That Barry Guy Returns

Published by on January 29, 2007 | 3 Responses

I don’t know if you’ve heard of him or not but the Giants just signed this guy named Barry Bonds…

The AP reports that Barry Bonds has passed his physical and has finalized his deal with the Giants. This is what I expected to happen after all and I didn’t put much stock in the theory that the Giants would back away from Bonds after his amphetamine troubles surfaced. The biggest news in the deal is that Bonds’ entourage is no longer welcome in the clubhouse. Sorry guys, no more cozy lockers for you. Under the deal Bonds is set to earn 15.8 million with the chance for another 4.2 million if he can reach certain performance clauses. Somewhere out there Todd Linden is bummed.

The Giants need Barry’s bat. They really need his bat. In 2006 the Giants, as a team, ranked 13/16 in the NL based on OPS. Removing Bonds from the team and all of the sudden things start to look scary. Pittsburgh Pirates scary and thats just frightening. Barry was one of the best hitters for the Giants in ’06 and chances are that if he can avoid any injuries he’ll be one of the best hitters in 2007. After struggling in the first half Barry looked, well, more like Barry in the second half putting up a line of (.292/.430/.596). Greenies, warmer weather, ocean current patterns, or whatever you want to attribute it to, Barry looked much better but can he carry that 2nd half surge into ’07?

Maybe, both PECOTA and ZiPS peg Bonds to put up numbers similar to last year.

By the way, ZiPS projects that Bonds will hit 21 home runs putting him exactly at 755. Which would be cosmically hilarious if it happens.

So there you have it. Another year with Barry Bonds manning left field. Hobbling around and hopefully smacking the occasional dinger. I am still not quite sure how I feel about the whole thing yet. The feelings of confusion are almost becoming a mandatory emotion for Giants fans. On one hand, the Giants need the production because surely it isn’t coming from Linden. On the other hand, as Bonds ever so slightly creeps toward Hank Aaron’s record the media is just going to go ape shit. In fact so much so that the Giants should offer a promotion for home games. Free cotton candy and candied apples to all those who come out to the park because its going to be a circus.

We can throw our candied apples at Pedro Gomez, it’ll be fun.

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fttts
fttts

Chris, what I noticed about Bonds in the first half last year is that he could not plant AND rotate around his front foot. Insteead, he was coming up on his heel as he swung and it looked really awful - and devoid of power. By August, he was doing what he has historically done, planted his front foot really solidly, then swinging around it. I haven't seen him, but AI hear he is in much better condition this year and, hopefully, the knee is more stable and less tender.

Chris
Chris

Howdy Frank, I hope that you're right that Barry's first half woes were related to rust. His bat looked noticeably slower for the first part of last year. I'd never seen him get beat on so many pitches inside, where as years before he would punish them with authority. He did come to life some in the second half. As for PECTOA and ZiPS they give decent ideas of how a player might perform. There is always a chance that the player can beat the projection and Bonds could do that if he is healthy and his decline last year had more to do with his health problems than aging skills. PECOTA just isn't guessing at what Barry might hit this year, its a fairly complex system that takes into account many factors to asses a players performance. It's considered to be the best system for projecting hitters. It still misses the ball sometimes but more often than not its pretty close to what a player actually does. Regardless, I would be happy with a .270/.450/.500.

fttts
fttts

This is, I think, an instance where PECOTA or ZIPS aren't really apt tools. There is no mathematical tool available at this point that will correctly factor in Barry's missed season and his poor 1st half in '06. I would expect Barry to be between 280 and 310 in BA, with corresponding increases in OPS and Slugging