Solving Shortstop
Posted by Chris - 16/09/07 at 01:09 amQuestion: What do you do with your gold glove caliber shortstop who at the age of 40 can’t seem to hit for beans any more? Your farm system has had trouble producing positional talent that can play at the highest level and there appears to be no help in sight. The free agent market is a wasteland full of undesirable and overpriced players, of whom David Eckstein is probably the best available talent for what you need. Any time the word “best available talent” and “David Eckstein” are lumped together, you know that you’re in trouble.
Answer: Please, for the love of god don’t sign David Eckstein. I’m begging of you Brian, please!
The re-sign Omar Vizquel campaign may have already started within the Giants clubhouse. The Chron has a recent article where Kevin Correia lends his support to bringing back Omar. During the three years of his contract Omar has remained steady defensively, winning gold gloves in his first two years with the Giants. But the difference between Omar this year and his two previous years is that his offensive game has taken a nosedive in 2008. Omar is not the same hitter that he was in his first two years with the Giants when he OPS+’d 84 and 93 in 2005-2006. In 2008 his OPS+ is 56, the second lowest number it’s been since he debuted almost 19 years ago. Remember when dealing with OPS+ anything under 100 is below league average and anything over is over league average. Even though Omar was below league average as a hitter, his awesome defense contributed to his overall worth. But that’s when Omar was hitting around his career line of (.274/.340/.356). This year Omar is hitting (.240/.300/.296). Yes, his slugging is actually lower than his on base percentage. That’s not something you’re going to see everyday.
Even though his bat, what little of it he had, has disappeared completely, his defense is still very good. Judging by BP’s defensive metric FRAR - which stands for Fielding Runs Above Replacement, think of a replacement player as any AAA or waiver guy that a team can easily pluck up and plug into a position - Omar is actually a little better this year than his gold glove season of 2006. His FRAR this year is 23 runs, which means that by defense alone, Omar has saved the team 23 runs. In 2005 he saved 31 runs and in 2006 he saved 20 runs. The point is that Omar is still a very good defender. For comparisons sake, Troy Tulowitzki, probably the best defensive shortstop this year in the NL, has saved the Rockies 41 runs over what a replacement level shortstop could do.
At this point in his career Omar has turned into a all-field no-hit player when he used to be a all-field can-sorta-sometimes-hit-but-still-get-on-base player! But what are the other options that the Giants can pursue before they decide whether to bring back Vizquel?
Free Agent SS for 2008 with WARP-1 Scores Included
David Eckstein (1.6)
Cesar Izturis (0.2 w/ Pittsburgh -0.2 w/ Chicago) *
Ramon E Martinez (-0.5) *
Neifi Perez (-0.3)
Juan Uribe (3.1) *
Thanks to Cots Baseball Contracts for the free agent listing. The asterisk denotes that the player has a 2008 option which might or might not be picked up.
As you can see, even with Vizquel’s down year (1.7 WARP-1 Score), he’s still better than half these guys. If you’re unfamiliar with WARP-1, it takes into account both hitting and fielding to evaluate how many wins a player would contribute to a team over what a replacement level player would. Eckstein and Uribe have both played above replacement level while Izturis, Martinez, and Perez have actually been worse than a warm body that any team could claim from waivers or pull from their minor league depth. The White Sox are still considering picking up Uribe’s option or not so he could potentially be the best SS talent available on the market but one that I would be leery of. Uribe’s got a slick glove - FRAR of 34 runs - but his bat is just terrible - .219 EqA. The White Sox have been noted that they may want to move in a different direction and I don’t know their minor league system well enough, but I would figure that they would bring Uribe back mostly on the weakness of FA options.
Eckstein, I’m not a fan of either. Not only has his already weak glove dropped this year - FRAR of 1 - he’ll be turning 33 in January. It seems unfair to criticize him for turning just 33 when the Giants could very well bring back a 41 year old Omar to play short but Omar is a freak of nature and not many guys can play the position like he can at his age. Only Honus Wagner and Luke Appling have played 100 games at short stop at age 41 or greater. If Omar comes back in 2008 it’s realistic that he could play 100 games if he avoids the injury bug. Ozzie Smith just missed the 100 game cutoff for guys 41 or older in his final season of 1996. Smith played 83 games that year. Omar and Eck are basically opposites this year. Omar has the glove and Eckstein’s bat has played above replacement level but not his glove. Eckstein will require multiple years and Omar has already expressed interest to come back to SF and could come back on a 1-year deal.
Ramon E. Martinez isn’t an option that any sane club would bring in to play a starting position, even Brian Sabean isn’t that crazy. Neifi Perez was suspened for a 3rd positive test for a banned stimulant in August and earned himself an 80 game ban, he’ll be out for most of ‘08. If Perez ever puts on a Giants uniform again, I’ll eat my hat.
In-house Options
At the major league level the Giants don’t have much to fill in for shortstop. Rich Aurilia is no longer a starting shortstop and should only be used for emergencies. Kevin Frandsen has seen some time at short this year but he’s a 2B for a reason. In the games I’ve seen K-Fran play at short this year, he never really looked comfortable. I’d much rather hope that the Giants can dump off Durham over the offseason and let Frandsen get time at 2B in ‘08. Fransden had a FRAR of 0 this year for his brief time at SS, only 17 games at the position, which is a very small sample size. Chances are that if Fransden is given more time at short he’s going to play in the negative.
In the minors the guys that could play a future shortstop are too far away - Bocock and Burriss are both in A-ball - and the AAA guys that play short are utility men in training at best. Luis Figueroa, Ivan Ochoa, and Tomas de la Rosa all hit around .300 but probably won’t be considered. Out of the three, Figueroa, probably had the best season hitting (.302/.349/.397) but he’s a 33 year old minor league journeyman and those stats shouldn’t impress anyone in the hitter-friendly PCL. Ochoa was only 24 but this was his first season ever in his minor league career that he OPS’d over .700
Suddenly, Omar Vizquel on a 1-year deal isn’t looking like such a terrible choice. The free agent market or the Giants system has no clear cut shortstop favorite. The market is just plain lousy and the Giants minor league system is very uninspiring. Unless the Giants can find someone that can play shortstop through a trade, I think Omar is their best option. His bat has taken a huge dive this year but it’s good news that his glove is still playing. If Omar could take a paycut to say around $3M or less, the Giants should probably give him a look. Only bring him back for 1-year and if his glove leaves him the same way his bat has, then you either bench or cut him and throw a player like Figueroa or Ochoa out there for the remainder of the season.
September 18th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
I think this is one of the most interesting and most difficult of the off season decisions. And your analysis of it is pretty good. The fact is, barring a trade, there are no good - or even decent options. And a trade seems very unlikely. Next year has to be looked at in terms of what is on the horizon. That is, are there any good SSs coming on the FA market next year? Do we think any of our A ball prospects are going to be able to cut it (since we had nothing at AA)? SAnders and Bocock both disappointed. So we may be in trouble at SS for more than next year. And, as you have identified, I think the only viable potential guys are Omar, Ochoa, and Figueroa. Figueroa, who I think is 34, is only a short term, injury replacement. I haven’t seen Ochoa play, but I not he only got 179 ABs this year and, seemingly, couldn’t beat out Figueroa. But Martin at, OCG, says he was injured, so that may be the explanation. The problem with Omar is if you look carefully at his numbers, I think they show he has lost a lot of range. He can definitely handle everything that is hit at him, but he no longer is able to get balls hit up the middle. In other words, despite his shomanship and reputation, even as a defensive specialist, I think Omar is just a little above average. I actually think his bat will come back a little next year, say 255-260 BA. Even in a league without lots of great SSs, I don’t know if Omar is the best choice.
I think the Giants will not field a team of relatively unkowns. I wouldn’t mind letting Omar compete with Ochoa and Figueroa, but the reality of the game is, to have him, you have to commit the $3 or $4 mil - which means you are pretty much committing to him for the year. Since the front office has a better handle on the skill levels of Figueroa and Ochoa, I won’t be surprised to see them resign Omar
September 19th, 2007 at 12:21 am
Hey Frank,
If you’re wondering about SS free agents in 2008-2009 here’s the list from Cots:
Orlando Cabrera LAA
Alex Cintron CWS
Alex Cora BOS
Craig Counsell * MIL
Adam Everett HOU
Rafael Furcal LAD
Cristian Guzman WAS
Cesar Izturis PIT
Ramon Martinez LAD
Edgar Renteria * ATL
Juan Uribe CWS
Cabrera and Renteria will be both be in their early 30’s. Cabrera has always been overrated in my eyes, he’s only had one season above league average, this year.
Omar’s range isn’t as good as it used to be but its still pretty good. According to ESPN’s MLB stats page, Omar is 4th among NL shortstops in range factor. He scored 4.72 and Furcal (4.94) Wilson (4.94) and Tulowitzki (5.40) all scored higher. So Omar still has some range left even if its diminished some.
If Omar does come back, any bounce back he has with the bat will be greatly appreciated as he’s been one of the worst hitters in the senior circuit this year.
September 19th, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Given how poorly Omar has hit this year, unless he’s willing to take $1-2M (seems fair to me, that’s half what he was making and now he’s half the ballplayer with no offense), I would rather play Ochoa up here and see what he can do, because, if not then, then when? None of the FA’s for 2008-9 excite me either.
I will vouch that Ochoa was injured. I was checking Fresno’s roster for something and noticed that Ochoa was hitting well, so I checked on him (in my memory, I was wondering why he wasn’t brought up, but I can’t remember the exact reason why we would bring up someone, perhaps it was when Aurilia was DLed) and found out he was injured. Yes, it is his first year hitting well, and that coincides with hitting in the hitter’s league, PCL, so both are suspect. According to what I’ve read about him, he can “pick” it, so he’s a good shortstop defensively, his main question was his offense. But this is the age when hitters start figuring things out as well, if they ever figure it out, so perhaps he just had some growth.
And yes, nice analysis!
Lastly, when hitters lose it, they lose it, and Omar appears to have lost it since his OPS is so low and now he’s so old. The best hitters have a bounceback, like Ted Williams in his last season, but even great hitters like Mays and Aaron, when they declined, it was downhill from there, and as nice a hitter as Vizquel was, he wasn’t a great hitter.
I would not expect a bounceback from Vizquel, the best expectation, to me, is more of the same as this year (look at his monthly stats, none of them even beat his career OPS, none of them even beat 700 OPS, though at least they were high 600’s mid-season, but still it was downhill after that). I think the best we can hope for is .625-ish, and that’s bad.
September 19th, 2007 at 10:18 pm
Martin,
I’d love to get Omar for between $1-2M, I think he should sign closer to 2 than 3. If they resign Omar, maybe they can bring up a Ochoa or Figueroa to work under Omar? Maybe he could teach them a thing or two. From the trio of AAA guys I listed, Ochoa probably has the most upside because of his age. But that upside is still pretty small. I’ve tried to find some scouting reports on Ochoa but haven’t had much luck. If I find anything I’ll be sure to post it.
I’m not holding out much hope for Omar to hit better in 2008 but if one thing gives me a tiny glimmer of hope is that he’s had a low BABIP this year. His BABIP in 2007 is .259 compared to his career average of .298. His decline in BABIP could be related to his decline in hitting skills but he could also be unlucky this year.
November 7th, 2007 at 10:54 pm
[...] couple of months ago I wrote about the impending shortstop issue that the Giants would have to deal with. My conclusion was lukewarm [...]