The Giants just aren’t very good. It’s no exercise in logic either to come up with that statement. The results are right in our faces. The team continues to struggle and look bad doing it, not that you can look good struggling but every time I see the Giants squander a close game situation, I hear a deflating noise in the background. The air being let out of this team, slowly, but surely, deflating.
Not only is watching a team struggle no fun but watching old guys struggle is even more painful. Guys on the last legs of their careers (Vizquel, Aurilia, Durham) trying to grind out whatever they have left and bring it to the playing field to only come up short time and time again. I don’t necessarily think that Omar, Richie, and Ray are done, finito, stick-a-fork in ‘em but signs of life are weak. A common rallying point among fans is that “I’d rather watch a bunch of young guys struggle than old guys”. That phrase is something that I can agree on because it plants the tiny seeds of hope. The veterans are probably only going to get worse or at the bare minimum they are a known quantity. The younger guys still have promise on their side, which is refreshing. Playing the “kids” doesn’t always work out so well (Todd Linden) but at this point in the season what else do we have to lose? I would be thrilled to see Frandsen, Schierholtz, Lewis, Ortmeier, and whoever else get increased playing time.
I also hope that come trading time we’re into full fledged seller mode, complete with matching socks and pants, and that Sabean will spin off some of the older parts for the future of this team. That might be asking a lot but I think it needs to be done. I wrote a couple of posts ago that I doubted that anyone could see this team as a contender. That doubt has only increased as the Giants continue to tailspin, dropping 17 out of their last 23 games. The offense is back to the dumps (ranking 15th in the NL by runs and near the bottom in almost every other statistical category) and I get the feeling that Morris and Lowry are due to start regressing to career norms soon.
Briefly, back to the hitting, I was looking over some numbers this morning and I was shocked to actually see how bad our offense has been. I knew it was bad but the numbers really drive the point home. I was looking through the VORP’s of NL players by position that had at least 200 PAs. Here’s what I found for the Giants infield.
Infield Rank by VORP (200 PAs)
Only one word can describe the infield, disastrous, two of the five position players (SS and 1B) are actually producing negative VORPs and another two positions (3B and 2B) are toeing the line pretty closely. The only bright spot of the infield has been Bengie Molina’s performance. He only ranks behind Russell Martin as the top catcher in the senior circuit. Bengie’s solid performance can’t make up for the entire suckitiude of the rest of the infield. Let’s take a look at the outfield.
Outfield Rank by VORP (200 PAs)
It’s no surprise that Bonds is once again the Giants best hitter. Any one who criticizes Bonds as a problem for the Giants’ offense is crazy. He’s still the best hitter on the team and one of the best hitters in baseball. Winn has performed decently but you would ideally like to see more production out of a corner OF. Roberts got an asterick because of his injury, I had to knock down the qualifier to 125 PAs to get him in the stats. So you’ve got one of the greatest hitters of all time still performing pretty well, a “OK” corner OF, and a CF who has been injured for a good part of the season. I can’t be too critical of Roberts because of his injury and we don’t know his true level of performance yet. Bonds has been great and Winn has been OK.
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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
So, now that we are throughly depressed by the numbers, we need to figure out who has the most trade value to the Giants. I’ve put together a top 5 trade list for the Giants of who I think could be traded this year during the dead line.
1. LHP Noah Lowry – I think of any Giant on the team, Lowry has the most trade value. He’s young, left handed, and has had success already at the major league level. He’s signed to a very affordable contract that any team could take on if they desired him. A left handed average pitcher has great value in todays market and Noah is exactly that. Sabean has the advantage of being able to sit on Lowry this year and if no offers wow him, then he can just bring Lowry back next year.
I’m not thrilled with Noah’s peripherals and I think that if he’s ever to be moved this would be the time to do it. Selling when value is the highest is key. If Lowry does get moved for hitting, someone like a Jonathan Sanchez could take his spot in the rotation. If Lowry doesn’t get traded, it’s not the end of the world either. The Giants just need him to eat innings and be a back of the rotation starter which I think he can do, even though, like I said, his peripherals don’t thrill me.
2. RHP Matt Morris - Teams are always looking for pitching during the trading dead line and Morris could have value to a team needing rotation help. He’s a grizzled innings eater that has found success this year. Morris probably isn’t as tradeable as Lowry because of his age and contract (which has one more year after the 2007 season) but he could be a quick fix for a team needing pitching help. I think that one of Morris or Lowry will get moved, but not both. The Giants don’t have enough arms ready to step into the rotation for Sabean to move both Noah and Matt.
This is another great case of selling high. Morris has pitched solid this year but walks and the lack of K’s are a little concerning. Still, Morris could be a great addition to a team needing some stability in their rotation.
3. 1B/OF Ryan Klesko - Klesko could provide a cheap solution to a team struggling to hit RHP. This year Klesko has hit (.284/.376/.422) when facing righties. He’s only signed for this year making him attractive for a playoff run. He could be platooned at a position or even used as a bench player.
4. 3B Pedro Feliz – Yes, Pedro Feliz is truly awful and you might be asking yourself which dope of a GM would actually trade for this guy? Feliz could entice a GM that over values the HR and other stats like RBIs. He can play a lot of positions and is a top defender at third base. I could see someone picking up Feliz to take on a bench/utility role, which I think is his strongest ability. Stranger things have happened.
5. SS Omar Vizquel – For one thing, as much as I love Omar, I’m thankful that we didn’t give him the extension he was looking for before the season. Omar has looked lost at the plate this year but his D is still strong. A team with a floundering SS situation (Boston?) might take a shot with someone like Omar. He could also go to a team as a late innings defensive replacement.
I would like to see a trade open up a spot in the infield for Kevin Frandsen to get regular playing time. Hopefully, by the end of the season the Giants will be starting as many young players as they can, to see what they have for the next year. I’ve heard some call this year a “Stealth Rebuild” slowly adding in younger players around veterans. The hardest part will be finding the younger OF guys playing time, the OF is already crowded and it seems that most of our MLB ready players are outfielders. But then again, this is Brian Sabean would hasn’t had to rebuild since he took the reigns over and the “Stealth Rebuild” could turn into another “No Rebuild”.
The common criticism of rebuilding is that the casual fan will stop coming to the ballpark to watch a team that’s in a rebuild. I can’t speak for the common fan but I know that I would gladly head out to the park to watch younger players get a shot. The sad thing is that I’m probably in the minority in that regard and I wonder how much of the fan base will dry up once Bonds leaves for good?
Comment Starter: Who gets moved? Or, will the Giants even attempt a rebuild of any sort? And honestly, would you as a fan, support a rebuild? (ie: keep attending home games)
First, I think it is just too easy to say “play the kids.” If they are performing like this team and winning 5 out of 23, “fans” will start dumping trash on the field. Fans want to see decent, if not scintillating, baseball. It doesn’t matter if it is Sweeney or Frandsen, if a run down/pick off is botched – especially if it is a nightly occurence, people will be angry.
Second, I don’t pretend to know what will happen next. I’ve heard a lot of descriptions of what we need, but I haven’t heard too many names. And I haven’t heard that they’re available. Targets, sure, but bloggers like to ID targets then trash Sabean when the targets don’t come home. And the big leagues are full of “prospects” spectacularly falling on their asses (Lincecum, Linden, Niekro, Kouzmanoff, Loney, Betemit, Pie, Milledge…). The tear down the team and start over philosophy is far from guaranteed. See Pittsburg, KC. And when it does work, it typically takes YEARS. (See OGC’s log on the average length of a rebuild).
I do subscribe to the theory that the rebuild has started and is well under way. Sabean has completely rebuilt the pitching staff. We are deep in starters (Zito, Cain, Lowry, Morris, Lincecum, Sanchez, Ortiz, Blackley, Begg, Kinney (or Palmer, I get them confused), with more on the way. We also have an outstanding (ranked 4th in NL) pen. As good as SD or LA? NO, but damned good and with depth. I hope he doesn’t reach into the FA market at all for RPs, even tho we do not yet have a proven, reliable closer.
While there will be some trades of position players, and I think each of them (except Aurilia, unless he recovers) has some value. I would not be at all surprised if Sabean trades off some veterans IF he can get a player who is expected to play a position in ’08 or ’09. I do not know how much is coming out of the minors for ’08, but he has done an outstanding job of IDing the type of middle of the diamond player he wants for the NL west and ATT and they are close. He has a 2b in Conn, who couls be up in ’08 or ’09. He has several OFs (Schierholtz, Ort, Lewis, Timpner, Horwitz [I've left out one or two).
He has Richardson coming. Actually, he is positioned to fill SS, CF and possibly 2b and RF from the minors. These players are fast, defensively outstanding OBP guys. It is true he does not have what is generally regarded as a star, the next Pujols or Bonds. But he is positioned to put a young, reliable, inexpensive SP and BP on the field along with middle of the diamond players and half of his bench. This means he only needs, thru trade or FA 4 fairly high producing position players. Some of those are already on the roster.
It remains to be seen who he keeps. But he has lots of options.
C: set, Molina
1b: bring in or go with a Klesko/_____ platoon
2b: Durham or Velez (in Conn) [I think Frandsen is a backup]
3b: Reliz has demonstrated he is exceptional defensively. He is also improving at the plate. If the improvement continues, he could be back. Otherwise, this is a prime spot to fill, as is
SS: Omar won’t be back and Frandsen is not a SS. Our SS are actually at low A, a ways away. Maybe they put Velez at SS; maybe they sign A-Rod. They have to get big time production out of one of these positions
LF: Barry could be back as a glorified 4th OF and Schierholtz could be the nominal LF. They could also look for a big bat here, but they want better D than Barry provides, so I don’t think it will be Dunn.
CF/RF: They could keep both Roberts and Winn as they are the type of players Sabean wants for the huge ATT OF. He could trade one, but I think at least one is back for next year. If they could find a huge bat (for RF), any of Roberts, Winn, or Lewis could platoon in CF.
I think this is pretty exciting. These last 23 games – actually, since early May, have been excruciating. But I think Sabean is far ahead of the bloggers as far as preparing for next year. It is just not as easy as roto league.
Hey Frank,
I agree that just “playing the kids” isn’t a cure all and has the ability to suck too. I noted that with Todd Linden as a example, sometimes the kids can perform just as bad as the veterans. This is why it’s always been important to draft young players and not punt picks for Michael Tucker!
I have mixed feelings on the “Stealth Rebuild” and the notion that Sabean has “totally rebuilt the staff”. I think it’s a combination of having a good draft pick (Cain) move through the system and make it to the majors. Luck out with the Lincecum pick because he was almost major league ready when he was picked. And over paying way too much for Zito. The rotation does look different from 2-3 years ago but I think this team panicked some with the loss of Schmidt that led them to pay way too much for Zito. The Morris signing is still pretty “meh” but he’s pitched well this year after looking awful last year. But regardless of how it happened, the rotation looks alright for now.
I like the teams depth of MI talent but most of it is still a bit away from the majors. It mostly seems to be in A+/AA but it is there. Hopefully Sanders, Schoop, Velez, Burris, etc. can all take development steps forward this year.
And I disagree that rebuilding a team will take forever, some of the examples used to portray rebuilding in a negative light are from organizations who don’t have the strongest track records as being quality organizations. KC and Pittsburgh aren’t exactly the top of my list when I think about quality, smart, front offices. Look at what the Marlins did in 2005-2006. Because of salary constrictions, they dumped several of their high priced players (Mike Lowell, Luis Castillo, Carlos Delgado, etc) for young talent. You can make the argument that these players are better than anything that the Giants currently have, and that’s partially true, but it shows that rebuilding can be done.
The Marlins had a strong year in 2006, where they eventually faded but they have a young team that is exciting to watch and a big part of that team is made up of a rebuild.
And Sabean may be ahead of the “bloggers” but I don’t agree with keep giving him the benefit of the doubt after 2 straight losing seasons, soon the be 3. He’s been a great GM for the Giants during his tenure and I appreciate that but I wonder if it’s time for some new blood? And for the record, I don’t play Roto at all.