a month. He was tragically left off the Tigers playoff roster that year in favor of a broken-down Sean Casey. Such is life of the baseball player.

Shelton didn’t break camp in ‘07 with the team and was sent back to Toledo where he scuffled some, only hitting (.269/.381/.420). That line doesn’t look terrible but consider his minor league career line of (.311/.410/.500) and you can see that Shelton was a little bit off. I imagine that going from big league slugger back to riding the bus in Toledo must have been a hard blow to take. Shelton was obviously crushed about the demotion. He did not appear in a major league game in ‘07.

In December he was traded to the Rangers for Freddy Guzman. The Rangers didn’t keep him long, opting to DFA him today, which means that the Rangers have 10-days to either trade him to another team or release him.

Here’s why I would like to see the Giants make a play for Chris Shelton.

1. Perfect Platoonmate - Chris Shelton is the perfect platoonmate. He has always mashed RHP but struggles some against LHP. For his career, he’s hit (.286/.342/.498) when batting against righties. Thats terrific production. The sample size isn’t huge, it’s over 643 PA’s, or about 1-full season of baseball but it lets us know that when Shelton is hitting against RHP, he’s hitting them well. I think if you paired him with somone who hits LHP well, like oh say, McClain, the Giants might be able to get some solid production out of 1B since JT Snow’s bizzare 2004. He’s a RHH so Mays Field shouldn’t supress his power and he’s got a good bit of power.

2. Low Cost - To land Shelton, the Giants would probably send back a low-level prospect, probably even a scrub-prospect would do. With the Rangers DFA’ing Shelton before Spring Training, his value is at an all-time low. The Giants could probably pick him up for someone like Chad Santos, Clay Timpner, or Travis Ishikawa, just to throw some names out there. Or, if the Rangers want an arm, the Giants have several lower-level arms that they could move to Texas. Guys like Brooks McNiven, Matt Palmer, or Chris Begg might do.

3. What’s to Lose? - Taking a chance on Shelton is a low-cost potential high-upside reward. I know the point has been bludgeoned to death, but Carlos Pena was the same type of player, essentially free to have with modest upside. He turned out pretty well for the Rays. I’m not saying that Pena and Shelton are of the same caliber, Pena has done better, but that they have been similar situations. Does trading a C+ prospect to see what Shelton can do make sense? Yes. It makes a lot of sense, especially for the Giants who aren’t going to contend in ‘08. The team can take a few fliers like Shelton — and maybe a Morgan Ensberg — to see what they can find.

I would love to see a McClain/Shelton platoon at first base in 2008. The production has a chance to be good and if that doesn’t sell you enough, it should warm the cockles of your heart to see a career minor league journeyman get a real shot at the majors and a guy with a lot of talent who was left for dead. If you’ve read this blog for any amount of time, you know that I could care less about such things but even I would have to admit that it would be a little cool.

Still not much baseball news going on (outside of the 24/7 Roger Clemens drama on ESPN which is fastly turning into a he-said she-said deal) but a few nuggets of information were posted this morning by Henry Schulman of the San Fransico Chronicle on free-swinging-should-be-gold-gloving 3B Pedro Feliz.

Blurb #1 from Schulman:

Contract talks between the Giants and incumbent third baseman Pedro Feliz appear to be stalling. Sources said the team offered Feliz a contract of less than the three years he is believed to be seeking, and no deal was struck despite a deadline imposed by the team.

As much as it pains me to see Feliz in a Giants uniform for another year, it’s not really a surprise to hear that Sabean has at least offered Feliz something. From the early stages of arbitration after Feliz turned down the Giants arb offer, Sabean has been on record as saying that he’s still interested in Feliz but not at the 3-year price that he’s reportedly looking for. 3B is still one of the larger holes on the Giants and outside of Rich Aurilia and Kevin Frandsen, there isn’t really anyone on the current roster or close enough in the minors — Justin Leone aside, who I don’t think the Giants value too much — to play third. I expect Aurilia to further decline because of age and injuries and Frandsen fits better at 2B than he does at third.

Like I said, another year of Feliz isn’t something I’d look forward too, but if the Giants offer him anything, I hope it’s a 1-year deal which seems unlikely to me since he turned down the arbitration offer. 2-years is just too long for Feliz, even with his awesome defense.

Blurb #2

A passing deadline does not necessarily mean Feliz is gone, but does mean that with five weeks before spring training, the Giants might have to intensify trade talks for Scott Rolen, Joe Crede or any other third baseman who might be available.

Schulman is speculating here but it might be a pretty good guess at what the Giants might try to do if they can’t find a 3B that they like. First let me say that Joe Crede is an awfully overrated 3B who is still living off his breakout 2006 campaign in which he finally put it all together to hit (.283/.323/.506) which is an OPS+ of 107. He’s tended to hit 20 or so homers per year in his career while hitting around .260 and barely scrapping past a .300 OBP. He also plays above-average defense. Sound like anyone you know? In fact, his career line of (.259/.305/.446) is amazingly similar to what our boy Pedro has done (.252/.288/.433). Just say no to Joe Crede.

At least Feliz has been durable, he’s appeared in 144, 156, 160, 150 games over the last 4 seasons. Crede by comparison has appeared in 144, 132, 150, and 47 games over the last 4 years. In 2007 he missed most of the year because of lower back surgery. Crede has been dinged up over the last 3-4 years and it really didn’t catch up to him until ‘07 but he definitely still has durability issues heading into 2008 with his back problems. I’d much rather hang onto prospects and resign Feliz to a 1-year deal (maybe wishful thinking, I’d would only go as far as 1-year with Petey) than send prospects to Chicago for Crede, who isn’t much better than Feliz and has injury concerns.

Schulman also mentions Scott Rolen who’s been one of the most consistent hitters from the mid-90’s to the mid-00’s but who has had some up-and-down seasons over the last few years because of injuries. From 1997-2004 Rolen’s OPS+ never dipped below 119 and peaked at 157 in ‘04. He then battled injuries in 2005 which resulted in him posting a OPS+ of 84 in just 56 games. In 2006 Rolen got healthy again, appearing in 142 games and was hitting like his old self, good for a OPS+ of 126. He battled injuries again in 2007, his age 32 season, and had season ending surgery in September to remove scar tissue from his shoulder. He posted an OPS+ of 89 in ‘07.

The concerns about Rolen are with his age and injuries. 2006 showed that if he’s healthy, he can still hit but the question remains that after 2007 when’s the next time Scott Rolen is going to be healthy? The shoulder problems have negatively affected his power, his ISO fell to .148 and .133 in his injury years of ‘05 and ‘07. For his career, Rolen has posted an ISO of .223. Player projection system, ZiPS, is doubtful about Rolen rebounding much in ‘08. The system has him down for a projected line of (.255/.331/.397) which isn’t totally uncalled for, Rolen’s age combined with his injuries (he’s always played dinged up but had serious problems in ‘05 and ‘07) cast a good bit of doubt on whether he can still be a productive hitter. For comparison the Bill James projections have Rolen at (.282/.367/.475) which I think could be a tad optimistic. I’m not a big fan of the James projections, many of them seem really optimistic to me.

Rolen is still under contract for three more years, earning $12M in each year. It’s possible that St. Louis could chip in a few million in the deal but I don’t think they’ll want to chip in a whole lot to move Rolen. The Cardinals need rotation help — with Carpenter coming off injury and Braden Looper in the rotation, you know they need help — and MI help, so the Giants would probably send something like Lowry + Frandsen to St. Louis in a Rolen deal, which might be too steep of a price for a maybe-injured former All-Star third baseman. Though, if Rolen is somehow magically healthy over the final three years of the contract, the Giants could vastly upgrade at third base. Essentially, they’d be trading Lowry (a guy with injury concerns) for Rolen (another guy with injury concerns) and hope that Rolen holds up. I’ll leave that to the Giants medical staff to evaluate, but I can’t see Rolen being healthy over the next three years. His power drop is concerning.

In all the talk of potential trades, I think the Giants could find their best third base option with a player they wouldn’t even have to trade for.

Enter, Morgan Ensberg.

Signing Ensberg is attractive for a couple of reasons. 1) You don’t have to lose prospects in an already weak-ish farm system. The Giants should look to hang onto most of their prospects if they can and definitely not trade them for injury cases like Crede and Rolen. 2) The financial risk is very small. Ensberg could probably sign for a 1-year deal — maybe even include an option if he wants security — in an effort to rebuild his value. He was great in 2005 and if he could even come close to approaching that production again for the Giants he could find some lucrative offers next offseason from other teams.

Ensberg is from California, so playing in his home state might be appealing to him. Also, with a team like the Giants he knows that he’s going to get playing time which is good for his chances of rebuilding his value. He’ll be 32 next year so chances are that he’s not going to vastly improve but he’s a solid buy-low high-reward choice. Ensberg has always gotten onbase, even when he wasn’t hitting for average. He was traded to San Diego last year and managed to post a 109 OPS+, albeit in a very small sample size of 58 AB’s. His combined OPS+ of 2007 was 88, 4 points higher than Feliz’s career OPS+. He’s also a solid defender. ZiPS posted an optimistic projection for him as well, with a line of (.243/.370/.446). That projection might improve a little with a move to Mays Field, as it assumes that Ensberg will play half his games in San Diego. That’s surely worth a 1-2 year deal to find out what he has left.

Sorry for the lack of updates over the last couple of weeks, the holidays plus starting a new job in December has zapped all of my free time lately. The baseball world hasn’t exactly been ablaze with baseball news either, so maybe my short time off isn’t so bad. How many times can I write about Noah Lowry in the offseason anyways? Three or more times is already too much.

Anyways, I hope that all had a pleasant holiday break and that the New Year has started well. I’ve got some ideas that I’ve been thinking about over the holidays between eggnog and massive amounts of food, ideas that I’ll hopefully get posted within the next few days.

In the today’s baseball news, Kenny Williams continues to make Brian Sabean look like a not-so-bad GM. Jeez Kenny.

And one tech-related question to go with this off-topic post, does anyone have any experience with running the Linux distro Xubuntu and streaming MLB.Com videos? I decided to give up on Windows XP after getting frustrated with the sluggishness of the OS. Linux so far is really, really nice but I’m a newbie at best and I’m not sure how to get something like the MLB games to stream in my current video player (Using MPlayer Movie Player right now). I’ve done some cursory searches on the subject but I haven’t found much.

Any help would be greatly appreciated from this baseball starved geek.