Take Five: Rule 5 Draft Ponderings
The Giants last place finish in 2007 not only secured their 5th overall pick in the amateur draft in June but also for the Rule 5 Draft this December. The Rule 5 Draft is a little more popular in years past because some teams have found hidden gems in the draft. Probably the most well known Rule 5 selection of recent memory is Florida’s Dan Uggla who was a All-Star in 2006. Uggla was selected in the 2005 Rule 5 Draft and since then has spent two seasons as an above average second baseman for the Marlins, hitting 58 HR’s over that time.
With positions still up in the air at 1B and 3B, the Giants, who have 2 open spots currently on their 40-man roster, could decide to take a chance to fill one of those positions through the Rule 5 Draft. The basic premise is that anyone not on the 40-man after 3-4 years of their signing, can be drafted through the Rule 5 but they must be kept on the major league roster (if drafted in the major league phase) for a full year. If they are not kept for a full year, then they are sent back to the original team.
Here’s a good bit of information on the Rule 5 from Brewer Fan:
A player is eligible for the offseason Rule 5 draft if he is not on the 40-man Major League Roster if he was 18 or younger when he first signed a pro contract and this is the fourth Rule 5 draft since he signed or if he was 19 or older when he first signed a pro contract and this is the third Rule 5 draft since he signed. A player drafted in the Rule 5 draft must remain in the majors, be it on the 25-man roster or the disabled list, for all of the following season, or the club that drafted him must return him to his original club. Since a player to is returned must first be place on waivers, a third club can claim the player. The claiming club would then be responsible to the same rules placed upon the team that drafted him in the Rule 5 draft.
With some open space on the 40-man and a high draft slot, the Giants would be in good position to pick up whatever Rule 5 talent they could find. The risk is minimal because the team is in transition right now and they can afford to see if a Rule 5 player can handle a starting or backup position. Baseball America has a nice new article on some potential Rule 5 selections.
After looking over the list briefly and reading this thread on McCovey Chronicles, I’ve found what could be a intriguing match for the Giants at 1B or 3B. His name is Jamie D’Antona, he’s a 25 year old player in the Diamondbacks system, currently at the AAA level. He’s played both third and first and even caught a handful of games, he’s probably nothing more than a 3rd string emergency catcher but the versatility is nice.
For his minor league career, D’Antona is a (.290/.352/.472) hitter. He had troubles once he was promoted to AA in 2005 for a full season. In ‘05, he only hit (.249/.322/.385) losing batting average, patience, and power. He repeated the league in 2006 and bounced back, quoting from a BA article on D’Antona:
“He got a little less free-swinging and a little more selective, and his power played better,” Hinch said. “He got into a good routine and he adapted well to the league the second time through.”
That bounce back season of 2006 found him producing a line of (.312/.383/.487). He then was promoted to AAA in 2007 and hit (.308/.362/.499) better numbers than any current AA/AAA Giants 1B/3B prospect. He appears to be a flyball hitter, hitting most of his HR’s from CF-to-LF, checking out his batted ball chart confirms this.
Courtesy of First Inning
Being a RHH, AT&T shouldn’t hurt his power too much. I found it interesting that when D’Antona hit the ball into the air, it was heading to CF (28.8% of his batted balls) instead of straight pulling the ball into LF (8%), he actually hit the 2nd most flyballs the opposite way when hitting them in the air, hitting them to RF (15.2%). Trying to go the other way, unless he can constantly find “Triples Alley” at AT&T might hurt his numbers some. He’ll probably want to try to hit balls to LF and CF more than RF when hitting at AT&T.
A previous report on D’Antona when he was struggling noted that:
His swing gets too long and he gets too pull-conscious, and he’s going to have to make adjustments.
Is it possible that he’s made those adjustments? Focusing less on just pulling the ball and instead focusing on making solid contact?
I have no idea what kind of runner he is, but looking at his minor league numbers, I’d guess he isn’t a fast one. His extremely low average when he batted the balls on the ground combined with his career 12 SB’s lead me to assume that he isn’t very fast. It’s understandable why he did so well when hitting flyballs in ‘07, because he hit a lot of extra base hits (43 doubles, 5 triples, and 13 home runs). He also posted a strong line drive percentage of 21% in ‘07. D’Antona’s approach seems to center around swinging hard and knocking the ball into the air, as evident by his high LD% and fly ball numbers.
I think D’Antona is a great example of a interesting potential Rule 5 buy . He’s young-ish at 25, has bounced back after struggles in 2005 to produce two solid seasons, and is versatile. He played 67 games at 3B and 47 games at 1B in ‘07. He even appeared at catcher in 21 games. The only buyer-beware that I can think of is that I’m always a little leery of hitting prospects from the PCL (see: Linden, Todd) and while he had a solid 2007, a OPS of .861 in the PCL isn’t mind blowing. For comparison, Justin Leone, who is no longer with the Giants, OPS’d .881 last year in the PCL and never even sniffed the majors.
But, if the Giants have any scouting info that’s even remotely positive about D’Antona, I’d probably pull the trigger. We’ve got two open spaces and he’ll most likely out-produce Rich Aurilia or Dan Ortmeier at their positions of 3B and 1B.
30/11/2007 at 12:49 am Permalink
I love the hit chart very nice touch! If Sabean is determined to put 2 rabbits at the top of the order and ( presuming) Winn is in the 3 hole a guy that hits Sac Fly’s in 5-7 spots could be a nice up grade for the Giants ’08 offense over the ‘07 offense.
I am in complete agreement of taking a flier on this guy. If the Giants pulled a trade he does not block an established bat in anyway. Given how many times Bochy ran out of catchers last year and the state of the Ortmeire experiment at first I would hope the Front office is already doing back ground checks on him.
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Another name that intrigues me is Diory Hernandez. 308/ 366/ 429 ( BA/OPB /SLG) 31 BB 79 K, 24 SB though 22 CS ate age 23 between A+ & AA (115 games at AA).
He does not catch my eye as much as D’Antona put I keep thinking about Aurila playing short if Omar goes down and it really has me wondering about how good a glove this guy has? He played 48 games at 2nd so has roster flexibility. A flyer on a good glove SS that young would not be a bad thing in my eyes at all. He is ahead of anyone the Giants have in the farm. If he fails he at least has bought another year for one of the other SS’s to get out and stay out of A ball.
Does any one here have any insights to cool my growing infatuation with him wearing Orange & Black?
30/11/2007 at 2:23 pm Permalink
Chris, you must take age into account when comparing how hitters do in the PCL, particularly once they get past the age of 30, though high 20’s is bad too. For example, Brian Dallimore led the league in hitting but was in his 30’s too, like Justin Leone. Their experience, plus they should be at their physical peaks, gives them a huge advantage over the young pitchers who just came up to AAA and particularly those pitchers who are not good enough to make the majors. That’s why Leone didn’t sniff the majors (well that and probably there was one space left on the 40-man and they decided to check out McCain instead).
According to the prospect book I follow, Jamie D’Atona has average power skill, way below average batting average skill, below average speed skill, and below average defense skill. This takes into account the player’s age and level played. Here’s what they said in his blurb:
“Widened stance and focused on making hard contact, which improved power and BA substantially. Bat speed and power have always been present, but wasn’t patient and didn’t make good contact. Average defender at both corner infield spots and caught in the AFL.”
That analyst thinks he’s no more than a reserve 1B/3B. Nice numbers though, I have to admit. Would be a good flier if we didn’t have Aurilia already backing up both.
I don’t know the benchmark but I thought ground balls normally are very low in terms of batting average. Obviously I don’t know the range so perhaps this is below average, but thought I would throw it out there to see if someone has the numbers, I know I’ve seen it somewhere, but can not recall where right now.
Diory was so bad previously that he didn’t show up on any of the prospect books I read. Looking at his stats, he didn’t deserve any attention until this year. Looks like 2007 might be a fluke year, though I guess it is possible he figured things out suddenly, that does happen, and he wasn’t that bad age-wise, 23 in AA, lots of those in the league.
Must be horrible on the bases to be caught almost 50% of the time though. Based on past seasons (hardly any steals), looks like they just let him run this season to see if he could, as a last ditch effort to see if he has any value.
I think it is telling that Atlanta, who recently traded away their starting SS (plus another very promising SS in Elvis), so they could really use a backup SS for their new barely tested starting SS (Yunel), just in case. However they decided that Diory wasn’t worth saving and used a 40 spot on someone else. Still, if it is a flier we are taking, he seems to be worth taking.
Matt Whitney sounds interesting, though not for the majors, isn’t there a Rule 5 for the minors too? He was in A+ in 2007 (and frankly a bit on the older side for the league so that could explain his power), so maybe he can platoon with Ishikawa in AAA? Get two boomers switching off there.
30/11/2007 at 4:33 pm Permalink
O.G.C my understanding of the Rule 5 now ( it has changed a bit recently) if you Rule 5 a player you have to play him at a level above what he was last year. So players like Hernandez or Whitney do not have to stay on the Big Club just stay above the level they last played. Whitney’s case AA or higher. Hernandez’s AAA.
Which is another reason I like the Hernandez move ( if he can field). A nice, cheap, young insurance policy that might have some upside and that can be carried in Fresno or shuffled back and forth if need be. He is not in the Giants medium or long term plans so they can be a bit rougher with his play time and not be as concerned as stunting his “growth”. I don’t see him as “ the answer” at short stop as much a nice possible 1-2 year stop gap for a good price - If he can field.
O.G.C. thank you greatly for the run down on Hernandez.
30/11/2007 at 4:35 pm Permalink
Hey OGC,
Chris, you must take age into account when comparing how hitters do in the PCL, particularly once they get past the age of 30, though high 20’s is bad too. For example, Brian Dallimore led the league in hitting but was in his 30’s too, like Justin Leone. Their experience, plus they should be at their physical peaks, gives them a huge advantage over the young pitchers who just came up to AAA and particularly those pitchers who are not good enough to make the majors. That’s why Leone didn’t sniff the majors (well that and probably there was one space left on the 40-man and they decided to check out McCain instead).
Sure, age is important but he’s only 25 and thats pushing it as far as age goes, but he’s not 30 like Leone was. I still think Leone should have gotten the call last year, he would be been more valuable than Feliz and in a perfect world, would have probably taken over Aurilia’s role (bench util. guy, he can play the corners, third, and first)
According to the prospect book I follow, Jamie D’Atona has average power skill, way below average batting average skill, below average speed skill, and below average defense skill. This takes into account the player’s age and level played. Here’s what they said in his blurb:
“Widened stance and focused on making hard contact, which improved power and BA substantially. Bat speed and power have always been present, but wasn’t patient and didn’t make good contact. Average defender at both corner infield spots and caught in the AFL.”
That analyst thinks he’s no more than a reserve 1B/3B. Nice numbers though, I have to admit. Would be a good flier if we didn’t have Aurilia already backing up both.
How current is that book? The few quotes I found on him from BA were from 06-07 and it made like it sound that’s shortened up his swing more to make better contact. He would probably be a reserve 1B/3B on most teams but he could conceivably crack the Giants already weak selection of 1B’s and 3B’s.
I don’t know the benchmark but I thought ground balls normally are very low in terms of batting average. Obviously I don’t know the range so perhaps this is below average, but thought I would throw it out there to see if someone has the numbers, I know I’ve seen it somewhere, but can not recall where right now.
I haven’t been able to find the general average on GB’s but I’m sure it’s out there, I’ll do some more searching. .187 to the left side of the field seems a little low to me. I know that guys like Juan Pierre, Willy Taveras, and Ichiro can bat anywhere from .300-.400 on GB’s to the left side of the field. Even Omar Vizquel, who’s still sorta-speedy but closer to average these days, hit .260-ish on GB’s to the left side.