The Value of Noah?
Posted by Chris - 06/05/07 at 03:05 pmAnother bat. More lumber. Getting another hitter. This is probably the #1 item atop most fans wish list. Hitting has picked up lately but adding another strong bat to the lineup would make things look nicer. Much nicer. Bonds is still playing out of his gourd and you hope that he can hold up for the duration of the entire season. A couple of weeks ago the Giants ranked dead last in the NL in runs scored. As of today, they’ve leapfrogged all the way up to the #11 spot.
With Lincecum getting the call for tonights game, the Giants have a strength that they can deal from to acquire a hitter. That strength being pitching. Peter Gammons writes in his blog:
With Tim Lincecum coming up and Jonathan Sanchez in the shadows, the Giants are discussing shopping a starting pitcher to get a young position player. They would like Melky Cabrera, but it is doubtful the Yankees would consider Cabrera for Noah Lowry.
Stop the dream bus, I want off. Melky Cabrera is a nice young player but I have some doubts about him. What the Giants need is a solid bat to hit somewhere around Bonds and Cabrera is certainly not that. He’s basically a 4th OF at this point in his career with a lot of youth and maybe some promise.
Melky Cabrera was signed as a undrafted free agent by the Yankees in 2001 out of the Dominican Republic. His career minor league numbers are (.294/.347/.422). He had a breakout year in 2006 in which he hit (.280/.360/.391). Cabrera is a patient linedrive hitter with gap power. What’s not to like?
- For a corner outfielder, he doesn’t really hit enough. Think Randy Winn here. To have value on the Giants he would have to play centerfield, where Dave Roberts is already installed. Some think that Cabrera is stretched playing center, in 2006 he had a FRAA of 0 while playing CF. He’s a much better fielder in the corners, posting a FRAA of 6 in LF and 0 in RF. For those who aren’t familiar with FRAA, a 0 means that you are a average fielder. Scores above or under 0 mean that you are above average or below average respectively.
- Small sample size aside but so far this year Melky has struggled. His line for 2007 to this point is (.232/.288/.263). Chances are that he’ll improve on that line, as it’s still early in the season, but what if he doesn’t?
- I think that trading Lowry for Melky is selling low. In Melky’s successful 2006 he OPS+’d 100. Which meant that he was exactly league average. Lowry is signed to a cheap contract, is left handed, and if he can continue on his 2005 success he’ll be a bargain. In 2005 Lowry posted a ERA+ of 110, meaning that he was slightly better than a league average pitcher. This point is predicated on the notion that Lowry’s decline in ‘06 was because of a oblique strain and not a decline in “stuff”.
Melky is a good young player that could potentially turn into a Bobby Abreu type player in a few years. Unfortunately, the Giants don’t have time to wait around to see if he develops. The team needs a solid, already established bat, that can hit in the middle part of the order around Bonds. Lowry is the strongest trading chip that Sabean currently has and should be spent wisely.
May 6th, 2007 at 8:29 pm
But that leads to an Alou or Hillenbrand type acquisition. Do we really want to give up Lowry for a 1/2 year rental?
May 6th, 2007 at 9:08 pm
Hey Frank,
When I say “established” I don’t necessarily mean a veteran. I’m looking more at someone who either in the majors, or minors (a very strong prospect with a track record) that’s will produce at more than just “league average” for their position.
Is that foolish of me? Maybe so, and I’m not even sure who the Giants could add right now. A popular fantasy of most is Adam Dunn, which I don’t think will ever happen.
Adding a Melky Cabrera isn’t going to boost the offense and I have no idea where they would stick him. I guess this post is more rhetorical than anything, we need a bat but I’m not sure who right now. In 4 years Melky could be a good hitter but can the Giants wait that long? Is it worth the risk of trading Lowry?
I’m just not tremendously enamored with Cabrera’s upside. His swing is punchy and should hit line drives but a middle of the order hitter he is not. Once again, maybe in 4 years but I have big doubts that even then will he hit enough. I think this a example of good effort (looking for a young hitter) but wrong player.
May 7th, 2007 at 12:24 pm
My point, which is not made very clearly, is that other teams are not going to trade the guys that can help us now and help us in the future. By and large, if you want help for the stretch drive, you give up youth and promise and in return get salary and pending free agency. (eg, Shea Hillenbrand)
I think, at this point, or for this season, getting a bat for pitching is a very difficult proposition. Teams trading are trading for the future, so we’re not getting any of Tampa’s young hitter. Lastings Milledge? I think the Mets can do better than Lowry and Sanchez.
While more offense is always fun and desireable, I am not sure, even if it available, it is necessary. Even with our hrrible start, we are now 2nd in the division in runs scored. AFTER our 8 game win streak, we’ve scored runs at a 5.4 runs / game rate
And if we bring in someone, where will they play? It won’t be LF or RF. Winnis doing very well and he’s a fixture in RF now. It won’t be C, 2b, or SS, even tho Omar has had such a terrible start (which he is showing signs of getting out of). That leaves 2 positions. Do you really think we are going to do better than Klesko (306 BA)/Aurilia (274 BA)? Every one complains about Feliz - and his ABs are painful to watch. But he has brought his BA up from 100 something to 237. Plus good D (remember the DP where he catches the line drive and dives to 3b to double off the runn within the last 2 weeks?). In MLB there are currently 43 3b with more than 20 ABs. Feliz ranks 21 in BA, 12 in SLG, 4 in HR, 9 in RBI. True, he is 31 in OBP, but I don’t think his failure to get walks is what is hurting this team. Bringing in someone is always a risk. Uprooting them, having to find a place to live, maybe leaving family behind, trying to blend in in a new clubhouse, and raisded expectations are all perils. See: Hillenbrand, Ponson, Ledee - and dozens of other examples. True, some team will catch lightening in a bottle, but it is difficult and the cost is usually high.
May 7th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
Frank,
I disagree that a team won’t make a trade with us that could help us out. I need to do the research but there has to be a team out there with offense to spare and is in need of pitching?
Personally, I would like to see an upgrade at either 1B, 3B, or maybe even a corner OF spot. Maybe someone that could take on the 4th OF duties that Linden has had to this point. Winn can play CF and Roberts gets a lot of days off so I think you could find a good hitter at-bats.
I’m not huge on Feliz but he’s been “OK” so far. I do think that Bochy is handling Feliz better than Alou has, not starting him every game regardless of how he’s doing, etc. I think Feliz is the type of player that will play better when he’s used more like a utility guy than a starter.
Looking at the stats this year for third basemen has actually surprised me with Feliz. He’s ranked 12th in VORP for all major league third basemen right now, with a minimum of 75 plate appearances, with a score of (2.9). That’s not great by any means but he’s not in the negative like he was last year.
I still think the Giants need a bat to augment the offense. I’d love to get a young hitter or someone at least under 30 that can provide above league average offense for their position. I’ll keep dreaming about Adam Dunn I suppose.
May 7th, 2007 at 10:31 pm
Where would you put him and his concrete glove. And why do you think he is such an upgrade that we get rid of Lowry for him? Or Lowry and Sanchez?
May 8th, 2007 at 6:29 am
Dunn would have to play first if he was on the Giants. He’s definitely a bad defender in LF. In 2006 his FRAA was -15, Bonds’ was -6. When the Reds tried to move him to 1B a couple of years ago he refused because he wanted to stay in LF. Hopefully if he joined a new team he would be more flexible and play first, the least demanding position defensively.
He had a slight down year in 2006, but his 2004 + 2005 years were excellent. In 2005 he was the 4th best LF in all of baseball in terms of VORP. In 2004 he was 3rd best. He’s 27 this year and should be at the top of his physical game and I don’t see why he can’t improve on his down year last year. In his down year he was 15th best. In 2006 he was worth around 3-4 wins and PECOTA thinks he can rebound back to around 5-6 wins for 2007. They’ve projected him with a line of (.265/.386/.568), if he hits his 75% projection, he’s worth 7 wins.
Dunn can hit for power and get on base. If he goes back to his 2004-2005 production, he’s easily worth between 6-7 wins, over the replacement level player. That type of production would help the Giants out if he could play first. The Reds might do a Lowry + Sanchez deal, considering that they always seem to be crazy about bullpen help and getting better pitching. They seem to go back and forth on Dunn at times too, and I wonder if Josh Hamilton’s resurgence is enough to make them think that Dunn is tradeable?
May 8th, 2007 at 10:52 am
Here’s one more point about Dunn and a question for anyone else reading that’s into stats.
Heres the Giants 1B with WARP-1 ratings for years 2004-2006 and Dunn’s WARP-1 from those years.
Giants First Basemen
2004 J.T. Snow WARP 4.9
2004 Pedro Feliz WARP 3.2
2005 Lance Niekro WARP 1.4
2005 J.T. Snow WARP 1.7
2006 Lance Niekro WARP 0.6
2006 Shea Hillenbrand WARP 0.6 (Only his ABs from SF)
Adam Dunn
2004 Adam Dunn WARP 6.5
2005 Adam Dunn WARP 6.5
2006 Adam Dunn WARP 3.7
In 2004 the Giants actually got pretty good production from J.T. Snow’s fluke year where he hit .327 and had an OBP of .429, very solid numbers. 2005 was substantially worse and 2006 was a disaster.
Heres my stat queston, since WARP-1 takes into account fielding, and Dunn is such a butcher in LF, would his WARP-1 increase if he moved to 1B? Since it’s a less demanding position?
May 9th, 2007 at 11:20 am
First, I don’t agree 1B is less demanding defensively. I think it would be disastrous to bring in a guy who doesn’t want to play 1b, make him do it, and make him learn on the fly. Moving good athletes to 1B, like Nomar (a 3b), Aurilia (SS) is one thing. Bring in a defensively challenged OF is another entirely. Aurilia had the benefit of an entire ST, working with Snow to learn some of the nuances. Fielding bunts, making the throws in the IF, run downs, digging throws out of the dirt, foul pops are all important aspects of the game. We have 2 guys right now who do that very well. Dunn is likely to do it very poorly.
I am not against Dunn, but why do you think he is an upgrade over what we have (Aurilia + Klesko)? He’s hitting a Pedro-esqu 250 out of Cinci’s bandbox - at places like Pitt and Houston. Mopve him to the NL West, with 1/2 his games at ATT and another 19 at SD and LA and he’ll be lucky to hit 230 w/ 4 HRs in those parks. Is he likely to do better at Az and Colo? Sure, but so is Klesko. He is basically a replacement for Klesko. Is he an upgrade? Hard to say. Less defense, doesn’t want to play 1B, poorer OBP, lower BA. Higher SLG? Not when you factor in the NL West parks. And if he is an upgrade, he is not enough of an upgrade to trade for lowry, for example
May 9th, 2007 at 4:51 pm
I’ll respond to your points in order here.
Sure, first base has some subtleties, footwork and positioning, but it’s by and far the less demanding of the positions to play on the diamond. You’re area is limited to what you have to cover, you don’t have to throw the ball very far, and it’s almost always where players go who can’t play any other position. If you can catch the ball, you can play first around average in most cases.
You’re assuming that his poor defensive play in the OF would carry over to 1B, which isn’t really true from his defensive stats from 1B. He’s played 100 career games at 1B and his FRAA for each season in which he played some first hovers right around 0, suggesting he’s league average. Some years it’s -1, and others it’s been 1. He’s shown that he can play the position around league average and maybe some time spent with a player like J.T. Snow would only further progress him as a defender.
Don’t assume because Dunn is hitting .250 that Aurilia and Klesko are better than him because they have higher BA’s. We’ve had this discussion before but judging a player’s offensive skills by BA is foolish. If you look at Dunn’s OPS, a tried and true indicator of a good hitting player, it blows Klesko and Aurilia out of the water.
OPS for Dunn, Klesko, and Aurilia
2005 Klesko .776
2006 Klesko I’m not including this because he only had 6 PA’s
2007 Klesko .790
Career .878
2005 Aurilia .782
2006 Aurilia .867
2007 Aurilia .735
Career .774
2005 Dunn .927
2006 Dunn .855
2007 Dunn .933
Career .894
Dunn is a better offensive player that both Aurilia and Klesko. Klesko’s career OPS is still inflated by the years when he could actually hit and hit for power, he hasn’t legitimately hit for power since 2002. In fact, vintage Klesko is somewhat similar to Adam Dunn, high OBP, good power. Klesko hit for a higher average but Dunn has hit for more power.
As for the comment about Dunn hitting in a band box, I think thats ridiculous. He’ll hit HR’s wherever he plays, put him in the Grand Canyon and he’ll still be hitting balls 450+. The Giants would improve greatly by acquiring Dunn.