Comments on: Solving Shortstop http://www.baycityball.com/2007/09/16/solving-shortstop/ A blog for San Francisco Giants fans Tue, 06 Jan 2009 15:06:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Bay City Ball | A San Francisco Giants Blog » Blog Archive » Omar Close to Signing http://www.baycityball.com/2007/09/16/solving-shortstop/comment-page-1/#comment-3188 Bay City Ball | A San Francisco Giants Blog » Blog Archive » Omar Close to Signing Thu, 08 Nov 2007 02:54:52 +0000 http://www.baycityball.com/2007/09/16/solving-shortstop/#comment-3188 [...] couple of months ago I wrote about the impending shortstop issue that the Giants would have to deal with. My conclusion was lukewarm [...] [...] couple of months ago I wrote about the impending shortstop issue that the Giants would have to deal with. My conclusion was lukewarm [...]

]]> By: Chris http://www.baycityball.com/2007/09/16/solving-shortstop/comment-page-1/#comment-1897 Chris Thu, 20 Sep 2007 02:18:13 +0000 http://www.baycityball.com/2007/09/16/solving-shortstop/#comment-1897 Martin, I'd love to get Omar for between $1-2M, I think he should sign closer to 2 than 3. If they resign Omar, maybe they can bring up a Ochoa or Figueroa to work under Omar? Maybe he could teach them a thing or two. From the trio of AAA guys I listed, Ochoa probably has the most upside because of his age. But that upside is still pretty small. I've tried to find some scouting reports on Ochoa but haven't had much luck. If I find anything I'll be sure to post it. I'm not holding out much hope for Omar to hit better in 2008 but if one thing gives me a tiny glimmer of hope is that he's had a low BABIP this year. His BABIP in 2007 is .259 compared to his career average of .298. His decline in BABIP could be related to his decline in hitting skills but he could also be unlucky this year. Martin,

I’d love to get Omar for between $1-2M, I think he should sign closer to 2 than 3. If they resign Omar, maybe they can bring up a Ochoa or Figueroa to work under Omar? Maybe he could teach them a thing or two. From the trio of AAA guys I listed, Ochoa probably has the most upside because of his age. But that upside is still pretty small. I’ve tried to find some scouting reports on Ochoa but haven’t had much luck. If I find anything I’ll be sure to post it.

I’m not holding out much hope for Omar to hit better in 2008 but if one thing gives me a tiny glimmer of hope is that he’s had a low BABIP this year. His BABIP in 2007 is .259 compared to his career average of .298. His decline in BABIP could be related to his decline in hitting skills but he could also be unlucky this year.

]]> By: obsessivegiantscompulsive http://www.baycityball.com/2007/09/16/solving-shortstop/comment-page-1/#comment-1892 obsessivegiantscompulsive Thu, 20 Sep 2007 00:03:18 +0000 http://www.baycityball.com/2007/09/16/solving-shortstop/#comment-1892 Given how poorly Omar has hit this year, unless he's willing to take $1-2M (seems fair to me, that's half what he was making and now he's half the ballplayer with no offense), I would rather play Ochoa up here and see what he can do, because, if not then, then when? None of the FA's for 2008-9 excite me either. I will vouch that Ochoa was injured. I was checking Fresno's roster for something and noticed that Ochoa was hitting well, so I checked on him (in my memory, I was wondering why he wasn't brought up, but I can't remember the exact reason why we would bring up someone, perhaps it was when Aurilia was DLed) and found out he was injured. Yes, it is his first year hitting well, and that coincides with hitting in the hitter's league, PCL, so both are suspect. According to what I've read about him, he can "pick" it, so he's a good shortstop defensively, his main question was his offense. But this is the age when hitters start figuring things out as well, if they ever figure it out, so perhaps he just had some growth. And yes, nice analysis! Lastly, when hitters lose it, they lose it, and Omar appears to have lost it since his OPS is so low and now he's so old. The best hitters have a bounceback, like Ted Williams in his last season, but even great hitters like Mays and Aaron, when they declined, it was downhill from there, and as nice a hitter as Vizquel was, he wasn't a great hitter. I would not expect a bounceback from Vizquel, the best expectation, to me, is more of the same as this year (look at his monthly stats, none of them even beat his career OPS, none of them even beat 700 OPS, though at least they were high 600's mid-season, but still it was downhill after that). I think the best we can hope for is .625-ish, and that's bad. Given how poorly Omar has hit this year, unless he’s willing to take $1-2M (seems fair to me, that’s half what he was making and now he’s half the ballplayer with no offense), I would rather play Ochoa up here and see what he can do, because, if not then, then when? None of the FA’s for 2008-9 excite me either.

I will vouch that Ochoa was injured. I was checking Fresno’s roster for something and noticed that Ochoa was hitting well, so I checked on him (in my memory, I was wondering why he wasn’t brought up, but I can’t remember the exact reason why we would bring up someone, perhaps it was when Aurilia was DLed) and found out he was injured. Yes, it is his first year hitting well, and that coincides with hitting in the hitter’s league, PCL, so both are suspect. According to what I’ve read about him, he can “pick” it, so he’s a good shortstop defensively, his main question was his offense. But this is the age when hitters start figuring things out as well, if they ever figure it out, so perhaps he just had some growth.

And yes, nice analysis!

Lastly, when hitters lose it, they lose it, and Omar appears to have lost it since his OPS is so low and now he’s so old. The best hitters have a bounceback, like Ted Williams in his last season, but even great hitters like Mays and Aaron, when they declined, it was downhill from there, and as nice a hitter as Vizquel was, he wasn’t a great hitter.

I would not expect a bounceback from Vizquel, the best expectation, to me, is more of the same as this year (look at his monthly stats, none of them even beat his career OPS, none of them even beat 700 OPS, though at least they were high 600’s mid-season, but still it was downhill after that). I think the best we can hope for is .625-ish, and that’s bad.

]]> By: Chris http://www.baycityball.com/2007/09/16/solving-shortstop/comment-page-1/#comment-1852 Chris Wed, 19 Sep 2007 04:21:31 +0000 http://www.baycityball.com/2007/09/16/solving-shortstop/#comment-1852 Hey Frank, If you're wondering about SS free agents in 2008-2009 here's the list from Cots: Orlando Cabrera LAA Alex Cintron CWS Alex Cora BOS Craig Counsell * MIL Adam Everett HOU Rafael Furcal LAD Cristian Guzman WAS Cesar Izturis PIT Ramon Martinez LAD Edgar Renteria * ATL Juan Uribe CWS Cabrera and Renteria will be both be in their early 30's. Cabrera has always been overrated in my eyes, he's only had one season above league average, this year. Omar's range isn't as good as it used to be but its still pretty good. According to ESPN's MLB stats page, Omar is 4th among NL shortstops in <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=8&season=2007&seasonType=2&split=82&sortOrder=true&sortColumn=rangeFactor" rel="nofollow">range factor</a>. He scored 4.72 and Furcal (4.94) Wilson (4.94) and Tulowitzki (5.40) all scored higher. So Omar still has some range left even if its diminished some. If Omar does come back, any bounce back he has with the bat will be greatly appreciated as he's been one of the worst hitters in the senior circuit this year. Hey Frank,

If you’re wondering about SS free agents in 2008-2009 here’s the list from Cots:

Orlando Cabrera LAA
Alex Cintron CWS
Alex Cora BOS
Craig Counsell * MIL
Adam Everett HOU
Rafael Furcal LAD
Cristian Guzman WAS
Cesar Izturis PIT
Ramon Martinez LAD
Edgar Renteria * ATL
Juan Uribe CWS

Cabrera and Renteria will be both be in their early 30’s. Cabrera has always been overrated in my eyes, he’s only had one season above league average, this year.

Omar’s range isn’t as good as it used to be but its still pretty good. According to ESPN’s MLB stats page, Omar is 4th among NL shortstops in range factor. He scored 4.72 and Furcal (4.94) Wilson (4.94) and Tulowitzki (5.40) all scored higher. So Omar still has some range left even if its diminished some.

If Omar does come back, any bounce back he has with the bat will be greatly appreciated as he’s been one of the worst hitters in the senior circuit this year.

]]> By: fttts http://www.baycityball.com/2007/09/16/solving-shortstop/comment-page-1/#comment-1836 fttts Tue, 18 Sep 2007 20:47:20 +0000 http://www.baycityball.com/2007/09/16/solving-shortstop/#comment-1836 I think this is one of the most interesting and most difficult of the off season decisions. And your analysis of it is pretty good. The fact is, barring a trade, there are no good - or even decent options. And a trade seems very unlikely. Next year has to be looked at in terms of what is on the horizon. That is, are there any good SSs coming on the FA market next year? Do we think any of our A ball prospects are going to be able to cut it (since we had nothing at AA)? SAnders and Bocock both disappointed. So we may be in trouble at SS for more than next year. And, as you have identified, I think the only viable potential guys are Omar, Ochoa, and Figueroa. Figueroa, who I think is 34, is only a short term, injury replacement. I haven't seen Ochoa play, but I not he only got 179 ABs this year and, seemingly, couldn't beat out Figueroa. But Martin at, OCG, says he was injured, so that may be the explanation. The problem with Omar is if you look carefully at his numbers, I think they show he has lost a lot of range. He can definitely handle everything that is hit at him, but he no longer is able to get balls hit up the middle. In other words, despite his shomanship and reputation, even as a defensive specialist, I think Omar is just a little above average. I actually think his bat will come back a little next year, say 255-260 BA. Even in a league without lots of great SSs, I don't know if Omar is the best choice. I think the Giants will not field a team of relatively unkowns. I wouldn't mind letting Omar compete with Ochoa and Figueroa, but the reality of the game is, to have him, you have to commit the $3 or $4 mil - which means you are pretty much committing to him for the year. Since the front office has a better handle on the skill levels of Figueroa and Ochoa, I won't be surprised to see them resign Omar I think this is one of the most interesting and most difficult of the off season decisions. And your analysis of it is pretty good. The fact is, barring a trade, there are no good - or even decent options. And a trade seems very unlikely. Next year has to be looked at in terms of what is on the horizon. That is, are there any good SSs coming on the FA market next year? Do we think any of our A ball prospects are going to be able to cut it (since we had nothing at AA)? SAnders and Bocock both disappointed. So we may be in trouble at SS for more than next year. And, as you have identified, I think the only viable potential guys are Omar, Ochoa, and Figueroa. Figueroa, who I think is 34, is only a short term, injury replacement. I haven’t seen Ochoa play, but I not he only got 179 ABs this year and, seemingly, couldn’t beat out Figueroa. But Martin at, OCG, says he was injured, so that may be the explanation. The problem with Omar is if you look carefully at his numbers, I think they show he has lost a lot of range. He can definitely handle everything that is hit at him, but he no longer is able to get balls hit up the middle. In other words, despite his shomanship and reputation, even as a defensive specialist, I think Omar is just a little above average. I actually think his bat will come back a little next year, say 255-260 BA. Even in a league without lots of great SSs, I don’t know if Omar is the best choice.
I think the Giants will not field a team of relatively unkowns. I wouldn’t mind letting Omar compete with Ochoa and Figueroa, but the reality of the game is, to have him, you have to commit the $3 or $4 mil - which means you are pretty much committing to him for the year. Since the front office has a better handle on the skill levels of Figueroa and Ochoa, I won’t be surprised to see them resign Omar

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