Lineup Thoughts, Moving Bonds

Published by on May 16, 2007 | 4 Responses

Something has been bugging me for the past couple of weeks when I watch the Giants play. Why in the hell is Aurilia still batting 3rd? His production from the 3-hole has been absolutely killing the Giants lately. Aurilia had a nice start to the season but he’s cooled off considerably since. Currently Rich is hitting (.256/.301/.376) and in May he’s hitting (.179/.256/.282) is this the guy you want driving in runs?

Ranking NL first basemen with 100 PAs by VORP, Rich comes in at number #13 with a VORP of 0. Only the terrible starts of Adam Laroche and Carlos Delgado prevent Aurilia from being the worst first basemen in the NL. By far, Barry Bonds is the Giants best hitter and it no longer makes any sense to bat him cleanup.

This is why I’m proposing that Bochy move Bonds back into the 3-spot. Hitting Aurilia third only hurts the Giants chances of having Bonds come to the plate in the first inning. If Bonds were to move back to #3 he would get more ABs (which is what you want from your best hitter, to give him the most opportunities). I didn’t like when Bochy first moved Bonds back to cleanup and I hope that he would be open to moving Bonds again.

Here’s my projected lineup:

  1. Randy Winn
  2. Omar Vizquel (starting to hit, .346 OBP in May)
  3. Barry Bonds
  4. Ray Durham
  5. Bengie Molina
  6. Fred Lewis
  7. Ryan Klesko / Rich Aruilia
  8. Pedro Feliz
  9. Pitcher Spot

Of course, when Roberts comes off the DL, you can move him back into the leadoff spot and move Winn appropriately. I think Lewis could also hit #2 if Omar’s May resurgence turns out to be a mirage. First base will most likely be a problem all year long but I wonder why Klesko hasn’t gotten more starts against RHP? I’m no huge Klesko supporter but Aurilia has just been terrible lately.

Comment Starter: Thoughts? Like the idea of moving Bonds again or not? And if not, what’s your lineup look like?

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Update: Left hander Ricardo Rincon has torn his ACL and will be out for the year. Rincon wasn’t anything more than AAA insurance in case Kline, Taschner, or Sanchez flame-out and the Giants needed a lefty in a pinch. Misch should definitely move into the position to be the next lefty that the Giants call up if they need a southpaw.

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obsessivegiantscompu
obsessivegiantscompu

Batting Bonds 2nd is counter-intuitive, just like batting pitchers 8th so that you can put a better hitter 9th to lead into the top of the offense, particularly if you hit Bonds 2nd. I've seen a study that says that the 2nd batter is the spot to put your best hitter, using some sort of Markovian chain analysis. But the latest thought on that is the work I noted above, plus Pankin of SABR did some analysis on lineup that is posted somewhere on Net.

fttts
fttts

First, confidence is an important factor and, I think, one important and valid reason that you don't drop a guy after a couple of bad games. Yes, Aurilia has had more than a couple. And Klesko is starting. And Feliz, who has heated up (relatively) is playing more, too. I think Bochy is trying to get to know these guys, as veterans, with established career norms, they have earned the right to slump on occassion and to work out of their slump. I happen to like Klesko in the 3 hole - because of his high OBP (which is even more important hitting in front of Bonds) and because of his power potential. He is another guy who I think you have to give many ABs to before you can draw any reasonable conclusions about his power - particularly since he missed all of last year. I also heard he is outhitting Barry in BP. That is a good sign, and, I think, an indication that the power will come. I do think constructing the lineup without Roberts is hard. And it is hard to quarrel with Bochy's solution. As an aside, I personally think Barry should hit 2nd. But it ain't gonna happen and I'm not going to take the position I'm smarter than everyone in Giants management. So, against RH starter: (this is really the easier lineup LH starter: Winn Durham Lewis Ortmeier Klesko Winn Bonds Bonds Durham Molina Molina Aurilia Feliz Feliz (or Aurilia) Omar Omar And against LH starter, when Frandsen starts, I'd have him bat 6th, in front of Feliz or 7th in back of Aurilia.

obsessivegiantscompu
obsessivegiantscompu

Oh, also, if Klesko is able to keep his OBP high, I would be OK with him batting 3rd on days against RHP.

obsessivegiantscompu
obsessivegiantscompu

A regression study of lineup position and OBP and SLG found that the #3 position does not really add much to the offense - putting Bonds there basically negates the advantage of his superior stats, as the lousy offense we had early in the season when Bonds was batting there illustrated. Check out Baseball Musing's lineup evaluator tool to learn more about it, there are links there to the original research and his tool helps you calc the best lineup (unfortunately, most of the top ones list Vizquel batting #9 and the pitcher 8th). If you are handy with the spreadsheet, you can take the numbers in the study and create your own lineup calculator (pretty simple). My original idea, which I still think is good, is to put Randy Winn in the #3 spot. He gets on base at a good rate, during his career, plus then you have 3 speedy runners ahead of Bonds, Roberts, Vizquel, Winn, plus Winn has some power to drive in from the 3-hole. Bonds 4th, then Durham, and I would put Molina 6th, he has earned that, I think. Then you got 1B batting 7th and Feliz batting 8th. Klesko had not been seeing much play at 1B because he didn't hit that well in April plus still hasn't really hit for power, which is the lineup position he would normally occupy. He has started hitting better in May (plus Aurilia poorly) and that's why we are starting to see more of him playing at 1B.