Yes, you’ve heard it right. The Giants just signed the guy that slammed his face into a wall.
Gritty. Warrior Mentality. Tough. Hard-Nosed. Plays the game right.
All of these words have been used to describe Aaron Rowand who just inked a 5-year deal worth $60M to play center field for the Giants. Usually upon hearing such praise for a player’s intangibles, I feel a little queasy because most of the time, intangibles are a substitute for talent. A poor substitute that baseball writers like to fall in love with and fawn over like 12-year olds gazing at the newest pop sensation on MTV.
The following exchange has never happened to Barry Bonds or <insert your choice of prolific slugger here>.
Guy: “Hey Barry, do you think you could be just a little more gritty?”
Barry Bonds: “Dude, what are you talking about?”
Guy: “Yeah, like, I’d like to see you get your uniform a little more dirty, or perhaps you could run face first into the outfield wall once or twice, ya know, because you’re playing the game the right way.”
Bonds: “Uhmm, Security…”
Guy: “No, Seriously, Bare-Bare, maybe try acting just a little more, ya know, hard-nosed!”
Bonds: “Or maybe I could just hit the hell out of the ball.”
Guy: “That works.”
Bonds: /smacks dingers
Wrapped up in that terrific dialogue is my point. Great players don’t have to use words like “hard-nosed” and “gritty” to define how good they are, instead, they go out and play the game insanely well. So well, that any slob can see that they are witnessing greatness, that they don’t have to be told about how great the player is, inside they already know it. That’s how I’ve always felt while watching Bonds or Pujols, my brain chugging away in an effort to understand just how amazing these guys are. My eyes peeled, watching the whip-like bat of Bonds, slashing through the strike zone to punish any baseball that it came into contact with, or watching Pujols and his amazing plate coverage, being able to make hard contact no matter where the pitcher threw the ball.
That’s why when a team signs a guy like Rowand and tries to spin off his “intangibles” mixed with his “character”, it makes me a little cautious. No doubt that in 2007 Rowand had an amazing year. He OPS’d just under .900 with a final number of .889. He hit 27 home runs and bashed 45 doubles. He hit over .300 and his on-base percentage was .374. He made the All-Star team and I got to watch him make the final out at AT&T when he flew out to RF with the bases loaded to end the game. His defensive reputation has been earned for years of playing a great center field. His OPS+ of 123 was second only to his 2004 season which was only a little bit better at 130.
His defense, which might not be as good as it was in his Chicago days, is still pretty good and above average. From 2005-2007 Rowand was a +21 fielder when going by the Fielding Bible. That’s good for 9th best CF in the major leagues over that time period. If you go by BP’s FRAA he was +5 last year. If you go by UZR he was a +14 fielder in 2007. Rowand is still pretty good with the glove.
My biggest concern with Rowand is going to be his hitting at AT&T. Everyone knows that Philadelphia is a hitters paradise and Rowand did hit well at Philly in 2007, posting a overall line of (.319/.380/.557) monster numbers for a center fielder. But, in his career year, he hit well on the road too with a line of (.307/.361/.475) which is a little closer to his career line of (.286/.343/.462). The Giants would be thrilled to get that type of line out of Rowand for at least the first three years of this deal.
I can sum up what I like about this deal and what I don’t like:
What I like
- Defense?: From a defensive standpoint alone, the Giants are a better team with Rowand playing center field. Dave Roberts was one of the worst fielding players in the majors last year to have played in center – he rated as a -19 by the Fielding Bible good for 3rd worst – and an outfield of Schierholtz/Rowand/Winn looks to be strong all around. As long as Rowand can continue to be a above average fielder, the Giants are going to save some runs.
- Keeping the young 1-2: Maybe what I like the most about this deal is that now that Rowand has signed, Sabean has taken both Cain and Lincecum off the table. I’d much rather pay Rowand $12M a year to keep Cain and Lincecum on the team – and to help them defensively – than to trade Lincecum for three years of Rios from the Blue Jays. 5 years is a little long for Rowand but I’ll take that everyday over the alternative of losing Cain or Lincecum.
- Time to go: With Rowand on the team Dave Roberts should be trade bait. Roberts didn’t have a place before this trade and now he definitely doesn’t have one. Rajai Davis can do everything Roberts can do but cheaper. If the Giants can trade Roberts and some salary to a team for a low-level prospect, I would do it. There’s also a chance that Winn could get moved if the right offer came along but I think he’ll stick because he plays a really good RF at AT&T and sadly he’s one of the better hitters on the Giants right now.
What I don’t like
- Mucking with the lineup: Listening to the conference call today, it sounds like Bochy is having ideas of playing Roberts in LF. This is something I can’t stand. Sure, Roberts is going to be a good defensive LF – he was good in ’06 when he played LF for the Padres – but with the Giants rebuilding, there’s no reason to start Roberts over Lewis or Schierholtz. I especially think that Nate has earned a shot to start in LF for the Giants in ’08. Heck, I’d even be happy to see Fred Lewis get some AB’s. I know Bochy has ties with Roberts but its time to either trade him or reduce his role.
- Can he hit?: Can Rowand hit at AT&T? He’s played his whole career in hitters parks – Chicago and Philadelphia – and has looked very human at times in each of them. In his 5 years playing for the White Sox, he only OPS+’d over 100 three times. During his 2 years in Philadelphia, he only OPS+’d over 100 one time. He probably isn’t going to OPS over .800 but if he can stay in the mid-750′s it wouldn’t be so bad as long as his defense was still good.
- Deal length: I’d feel more comfortable with a deal in the 3-4 year range, especially with how Rowand throws his body around. I think the Andruw Jones to the Dodgers deal looks better and better each day. Too bad Andruw turned down a contract to the Giants. You’ve got to hope that Rowand can OPS near .750 for at least the first three years of the deal.
Even though a lot of people like to describe Rowand with all the intangible-laden adjectives, he’s been a pretty good player in his career. But it’s amazing how shockingly similar he is career-wise to Randy Winn. Winn’s career OPS+ of 102 isn’t that far off from Rowand’s OPS+ of 106. Remember, Winn has also played in some tough parks for hitters, namely Safeco Field and AT&T. Whether or not this deal looks good in a couple of years is going to be debatable, but I think if you’re a Giants fan you take the good news that Lincecum and Cain will still be on the team for 2008 and hopefully beyond. For that, I can live with Aaron Rowand in the mean time.
Nice rundown!
Here are my comments:
* First, Schierholtz has learned to be a RF, and he was not naturally an OF, and it was a steep learning curve for him there from what I heard. Moving him to LF would mean a learning curve for him again.
* Rajai Davis is not Roberts equal and probably never will be. Roberts is a legit major league hitter – versus RHP. Davis had a nice month with us but then totally disappeared in September, which aligns with his career up to this point. People need to stop looking at Roberts 2007 stats and look instead at his stats AFTER he had his elbow problems fixed and he got back into the swing of things. If you look at his second half stats, it is very much in line with his career numbers and he is an excellent leadoff hitter, gets on base better than average plus can steal a lot of bases with a high success rate.
* Winn is the OF who should be traded. His trade value is now back to normal after his 2007 recovery, he has a ready replacement right now in Schierholtz, and his contract is more reasonable than Roberts ($8.5M vs. $6.5M for a platoon player). Davis, though, is the perfect platoon buddy for Roberts and together would probably match Winn’s production for $1.5M less. Davis hit .299/.384/.402/.786 against LHP (his overall numbers are skewed horribly by half his AB’s being against LHP when a regular will see maybe a third of his AB’s), while Roberts hit .285/.356/.408/.763 vs. RHP in 2007 (and hit .291/.362/.388/.751 in the second half of 2007, which is in line with his stats for the Padres in 2005-2006, and their homepark is even worse than ours on hitters, particularly lefties). And Roberts/Davis makes a good platoon for leadoff, whereas Winn doesn’t really have a good spot to put him in the lineup.
* He can hit. As I detailed on my blog, his bad years are explainable, whereas when he’s healthy and playing, he can rake. Home parks help a bit, but he’s been a good hitter based on his peripherals all four seasons he’s been a regular, so he should be able to hit for .800+, maybe mid-800 OPS for us, particularly on the road.
* 2 years of Andruw Jones scares me, 5 years of Rowand don’t. If Jones hits like he did in 2007 for the two years, you are screwed for those two years. And you’d be paying him $6M more per year than Rowand. JOnes’ decline actually started in 2005, his BABIP for much of his career, especially during the good years, were around .300, but starting in 2005, he dipped to .240, .264, .242 (from baseball-reference.com); the decline was masked by him suddenly launching homers at an even greater HR/FB rate than before, from the 20% range to 25% in 2005, 22% in 2006, before collapsing in 2007, dropping to 13%. And the league average for that is 10%, so he’s still above average, just not as much as before. He also benefited from swinging for the fences more as well, as he lofted more flyballs than before starting in 2005. However, his BB/K ratio is still about the same as it always been, though his K-rate is rising, but it has gone up and down all through his career. So he looks like he might have a rebound in 2008 in regards to homers, but his hitting skill appears to have disappeared in 2005, as his BABIP is down greatly, suggesting that this is not an aberration but permanent downturn.
* About Winn and Rowands, Winn is steady OPS producer so his career average is his expected production. Rowands, as I explained, have explainable reasons why he didn’t hit that well in 2005 and 2006, but when healthy and playing in 2004 and 2007, his OPS was around .900. Part of that was park, but if you look only at his road numbers for those two years, his OPS was still in the high .800′s. Winn just had that one fluke 2 months with us, other than that, he is steady eddie, neither very good nor bad, a complementary player for any team. Rowands has the potential to be our best hitter and a plus one at that, all for $12M per year, basically delivering what Carlos Lee gives the Astros (talk about inflated OPS) offensively and making up the difference with defense, but Lee gets $4.7M more per year.
* Yes, we got our Christmas present early this year, we are keeping Lincecum on our team!
* On Rowands and AT&T, forgot to mention that I compared his batted balls in Philly against AT&T’s park and it appears that most of his hits to LF would stay the same in SF, he would lose maybe 1 HR out of 10 hit in Philly, and that while he might lose some homers to RF, he probably will make up most of that back in the doubles he hits into Death Valley becoming triples. In any case, AT&T is not as hard on righties in terms of depressing stats down, mainly just homers.
Hey Martin,
Thanks for the response.
* I think Nate could handle LF well enough. I like the idea of having a strong throwing arm in left and he’s got OF experience, he would just have to work at the position during spring training. He probably wouldn’t be any worse than Bonds, who was just a little under replacement level defensively last year.
* I’ll disagree with you here. I think Davis is very similar to Roberts and I have no doubt that he could match Roberts career of (.268/.342/.370). Furthermore, I think between Davis and Roberts, Roberts has more value because hes a veteran. Losing him would hurt a little, because I’m not sure who’d hit leadoff for us right away (Frandsen? I have no idea, I’d have to try and construct a lineup or something) but I was really hoping Nate would get 400 AB’s this coming year.
* Winn has more value than Roberts, you’re right, but I don’t think the Giants will deal him because he’s one of our better hitters, he plays RF really well, and he still can block some trades with this partial no-trade. Unless Winn is ready to jump ship, I think he’s less moveable than Roberts because he provides more value than Roberts to the Giants.
* Rowand can hit sometimes but he’s been closer to a league average hitter his entire career than his 2004 and 2007 years. If you look at his stats by EqA (which normalizes park factors, league, and pitching difficulty) his numbers aren’t too impressive. A league average EqA is .260 and for his career Rowand is a .269 hitter. Going as low as .235 in 2002 and as high as .294 in 2007. I think a 850-ish OPS is going to be really hard for Rowand to get to because of the spacious parks in the NL West (AT&T, Petco, Chavez Ravine). If he could hover around a .800 OPS I would be thrilled.
* I’ll disagree with you again. I’d rather take a short term 2 year risk for Jones (who for his entire career has been a much better player than Rowand, both defensively and offensively. He’s a borderline HoF if he turn it around and be productive for a few more years.) than a 5 year deal for Rowand who has bounced around a little bit between seasons. Worst case is that Jones doesn’t bounce back but still plays amazing defense for the Dodgers and they can rid themselves of his salary after 2009. If Rowand falters, the Giants have to hold him for a much longer time.
* He might be our best hitter, you’re right, but thats more a testament to the lineup than it is Rowand. On a good team he’s a very nice complimentary peice, on the Giants, he’ll have to be one of the main pieces. He was healthy in 2005 and was below league average (OPS+ of 93). I can give him a pass for 2006 because of his collision with the outfield wall. Like I said, Winn has played a good portion of his career in pitcher friendly parks while Rowand has played in hitter friendly parks, I think if Winn had played the same amount of time in Chicago and Philly, his numbers would be closer, if not better than Rowand’s numbers.
* I can definitely agree on this. Thank goodness that we still have Lincecum and Cain. Lincecum is one of my main reasons to watch the 2008 season.
* Interesting idea with the hit charts, but I think its a rough example. You also have to take into issues like elevation, wind patterns, and temperature when dealing with how a stadium plays. Look at Colorado, it’s a gigantic stadium, dimensions-wise, but traditionally it’s been a hitters park because of the elevation. When Philly heats up in the summer, the ball just seems to fly out of the park. I have no idea what the wind plays like for either San Francisco or Philly, but I’d assume that SF has more of a wind effect than Philly, but you never know.
It is indeed a good thing that Rowand is a RHH but it will probably still be tough for him to hit for power like he did in ’07. Philly was the #1 park to hit HR’s in the National League last year from either side of the plate. Overall, it was (+0.017) for HR’s and San Fran was (-0.008) for HR’s. SF played hard for both LHH’s and RHH’s last year when it came to HR’s.
Also, BBTF posted some ZiP’s projections for Rowand after the Giants signing.
You can find them here – http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/giants_signed_rowand/
The mean projection doesn’t have Rowand breaking 100 OPS+ over his 5-year deal.