Japanese Imports: Quality or Junk?
Hat tip to Grant at McCovey Chronicles for first making me aware of the Giants interest in Kosuke Fukudome. Kosuke is a corner OF, who has a reputation of being a defensively sound player. He has played 9 seasons in Japan for the Chunichi Dragons and has done quite well. Over his 9 seasons, he has hit 192 home runs, 264 doubles, and put up a career line of (.305/.397/.543). For skeptics concerned about the level of talent in the Japan Pro Leagues, it can generally be compared to AAA or even slightly above.
Fukudome’s career numbers suggest that he’s somewhere between Akinori Iwamurwa (.300/.363/.519) and Hideki Matsui (.304/.418/.582). More than he is, say, a Kaz Matsui during his time in Japan (.309/.361/.486) or an Ichiro (.353/.421/.522). He doesn’t have Hideki’s power, Matsui slugged 40 points higher, but his batting average and on base percentage are close. He had a better power and on base skills than Iwamura. Ichiro’s had a better batting average and on base percentage. Looking at Ichiro’s stats, it’s amazing that he hit a career .353 in Japan, I mean, it’s not unbelievable because he can sure swing the bat but it’s a ridiculous number to wrap your head around. Only Rogers Hornsby, Ty Cobb, and Shoeless Joe Jackson had career batting averages of .350 or higher in at least 1000 games played.
It’s clear though when Japanese hitters make the transition to the states they loss a little something, or in some cases a good bit, in the move. Chalk it up to adjusting to a different culture, tougher competition, or whatever you’d like, but players usually see a drop in their production in their fist year compared to their numbers in Japan. Let’s take a look at 3 hitters who had success in Japan and made the move to the MLB. I used Hideki Matsui, Kaz Matsui, and Ichiro as my hitters. All three were high profile sluggers in Japan. I then compared their average seasons in Japan, with their first year in the major leagues, and their average seasons in America. Once again, I’ve used OPS as my measure for the hitters.
After playing baseball for 10 seasons in Japan, Hideki Matsui saw his average Japan OPS drop by 207 points in his first year in America. His career Japan OPS of (.995) emphasizes the monster power he displayed while playing in Japan. In 2003, Hideki’s first year, he hit just 16 home runs and didn’t crack a 800 OPS. But Hideki adjusted and has made great strides since his 2003 season. He’s not the 40-50 HR hitter that he was in Japan, but he’s settled in nicely as a guy that will hit in the mid-to-upper 20’s in HR’s, hit a lot of doubles, and get on base. If the Giants were to sign Fukudome, they would hope that he would follow the path of Hideki Matsui, struggle a little initially, then make adjustments and become a good offensive player. Even in Matsui’s adjustment year of 2003, he was an above league average hitter, and has been every year since.
The other Matsui, Kaz, hasn’t adjusted as well as Hideki has. While in Japan, Kaz was a solid hitter that hit as much as 36 HR’s in one season. His career OPS in Japan of (.847) is outstanding for a middle infielder. The Mets brought Kaz stateside in 2004. He played three seasons in New York with disappointing results before he was traded to the Rockies half way through 2006 for Eli Marrero. Kaz is a solid defender at second base but he hasn’t hit for power like he did in Japan. In 4 seasons he’s hit just a combined 17 home runs. If there’s a cautionary tale for importing players from the east, this is the one. He turned from a “Japanese Barry Larkin” as BP put it, to a below average player in the United States. It’s not a good sign for a player when you are traded for Eli Marrero.
Ichiro! on the other hand, has made a good transition while switching continents. He’s not the 900+ OPS player he was in Japan but he can still hit like no one’s business. He’s been an above league average hitter every year and his defense has been outstanding. What else can you say about Ichiro? He’s a great ballplayer. Fukudome hasn’t displayed the ability to hit for average like Ichiro has but he has hit for more power.
The risk of importing a Japanese ball player is one that a team will have to consider before committing to Fukudome. Of the three hitters we looked at, H. Matsui, K. Matsui, and Ichiro, all of them have yet to hit like they did in Japan. The fact that the players usually are in their 30’s by the time they get to the MLB might also have something to do with their performance drop other than difference in leagues. Would a young Hideki Matsui have been able to hit 50 HR’s in North America? It’s possible. For the record, Kosuke Fukudome will be 31 by the time next season starts.
I think if the Giants could move one, or both of Dave Roberts or Randy Winn, Kosuke Fukudome would make much more sense. His defense has been praised and he coud fit into RF. The rumor is that it might take anywhere between $10-12M a year to sign Fukudome, most believe that he’ll sign a 3-4 year contract. I’m not sure what to think of that, last year when Akinori Iwamura was open for grabs, the reports of his potential salary were much higher than what Tampa Bay actually paid. Not including the posting fee, Iwamura is only making $7.7M over three years, which is a pretty good deal considering he was above league average this year. Speaking of the posting free, Kosuke Fukudome is a free agent, which means that teams wont have to pay the posting fee to acquire his services.
Here’s my quick thoughts on the pros and cons of Fukudome.
Pros
- No posting fee, which should keep the total cost down some.
- He has the potential to be a above league average hitter for the Giants with quality defense.
- The San Francisco area has a huge Asian community and a player like Kosuke Fukudome would be welcomed with open arms and praise. I think if the Giants make a strong push towards him, they’ll be doing so in an effort to put some people in the stands in the post-Bonds era. He would most likley be a huge draw, just look at Ichiro or Hidek Matsui at any of their home games.
- He will be 31 by the next season, so he should have some good baseball left in him.
- He has a awesome swing. Here’s a YouTube clip of him hitting a bomb at Petco during the WBC.
Cons
- He’s probably going to see a drop in his numbers, initially and if he has trouble adjusting maybe longer. Will he be a Kaz Matsui or a Hideki Matsui?
- The Giants already have league production from their RF spot in Randy Winn. In addition, the team is full of outfielders and signing another outfielder seems crazy.
- He was injured in 2007 and lost a lot of his power. He still got on base and hit for average but the power drop is concerning. He had endoscopic surgery on his right elbow to remove bone fragments. Will the power return? Combine the injury with the adjustment period and you’ve got a bad case scenario.
Weighing both the pros and cons, I’ll give Fukudome a tentative “yes”. If he’s healthy, and Winn and Roberts are moved, he makes a little sense to the Giants from a drawing fans perspective. He’s got the chance to outproduce Winn who wasn’t much above league average in ‘07. On the other hand, the Giants offense is in tatters and Randy Winn is our best hitter right now. Re-read that again, Randy Winn is-the-best-hitter-we’ve-got. If that doesn’t instill you with fear, I don’t know what will. But rolling the dice on Fukudome is a gamble but one the Giants might be inclined to take if they are worried about putting butts in the seats, which they should be since the stadium is still on mortgage.
With Winn’s partial no-trade starting in 2008, he could serve as a valuable 2nd tier outfielder on the trade market after the Jone’s and the Hunter’s of the world find new teams. If the Giants get a solid offer for Winn, they should take it and attempt to bring in Fukudome. I just pray that he doesn’t turn into another Shinjo, though that LED belt buckle was pretty sweet.
29/10/2007 at 12:29 pm Permalink
Just to keep flogging a dead horse here. Would it make scene to consider moving him at First base for half a season to a season then proceed from there? If his elbow is not strong yet the move reduces the need to throwing hard. With his name being batted around as a possible centerfielder, for other clubs, he should have the ability to be solid defensively with a bit of work. It is a huge Giants weakness and the free agent market is week otherwise.
I am not sure I like the idea from trying up a rooster spot with a gamble for 3-4 years but to suddenly have reliable positive offense , of any type, from that spot would be very intriguing.
29/10/2007 at 11:31 pm Permalink
Dave,
It’s possible but I don’t think its likely. He had the surgery in ‘07 so he should be full strength by ‘08. To my knowledge, he’s never played 1B ever, in any professional game. I’m sure he could play the position but I doubt the Giants try to monkey with his defensive position.
The chances of Fukudome could have just went down as well. With A-Rod opting out today I have a feeling that the Giants are licking their chompers in anticipation. But, if Dave Roberts or Randy Winn get moved, I could see the Giants making a play for Fukudome.
A-Rod and Fukudome would probably pack the house almost every night.
30/10/2007 at 12:09 pm Permalink
Personally I hope none of the Free agent outfielders are signed by the Giants this off season. I am just not convinced they are upgrades for more then a season or two. If a player plays an infield position as well then I am interested. That’s being said I think A Rod might just increases Fukudome’s chances. My line of thought goes something like this.
A Rod will get a pile of money were ever he goes. For the Giants to get A Rod he will be making a quality of life choice. The young arms and the more tolerant fan base would have to appeal largely to him to have chance of signing him. Along with the possibly of besting the current Homer Run king in his house.
It should be fairly apparent, to the front office, if A Rod is serious about the Giants early on or if his he is just stirring the pot. If the later Sabean’s past M.O. would say go hard after his second choice. Assuming Fukudome is the second choice. Then Sabean can say he tried to do something this off season.
30/10/2007 at 3:57 pm Permalink
Dave,
I whole heartedly agree with on you the FA OF options, none of them tremendously excite me and they’ll all be very expensive. Not to mention, we’ve got more outfielders than you can shake a stick at.
Fukudome could be a consolation prize like you mentioned, I think that’s a possibility. I’m really only interested in him if Randy Winn or Dave Roberts are traded and hopefully they might be movable. After Jones and Hunter sign, they might draw a little interest. Especially Winn, who hit .300 this year, that might impress a more traditional GM.
02/11/2007 at 8:11 pm Permalink
I don’t understand the love affair with expensive Japanese position ballplayers. Really, Ichiro is the only good example - as nicely as Godzilla Matsui has played, if he wasn’t a Yankee, wouldn’t you think the team would be excoriated for such a disappointing signing? He was a 50 HR hitter in Japan and now he’s reduced to half that, on average, in the MLB, though his OPS has been pretty good overall. Kaz, the other Matsui, goes from 30 HR power to unable to break into double digits.
Looking more indepthly at Hideki Matsui, over his last 3-4 seasons in Japan, he was roughly hitting homers at a 11 AB/HR pace. Now the cool thing is he started his MLB career at age 29, when most players are reaching their physical peak for a few years typically. Throwing out his first year as an adjustment period, his HR rate since then has roughly been 22 AB/HR. In other words, his homer rate has roughly been cut in half by his move to the States, even though he is reaching his peak hitting years, which suggests the drop is even greater, but let’s just assume halving the HR rate.
Now here Fukudome has been a pretty good homerun hitter in Japan. Over his last 5 seasons, after taking last season with a grain of salt since he didn’t play a full season, plus 2005 as well (is he injury prone? That’s two years out of the last three…), he has roughly hit homers at a 16 AB/HR pace. Doubling that, using Godzilla’s best case scenario (and not Kaz’s worse case scenario; he also came over at a prime age, he was 28 his first year in the majors), that means a 32 AB/HR pace, which over a full season is 20 HR power.
Now another offensive value is OBP. In Godzilla’s last years, his OBP was roughly .450 and after his first year here, he has roughly been .380, a roughly 15% drop in getting on base. Fukudome in his last years in Japan had a .435 OBP, and assuming a roughly similar drop, it would drop his OBP to roughly .370, which is still very good for an OF, so he would deliver offensive value that way.
And that’s assuming the best case. Remember, both Matsui’s entered the majors in their late 20’s, Fukudome will be 31 years old in his first season, which is the age range when players start to reach their downslope of their career. Only the best players can continue into their 30’s without a steep decline.
$10M for a (roughly) 20 HR power hitter, who can get on base a lot but doesn’t have much speed, who will probably not do that well his first season because of adjustments, plus could be risking us getting and paying for the downside of his career, and has missed a lot of games in the last 4 seasons.
So the question is does that sound like too much? I think so. I don’t want to spend $10M per season for up to 3 seasons on a question mark, particularly since the first year will most probably be a throw-away season of adjustments, so you have no idea going into the second year whether it was just adjustment or just a normal career downslide.
Then throw in that we already have a player ready to play RF, only needing a chance, in Nate Schierholtz, and I think it makes the suggestion even more untenable.
The throw in that we have other players who appear capable of playing the position adequately - true not as good perhaps as Fukudome, but they won’t cost us $10M of risk either - in Randy Winn, Fred Lewis, possibly Dan Ortmeier, John Bowker, perhaps even Eugenio Velez, and I don’t see why we even look at the guy.
Is he going to make us a contender by himself? No. Is he $10M per season better than the players we have available right now? No. Could he be a core component of the team going forward? I don’t think so. He also appears to be a bit injury prone the past few years, missing 100-120 games over the past 4 seasons, plus he missed a lot of playing time his second season as well, though I cannot tell if it was injury related or a manager’s decision, since his overall numbers look OK but not great.
If he was a 1B or 3B, then I could see the allure, we have a need there, particularly at 3B since I like Dan Ortmeier at 1B, at least to start the season. Iwamura would have been a much better sign, particularly if we would have signed him instead of Feliz last season. He has positional flexibility since he could move to 2B and did OK for the season, though I think he was injured too and missed a portion of the season.
03/11/2007 at 1:45 am Permalink
Here is a nice analysis of Fukudome that supports getting him: http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?p=500
I’m not convinced, mainly because anybody who says they have a totally accurate prediction of how well he would do in the majors is smoking something they should share. Any analysis of that type is fraught with areas of error that makes prediction dicey. I think there are ways that point out positives, like this site did, but as I noted above, there are serious concerns over how power, particularly HR power, translate over to the US, and thus any player coming over here whose value is based greatly on his HR power, is suspect to me.
03/11/2007 at 11:37 pm Permalink
Thanks for the link, I’m not sure how his HR power will translate but 20-30 HR’s would be excellent.
Fukudome has a lot of question marks but I think you might under estimate the Giants brass and their need to sell tickets. He’s a mixed bag in a sense of value because you’re not sure what you’ll get, but I think he would sell tickets in San Fran and that might be very appealing to the ownership. Mortgages to pay and all.
He only really makes sense if Randy Winn or Dave Roberts are moved, those are my pre-conditions to signing him.