The realization that Mr. Barry Lamar Bonds isn’t coming back has finally sunk in. And during that time of realization, I think I’ve only gotten more fearful of how Brian Sabean and Peter Magowan might try, and I emphasize try, to replace him.
When Sabean was extended for another two years I was very apprehensive. Back in July I wrote:
Sabean is a safe and easy choice even though he’s been out of public favor for the last few years. It’s a safe and predictable move for a organization that seems to be afraid of making drastic changes. He’s a known quantity. The news of Sabean’s extension in a lot of ways reminds me of the signing of Bruce Bochy. Both are safe and semi-yawn worthy. What the team needs is a new direction, a bold move, instead it feels like we are going to paddle again slowly in the same direction.
Bringing back Sabean was a safe move for this organization that’s felt like it’s been in quicksand for the last few years. Repeating the same formula over and over until it no longer worked anymore. However you want to justify it the teams slide – Bonds got hurt and the Giants would have been OK if he hadn’t – the Giants, as an organization, has been under prepared and unwilling to adapt.
Watching the news conference with Sabean and Magowan, who looked like two little boys who had just gotten in trouble and now have to fess up to what they’ve done, was hard to do. I thought Magowan in particular seemed short, snappy, and obtuse. Sure, he shouldn’t be happy that his biggest cash cow is walking out the door but some of the responses from Sabes and Pete just didn’t sit right at all. Some of the quotes they made were laughable. Magowan was asked a question from a reporter about if they felt that the Giants could turn their bad season around next year. Magowan starting listing teams that had a bad year last year and then went on to find success this year. He cited the Padres, Diamondbacks, etc. which are all fine teams until he named the Chicago White Sox! No lie. The. Chicago. White. Sox. The White Sox who are actually one of the few teams worse than the Giants – our winning percentage of .442 is actually somehow better than their’s of .436 – and they are close to getting passed by the Kansas City Royals for worst in the AL Central. Stuff like that really makes you wonder. Does Magowan even watch baseball? Or is it possible that he was thinking about when the White Sox were good? Two years ago. Two years people! Two! How far from baseball reality is this guy?
Sabean also said some things that made my skin squirm. He alluded to the fact that with so much money coming off the books – Bonds, Morris, Benitez, etc. – that the Giants would “have money to spend” which I understood as they would give the free agent market a look for a possible replacement for Barry. I’ve hammered this point home over the last few weeks so I’ll save you the time of re-linking you to anything I’ve written. The free agent market has nothing. Zilch, zip, nada. All it took was that one little seed to plant fear in my brain. “Is Brian Sabean really going to play the FA market this year? Seriously? Naaah. Really!?”
Why does the idea of Sabean playing the FA market, um, “concern” me? Firstly, there’s nothing on it. Torri Hunter has already turned down a $15M/5 deal from the Twins and is certain to cost a slab of dough for a guy that’s entering his age 32 year of his pro career. He makes Web Gem catches but his defense is very overrated – he’s only playing +14 runs over replacement this year defensively, which is nice but not elite defense like you might think he has. Dave Roberts has played +14 runs this year when using FRAR – and Hunter is 32. How many years would you be comfortable giving a 32 year old CF? It’s going to take 5 or more.
And then there is Andruw Jones, who up until this year has been a good offensive player in the NL. Jones is another guy who’s defense is a little overrated but until this year he could always hit. Who knows whats went wrong but his batting line of (.220/.311/.412) isn’t the performance you want to see when you’re giving a player a 5+ year deal. I can just see Brian Sabean salivating over one of these guys right now in a weak attempt to try and replace Bonds’ star factor and production.
Speaking of Bonds’ production. The Giants won’t be able to replace it short of signing A-Rod, which isn’t going to happen. For all the flack that Bonds takes for being bad defensively – hes barely a tick under replacement level this year – and being a clubhouse distraction, on an AB per AB basis, he’s still the best hitter in baseball. His EqA of .356 is tops among every other player in Major League Baseball this year. Bonds is still an offensive force when he plays. A-Rod’s EqA is still a fantastic .337 but it just shows you how well Bonds can still hit.
Secondly, Brian Sabean’s recent work in the FA market just isn’t very good. He offered big contracts to both Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano – both thankfully turned them down – and significant deals that were also turned down to Juan Pierre and Gary Mathews Jr. He signed Dave Roberts as a Pierre/Mathews consolation prize. Roberts really doesn’t have a place on this team anymore. He’s a great guy but chances are Fred Lewis could have most likely produced similarly while costing the league minimum. Rajai Davis, who was acquired in the Matt Morris trade, is so similar to Dave Roberts its ridiculous. The Giants are paying Roberts $6M a year over the next three years for nothing really. The less we talk about Barry Zito’s contract the better. And for all those that believe that Magowan was the reason we signed Zito, at the end of the day Brian Sabean is the GM of this team and the moves the team makes go on his resume.
The other odd development during this whole fiasco is, has Brian Sabean correctly identified the teams actual problems? Namely, the inability to hit. But, Sabean has of late gone off on this weird bullpen and “doing the little things” tangent. Grant at McCovey Chronicles has a great post on the absurdity of this line of thinking. In Brian Sabean’s head, the inability to lay down buts, hit to the right side of the field, and play “the right way” is what’s killing the Giants. The cellar- dweller offense? Don’t worry about it. The notion of “small-ball” is one of the weirdest ones in baseball. Guys like Darin Erstad, Scott Podsenik, and David Eckstein are applauded because “they play the game the right way” and they “hustle, play all out” but they are bad, unproductive major league ball players. I heard Kenny Williams, the GM of the Chicago White Sox, talking on the radio earlier this year. Waxing on and on about Darin Erstad and how if he had to, he’d take a roster full of Erstads because he “hustled, played all out, and plays the game the right way”. Ignore that Erstad is barely a replacement level player at this point. Or that his OPS hasn’t topped .700 in the last three years, at least he gets his uniform dirty!
Meanwhile, Barry Bonds is “lazy” and “unapproachable” maybe even “cold” by some but what he does blows away everyone else in the game. He hits. He produces. He helps his team. Which does far more than any “little thing” ever could.
Letting Bonds go to give playing time to a younger OF – Lewis or Schierholtz – makes sense. The Giants just aren’t going to contend in ’08, with or without Bonds. It would make sense to give that playing time to a younger player for developmental reasons. At the end of the year you could be surprised at the performance of a Fred Lewis or Nate Schierholtz but as much sense as it makes to do that, I’m very wary of what the Giants will actually do. I’ve got a fear that stadium debt and wanting to land another star player will force the Giants to downgrade from Bonds to someone else and attempt to delay rebuilding for another year. With the improvements the farm system is making the Giants could find that rebuilding for a year could put them in a much better position for ’09 onward than continuing with the old game plan.
Only time will tell if my fears are rational ones or not.