I do think we are in total agreement in not using the words “well played” with the ‘07 Giants. My contention is many NL teams are worse off. As a Giants fan this was the worst season for me since 1984. I hate 1984 with an extreme passion and it was worse then the 70’s Giants teams in many ways for me. Such a season is disheartening and distorts perspective. Lucky we have numbers to mitigate that effect a bit. I think we agree the Giants need to import offensive kick somehow. ( I am flexible it can be Obp, power, integrated speed. They just need to pick a method and go after it). I just see the likely hood of getting that offensive force much higher in a trades then getting a shut down starter. Off the cuff The big Unit trade to the Dbacks is the only one I can come up with in the last 15- 20 years were a shut down starter was traded to a team in the hunt. They maybe others I am missing. Were trades like McGriff to the Braves, Edmonds to the Cards etc seem to happen a bit more often. As for signing free agents if they have the big arms up front it makes it much easier to attract a difference making position player. To me that is a lot of positive leverage for the franchises medium term future to trade for just 2 years of a third base man. In a funny way it would the Matt Williams trade in reverse. **** On Col & the Dbacks I was not trying to say they are hamstrung ( like say the Prates) but a poor choice ( say a Zito , or Pierre, or Ortiz’s ( a couple years ago) type contract ) will hurt them much more. Yes the Dbacks have a nice farm going ( even to my casual eye) but in say 2-3 years they need to decide who to start flipping and who they extend. I Say 2-3 years because you are going to get max value on the trade market when you hot stud has 2+ years left under team control. Maybe this last bit is were we disagree. Either way I am not saying it can’t be done just saying it is a tighter margin of error. *** A word about the Giants pitching futures. It is almost the perfect mirror of the Dbacks bats in my eyes. Both young. Both can be very good and very wretched. I have no problem positing most of the D Back position players will be better in ‘08 -’10. I have no problems doing he same for most of the Giants pitchers as well. I agree the Pen going into ‘08 is not ideal but its a long, long positive way from the state the pen was last March. I like Hennessey, Wilson, Walker as the back end of the pen to start the season a heck of a lot more then Benitiez, Corriea and a box full of complete unknowns that was the back end starting ‘07. Now if Sabean does not sign a reliever to a long term contract this off season I think things look even brighter. I also think Lowry, or Sanchez, attends spring training elsewere. Grant’s Encarcion trade is an idea I been drooling over since the Reds sent him down in June for a bit. Of the other list of usual suspects ( Betemit NYY, Teahen KC, Clement/Balentien SEA, etc.. ) one should be able to be had for a Lowry centered swap. I would be greatly pleased with such a move. Ideally the Giants keep Sanchez, stick him in Fresno as a Starter, and he makes up for lost time and is ready to throw 5 good inning on the MLB level by call ups. But that last sentence is totally dream land at this point. I like the swapping Lowry angle because the Giants has a slightly lesser model in Misch mostly ready to go. Long term I believe the Giants can only carry 2 lefty starters that are not fireballs or death on right handed hitters (It’s the nature of Mays Field more then anything else) and Zito with his contract plugs one of those 2 spots. *** As you might have guessed I am a sucker for defensive stats. It has always bugged me that , until the last few years, no one has come out with even thumb nail stats for that side of the game that was half way reliable. I greatly appreciate you walking me through the brake down of how the are arrived at. As the ‘07 defense rankings apply to the Giants I am cognizant of the fact that most of the playing time was older Veterans. I was mildly surprised they ranked as high as 23rd. To me this points( again) to why the Giants should have been playing the kids much more in ’07 then they did. Kids may suck but they have a chance to improve. 33+ year old veteran will only go in & out of slumps tell one day they go in and never come back out. Playing time rant aside I will be very interested to seeing the Giants defense a couple months into the season. Hopefully Robert’s days in Center are mostly over with. Let Davis & Winn do the bulk there. See if Nate can continue to handle right in Mays Field. New 3rd baseman, new first base man, and ( hopefully no Durham at second) a new second baseman. That’s a lot of turn over and I expect to see some rough things just out of the gate. Do they learn & improve? That will be the theme for ‘08.

Dave, thanks as always for the well thought response, even if I don't always agree with everyone, I like to see them put a solid effort into their posting. It seems to me that we disagree a little on how well (well, being relative I guess) the Giants played last year. And how big that margin is like you stated here: I am contending the margin be over come for ‘08 was not as vast as many make it out to be. Its there. Its big. But it’s not crazy insane big. Here's my problems with that idea that the margin has "shrunk" for the Giants to be a better team. 1) Take a already anemic offense and subtract it's best hitter, what do you end up with? Right now, the 2008 San Francisco Giants. Barry Bonds was far and away the best offensive player for the Giants in '07. You know this, I know this, the whole world knows this. The drop-off after Bonds is quite scary. Top Giants VORP in '07 1. Barry Bonds - 55.2 2. Randy Winn - 26.2 3. Bengie Molina - 14.4 4. Dave Roberts - 8.6 5. Rajai Davis - 7.2 As of now, our best hitter is Randy Winn. Try to say that out loud a few times until it sinks in, ick. Even worse, Molina, Roberts, and Rajai Davis are all in the top 5. How many other teams in the majors would have have Rajai Davis in their top 5 for most valuable hitters? Not many. What the Giants are left with isn't much to power the team. I love the younger kids and this isn't a post to say trade for older, FA talent, but theres no way that Schierholtz, Lewis, or Ort are going to be able to replace Bond's production, even as an entire group. They might even struggle individually to do what Winn did last year, be a league average OF. 2) BP has a fun stat called 'The Secret Sauce' which basically takes three components into account when measuring how good a team is. This kinda touches on what OGC has been saying, mainly his ideas about pitching and defense and how valuable they can be. The components that BP uses is FRAA, Fielding runs above average or how many runs your defenders saved you. FRAA has some problems because it isn't based upon PBP data right now (I'd rather use a defensive metric that uses PBP data but we'll just have to roll with this) EQ_SO9, Strikeouts per nine adjusted, and Closer WXRL, or how many expected wins did your closer add to your team. So, basically, its broke down into your strength of defense, how many guys your team can strike out, and how good your closer is. Out of 30 teams, the Giants ranked 29th by the Secret Sauce metric. The defense was ranked 23rd by FRAA, the EQ_SO/9 (even with aces Cain and Lincecum) was ranked at 20th, and the expected wins added by the closer was ranked 26th overall. The secret sauce is heavily related to post season play (because of the emphasis on pitching and defense like OGC has stated) but I think it has implications on the Giants regular season team as well. The point is, our pitching isn't as strong as we might think it is and for another year our closer role is still in the air (I hope they let Wilson get a chance to close because I think he's the best option currently on the team). So, the Giants are a middle of the pack defensive team, a terrible hitting team, and the bullpen might be better next year. I'm not seeing how the margin is getting any smaller. Outside of Cain and Lincecum, I think our pitching drops off. Zito, hopefully is going to be overpaid and league average, but Lowry I'm no big fan of. He's certainly very valuable in this market because of his contract and the fact that he's a near-or-better-than league average pitcher but I'm afraid of his chances of injury. The constant decline in peripherals and his injuries don't bode well for his future success. I still see a team with (huge) hitting problems and even potentially rotation problems. The defense might get better next year or it might not, we know that losing Feliz is going to be a blow to the defense (thankfully, not a blow to the offense) and some of it will be made back by Bonds not playing LF but his offensive value was so big it outweighed any defensive shortcomings he had. The bullpen is anyones guess, can Wilson build on his last seasons success? Does Chulk come back healthy? Do we finally stop using Taschner? The point is three fold with the Padres. 2 key players are old and will be a year older. To assume the Pads turn in a +10 season against the Giants is to assume those two have no drop off. The Giants pitching regresses and the batting line up is as abysmal it was the first half of ‘07. I doubt very much that Maddux will regress all that much. He's been a model of consistency, even when he's 41. He's good for close to 200 IP with league average numbers. Also, his park is perfect for him. Hoffman is declining (K/9 has dropped each of the last 4 seasons) but I still think he's going to be adequate. Both of them pitch in an environment that just kills hitting, so they'll be very good to good for at least 81 games next year. The Rockies have repeatedly said they will be on a budget and the Dback as well will have less money then the Giants. Does not mean they will have less success just means there player personal decisions need to reflect that they will not keep they young studs as long as say the Dodgers, lesser degree, the Giants. Any miss steps here by either the Rockies or Dbacks will hurt them more. If you need to plan a roster knowing you could have to face 2 top end starters in any series that just restricts their choices a bit more. It makes the penalty for a misstep that much more evident. The D-Backs have the majority of their players locked up for league minimum right now, so they don't really need a big budget. Their "star players" are still going to be very cheap for the next 4-5 years. They've also still got a very strong farm system that they can use to either trade from or replace major league talent. Same with the Rockies, most of their players are earning league minimum and their farm system is well off enough that they can use it for trades or replacements. I don't think budgets come into a big role here. The Indians are a good example, low budget, but still a competitive team because of the strength of their farm system. As for Cabrera (FLA) your right I am speculating. Its what we do in the off season. But if you feel He might very well chose the Giants on the open market then why send talent to get him in year were you are not already poised at the top and not deep in near MLB level talent? Were either of the last two true I would say go for it. The Giants need hitting help now. He could chose us in 2 years but the sooner we can augment the team with more offense, especially the type that Cabrera can provide, the better, be it through trade or smart drafting. The Giants don't have a lot of prospect depth, you're right, but I would do the deal if it could be pulled off while still protecting some of the hitting we have in the system. The idea is to deal from strength (pitching) to acquire needs (hitting). If Sabean can’t make that sale to Cabrera and still have made the trade you have 2 years. To field a completive team around him because he basically has told you we intends to move on. I think if the Giants do get Cabrera, they'll make every-single-effort to extend him. You don't trade cost effective talent like Lincecum or Cain for a 2 year rental.

Chris first things first. Thanks for the detailed responses. I truly enjoy them. I just wanted to get that up front. If I waited tell the end I would likely forget. With 500 Vs both other NL divisions shows there are a lot of teams worse off them the Giants in the NL. Even the ‘07 Giants who’s offence could be held in a wet paper bag and had no roles in the back end of the pen for a good part of the season. It also shows the teams the Giants need to improve mostly against are all in their division. The point is three fold with the Padres. 2 key players are old and will be a year older. To assume the Pads turn in a +10 season against the Giants is to assume those two have no drop off. The Giants pitching regresses and the batting line up is as abysmal it was the first half of ‘07. No were did I say, or infer, the ‘07 Pads were a crappy team. But the ‘08 Pads have exploitable weakness. Whether they get exploited is another topic. AS for the 8-10 against each of the remaining division foes that is one game below 500. A back end of a bullpen ( something missing a good part of ‘07), nearer career averages from just a couple position players, or a funny hop or two and that’s 9-9. That’s 500. I am not contending the Giants were a better team in ‘07 then DBack’s, Dodgers or Rockies. I am contending the margin be over come for ‘08 was not as vast as many make it out to be. Its there. Its big. But it’s not crazy insane big. AS for Towers I agree he is the 1200 pound silver back gorilla in the division as far a Gm‘s go. But that does not mean he has the players to go get at a given time. See Tomko for a recent example. The Rockies have repeatedly said they will be on a budget and the Dback as well will have less money then the Giants. Does not mean they will have less success just means there player personal decisions need to reflect that they will not keep they young studs as long as say the Dodgers, lesser degree, the Giants. Any miss steps here by either the Rockies or Dbacks will hurt them more. If you need to plan a roster knowing you could have to face 2 top end starters in any series that just restricts their choices a bit more. It makes the penalty for a misstep that much more evident. As for Cabrera (FLA) your right I am speculating. Its what we do in the off season. But if you feel He might very well chose the Giants on the open market then why send talent to get him in year were you are not already poised at the top and not deep in near MLB level talent? Were either of the last two true I would say go for it. With neither of the two being true if still Sabean trades for him then by asking him to sing an extension this near his free agency period you are basically asking him to chose you over every one else. After having gutted the team to trade for him good luck with that sale P.T. Barnum. If Sabean can’t make that sale to Cabrera and still have made the trade you have 2 years. To field a completive team around him because he basically has told you we intends to move on. P.S. I did quick look at the Giants record vs. the other 500+ teams in the NL out side of the West. ( Mets, Phillies, Braves, Cubs & Brewers.) It was 16-21. So about the same rate as against the non Padre Division foes. Just for the interest of disclosure and it did not seem to fit neatly in the above.

I'll reply to you in order, Dave. Chris the ‘07 Giants were 500 ( or better) against the East & Central. It’s a fact just like our lat place NL West finish was a fact. Some how fans keep fixating on one fact and ignoring the other 2. The central was a terrible division last year, so going ".500 (or better)" against them doesn't really please me that much. St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Houston, and Cincinnati were all sub-.500 teams. I'm not sure what your point is anyways, the Giants played better against some teams (the bad ones) than others (the better ones?) I'd like to see the Giants record against .500+ teams and .500 or worse teams, that would be interesting. Maybe I'll look it up and post on it. Other interesting facts are the Giants were 4-14 vs. the Padres. The Same team relying on 2 40 + year olds to be completive next season. Against every other team in the division the Giants were 8-10. That is far from being trumped. Considering how terrible the Giant offense was ( in any kind of measurement) it should be a bigger difference. Still people ignore those 5 facts and fixate on one fact. The Padres were a good team last year, much better than the Giants, they just missed the playoffs. I'm assuming you're talking about Maddux and Hoffman? Where did I ever bring up age and the Giants? For the record, I don't have a problem with old players, as long as they are good. Maddux is a very good pitcher when he's pitching at Petco (And for what a league average starter makes these days, Maddux is on a good, short term deal with the Padres. These are the types of deals I'd like to see the Giants try and create) and Hoffman is still a better closer than anything the Giants have had since Rob Nen. I don't like older players who are the tail end of their careers and can no longer produce (Aurilia, Vizquel, Durham, etc). Furthermore, saying that "it should be a bigger difference" in that 8-10 record against other NL West rivals seems to be faulty thinking to me. What constitutes as a "bigger difference" ? How do you quantify the "bigger difference" ? 8-10 is still a losing record, good for a winning percentage of .444 which isn't far off the Giants total winning percentage for 2007 of .432. I agree the Dodgers & Dbacks can be very scary over the next 5 years. The Rockies as well but to a lesser degree. But that is assuming their Gm’s make all the right moves. Keeping a very potent 1-2 in the division makes them double & triple clutch. Thus increasing the odds they do not make all the right moves. The Dodgers, D-Backs, Padres, and Rockies all have brighter futures than the Giants. I have more faith in the GM abilities of Kevin Towers and Josh Byrnes than I do Brian Sabean, Kevin Towers especially has shown that he's a very skilled GM over the last 5 years. I doubt either is going to run his team into the ground. I'm not as high on Colleti because I think he inherited a really good system and he hasn't done much to win me over. O'Dowd I honestly don't know much about but he's drafted well at least. What do you mean that they would "double, and triple clutch"? I'm not sure what the connection between Cain and Lincecum being in the NL West and other GM's making good, smart moves. Lastly singing Cabrera ( Fla) is a long term move. Trading for him is pure Spec Richardson. It means the Giants have to be completive for the next 2 season or he will get burned out of losing and move on. Remember most of his carrier has been in the used car lot that is Loria’s Marlins so he has already had several platefuls of crap-o-line. Ever notice how young players fade in Pittsburg? It’s the same effect. This is just pure speculation and funny. The Giants don't have to be competitive but they should be building towards it. Is Cabrera's psyche so fragile that if he's on another bad team he's going to burn out by 26? Do you really think that? As for the "Pittsburgh Effect" I think thats crazy too, which young players specifically have faded once they went to Pittsburgh? And it's also pretty easy to say that considering that Pittsburgh has been a bad team for the last 15 years now, young and old players alike haven't been playing well. Thanks for the response Dave, I'll look forward to hearing some more :)

Chris the ‘07 Giants were 500 ( or better) against the East & Central. It’s a fact just like our lat place NL West finish was a fact. Some how fans keep fixating on one fact and ignoring the other 2. Other interesting facts are the Giants were 4-14 vs. the Padres. The Same team relying on 2 40 + year olds to be completive next season. Against every other team in the division the Giants were 8-10. That is far from being trumped. Considering how terrible the Giant offense was ( in any kind of measurement) it should be a bigger difference. Still people ignore those 5 facts and fixate on one fact. I agree the Dodgers & Dbacks can be very scary over the next 5 years. The Rockies as well but to a lesser degree. But that is assuming their Gm’s make all the right moves. Keeping a very potent 1-2 in the division makes them double & triple clutch. Thus increasing the odds they do not make all the right moves. Lastly singing Cabrera ( Fla) is a long term move. Trading for him is pure Spec Richardson. It means the Giants have to be completive for the next 2 season or he will get burned out of losing and move on. Remember most of his carrier has been in the used car lot that is Loria’s Marlins so he has already had several platefuls of crap-o-line. Ever notice how young players fade in Pittsburg? It’s the same effect.

OGC, Pitching is great to have for post season play but with the way that the Giants are currently constructed, they're a 65 win team at best, even with all the aces in the staff intact. The offense is going to be terrible next year. It's hard to have the advantage in a short series if you never get there. Trading for someone like Cabrera isn't a move to make the 2008 team a better team, it's a move to inject hitting into a system that has none. It's a move for the future (which is why I would stipulate a Cabrera trade only if he agree to a contract extension or at least a window to negotiate with him) The Giants have many more pitchers than hitters in their system, fact. I love Lincecum and Cain but young pitching can be so volatile it's not the worst thing in the world if one of them was traded for a hitter of Cabrera's pedigree. Or have you forgotten the trio of Ainsworth, Foppert, and Williams? All three had huge promise and all three of them flamed out because of injuries (Foppert, Ainsworth) or ineffectiveness (Williams) Young pitching isn't a lock, Lincecum could throw out his arm tomorrow for all we know. Trading from depth (pitching) to aquire a need (hitting) is the only way this team is going to get better, or at least build a bridge for the minor league hitters who are so far away. If we don't trade for hitting, were do we find it? The 2009 FA class really doesn't have much that catches my eye right now outside of Teixeira (who could very well end up signing an extension with the Braves) and Dunn. I think trading is the only way to get legitimate offensive help for this team, it's not going to be fun trading Cain or Lincecum but it might have to be done. Dave, Almost every NL West team has gotten better or is making big strides except the Giants, Lincecum + Cain don't make the Giants relevant for a post season race because 1) The offense is so bad, even with the great pitching I don't think it's enough to overcome the terrible offense 2) As stated before, the level of team talent has risen. You're not going to win the NL West anymore with just 80-ish wins. Cain is with the Giants until 2011 and Lincecum until 2012 I believe. Service clock isn't something I would be terribly worried about but chances are that with the current market overpaying so highly for pitching (Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse getting big bucks should never happen) by the time Cain and Lincecum hit FA the Giants won't be able to afford them.

I agree O.C.D. Giants. Also the longer we wait the less likely other GM assume they are going to get a Hillenbrand type trade out of Sabean. The Giants have a handful of years to get their crap together and make a post season push. Not just one or two seasons. Conversely Front Offices of division rivals have to worry about not slipping enough to give the Giants an opening to climb past them. Those two players alone make the Giants relevant for the division race. I doubt what they would bring back in turn would do so and definitely not for as long. Just curious what others think about the service clock argument? I think it applies to low pay roll or low income type teams and the Giants are not that. But I am open to a counter argument. I have been wrong before. Usually about every 15-20 minutes it happens. So I am due to be wrong again.

That's the thing most fans are missing, having Cain and Lincecum as two aces in the rotation is a huge advantage in short series like the playoffs, they would pitch in 3 of 5 and 4 of 6 games, and both can totally dominate games when they are on. If either are traded, we lose that advantage and most probably cannot replace it, at least not without another big trade. The other thing is trading for the big gun this season won't really change 2008's results, it only changes the composition. Wait to see if Bumgarner or Alderson can become another ace to pair up with the one who is not traded among Cain and Lincecum next season. Why destroy an advantage we enjoy now just to change things around? We can still trade one of the two next season if pitchers develop, but once they are traded, that advantage could be gone forever.