Hitting For Dummies
Posted by Chris - 26/04/07 at 09:04 amAfter a terrible 2-7 start, the Giants have channeled the spirit of the 2005 Washington Nationals and have gone 8-1 since. The 2005 Washington Nationals had a great first half success, winning games by the combination of solid starting pitching and timely hitting. Sound familiar? The Giants are walking this very same tightrope, straddling the line between a poor offense and great pitching. In 2005 the Nationals had 3 pitchers finish with ERA’s under 4.00 (Livan Hernandez, Esteban Loiaza, and John Patterson). They finished with a record of 81-81, which included a 2nd half crash and burn.
The Giants rank 15th in the NL in runs scored with 69, only 1 run ahead of the last place team, the Nats. On the pitching side of things, the Giants rank 3rd in ERA and 1st in fewest runs given up.
The question that hangs in the air is “Is this how good the offense actually is? Or will it get better?” Optimists would tell you that the offense still isn’t clicking on all cylinders. Durham hasn’t hit his stride, and if he can get going he should boost the offense. Todd Linden, who most hoped could be a valuable contributer to the O, is still struggling. It seems a bit much to expect Bonds and Aurilia to carry this team.
Top 5 Giants EQA Rankings
- Barry Bonds (.395) – Currently ranked as the best LF in the National League in terms of EQA, Bonds is doing it all. Hitting for average, power, and getting on base. His legs look rejuvenated and his overall game has been strong.
- Rich Aurilia (.281) – The 35 year old Aurilia has been the second best hitter to Barry. I can’t complain too much, Rich has done a nice job but his brittle nature concerns me. If he goes down with any sort of injury Pedro Feliz’s playing time will increase greatly.
- Bengie Molina (.274) – He’s a better hitter than Matheny. I’ve been happy with Molina’s performance so far, he hasn’t blown us away but he also hasn’t totally sucked either.
- Ray Durham (.265) – Where’s the power at Ray? Durham’s power hasn’t showed up yet and it’s a little concerning. After slugging .538 in 2006, Durham is only slugging .406 right now. He only has 4 2Bs, 1 3B, and 1 HR in 69 ABs.
- Dave Roberts (.259) – Roberts is another slow starter on the Giants hitting only (.230/.288/.377). He’s stealing bases, 7 for 7, but his OBP is very Pedro-esque.
The Giants are going to need the offense to pick up if they want to keep winning games. Bonds is doing it all right now. The pitching has been great but I don’t like the chances of Morris, Lowry, and Ortiz continuing their early success over the course of a full season. They continue to walk too many hitters and eventually it’ll catch up with them.
Comment Starter: How to improve the offense? Would you deal some pitching to try and aquire a young bat? And if so, who?
April 27th, 2007 at 11:04 am
A few comments. First, While the offense is not Mets like, if you subtract the first 9 games, when they really weren’t hitting, and just look at the past 11 games, there is little to complain about. Over that period, they are scoring almost 5 runs a game (4.90), a rate that = 795 over the course of the season. And taht is against the 9th, 7th, 5th, and 3d best (ERA) staffs in the NL. And that is before certain guys have warmed up (Roberts, Omar, Winn [altho Winn may have started to warm up - he had 5 hits in the LA series]).
Second, I think you damn Benji with faint praise. Jesus, what more could the guy do? He’s getting clutch hits, hitting 300, and he’s a big part of the pitching success.
Third, I don’t think Ray’s power numbers are “concerning.” A lot of guys don’t really get into a grove until the weather gets hot. What is important is that Ray gets clutch hits, not hits to pad his average when we’re way up or way down. He has done that.
I am much less worried about Roberts than I am about Omar. I think Roberts will be fine and will be very close to his career average. I think Omar will, too, but his slow start seems to be hanging around. He has had some off years, so I hope this isn’t one of them.
April 27th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
Hi Frank,
1) Why should we eliminate the bad games? Don’t they count too? It’s like saying “We’re 9-0 when Barry Zito throws 9 innings of shut-out ball” The bad games count too and help to give us a measure of what the team can and can’t do. To just throw them out doesn’t make any sense. The offense is most likely going to be a problem this year, Bonds is one of four hitters OPS+ing over league average right now. Bonds, Durham, Aurilia, and Molina are the top hitters on the team right now, after those guys, it really drops off a cliff. Molina has only OPS+’d over 100 twice before this year in 8 seasons.
2) Molina has been good and I’m not trying to take anything away from him but I have a hard time counting on him for offensive contributions regularly. I’ll give you this, he’s one of the better hitting catchers we’ve had in awhile, but after Matheny that’s not hard to say. Also, batting average is a hugely overrated stat. Hitting 300 isn’t a good indicator of a good offensive player.
3) Like I said above, the Giants will need Ray’s power production. Without it, it’s going to be a long year. I think its foolish to think otherwise. I know it’s still early for Ray. I’m not writing him off yet, he’s looked great on the defensive end. Statements about warm weather hitters, frankly scare me, because it’s stuff that Dusty used to tout.